Chelan PUD. Energy Resources Quarterly Board Update. May 2, 2016

Transcription

1 Chelan PUD Energy Resources Quarterly Board Update May 2, 2016

2 Energy Planning & Trading 2016 Q1 Portfolio Overview (Gregg Carrington) Operations and Planning (Janet Jaspers) Snowpack, Streamflow and Pricing update Net Wholesale Revenue Forecast update Market Update (Janet Jaspers) Energy Efficiency Update (Andrew Grassell) 2

3 District s Load/Resource Balance (average MW) 1,100 1, Hedge Max Hedge Min 3

4 Current Market Position - Slice Products 25% Percent of RR/RI Sold 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Slice Product 26 - Morgan 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Slice Product 23 - TransAlta 5.0% Slice Product 22 - Avista 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Slice Product 18 - Exelon 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Slice Product 15 - Morgan 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Slice Product 11 - Morgan 2.5% 2.5% Slice Product 10 - Exelon 2.5% 2.5% 4

5 $250 Net Wholesale Revenue Projections $200 $194 Millions $150 $100 $50 $162 $126 $119 $123 $119 $123 $113 $107 $98 $87 $72 $48 $35 $

6 Columbia River Flow Update for

7 Water Supply Forecast 7

8 NOAA April- June Climate Forecast 8

9 Short term market info May 2016 Henry Hub natural gas price 1/2/2016 4/20/2016 4/20/16: $2.07 1/19/16: $2.25

10 Mid-C Flat Annual Wholesale Electricity Prices Red = Historical prices Blue = Forward price curve 10

11 $/MW $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 MIDC Flat Forward Price Curve (ICE DA index prices for previous months) /19/2016 1/14/ Budget (11/4/2015) 11

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13 Millions $170 $150 $130 $110 Net Wholesale Revenue Forecast Blue dashed line: NWR forecast using 11/4/15 ICE prices and E3 View for '21-'27 Black solid line: NWR forecast using ICE prices for /4/15 Q1 update 7/20/15 Q2 update $90 $70 10/19/15 Q3 update & 2/1/16 Q4 update Light pink line $50 $30 NWR forecast ($M_4/5/16) NWR forecast ($M_2016 Budget) Filled squares= prob. model White squares= det. model

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15 Market Info Combined-cycle gas tops coal utilization in 2015 For the first time, natural gas combined-cycle plants in the US eclipsed their coal plant counterparts in utilization rates in 2015, according to a new Energy Information Administration report Inslee signs bill to fund coal plant shutdown WA s largest utility will be able to set aside money to pay for the future shutdown of 2 coalpowered electricity plants it co-owns in MT under a bill signed by Inslee. Peabody Bankruptcy Peabody Energy, the largest coal company in the Western world, declared bankruptcy. The announcement is a towering sign that coal power likely has reached a point of no return in a world seeking cleaner energy sources. OR Senate Passes Landmark Energy Bill Sweeping energy bill that will rid the state of imported coal-fired generation in 2030 and increase RPS to 50% by WA draft Clean Air Rule (CAR) withdrawn WA s Dept. of Ecology will replace the draft rule with a new one in the spring. This decision was based on comments from private companies, utilities, and environmental groups.

16 Market Info Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPPC) adopts the 7 th NW Power Plan The Council s Seventh Power Plan addresses a variety of uncertainties and provides guidance on which resources can help ensure a reliable and economical regional power system over the next 20 years. These uncertainties cover everything from compliance with federal carbon dioxide emissions regulations, to future fuel prices, resource retirements, salmon recovery actions, economic growth, a growing need to meet peak demand, and how increasing renewable resources would affect the power system. The principle components of the power plan are energy efficiency, demand response, increased use of existing and new natural gas in the near term, and the development of renewable resources, said Tom Eckman, director of the NPCC's power division. 16

17 Energy Efficiency Results to Date 2016 Compliance Target is.83 amw Stretch Target was 2.1 amw Energy Efficiency Savings (amw)¹ Incentive and Labor Cost $/MWh over life Estimated Value over Life² 0.37 $ 582,000 $ $ 1,820,000 ¹Pending metering and verification and based on expected NEEA savings ²Based on weighted average life of the measure 17

18 Energy Efficiency/ Other Items Of Interest Customer engagement activities. 2014/2015 I-937 report due June 1 st. Continue to work with Fruit Warehouses impacted by fire. Improving monitoring and evaluation of heat pumps, duct sealing, and window installations. Executed two contracts to support commercial customers. 18

19 Summary The District s current 2016 Net Wholesale Revenue and other energy related revenue forecast ($122.6 Million) is higher than the budget amount for 2016 ($121.1 Million). Long term wholesale electricity prices have dropped significantly along with other energy commodities such as natural gas and crude oil. The District s resulting forecasted Net Wholesale Revenue has dropped for future years. The Energy Efficiency team continues to support customers locally and regionally to provide them value and save energy. Find out more at 19

20 Questions?