Climate and Vegetation Change in the Northwest Forest Plan Area. Matthew Reilly, Thomas Spies, Jeremy Littell, John Kim, and Ramona Butz

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1 Introduction Peter Stine and Thomas Spies In 1994, the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) Record of Decision amended and provided direction to 19 national forest and 7 Bureau of Land Management resource plans within the range of the northern spotted owl with the goal of maintaining healthy forest ecosystems alongside sustainable, predictable supplies of timber and other forest products. The NWFP encompasses 24 million acres of federal land managed by the Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service in Washington, Oregon, and northwest California. Central to the NWFP was a robust monitoring and research program, initiated at a regional scale to address important questions about older forests, listed species (northern spotted owls, marbled murrelets), watershed health, federal agency relationships with Tribes, and changing socioeconomic conditions in communities closely tied to federal lands. The U. S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest (OR, WA) and Pacific Southwest (CA) Regions have requested a synthesis to provide a thorough, up-to-date review of the relevant scientific literature pertaining to key resource management topics within the NWFP area. This synthesis is being prepared to provide a scientific foundation for future plan revision efforts. We provide detailed reviews of the relevant scientific literature on key topics and focused questions that pertain to the NWFP landscape. Climate and Vegetation Change in the Northwest Forest Plan Area Matthew Reilly, Thomas Spies, Jeremy Littell, John Kim, and Ramona Butz This chapter will focus on the past, present, and projected future climate scenarios in the Northwest Forest Plan Area. We review the regional climate setting and introduce the dominant potential vegetation zones and ecoregions as a framework to provide biogeographical context for discussion in following chapters. We synthesize our current scientific understanding on past and present climate change then describe common tools for projecting future climate. The results of several studies projecting future climate scenarios are summarized and compared among each other and across the region. We discuss mechanisms of forest change (e.g. drought, fire, insects) then review common models used to project vegetation response and synthesize projected vegetation change from several studies. After a review of uncertainties in projections of climate and vegetation change across the region, we identify key climate change impacts and vulnerabilities and discuss potential strategies for mitigation and adaptation given projected climate change effects. 1. What are the past, current, and future projected patterns of climate change and how do they vary around the region? 2. What are the major tools for projecting climate change and what are the associated uncertainties and limitations?

2 3. What are the major tools for projecting vegetation response to climate change and what are the associated uncertainties and limitations? 4. What are our most vulnerable ecosystems, species, and resources due to climate change? 5. What are the key adaptation strategies that could mitigate these vulnerabilities? Old-Growth and Forest Dynamics Thomas Spies, Thomas A. Spies (FS PNW), Raymond J Davis (FS R6), Paul Hessburg (FS PNW), Jane Kertis (FS R6), Klaus Puettmann (OSU), Matthew Reilly (OSU), Carl Skinner (Retired FS PSW) (Order yet to be determined) This chapter will focus on the current scientific understanding of the ecology, conservation, and restoration/resilience of old-growth forest ecosystems and other successional stages. Because old growth is just one stage of forest succession, the chapter will examine succession and ecological processes that drive forest development including fire, insects, disease, and climate. The chapter will characterize how the dynamic mosaic of old-growth and other successional stages (especially early seral) varies at landscape and regional scales and explore what is known about the effects of management, wildfire, and climate change on old-growth ecosystems and successional patterns and processes. The chapter will identify uncertainties, evaluate scientific disagreements and discuss relevance of the science to the goals of conservation, restoration and resilience in the face of global change and disturbance agents. 1. What are the structure, dynamics and historical range of variation in old growth, how does it differ from other successional stages (e.g., early successional), and how do these characteristics differ by forest type and disturbance regime? 2. What are the ecosystem service values associated with different stages of forest succession? 3. What are the threats to conserving and restoring the different types of old-growth and other important successional stages? 4. What are the needs for old-growth conservation (e.g., amount, connectivity, resilience to disturbance and climate change) and relative merits of different conservation strategies for old growth including reserves and dynamic landscape approaches? 5. What are alternative approaches to restoration and the role of history in setting restoration goals, and how do the needs and ecological effects of restoration differ by stand conditions, age, forest type, disturbance regime and spatial scale? 6. What are potential effects of climate change on vegetation and processes (e.g., succession and disturbance) that regulate the amount, type, and pattern of successional stages?

