Brazil: 2014 Elections Guide
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1 Brazil: 2014 Elections Guide Luiz Cherman Luiz Felipe Priolli Giulia Coelho *We thank Rodrigo Versolato for creating the maps
2 Contents 1. Who s the Brazilian Voter? (p.3) 2. Who are the Candidates? (p.9) 3. Rules, Key Dates, Marketing (p.18) 4. Government s Approval (p. 24) 5. Electoral Polls (p. 27) 2
3 Who s the Brazilian Voter? 3
4 Brazilian Voters Profile Age % of Total years old 16% years old 24% years old 20% years old 23% 60 years old or more 17% Municipality Size % of Total up to 50k inhabitants 34% k inhabitants 21% k inhabitants 15% more than 500k inhabitants 30% Region % of Total Southeast 43% South 15% Northeast 27% Center West 7% North 8% Municipality Geography % of Total Capital 40% Countryside 60% Gender % of Total Male 48% Female 52% Occupation % of Total Economic Active Population 70% Non - Economic Active Population 30% Education % of Total Basic 41% High School 43% University Degree 17% Average Income % of Total up to 2 minimum wages 44% 2-5 minimum wages 39% 5-10 minimum wages 10% 10 or more minimum wages 7% Source: Datafolha 4
5 The Brazilian Territory REGIONS North Northeast Center-West Southeast South 5
6 Distribution of Voters Number of Voters 30 to 35 million 15 to 20 million 10 to 15 million 5 to 10 million Less than 5 million Voters 2014 % of population Acre 506, % Alagoas 1,995, % Amapá 455, % Bahia 10,185, % Ceará 6,271, % Distrito Federal 1,897, % Espírito Santo 2,653, % Goiás 4,331, % Maranhão 4,497, % Mato Grosso 2,189, % Mato Grosso do Sul 1,818, % Minas Gerais 15,248, % Paraíba 2,835, % Paraná 7,865, % Pernambuco 6,356, % Piauí 2,345, % Rio Grande do Norte 2,327, % Rio Grande do Sul 8,392, % Rondônia 1,127, % Santa Catarina 4,859, % São Paulo 31,998, % Sergipe 1,454, % Tocantins 996, % Living Abroad 354, % Brazil 142,822, % Source: TSE - Electoral Supreme Court 6
7 Income and Job Creation by State Per Capita GDP (BRL)* Job Creation by State in 2014** BRL 30,000 to 35,000 BRL 25,000 to 30,000 BRL 20,000 to 25,000 BRL 15,000 to 20,000 BRL 5,000 to 15, % to 1.8% 0.8% to 1.0% 0.5% to 0.8% 0.0% to 0.5% -0.4% to 0.0% * Numbers of 2011, the latest available. ** Net formal job creation over the last 12months up to May 2014 as percentage of the local total population 7
8 2010 Election: Results (Second Round) Distribution by geographic region Dilma Rousseff (PT) José Serra (PSDB) Total votes: does not exclude abstention/blank/null 41% to 51% 38% to 41% 35% to 38% Total votes: does not exclude abstention/blank/ null 40% to 45% 35% to 40% 30% to 35% 20% to 30% 2010 Elections Second Round Region Voters (2010) Dilma (%) Serra (%) Blank (%) Null (%) Abstention (%) Southeast 43,451,058 52% 48% 0.9% 1.7% 9% Northeast 23,177,196 70% 30% 0.4% 0.9% 6% South 15,760,631 46% 54% 0.2% 0.3% 3% North/Center West 16,941,962 58% 42% 0.2% 0.5% 5% TOTAL 99,330,847 56% 44% 2% 3% 21% 8
9 Who are the candidates? 9
10 Candidates List 1. Dilma Rousseff 2. Aécio Neves 3. Marina Silva 4. Pastor Everaldo 5. Luciana Genro 6. Eduardo Jorge 7. Eymael 8. Levy Fidelix 9. Mauro Iasi 10.Rui Costa Pimenta 11.José Maria 10
11 Dilma Rousseff Workers Party (PT) Summary Having started her political career in the PDT party, Dilma Rousseff later moved to the PT party, having reached the positions of minister of Energy and Chief of Staff in Lula s administration. In 2010, with his support, she was elected president of the Republic and now runs for reelection. Place and date of birth Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (December 14, 1947) Political Background - highlights Municipal Finance Secretary - Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul ( ) Secretary of Mines and Energy - Rio Grande do Sul ( ; ) Minister of Mines and Energy ( ), Federal Chief of Staff ( ) President of the Republic (since 2010) Academic Background B.A. in Economics at Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul Unfinished PhD in Economics at University of Campinas Political parties PDT Democratic Labor Party ( ) PT Workers Party (since 2001) 11
