March 9, 2010 Spokane INGY

Transcription

1 FVS-Introduction Representing climate change in the Forest Vegetation Simulator Emphasis on genetics issues Nicholas L. Crookston with Jerry Rehfeldt and many others Rocky Mountain Research Station March 9, 2010 Spokane INGY

2 FVS-Introduction Contents I. Introduction to FVS Model design elements, content, and flow II. Climate Change Future climate and species distributions Elements of Climate-FVS Three examples III. Discussion (genetics).

3 FVS-Introduction I. Introduction to FVS FVS is used to compare management alternatives intended to meet landowner objectives. FVS is a distance-independent, individual-tree forest growth model widely used in the United States. Temporal scope is often 1.5 rotations ~150 yrs, at 5 or 10 year increments.

4 FVS-Introduction Introduction to FVS continued Stands are the basic unit of management; growth projections are dependent on interactions between trees within stands. Existing inventory methods are used to gather input data. Initial estimates of volume and growth are consistent with estimates calculated with other tools.

5 FVS-Introduction Introduction to FVS continued FVS is applicable in all forest types and stand conditions encountered in the inventory. Growth measurements are incorporated into projections using a self-calibration feature. Extensions model the impact of disturbancecausing agents (fire, insects, and disease) and support economic analysis.

6 FVS-Introduction Introduction to FVS continued FVS incorporates growth measurements into projections (contains a self-calibration feature). Extensions to FVS model the impact of disturbance-causing agents (fire, insects, and disease) and support economic analysis.

7 II. Climate Change and FVS Contents: Modeling species-climate profiles Adding profiles and other climate data in to FVS. Representing genetic effects on growth within the range of a species. Illustration of simulated results.

8 Modeling species climate-profiles Build contemporary climate surfaces Get predictions of climate for each FIA plot in the western United States. Use Random Forest classification to build a predictive model of the species climate profile (climate-based species viability). To map the profile: predict the viability for each 1 km pixel in the Western United States.

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10 Douglas-fir contemporary climate 50-75% > Mapped at 1 km 2 grid

11 Future climate and species distributions Build future climate surfaces using outputs from 3 global circulation models (GCM), run using 2 or 3 emission scenarios to form 7 futures. Predict and map the species viability for the future climates for three future points in time: 2030, 2060, and 2090.

12 Douglas-fir climate profile location change (current to 2060) new recede stays

13 Aspen climate profile location change (current to 2060) new recede stays

14 Details in: Rehfeldt et al Empirical analysis of plant-climate relationships for the western United States. Int. J. Plant Sci. 167(6):

15 Elements of Climate-FVS Architecture and input Species composition Mortality Establishment Site carrying capacity Tree growth Genetics Site Index

16 Species composition Mortality rates increase when the viability score fall below This threshold gives species the benefit of doubt: there is virtually no evidence that species grow in the climates with such low viability scores.

17 Species composition Establishment: Triggered by low stocking. Add the most viable species, add more trees per acre of the most viable species. Does not represent migration, it is intended to provide a suggested set of species to consider. Does not answer the key question: What do I plant and where do I get the seeds?

18 Tree growth: Site Site index was modeled as a function of climate for the western US. An proportionate change in site index results in corresponding change in growth. This component assumes that the growing stock is reasonably adapted to the site. It is the environmental effect (with some genetics).

19 Site Index: current and predicted change on FIA plots.

20 Tree growth: Genetics Basic idea: use common garden data to calibrate growth models as a function of climate transfer distance the difference in climate at the planting site and the seed source.

21 Douglas-fir height growth MAT at seed source: -2 C MAT at seed source: 2 C MAT at seed source: 4 C MAT at seed source: 8 C Mean temp. of the coldest month transfer distance (⁰C) moved to colder climates moved to warmer climates Laura Leites, University of Idaho

22 Leites model normalized for use in FVS

23 Tree growth: Genetics The base FVS calculation for contemporary climate is adjusted by an estimated proportionate change in growth rate. We have models for Douglas-fir, larch, and ponderosa pine. This is the genetics effect or the genetics environment interaction.

24 Examples One hundred year simulation Output total carbon and basal area by species Eight results: Base FVS (use the modified model with contemporary climate fixed over time) 7 GCM/SRES model/scenario combinations

25 Three examples West Cascades Clearwater River Black Mesa

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32 Differences between examples Impact differs between locations: Black Mesa: IPCC A2 scenarios from the Canadian and GFDL models exhibit greatest impact. Clearwater: Hadley model for A2 and B2 scenarios exhibit the greatest impact. West Cascades: Low impact (but maybe false!).

33 Discussion The magnitude of predicted climate change during the expected lifetime of existing trees is large enough that it requires consideration. The effects on these changes must be accounted for at the species level and for some species at the population level. Maybe all species need to be modeled at the population species.

34 Discussion continued The species climate profile models do not take into account how competition has influence range (realize verses potential niche). I m not satisfied. My list of problems with this work is huge. Yet, I don t see other approaches as being better and we need to provide tools foresters can use to start considering the major climate change factors. Site is changing.

35 A growth modeler s needs Climate profile models done at the provenance level for wild-spread species. Requires subdividing the species presence/absence data. Experimental evidence (with large sample sizes) of how trees from various provenances grow and survive when growing in climates like those expected in our future. Similar information is needed to answer: What do I plant and where do I get the seeds?

36 Our climate web site has supporting information and access to custom climate predictions: climate

37 Acknowledgements Funded by: USFS Global Climate Change Research Program and the Rocky Mountain Research Station. Many people attended workshops where ideas were openly discussed: Aaron Weiskittel, Abdel-Azim Zumrawi, Albert Stage, Ann Abbot, Bill Wykoff, Bob Monserud, Brad StClair, Bryce Richardson, Colin Daniel, Dave Cawrse, Dave Marshall, David Loftis, Dennis Ferguson, Don Robinson, Doug Berglund, Doug Maguire, Erin Smith-Mateja, Fred Martin, Gary Dixon, Glenn Howe, John Goodburn, John Marshall, Kelsey Milner, Laura Leites, Linda Joyce, Mee-Sook Kim, Megan Roessing, Mike Bevers, Mike Ryan, Peter Gould, Phil Radtke, Robert Froese, and Stephanie Rebain.