3 Northern Spotted Owl Damon Lesmeister, (in alphabetical order): Raymond Davis, Peter Singleton, David Wiens This chapter will focus on the current scientific understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of northern spotted owls (NSOs). We will provide information about background knowledge of the ecology and status of the species, and the expectations for NSOs in the northwest forest plan (NWFP) area. In this chapter, we will examine the observed population status and trends, with particular attention on meta-analyses of demographic monitoring and population models. Populations of NSOs are influenced by multiple and often interacting factors. We will detail the current knowledge of habitat trends, land protection effectiveness, disturbance, and potential impacts based on projected change in climate and wildfire occurrences. Barred owl populations have increased dramatically since the development of the NWFP and have had significant effects on NSOs throughout their range. In addition to their impacts on NSOs, we will synthesize barred owl population trends and range expansion in the Pacific Northwest, as well as associations with habitat and prey. The chapter will identify uncertainties, evaluate scientific disagreements and discuss relevance of the science and will outline the considerations for management and needs for further research. 1. What is the current understanding about NSO rarity and will implementing the NWFP reverse the downward trend in NSO populations? 2. Is the NWFP maintaining or restoring NSO habitat necessary to support viable populations? 3. What are the effects of various timber management practices and wildfire on habitats used by NSOs? 4. How or do NSOs use treated habitats posttreatment and are there ways to modify treatment to benefit NSOs? How do treated habitats compare to untreated habitat in terms of habitat use and reproductive success? 5. How or do NSOs use postfire habitats? How do the risks of fire compare in treated and untreated habitats, and are the impacts of treatments outweighed by the risk of habitat loss as a result of fire? 6. How effective are the management recommendations for habitat buffers in retaining NSOs across treated landscapes? Are site buffers as effective as landscape-scale habitat management in ensuring species persistence, dispersal, and habitat connectivity? 7. Which provides a higher level of assurance of NSO presentence, the current NSO critical habitat or NWFP late-successional reserve network? 8. Considering wildfire, insects, disease, and climate change, are NSOs more likely to persist in treated or untreated late-successional habitats? 9. What are the effects of barred owls on NSOs? What is the relationship of fires to barred owl encroachment? 10. What are the management considerations and research needs for NSOs?

4 Marbled Murrelet Martin G. Raphael, Gary A. Falxa, Alan E. Burger This chapter will focus on the current scientific understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of the marbled murrelet (MAMU). We will provide background information about the ecology and status of the species, and the expectations for MAMUs in the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) area. In this chapter, we will examine the observed population status and trend at the scales of Conservation Zones, states, and entire range within the NWFP area. Populations of MAMUs are influenced by amount and distribution of terrestrial nesting habitat and also the effects of the marine environment on foraging habitat. We will detail the current knowledge of habitat trends, land protection effectiveness, disturbance, and potential impacts of projected climate change on the species and its marine and terrestrial habitats, including potential effects of future wildfire activity. We will also review the state of knowledge of other threats to the species, notably the threat of increased nest predator populations and potential linkages with land management. We will examine evidence of marine influences on MAMU distribution and trend and assess the relative influences of marine and terrestrial factors. The chapter will identify uncertainties, evaluate scientific disagreements and discuss relevance of the science and will outline the considerations for management and needs for further research. 1. What is the current understanding about MAMU rarity and will implementing the NWFP reverse the downward trend in MAMU populations? 2. What is the relationship between amount and configuration of old growth and potential to sustain a variety of disturbance regimes and late-successional dependent species? 3. How might management and conditions on other ownerships affect the above relationship with the understanding that old growth is only likely to persist on federal lands? 4. Is the NWFP maintaining or restoring MAMU habitat necessary to support viable populations? 5. What are the effects of various timber management practices and wildfire on habitats used by MAMUs? 6. How or do MAMUs use treated habitats posttreatment, and are there ways to modify treatment to benefit MAMUs? How do treated habitats compare to untreated habitat in terms of habitat use and reproductive success? 7. How or do MAMUs use postfire habitats? How do the risks of fire compare in treated and untreated habitats, and are the impacts of treatments outweighed by the risk of habitat loss resulting from fire? 8. How effective are the management recommendations for habitat buffers in retaining MAMUs across treated landscapes? Are site buffers as effective as landscape-scale habitat management in ensuring species persistence, dispersal, and habitat connectivity? 9. Which provides a higher level of assurance of MAMU persistence, the current NSO critical habitat or the current NWFP late-successional reserve network? 10. Considering wildfire, insects, disease, and climate change, are MAMUs more likely to persist in treated or untreated late-successional habitats? 11. What are the management considerations and research needs for MAMUs?

