Right forests for the right purpose in the right place supporting the new one billion trees initiative. Tim Payn

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1 Right forests for the right purpose in the right place supporting the new one billion trees initiative Tim Payn

2 Acknowledgements GCFF programme Duncan Harrison 1, Barbara Hock 2, Dean Meason, Mike Watt, Richard Yao Our Land and Water National Science Challenge: Te Hiku programme - Les Dowling, Tanira Kingi, Juan Monge Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change programmes Andrew Dunningham, Steve Wakelin, Graham West 3 Planted Indigenous Forestry slides Greg Steward Climate Slides Nathanael Melia 1 Ministry for Primary Industries 2 Candleford Ltd 3 Graham West Land Use Solutions Ltd

3 The UNFCCC Paris Agreement 1 New Zealand has signed up to the objective of the Paris Agreement, of: holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C... and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C. 1 At Paris, New Zealand offered to reduce emissions 30% by 2030 from a baseline of Actual total emissions +21.3% over 1990 levels. 3 New Zealand has the freedom to decide the best domestic policies to meet these targets, consistent with the UNFCCC. 2 2 Simon Upton Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment. A Zero Carbon Act for New Zealand, (March 2018). 3 MfE. New Zealand s Greenhouse Gas Inventory , (April 2015).

4 The role of trees and forests in climate mitigation Replace GHG emitting livestock Store Carbon in forest biomass Substitute for liquid fossil fuels and coal Store Carbon in long lived wood products Substitute for GHG intensive materials such as steel and concrete Planted Forests also provide many other ecosystem service benefits

5 Planted forest expansion or intensification is a major global climate mitigation opportunity

6 1 billion trees will go a long way to meeting our Paris targets onebillion trees overview infographic

7 New carbon forests will have many other benefits INPUTS Land People Values Plants Energy Sunshine Soil Water FOREST OUTPUTS Producing Timber Pulp and Paper Energy Food Water supply Biodiversity $5 6bn/yr New products, markets, income Regulating GHG mitigation Water quality Erosion control Flood mitigation Pollution control Cultural Aesthetics Wellbeing Recreation Up to 5 x the timber value

8 Using our research we can:

9 Increase the carbon in our existing forests GCFF programme Potential Current Climate Soil Genetics Stocking 18% or 317,000 ha below its potential Δ Carbon?

10 Develop new forest types that are quite different to our existing estate Plantations of indigenous species Riparians, small woodlots, or wind breaks Infill forests Energy forests Transition from pine to permanent cover Urban forests

11 Predict carbon fixation for different species Exotic species Indigenous

12 Use frameworks and tools to put the forests in the right place: Land Assessment FIF Forecaster Forest Profiles BSM FOLPI Processing Options Woodscape Value Chains Primary Value Chains Model Regional Impacts CGE I/O Socio-Cultural Aspirations/Priorities Social Licence/Perceptions

13 Forest Investment Framework (FIF)

14 Forecaster & FIF Match forestry options to land characteristics and geospatial limits (e.g. distance to mills, ports etc.) Produce carbon, farm economics and emissions profiles for status quo and proposed land use change Integrate into a whole farm assesment complementary land use

15 Economics Infrastructure Regulation Employment Community Markets 1 billion trees Productivity Health and Safety Forest Health Soil and Water Biodiversity Climate and Carbon THINGS TO CONSIDER WITH THE BILLION TREES AVOID TENSIONS, UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES!

16 Scientific and Policy Challenges Designing new forest types for new lands ETS settings to capture maximum carbon Integrated land use modelling Multi criteria analysis Spatial and temporal Systems approaches to avoid unintended consequences Application of sustainability frameworks Apples with apples economics Complementary land uses Forest : Community interface the human dimension Perceptions Fears and concerns Social License

17 Thank You! Professor Tim Payn Chair of Sustainable Forestry Date: 4 th April 2018