12 Aécio Neves - Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) Summary Brought into politics by his grandfather Tancredo Neves, who was the first president elected after democracy was reestablished (1985) but died shortly before taking power, Aécio Neves was twice governor of the sourtheastern state of Minas Gerais. He is from the PSDB, the same party of former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso ( ). Having initially been considered one of the possible candidates for the 2010 presidential elections, he ended up winning a seat in the Senate, his current position. Place and date of birth Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (March 10, 1960) Political Background - highlights Federal lawmaker by Minas Gerais ( ) President of the Lower House ( ) Governor of the State of Minas Gerais ( , ) Senator by Minas Gerais (Since 2011) Academic Background B.A. in Economics at Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais Political parties PMDB Brazilian Democratic Mobilization Party ( ) PSDB Brazilian Social Democratic Party (since 1989) 12
13 Marina Silva Summary Born in the northern state of Acre, Marina Silva was for 23 years a member of PT, having become Minister of the Environment during President Lula s administration. She left the government in 2008, joined the Green Party (PV), and ran for president in 2010, ending up in the third place, with 19% of valid votes. In 2013, Marina joined the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party), becoming vice-presidential candidate to Eduardo Campos. After Campos s death in an airplane accident, she was appointed to run for president. Place and date of birth Rio Branco, Acre (8 Feb, 1958) Political Background City councilor in Rio Branco, Acre ( ) State lawmaker in Acre ( ) Senator by Acre ( , ) Minister of Environment ( ) Lula s Administration Presidential candidate 2010 elections Academic Background B.A. in History at Federal University of Acre Specialization in Psychoanalytical theory at the University of Brasilia Political parties PT Workers Party ( ) PV Green Party ( ) PSB Since
14 Everaldo Pereira Social Christian Party - PSC A minister at the evangelical church Assembleia de Deus, Everaldo Pereira joined the Social Christian Party in 2003, which rapidly grew to 12 seats in the Lower House. Everaldo Pereira has been undersecretary of the Chief of Staff in Anthony Garotinho s government in Rio de Janeiro ( ). He is 56 years old and has a degree in Actuarial Sciences. Luciana Genro Socialism and Freedom Party - PSOL Luciana Genro helped found the Socialism and Freedom Party in 2003, after 18 years in the Workers Party. Luciana was twice federal and twice state lawmaker from Rio Grande do Sul. She is 43 years old and works in a law firm. Her father is Rio Grande do Sul s governor Tarso Genro, from the Workers Party. The PSOL has 3 seats in the Lower House. 14
15 Eduardo Jorge Green Party - PV Eduardo Jorge was Environment Secretary of São Paulo in and Health Secretary in and Before joining the Green Party in 2003 (which has 8 seats in the Lower House), Eduardo Jorge was at the Workers Party, having been elected federal lawmaker several times. He graduated in Medicine and is a government employee in the Public Health sector. He is 64 years old. José Maria Eymael Social Democrat Christian Party - PSDC José Maria Eymael has been all his career in the Social Democrat Christian Party, which has one seat in the Lower House. He was federal lawmaker twice by the state of São Paulo ( ) and was three times presidential candidate. Born in Rio Grande do Sul, Eymael, who is also a tax lawyer, is 74 years old. 15
16 Levy Fidelix Brazilian Labor Renewal Party - PRTB Levy Fidelix is the founder of the Brazilian Labor Renewal Party, which has no seat in Congress. Fidelix developed his career in journalism and media, having graduated in communication studies. Now 62 years old, he has been candidate in several elections, including twice for president, but never managed to be elected. Mauro Iasi Brazilian Communist Party - PCB Mauro Iasi is a Professor at the School of Social Service of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. He is 54 years old and was candidate for vice-governor of Rio de Janeiro in The Brazilian Communist Party does not have a seat in Congress. 16