5 Other Species and Biodiversity of Older Forests Bruce G. Marcot, Karen Pope, Keith Slauson, Hartwell Welsh, Clara Wheeler In this chapter, we evaluate the scientific basis of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) approach to conserving old-forest associated species other than northern spotted owls, marbled murrelets, and salmonids. We review research findings since 2005 proving new information on the rarity of survey and manage species; effectiveness of old-forest and riparian-buffer management for retaining these species across treated landscapes; and if new information could contribute to changing the conservation status of these species. We also explore recent research findings on effects of prescribed fire and wildfire on rare and uncommon species and overall biodiversity; effectiveness of site buffers and habitat connections at the landscape scale; and recent progress from the Interagency Special Status and Sensitive Species Program. We summarize new research and evaluations specifically of old-forest species of fungi; invertebrates; nonvascular and vascular plants; amphibians and reptiles; carnivores including fisher and marten; small mammals including red tree vole; bats; and birds. We review findings also on the role of early seral vegetation environments and other issues and challenges such as climate change and other disturbances influencing or contributing to overall old-forest biodiversity, and new tools and syntheses for biodiversity evaluation. We end with how the science might relate to management of old-forest species and overall biodiversity. The chapter will identify uncertainties, evaluate scientific disagreements and discuss relevance of the science and will outline the considerations for management and needs for further research. : 1. What is the current scientific understanding about the rarity of survey and manage (S&M) species, and how effective are the management recommendations for habitat buffers in retaining these species across treated landscapes? 2. Is forest management under the NWFP providing habitat for rare and uncommon species as planned? a. Are rare and uncommon species maintaining populations under NWFP management? b. Have we accumulated enough information to change the conservation status of these species? c. Are there species originally ranked as having low potential for persistence that are now of less concern, particularly with the reduction in harvest levels of old-growth we ve seen under the NWFP? 3. What is the effect of prescribed fire and wildfire on rare and uncommon species? 4. Are known site buffers as effective as landscape-scale habitat management in ensuring species persistence, dispersal, and habitat connectivity? 5. Do the current S&M species list truly represent currently rare species with population persistence questions dependent upon late-successional old-growth (LSOG) habitat? 6. How has the Interagency Special Status and Sensitive Species Program served to provide information on LSOG-associated species under the NWFP?

6 Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems Gordon H. Reeves, Pete Bisson, Sherri Johnson, Jonathan Long Tentatively agreed to be co-authors: Tim Beechie, Michael Pollock, Jason Dunham (USGS) This chapter will focus on an assessment of the current scientific understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of aquatic and riparian ecosystems and selected biota and the expectations for them across the area of the Northwest Forest Plan. Particular focus will be given the review of relevant science pertaining to the principles of the Aquatic Conservation Strategy (ACS), delineation and management (passive and active) of riparian reserves, in-stream restoration, including fish passage, watershed and landscape management, and potential impacts of climate change. The chapter will identify uncertainties, evaluate scientific disagreements and discuss relevance of the science and will outline the considerations for management and needs for further research. 1. What is the current assessment of the curves of ecological functions developed by the Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Team? 2. Can size of the Riparian Reserve (RR) network be adjusted and still achieve the goals of the ACS? 3. What is the role of the RR in the movement and dispersal of nonaquatic organisms? 4. What is the current science on watershed and landscape management and analysis? 5. What is the current science on the role of natural disturbances on the long-term productivity of aquatic ecosystems? 6. What is the current science related to thinning in RRs? a. What are the pros and cons of passive vs. active management? b. What are the potential tradeoffs between short- and long-term effects? c. What are consequences of changes in the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) model to the results and implication of them in past and future studies that used FVS? 7. Can results of recent studies of the effect of the Oregon State Forest Practices Act be applied to federal lands? 8. What is the effectiveness of fish passage restoration? 9. What are the potential impacts of climate change on aquatic and riparian habitats and biota? a. How do potential effects differ across the area of interest? b. What are potential mitigation and adaptation strategies?

