RELATING CLIMATE TO WHITEBARK PINE CONE PRODUCTION. By Phil Farnes and Shawn Stewart

Transcription

1 RELATING CLIMATE TO WHITEBARK PINE CONE PRODUCTION By Phil Farnes and Shawn Stewart

2 TRANSECT LOCATIONS ROCK CREEK 3 LOCATIONS, FT STILLWATER RIVER 4 LOCATIONS, FT BOULDER RIVER 2 LOCATIONS, FT

3 CONES vs BEAR HARVEST

4 SNOTEL LOCATIONS BEARTOOTH LAKE 9275 FT ROCK CREEK PLACER BASIN 8830 FT STILLWATER RIVER MONUMENT PEAK 8850 FT BOULDER RIVER

5 DATA AVALABLITY DAILY DATA FOR ENTIRE YEAR PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE Max, Min, Avg SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT

6 CALCULATED DATA GROWING DEGREE-DAYS DAILY TAVG BASE OF 41 DEGREE F BREAK DORMANCY AFTER 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS ABOVE 41 0 F END OF GROWING SEASON WHEN TMIN COLDER THAN 23 0 F KBDI SERROGATE FOR SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT AVERAGE DURING CRITICAL GDD PERIODS MAXIMUM DURING CRITICAL GDD PERIODS PRECIPITATION DAYS DURING POLLENATION PERCENT OF DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN GDD ON SECOND YEAR

7 Year One GDD Tmin above 20 F GDD exceeds 830 KBDI Less Than 100 Year Two GDD Tmin above 20 F GDD exceeds 700 Year Two GDD Rain on Less 30% Days KBDI Less Than100 Year Three GDD Tmin above 20 F Year Three GDD KBDI Less Than 100 GDD exceeds 700 WHITEBARK PINE CRITICAL VARIABLES

8 PROBLEMS VARIABILITY BETWEEN TREES EARLY STAGES OF DISEASE TREE AGE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SNOW DRIFTS UPSLOPE DRAINAGE WEIGHT OF CLIMATE Moisture Temperature

9 CRITERIA IF GDD ON YEAR ONE IS LESS THAN 830, NO CONES IN 3 RD YEAR OTHER PARAMETERS CAN REDUCE NUMBER OF CONES AND ARE GENERALLY ACCUMULATIVE IF GDD IN YEAR 3 IS LESS THAN 700, CONES MAY NOT BE MATURED

10 CONE PRODUCTION TREES GROUPED BY SIMILAR OUTPUT EACH GROUP RANKED FROM 0 (NO CONES) TO 1, 2, 3 OR 4 RANK OF 4 IS BETWEEN 76 AND 100% OF MAXIMUM CONES PRODUCED RANK OF 3 IS BETWEEN 51 AND 75% RANK OF 2 IS BETWEEN 26 AND 50% RANK OF 1 IS BETWEEN 1 AND 25%

11 ESTIMATING CONE PRODUCTION 4 Equation for Estimating Cone Production Rank of Cone Production Number of Parameters Below Threshold

12 MATURE NUTS It Requires About 700 GDD to Have Mature Nuts. Early Counts Might Show Cones Present But Nuts May Not be Mature

13 LODGEPOLE PINE Understand Cone Production In Lodgepole Pine Used By Red Squirrels During Years When Whitebark Pine Trees Do Not Produce Cones No Squirrels No Middens For Bears

14 HIGHEST ELEVATION TREES Limited Use By Squirrels Used By Clark s Nutcracker For Re-seeding

15 TRANSECTS Add 5 Samples to Transects to Have Record of Cone Production When They Are Used To Replace Transect Trees.

16 RESEARCH Data Used From Schmidt and Lotan 1980 Check Data at SNOTEL Sites Best Location Togwotee Pass 28+ SNOTEL Sites in West in or Near Whitebark Stands

17 DATA AVAILABILITY About 50 Stations In Core GYA NWS Climatological Stations NRCS SNOTEL Stations USBR Weather Stations NPS Recreation Stations On NPS Web Site Observed Data Plus Value Added Products GDD For Grass And Trees Day Break Dormancy and Day Growth Ends SWE at NWS Stations Missing Records Are Estimated Summary Tables

18 PLACER BASIN SNOTEL Arrange Data For Current Year Transfer Data to Year of Influence Year 1 Two Years Ago Year 2 Previous Year Year 3 Current Year Identify Variables With Negative Influence Determine How Many are Related to Moisture and How Many are Related to Temperature

19 FORGE CREEK CONE COUNT Avg Avg Avg 1,5,8,10 2,3,4,9 6,

20 FORGE CREEK CONE RANK Avg Avg Avg 1,5,8,10 2,3,4,9 6,

21 PLACER BASIN/FORGE CREEK RANK Moist Temp Total Cones Cone Year NC NC NC

22 WORK IN PROGRESS Refine Weight of Different Variables Moisture Temperature Visit Sites to Evaluate Any Source of Additional Moisture And Variance Between Trees

23 PREVIOUS REPORTS SNOWMELT PATTERNS AS PREDICTORS OF POST-FIRE WHITEBARK PINE REGENERATION DENSITIES ON MT. WASHBURN, YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK Report Submitted To Dr. Anna W. Schoettle Research Plant Ecophysiologist Rocky Mountain Research Station U. S. Forest Service Fort Collins, Colorado, Snowmelt On Whitebark Pine Plots Springs of 2002 and 2003 Report Prepared By Phillip E. Farnes Snowcap Hydrology P. O. Box 691 Bozeman, Montana, July 2003

24 PREVIOUS REPORTS RELATING CLIMATIC DATA TO WHITEBARK PINE CONE PRODUCTION IN THE ROCK CREEK, BOULDER RIVER, AND STILLWATER RIVER DRAINAGES, IN SOUTHCENTRAL MONTANA Prepared For Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks and Custer National Forest By Phil Farnes Snowcap Hydrology Bozeman, Mt February 2012

25 THE END Questions?