Climate Change Adaptation In Alberta. Presented to SRM Nov. 2, 2007

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation In Alberta Presented to SRM Nov. 2, 2007

2 Mean Annual Temperature (Median Scenario) s

3 Annual Moisture Index (GDD/Annual Precip) s

4 Alberta s Vulnerability Assessment The Alberta Vulnerability Assessment Project is expected to result in: Alberta adapting to a changing climate by managing short and long-term climate risks and opportunities within an integrated sustainable development policy framework.

5 The vulnerability assessment will: Explore how climate change may affect sustainable development within Alberta. Provide an understanding of challenges and opportunities facing sectors in increasing adaptive capacity. Assist in identification of priorities for medium and longterm research within and across sectors within the provincial economy. Guide the integration of climate change impacts and adaptation issues into a provincial risk management framework for sustainable development. Stimulate dialog within and across sectors of the provincial economy about the types of vulnerability to climate change

6 Vulnerability Assessment -Outcomes An understanding of future vulnerability, future coping ranges, critical thresholds and adaptive capacity. Stakeholders will be engaged to fully explore sector vulnerabilities and to provide a forum for information exchange and education. Understanding of the highest priorities for increasing adaptive capacity and recommendations for action

7 Key Concepts Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Natural Resources Canada, 2004, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective

8 Key Concepts Sensitivity: The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sealevel rise). Natural Resources Canada, 2004, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective

9 Key Concepts Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Natural Resources Canada, 2004, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective Adaptation: Adjustments to practices, policy and infrastructure in response to current climate or in anticipation of climate change. (IPCC 2001)

10 Determinant Economic resources Technology Information and skills Infrastructure Institutions Equity Adaptive Capacity Explanation Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacity Lack of financial resources limits adaptation options Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation options Less technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop and/or implement technological adaptations Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive capacity Greater access to information increases likelihood of timely and appropriate adaptation Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity, since it provides more options Characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive capacity Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of climate-related risks, and therefore increase adaptive capacity Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacity Both availability of, and access to, resources is important

11 Climate Variation Coping Range Upper Threshold adaptatio Lower Threshold Time (years) Climatic variability Climatic change Adaptation implementation

12 Estimating Vulnerability Process examines current climate and a range of potential future climates and the resulting biophysical, economic, social and environmental impacts. Develop recommendations for short and long term action and a risk management framework to guide adaptation to climate change. Develop longer-term strategies for climate change adaptation in the context of Sustainable Resource and Environmental Management Climate change scenarios for the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, but concrete recommendations for action will focus on the medium-term (6-20 years) with consideration of the long term (20-40 years).

13 Vulnerability Assessment - Major Tasks Climate Scenario Modelling Biophysical Scenario Development Economic, Social and Environmental Scenario Development Vulnerability Estimation

14 CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR ALBERTA A Report Prepared for the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) for Alberta Environment Elaine Barrow & Ge Yu May 2005

15 scenarios/index.cgi

16 Mean Annual Temperature (Median Scenario) s

17 Mean Annual Precipitation s

18 Growing Degree Days > 5 0 C s

19 Annual Moisture Index (GDD/Annual Precip) s

20 Social Scoping Study Dr. Debra Davidson Climate change implications for economies, human health, livelihood options, and quality of life Sensitivity Features Exposure Social System Impact Post Impact Social System Adaptive Features

21 Social Scoping Study Near-term exposure: drought; forest fires; vector-borne diseases; flooding; and heat waves. Subgroups of the population, and certain regions are far more sensitive than the Albertan population as a whole. Most sensitive groups and least adaptive capacity : children and the elderly; people living close to or below the poverty line; people of minority or Aboriginal status; and/or recent immigrants. Most sensitive communities: high rates of dependency on agriculture or forestry, remote communities, and Aboriginal communities. Large cities have higher adaptive capacity compared to smaller cities and rural communities.