7 Socioeconomic Well-Being and Forest Management in Northwest Forest Plan Area Communities Susan Charnley, Eric White, Jeff Kline, Jesse Abrams, Heidi Huber-Stearns, Cassandra Moseley The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) Record of Decision posed a monitoring question that has guided NWFP socioeconomic monitoring over the past two decades, and that persists today as a key question of interest among managers and stakeholders in the Plan area: Are local communities and economies experiencing positive or negative changes that may be associated with federal forest management? This chapter synthesizes the state of the science on rural community well-being in the Northwest Forest Plan area, how it has changed over the past three decades, how these changes may be linked to federal forest management, and how federal forests contribute to rural community well-being. We also synthesize the science about how rural communities contribute to the management of federal forests in the Plan area. And, we discuss trends in land use and land ownership change on private lands, and its implications for federal forest management. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for future management of federal forests in the Plan area, and by identifying gaps for future research. 1) How have social and economic conditions in rural communities in the NWFP area been changing over the past two decades? 2) What has been the role of federal forest management as a driver of change in rural communities? 3) How does federal forest management contribute to socioeconomic well-being in rural communities? 4) How does socioeconomic well-being in rural communities influence federal forest management? 5) What are the implications for forest management of changes in land use and land ownership over the past two decades? Collaboration, Public Engagement, and the Public Values of Citizens and Stakeholders Lee Cerveny, Clare Ryan, Debra Whitall, Rebecca McLain, Eric White The past 20 years have seen a shift in public values, uses, and practices related to forest landscapes and changing perspectives about the management of forests in the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) Area. At the same time, there has been greater public demand for an expanded role in natural resource decision making. The proliferation of collaborative groups in the NWFP area reflects this trend. National forests are seeking new ways to expand public engagement, include traditionally underrepresented groups, and reach the missing middle. This chapter focuses on

8 current scientific understanding of (a) the effectiveness of collaboration and collaborative processes in engaging communities and stakeholders and achieving resource objectives; (b) the effectiveness of public engagement processes for involving citizens and stakeholders in resource management decision making; (c) the nature of public values, attitudes and beliefs toward forest landscapes and resource management and the value of place ; and (d) changing dynamics of public interactions with forest landscapes, particularly recreation. Examples from the NWFP area will be emphasized. Collaboration 1. What kinds of collaborative groups and processes are engaged in the NWFP area? How is collaborative forest management changing? 2. What elements contribute to successful collaboration in forest management? 3. How much has collaboration contributed to achieving objectives in resource management and socioeconomic well-being? Engaging the Public 4. What strategies are effective in engaging communities and the public in forest plan revision in the NWFP area? Public Values, Attitudes, and Beliefs about Forests, Landscapes, and Place 5. How have public values, attitudes and beliefs toward the natural environment and their relationship to the landscape shifted over the past 30 years? 6. What has been learned about the importance of valuing place? 7. How have values, attitudes, and beliefs of the public toward resource management and use changed over the past 20 years? Public Interactions with Forest Landscapes and Recreation Patterns 8. How have public uses and interactions with forests and grasslands changed over the past 20 years? 9. What are the drivers that shape public uses of forestlands for recreation? How have recreation values and uses changed in the past 20 years? Environmental Justice Populations and Forest Management in the Northwest Forest Plan Area Susan Charnley, Elisabeth Grinspoon, Heidi Huber-Stearns, Eric White, Delilah Jaworski, and Lee Cerveny This chapter responds to federal forest managers request for information about the status and trends of environmental justice populations in the Northwest Forest Plan area, and how these