17 Rui Costa Pimenta Party of the Workers Cause PCO Rui Pimenta ran for president in 2002 and He is one of the founders of the Workers Party, which he left in 1995 to found the PCO, a party with no seat in Congress. He graduated in journalism and is the editor of the Workers Cause magazine. José Zé Maria Unified Socialist Workers Party PSTU A union leader and former metal worker, Zé Maria helped found the Unified Socialist Workers Party (PSTU) in Before that, he was a member of the Workers Party. He is 56 years old and ran for president three times. The PSTU has no seat in Congress. 17
18 Rules, Key Dates, Marketing 18
19 Rules of the Game First round is on October 5. A candidate wins if he/she has more than 50% of valid votes (excluding blank and null). Otherwise, the two most voted go to a run-off on October 26. The most voted wins. Voting is compulsory between ages 18 and 70. Voting is optional for illiterate citizens, 16, 17 and 70+ years old. All ballots are electronic. Paid advertisement is forbidden. All candidates will have a specified time on the free TV and radio electoral programs. Distribution of time between them will be proportional to the candidate s supporting coalition. TV and radio debates are allowed. The first one is scheduled for August 21. Any candidate can renounce and be substituted. Deadline is 20 days before the first round. 19
20 Key Dates July 6: The campaign is on! Coalitions can start marketing their candidates, ask for votes, organize party rallies. August 6: First official report detailing the funding and expenses estimated for the campaigns. August 19: Beginning of the public financed TV and radio programs. August 26: First candidates debate on TV. September 6: Second report detailing the funding and expenses estimated for the campaigns. September 15: Last day for candidates to resign and be substituted. July August September October October 2: Last day for TV and radio debates between candidates. October 3: Last day of the public financed TV and radio programs. October 5: ELECTION DAY (First Round*) Start: 8:00 am End: 5:00 pm * Voting count starts after 5 pm. (All Brazilian ballots are eletronic) October 6: Coalitions can start marketing their candidates for the run-off. October 11: Beginning of the public financed TV and radio programs. October 24: Last day for debates and public financed TV and radio programs. October 26: ELECTION DAY (Second Round) Start: 8:00 am End: 5:00 pm * Voting count starts after 5 pm. (All Brazilian ballots are eletronic) * A candidate wins in the first round if he/she has more than 50% of valid votes (i.e.: excluding null and blank). Otherwise, the two most voted go to a run-off. 20
21 TV and Radio Electoral Programs The first round TV and Radio programs will run through August 19 to October 2. Programs for the presidential election will be of two types: A large 25-minute program aired three times a week, twice per day Smaller daily insertions spread throughout the day Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday Large Programs - 25 minutes Media First Second Radio 7:00 AM 12:00 PM TV 1:00 PM 8:30 PM + Daily Insertions of 15 seconds to 1 minute Total per day = 6 minutes 1/3 of the time will be equally divided among the presidential candidates 2/3 of the time will be proportional to the candidate s coalition in the Lower House 21
22 How Would One 25-minute Program Look Like? This is an estimate released by the Electoral Court. The final distribution has not been released yet. Candidate Total Time on TV* (min:sec) % of Total Time Dilma Rousseff 11: % Aécio Neves 04: % Marina Silva 02:03 8.2% Pastor Everaldo 01:10 4.7% Eduardo Jorge 01:04 4.3% Luciana Genro 00:51 3.4% Levy Fidelix 00:47 3.1% Ruy Costa Pimenta 00:45 3.0% Mauro Iasi 00:45 3.0% Eymael 00:45 3.0% José Maria 00:45 3.0% Total (All Candidates) 25:00 100% Ruy Costa Pimenta 00:45 Levy Fidelix 00:47 Luciana Genro 00:51 Eduardo Jorge 01:04 Pastor Everaldo 01:10 Marina Silva 02:03 Mauro Iasi 00:45 Aécio Neves 04:35 José Maria 00:45 Eymael 00:45 Dilma Rousseff 11:24 22
23 What Happens if there is a Second Round? In the second round, the time is distributed evenly between the two candidates. Each presidential candidate will have 10 minutes in a 20-minute program aired daily, twice per day. Large Programs - 20 minutes Daily Media First Second Radio 7:00 AM 12:00 PM TV 1:00 PM 8:30 PM 23
24 Government s Approval 24