22 Social Scoping Study Sources of potential adaptive capacity: a healthy economy, a strong commitment to science and technology, a youthful populous and relatively high levels of human capital Most municipalities do not have the resources to engage in adaptation; it requires supportive partnerships with the Provincial government Effective adaptation will require substantial political commitment, and it is not clear at this time whether this commitment exists, or is likely to emerge in the near future Potential vulnerability to the future impacts of climate change are contingent upon action taken today, as future sensitivity and adaptive capacity will be determined by societal responses to current impacts; the failure to ensure an effective response today will exacerbate future vulnerability. The formulation of effective adaptation policies will require a more comprehensive empirical assessment of vulnerability

23 Economic Scoping Study - Dr. Kurt Klein Climate change might affect the performance of all major economic sectors in Alberta, through changes in productivity, supply, employment, demand, exports, and price. Most industries have some ability to adapt to the changed climatic situation and so alleviate some of the worst consequences. An industry s short-term ability to cope with and manage climate change determines an industry s ability to adapt in the longer term.

24 Importance of Economic Factors for Adapting to Climate Change Microeconomic Macroeconomic Economic Sector Criteria Agriculture Forestry Energy Tourism Transportation Urban Systems Health Services Scope for: Limited / Intermediate / Considerable Management Change Int/Consid. Considerable Limited Considerable Considerable Intermediate Intermediate Output Change Intermediate Intermediate Limited Considerable N/A N/A Intermediate Structural Change Limited Limited Limited Limited Intermediate Considerable Intermediate Input Substitution Considerable Intermediate Considerable Limited Considerable Limited Considerable Policy Change Considerable Considerable Intermediate Limited Considerable Intermediate Considerable Financial/Institutiona l Change Considerable Considerable Considerable Intermediate Considerable Intermediate Considerable Process Change Considerable Limited Limited Considerable Intermediate Intermediate Considerable Importance of: Limited / Intermediate / Considerable Contribution to Provincial GDP Limited Limited Considerable Intermediate Intermediate Limited Intermediate Exports Considerable Considerable Considerable Intermediate N/A N/A Limited Employment Considerable Limited Considerable Considerable Considerable Considerable Considerable Social Capital Social vulnerability Considerable Considerable Limited Intermediate Limited Intermediate Considerable Natural Capital Linkages to: Limited / Intermediate / Considerable Biodiversity Considerable Considerable Intermediate Intermediate Limited Intermediate Intermediate Water Considerable Considerable Considerable Considerable Intermediate Considerable Considerable Soil Considerable Intermediate Limited Limited Limited Limited Limited Low / Medium / High Priority for Economic Research High Medium/High Medium Medium Low High/ Medium High

25 Biophysical Scenarios changes in the availability of water resources represent the most serous climate risk recent trends and future projections include lower summer stream flows, falling lake levels, retreating glaciers, and increasing soil and surface water deficits S now d epth stand ard ised anomaly 1 values are 5-year centred averages Eastern slopes/western Prairie snow depth in March 0 0 Demuth and Pietroniro, Peyto Glacier winter balance Winter balance departure (m w.e. a ) Lapp et al van der Kamp et al Relative Levels ( m ) Years Dry Dry Whitewater Lake (MB) Big Quill Lake (SK) Manito Lake (SK) Redberry Lake (SK) Upper Mann Lake (AB) Spring Lake (AB) Little Fish Lake (AB)

26 Biophysical Scenarios An increase in plant productivity with a longer and warmer growing season and in the absence of moisture limitations or other constraints; Substantial changes in forest disturbance regimes which could alter or destroy current forest ecosystems; A shift to another forest formation type, including grassland invasion, in all the prairie-parkland national parks (e.g. Elk Island National Park near Edmonton); Declines in migratory waterfowl populations with increased aridity and loss of wetlands; Increased stress on aquatic ecosystems from warmer and drier conditions; a large number of prairie aquatic species are at risk of extirpation;

27 Biophysical Scenarios (Cont) The boreal forest is the most vulnerable ecosystem and the transition from prairie to forest is especially climatically sensitive; A new suite of landscape ecosystems may be viable with climate change; for example, a drier climate in southern Alberta would potentially support shortgrass prairie which currently is found in Colorado and further south; and The future ecosystems of Alberta could be unprecedented in ecological history

28 Final Product Integrated report on biophysical, economic and social scenarios Priorities for further work Recommendations for action Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Alberta Target 2007/08

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