Maine SBW Outbreak Assessment, Preparation & Response Strategy

Transcription

1 Maine SBW Outbreak Assessment, Preparation & Response Strategy Wood Supply Task Team Bob Wagner (Chair, UMaine), Chris Hennigar (UNB), Aaron Weiskittel (UMaine), Ken Laustsen (MFS), Ernest Boling (Sewall), William McWilliams (FIA), Peter Triandafillou (Huber), Jeff Benjamin (UMaine), John Bryant (AFM), Ked Coffin (JDI), Mark Doty (Plum Creek), Eric Dumond (ReEnergy), Gordon Gamble (Wagner), John Kolenick (P&C), Eugene Mahar (Landvest), Ian Prior (7-Islands), Dan Smith (Northwoods), Pat Sirois (MFPC), Joel Swanton (FRA), John Williams (MPPA) NERCOFE Workshop University of Maine Orono, ME March 10, 2014

2 Two New SBW Impact Studies CFRU Report, Nov 2013, Hennigar, MacLean, & Erdle NSRC Report, Jul 2013, Legaard, Simons-Legaard, Wilson, & Sader

3 Legaard et al. NSRC Study

4 Methods Used Landsat satellite images and FIA data to map current forest conditions on 10 million acres by Tree species Age structure SBW vulnerability Used LANDIS-II forest landscape model to represents forest as grid of cells assigned to tree species and forest age Estimated aboveground biomass based on stand age, species maximum productivity, and maximum aboveground biomass. Emulated SBW dynamics using Biological Disturbance Agent (BDA) in LANDIS-II Emulated recent forest harvesting using Biomass Harvest extension in LANDIS-II Projected tree species biomass trends.

5 SBW Risk & Impact in LANDIS-II

6 SBW Risk Map From LANDIS-II Water/no data Non-host forest Mixed with red/black spruce Mixed with fir/white spruce Red/black spruce Young fir/white spruce Mature fir/white spruce

7 Projected Spruce-fir Biomass Impacts From SBW Moderate outbreak Severe outbreak No outbreak Our projections suggest that the combination of natural mortality and salvage harvesting will cause a 15-30% decline in spruce-fir biomass during the outbreak(s) followed by slow recovery.

8 Hennigar et al. CFRU Study

9 Characterized s SBW Aerial sketch maps of defoliation digitized from Maine Forest Service reports: Defoliation in Maine

10 Characterized s SBW Population Trends in Maine Used SBW egg-mass density patterns to produce compiled spatiotemporal coverage of all survey years.

11 Hennigar et al. Methods Customized NB SBW Decision Support System (SBW-DSS) for Maine. Developed non-spatial timber supply model for Maine using: FIA data, FVS-NE projections, Typical silviculture systems, & SBW outbreak and defoliation-impact relationships.

12 Projected Wood Supply Impacts Baseline initial 12% reduction Percent of current spruce-fir harvest Historic Outbreak % max reduction Historic Outbreak % max reduction Impact estimate insensitive to outbreak timing, suggesting low level of host species composition changes between now and 2043

13 Good Agreement Between Two Studies! 15-30% decline in spruce-fir harvest volume 15-30% decline in spruce-fir biomass CFRU Report, Nov 2013, Hennigar, MacLean, & Erdle NSRC Report, Jul 2013, Legaard, Simons-Legaard, Wilson, & Sader

14 Mitigation Options Tested No Management = No response to SBW outbreak Harvest Replanning = Redesigned harvest plan to reduce area of susceptible stands Bt Protection = Aerial application of Bacillus thuringiensis to 20% of susceptible area Partial Salvage = Harvest live, dead, or dying fir and spruce through group or single tree method Salvage = Clearcut live, dead, or dying fir and spruce

15 Summary of 1970s-80s SBW Outbreak on Current and Future Forest With Mitigation Options Spruce-fir baseline harvest change (%) No mitigation Replan Replan + 20% Bt Replan + 20% Bt + Partial Salvage Replanning + 20% Bt + Salvage Impact over 40 years from outbreak start Cumulative Maximum

16 SBW Outbreak Same as 1970s-80s Potential Maximum Annual Wood Supply Impact on Balsam Fir and Spruce relative to Harvest Levels Management Response: % Cubic Feet (millions) Cord (millions) No Management = -27.6% With Replanning = -18.6% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection = -10.1% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection + Partial Salvage = -11.3% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection + Salvage = 0.0% Probability = LOW

17 SBW Outbreak Same as 1970s-80s Potential Cumulative Wood Supply Impact on Balsam Fir and Spruce relative to Harvest Levels Management Response: % Cubic Feet (millions) Cord (millions) No Management = -17.8% With Replanning = -10.4% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection = -4.3% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection + Partial Salvage = -3.6% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection + Salvage = 2.8% year impact Probability = LOW

18 SBW Outbreak 50% of 1970s-80s Potential Maximum Annual Wood Supply Impact on Balsam Fir and Spruce relative to Harvest Levels Management Response: Probability = HIGHER % Cubic Feet (millions) Cord (millions) No Management = -13.8% With Replanning = -9.3% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection = -5.1% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection + Partial Salvage = -5.7% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection + Salvage = 0.0%

19 SBW Outbreak 50% of 1970s-80s Potential Cumulative Wood Supply Impact on Balsam Fir and Spruce relative to Harvest Levels Management Response: % Cubic Feet (millions) Cord (millions) No Management = -8.9% With Replanning = -5.2% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection = -2.2% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection + Partial Salvage = -1.8% With Replanning + 20% Bt Protection + Salvage = 1.4% year impact Probability = HIGHER

20 Possible Overestimation of SBW Impacts SBW-DSS based on New Brunswick / Nova Scotia impacts by tree species Old CFRU data suggests that these impacts may be overestimated for Maine fir and spruce New NSRC Study! Source: Mohammad Bataineh, CFRU

21 Likely Overestimation of Mitigation Benefits Harvest re-planning assumed to be perfect in model Stands spatially unavailable Stands, if available, may be uneconomical to harvest due to small diameters Salvage assumed to be perfect in model High impact areas may be spatially unavailable Partial salvage may not be viable in many circumstances Clearcut salvage cutting may become politically unavailable

22 Thank You!