25 20-Feb Mar-14 3-Apr Apr-14 8-May May-14 5-Jun Jun-14 2-Jul Jul Jul-14 7-Aug Aug-14 Government s Approval Rate % Great + Good Datafolha Ibope Datafolha Ibope Datafolha Ibope Datafolha Ibope Datafolha Datafolha IBOPE IBOPE Datafolha 25
26 Seasonal Government s Approval Rate Datafolha: Government approval in the 12 months prior to elections : Lula :Lula : Fernando Henrique 2002: Fernando Henrique : Dilma 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 26
27 Electoral Poll Results 27
28 Voting Intentions First Round Datafolha Dilma Rousseff 36 Aécio Neves 20 Marina Silva 21 Other candidates 6 Blank/Nulls 8 Undecided 9 18-Aug-14 28
29 Voting Intentions Second Round Datafolha Dilma Rousseff vs Aécio Neves Dilma Rousseff vs Marina Silva August 18th Oct 29-Nov 21-Feb 3-Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Aécio Neves Undecided 29
30 Voting Intentions Dilma vs. Aécio By region, by municipality size, by income and by education level 30
31 Voting Intentions By Region Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Dilma 18-Aug-14 Aécio Neves Blank/Null Undecided Rousseff % share of region in Brazilian voters Region % votes % votes % votes % votes Northeast 27% 62% 27% 6% 4% Southeast 44% 38% 45% 12% 5% South 15% 42% 44% 8% 6% North 8% 63% 27% 5% 4% Center West 7% 39% 50% 9% 1% TOTAL 100% 47% 39% 9% 5% 31
32 Voting Intentions By Region Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Northeast - 27% of Total Southweast - 44% of Total May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 32
33 Voting Intentions By Region Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves South - 15% of Total North - 8% of Total May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 33
34 Voting Intentions By Region Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Center West - 7% of Total May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 34
35 Voting Intentions By municipality size Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Dilma 18-Aug-14 Aécio Neves Blank/Null Undecided Rousseff % share in Brazilian voters Population % votes % votes % votes % votes Up to 50k inhabitants 33% 57% 32% 6% 5% 50k - 200k inhabitants 23% 46% 41% 9% 5% 200k - 500k inhabitants 15% 42% 44% 9% 4% More than 500k inhabitants 29% 40% 43% 12% 4% TOTAL 100% 47% 39% 9% 5% 35
36 Voting Intentions By municipality size Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Up to 50k - 33% of Total 50k to 200k- 23% of Total Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 36
37 Voting Intentions By municipality size Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves 200k to 500k - 15% of Total 500k or more- 29% of Total Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 37
38 Voting Intentions By income Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Dilma 18-Aug-14 Aécio Neves Blank/Null Undecided Rousseff % share in Brazilian voters Income % votes % votes % votes % votes Up to 2 minimum wages 44% 57% 31% 7% 6% 2-5 minimum wages 21% 42% 45% 9% 4% 5-10 minimum wages 16% 35% 51% 13% 1% 10 or more minimum wages 15% 26% 60% 12% 2% TOTAL 100% 47% 39% 9% 5% *Minimum Wage: R$ (US$ ) 38
39 Voting Intentions By income Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Up to 2 minimum wages 44% of Total 2 to 5 minimum wages 21% of Total Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 3-Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 39
40 Voting Intentions By income Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves 5 to 10 minimum wages 16% of Total More than 10 minium wages 15% of Total Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 3-Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 40
41 Voting Intentions By education level Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Dilma 18-Aug-14 Aécio Neves Blank/Null Undecided Rousseff % share in Brazilian voters Education % votes % votes % votes % votes Basic 41% 57% 31% 6% 7% High School 41% 46% 42% 9% 3% University Degree 18% 30% 53% 15% 2% TOTAL 100% 48% 39% 9% 5% 41
42 Voting Intentions By education level Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves Basic education - 40% of Total High School - 41% of Total Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 42
43 Voting Intentions By education level Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Aécio Neves University - 18% of Total Apr 9-May 5-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 18-Aug 43