9 populations relate to federal forests. Environmental justice populations include those specified by the 1994 Executive Order on Environmental Justice: people who are low income, or people who are American Indian or Alaskan Native, Asian or Pacific Islander, Black and not of Hispanic origin, or Hispanic. More detailed information about American Indian tribes can be found in the Tribal Values Chapter; here we emphasize other environmental justice populations. The published literature about environmental justice populations and their relations with federal forests in the Plan area focuses on commercial non-timber forest products gathering, recreation, and the environmental workforce. We address these topics here, and also discuss two topics that are less well documented but where research is emerging: non-recreational camping, particularly homelessness; and wildland fire management. 1) What are the trends in low income and minority populations in the NWFP area? 2) How do low income and minority populations relate to federal forests in the NWFP area? Tribal Values Jonathan Long, Frank Lake, Kathy Lynn This chapter will focus on the current scientific understanding of the ecology, conservation, and restoration of forests, rivers, and other ecosystems that support values of special interest to tribes. This chapter will synthesize recent published, peer-reviewed findings on how changes in climate, fire, hydrologic, and resource management regimes have affected natural and cultural values of tribes, as well as current stressors on those values. The chapter will identify areas of agreement and uncertainty in guiding strategies to sustain tribal values as part of land and resource management in the NWFP area. It will integrate findings from other chapters while also featuring recent peer-reviewed publications that have focused on tribal values and trust resources of special significance. 1. What are the significant concerns for tribes in managing federal lands in the NWFP area, including government-to-government relationships and consultation with federally recognized tribes? 2. What are current stressors on values of interest to tribes, including climate change and related disturbances? 3. What does recent science indicate regarding management strategies to promote natural/cultural resources and associated tribal values, including influences of indigenous/tribal management practices on historical ranges of variation? 4. How do those strategies integrate with management, research, and monitoring for economic, social, cultural, terrestrial and aquatic systems more broadly?

10 Integration Thomas Spies, Peter Stine, Damon Lesmeister, Martin G. Raphael, Gordon H. Reeves, Johnathan Long, Bruce G. Marcot, Susan Charnley, Lee Cerveny, Matt Reilly, and others The ecological, social and economic components of forest planning under the goals of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) do not exist in isolation; actions to conserve, restore or promote one component may positively or negatively affect other components. The conservation strategies for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and species can interact across watersheds. Efforts to conserve or restore ecosystems and species will have effects across biological levels/hierarchies (e.g., species to ecosystems) and spatial (e.g., reaches to watersheds) and temporal scales. This chapter will examine what is known about interactions (e.g., synergies and tradeoffs) within and between biophysical and socioeconomic components. The chapter will also look at cross-cutting issues such as climate change and scale effects as they might influence species, ecosystems, and people. Finally, it will examine the science through the perspective of socioecological systems, identifying what is known about interactions, resilience, and adaptation and identifying key uncertainties and strategies (e.g., adaptive management) for dealing with them. 1. What are the synergies and tradeoffs associated with managing for ecosystem, species, and socioeconomic goals? a. How does riparian reserve management affect the terrestrial species that use them and vice versa? b. What are potential tradeoffs of fire salvage treatments in providing socioeconomic benefits or impacting ecological values associated with leaving snags and downed wood? c. What are the interactions of ecosystem restoration activities and conservation and restoration of habitats for individual species? d. What are the connections between forest management capacity (mills, workforce) in landscapes and ecological restoration at ecosystem and species levels? e. What are the tradeoffs between forest management and carbon sequestration? 2. What is the ecological basis and need for considering regional scales and multiple ownerships in planning and management? 3. What does the scientific literature say about strategies for dealing with uncertainties associated with climate and socioeconomic changes and interactions of climate and social change? 4. What are the implications for monitoring and adaptive management?