Mid semester course evaluations response Discussion of Meko et al (2007) reading focus questions Introduction to EdGCM and HW7 worktime HW7 due
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1 GEOL 437 Global Climate Change 3/15/18: Discussion of Meko et al (2007); Introduction to EdGCM (HW7) Mid semester course evaluations response Discussion of Meko et al (2007) reading focus questions Introduction to EdGCM and HW7 worktime HW7 due 3/29/18 at start of class
2 Tree ring data: the archive Source: Fritts, 1976; image from Woodhouse and Bauer, NOAA Paleoclimatology, Paleo Slide Set: Tree Rings: Ancient Chronicles of Environmental Change,
3 Tree ring data: the archive Source: E.R. Cook, Coring huon pine (Lagarostrobus franklinii) in Tasmania; mounted huon pine (Lagarostrobus franklinii) core samples; D.W. Stahle, Baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) in Bayou DeView, Arkansas. Images from Woodhouse and Bauer, NOAA Paleoclimatology, Paleo Slide Set: Tree Rings: Ancient Chronicles of Environmental Change,
4 Tree ring data: the archive Source:NOAA Paleoclimatology webpages Webmapper accessed 6/18/2008,
5 Tree ring data: observations Source: E. Sutherland, USFS, Measuring a tree-ring core on a moveable-stage microscope.; image from Woodhouse and Bauer, NOAA Paleoclimatology, Paleo Slide Set: Tree Rings: Ancient Chronicles of Environmental Change, CF-IRMS laboratory at Arizona (M.N. Evans); Lignoscan device,
6 Tree ring data: chronology development Source: LTRR/UA, Extending a chronology based on living trees further back in time through crossdating; image from Woodhouse and Bauer, NOAA Paleoclimatology, Paleo Slide Set: Tree Rings: Ancient Chronicles of Environmental Change,
7 Generalized sensor model R(t) = A(t) +C(t) + δe(t) + δd(t) + ε(t) Source: H.D. Grissino-Mayer, Principles and Definitions of dendrochronology, The Ultimate Tree-Ring Web Pages, web. utk.edu/~grissino/; H.D. Grissino- Mayer, Fir cross section, scienceline.org/2007/03/20/ipcc-driscoll-treerings; C. Woodhouse, Observed & reconstructed number of precipitation days in winter, northern Arizona & New Mexico, NOAA Paleoclimatology, Paleo Slide Set: Tree Rings: Ancient Chronicles of Environmental Change, paleo/slides/slideset/18/18_370_bslide.html; Wikipedia, Western Spruce budworm, upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/ 5/5f/Wsprucebudworm.jpg; Oregon Dept. of Forestry, bird's eye view of a tree blowdown, ODF/images/Winter_Storm_2007/a.jpg
8 Example: paleoclimate from tree ring width data Southern Colorado Plateau paleoclimate reconstructions from Salzer and Kipfmueller (2005)
9 Summary Trees are an important growing-season, annual-resolution paleoclimatic archive, with a sensor that can be used to develop reconstructions of moisture and/or temperature. Principal strengths are in replication depth and dating precision. Principal uncertainties are in the interpretation of tree-ring data for paleoclimate reconstruction, because of a low signal:noise ratio, multiple possible climate and non climatic influences on growth fluctuations. Next: Discussion of Meko et al. (2007)
10 GEOL 437 Global Climate Change 3/13/18: Introduction to Paleoclimatology Key Concepts Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) Radiative forcing Experimental simulation Control simulation
11 Meet EdGCM (HW 5-10; term projects) EdGCM webpages, accessed 3/02/2009
12 EdGCM under the hood EdGCM: 8 x 10 degree resolution = 7776 atmospheric grid cells temporal resolution = 15 min (96 steps/day, ~2880/month) Chandler and Marti, EdGCM Workshop Guide, L. Sohl, M. Chandler, pers. comm., 2/28/09
13 EdGCM under the hood Hansen et al. 1983, 1990; Chandler and Marti, EdGCM Workshop Guide, L. Sohl, M. Chandler, pers. comm., 2/28/09
14 What are climate models good for?
15 What are climate models good for? Conceptual frameworks: Climate sensitivity, feedback diagnostics Hypothesis generation, validation/hindcast, and prediction/forecast Understanding paleoclimates: last century, last millennium, LGM, Pliocene, Snowball Earth... Scenario B ( Business As Usual ) prediction, 2017: ~ 1.1 o C Observations ( ): ~ 0.9 o C; Notes and figures courtesy G.A. Schmidt, What good are climate models?, lecture given at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, 4/20/2007, pers. comm. 2/28/09 global mean annual T, giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, acc 3/12/18
16 What are climate models not good for?
17 What are climate models not good for? Results not observed in other models or in observations Results lacking clear physical mechanisms Regional, single grid point, or subgrid-scale dependencies Small net effects from complex balances between competing effects Notes courtesy G.A. Schmidt, What good are climate models?, lecture given at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, 4/20/2007; pers. comm., 2/28/09 (incl. Doonesbury cartoon used to make a different point)
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