44 Voting Intentions Dilma vs. Marina By region, by municipality size, by income and by education level 44
45 Voting Intentions By Region Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Dilma 18-Aug-14 Marina Silva Blank/Null Undecided Rousseff % share of region in Brazilian voters Region % votes % votes % votes % votes Northeast 27% 54% 38% 4% 4% Southeast 44% 36% 53% 7% 4% South 15% 40% 47% 7% 7% North 8% 59% 34% 5% 2% Center West 7% 33% 60% 6% 2% TOTAL 100% 43% 47% 6% 4% 45
46 Voting Intentions By Region Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Northeast 27% of total Southeast 44% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided 46
47 Voting Intentions By Region Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva South 15% of total North 8% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided 47
48 Voting Intentions By Region Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Center West 7% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided 48
49 Voting Intentions By municipality size Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Dilma 18-Aug-14 Marina Silva Blank/Null Undecided Rousseff % share in Brazilian voters Population % votes % votes % votes % votes Up to 50k inhabitants 33% 54% 38% 4% 4% 50k - 200k inhabitants 23% 41% 48% 6% 5% 200k - 500k inhabitants 15% 38% 51% 8% 4% More than 500k inhabitants 29% 35% 55% 6% 3% TOTAL 100% 43% 47% 6% 4% 49
50 Voting Intentions By municipality size Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Up to 50k 33% of total 50k to 200k 23% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided *number of inhabitants 50
51 Voting Intentions By municipality size Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva 200k to 500k 15% of total More than 500k 29% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided *number of inhabitants 51
52 Voting Intentions By income Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Dilma 18-Aug-14 Marina Silva Blank/Null Undecided Rousseff % share in Brazilian voters Income % votes % votes % votes % votes Up to 2 minimum wages 44% 52% 38% 5% 5% 2-5 minimum wages 21% 39% 53% 5% 3% 5-10 minimum wages 16% 29% 62% 8% 1% 10 or more minimum wages 15% 21% 64% 11% 3% TOTAL 100% 43% 47% 6% 4% *Minimum Wage: R$ (US$ ) 52
53 Voting Intentions By income Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Up to 2 minimum wages 44% of total 2 to 5 minimum wages 21% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided 53
54 Voting Intentions By income Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva 5 to 10 minimum wages 16% of total 62 More than 10 minimum wages 15% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided 54
55 Voting Intentions By education level Datafolha Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Dilma 18-Aug-14 Marina Silva Blank/Null Undecided Rousseff % share in Brazilian voters Education % votes % votes % votes % votes Basic 41% 55% 34% 6% 6% High School 41% 40% 53% 5% 3% University Degree 18% 24% 65% 8% 3% TOTAL 100% 43% 47% 6% 4% 55
56 Voting Intentions By education level Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva Basic education 41% of total High School 41% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided 56
57 Voting Intentions By education level Datafolha (Aug 18th) Second Round: Dilma Rousseff vs. Marina Silva University Degree 18% of total Marina Silva Dilma Rousseff Blank/Null Undecided 57
58 Relevant Information 1. This report has been prepared and issued by the Macro Research Department of Banco Itaú Unibanco S.A. ( Itaú Unibanco ). This report is not a product of the Equity Research Department of Itaú Unibanco or Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and should not be construed as a research report ( relatório de análise ) for the purposes of the article 1 of the CVM Instruction NR. 483, dated July 06, This report aims at providing macroeconomics information, and does not constitute, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information herein is believed to be reliable as of the date on which this report was issued and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. 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