Lloyd C. Irland The Irland Group Maine DOC /5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
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1 Lloyd C. Irland The Irland Group Maine DOC /5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
2 Outline Intro Things have Changed Industry Forest Institutional/political landscape List of Issues Still much to learn What next? Some suggested tasks 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
3 What happened We sprayed a cum. Total approx 18 million acres, some multiple times. Salvage cutting extensive Did a lot of research Estimated loss very large 20 MM cords? Learned that measuring the loss is not straightfoward In response we upgraded a LOT of things 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
4 The Industry is different now 4 or 5 major dimension mills Hardwood lumber/veneer under severe pressure (imports) Paper industry shift to hardwood Market/cost pressures severe Logging equipment/biomass markets 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
5 Wood Mix is Radically different Ratios of Spruce fir Stumpage to Hardwood pulp; Spruce to Pine logs sawlogs pulpwood /5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
6 Real Spruce fir stumpage prices, Real Dollars, per M or Cord Sawlogs Pulpwood /5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
7 Source: Ken Laustsen, MFS 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
8 Logging has Changed 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
9 Logs got smaller Biomass tonnage exceeded sawlogs in one recent year! 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
10 The Biggest Difference: Though the mid-80 s, the industry paper and lumber had reasons for optimism as to future demand prospects Post-2000 upheavals and revisions to outlook: Effects both practical and psychological! 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
11 Forest has Changed 1976: fir thicket Mid 90 s: planted intensively managed 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
12 Separate spruce and fir inventory volumes (million cords) Spruces Balsam Fir Source: Ken Laustsen, MFS 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
13 Some Differences: Forest The Forest is Different in: Composition Margin of safety growth /cut Age & uniformity vs dispersion of stands Seeing staminate cones yet? Million acres of intensive management how long will they last? In Newfoundland, budworm demolished dense, in-the-open regen not allowed, acc. to the experts! How much difference does all this make it s different in PQ too Year Percent Fir % % % % % % % Source: Ken Laustsen, MFS 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
14 Forest - different But some things much improved Roads go everywhere Equipment/markets handle wider range of species, sizes, quality Our inventories & type maps are much better Modelling capabilities no longer mysteries for gurus many landowners can do it 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
15 What s the age class diagram look like now? 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
16 Institutional Landscape Very Different DOC is different: smaller staff, esp FIDM specialists USFS different: fires burning up its budget Landownership is different TIMO s WSA s Easements Political landscape very different 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
17 Some Pleasant Surprises Duration of outbreak shorter than we thought Debate: does spraying prolong outbreaks? Scale of inventory decline overestimated by early models Need to understand why Expected increase in fires did not occur We were wrong on all of these! Hindsight always /5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
18 Issues Expert modellers: you started to spray too late! Forest lost vigor, no resilience Experience shows you don t always get great results Double apps looked a lot better We sprayed ground with little or no host type 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
19 Issues, cont. Spray was a broad brush treatment, not a prescribed treatment Probably necessarily so Access Markets Uniform forest condition Project Sizes Spray periods always shorter, fewer than we expected 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
20 Airplanes Gallonage, Speed, Range, Power Not Always equivalent to work done per day or spray period We learned to like small Agile Available in numbers Low & Slow Close to blocks 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
21 Not killing bugs Mission of Spraying Strong knockdown, long residual of DDT may have misled us But protecting foliage which is actually harder Cannot prevent all mortality Small patches Skips/misses Unfavorable weather 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
22 Spray by Prescription Spraying should be by prescription as part of management regime for stands/areas Protect stand vigor, not inventory volume Not townships at a time. Current capabilities allow this Will mean more temp. airfields, more ferry time to blocks 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
23 Spraying Costs Some favor double apps of Bt Alternatives? Costs noted at $16 to $30 per acre Annual growth in s-fir might be $18 to $50/A/yr Question is, for how many years? Spraying likely to be for specialized situations 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
24 If we Spray, it won t look like this! (1979) 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
25 Silviculture: Observations and Unresolved dilemmas Silviculture when the needles are already brown is too late Budworm loves fir thickets But also likes deep, full crowns of thinned stands Spruce/fir grow well in mixedwoods and are less vulnerable to SBW - but have been stripped out of much of this type 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
26 Silviculture Risk-rating and treating high risk stands probably helps Beats chasing salvage after stands accumulate dead/dying/low vigor trees Fir- only cuts were tried - did they help? Net effect on regeneration? On many sites, partial cuts in dense stands always risky -- SBW or not 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
27 Paying the bills Costs for management/operations of program Survey & Detection Insecticide testing/registration Research in general, and environmental monitoring Spraying We never found a way to share these costs that satisfied everybody! 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
28 You get warning if you re watching! 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
29 Some Tasks Sketch Environmental Assessment Sketch Operational/Management assessment Interview veterans capture their experience with silviculture/management post SBW SBW Research Conference joint at ECANUSA? Anyway -- SOON Junior Insect Ranger idea Audit early warning capabilities 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
30 Conclusions/lessons from 70 s 80 s experience? With such large changes, what remains relevant? We are generalizing from a sample of one! Apologies to the Seton Sign Co. 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
31 The scientists will disagree! Send me a onearmed economist B. t. example there will be many more 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
32 Thanks for your kind attention Questions/comments? 3/5/2014 NERCOFE Orono, ME March
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