Adaptation to climate change

Transcription

1 Adaptation to climate change Adaptation in the UK at the local level Helsinki 10 th March 2011 Laurie Newton UK Climate Impacts Programme

2 Contents UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) UK climate change projections UKCIP methods and approaches UK policy context English local authorities Climate change initiatives and policy drivers Some of the methods used Examples of local work

3 The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) To help organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts. Established in 1997 Principally funded by Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Based at the Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford

4 UKCIP is a boundary organisation facilitates relationships between three groups of key actors

5 UK climate scenarios UK climate scenarios have been produced since 1991 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998, 2002 and 2009 Each version has become more detailed, building upon: improved scientific knowledge increased computing power stakeholder requirements Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCP09 UKCIPnext

6 UKCP09 improves quantification of uncertainty For a particular climate variable, emission scenario and time period Earlier scenarios said: there will be this much change UKCP09 say: based on our current understanding, there is % probability change will be between Probability % Amount of projected change

7 IPCC SRES emission scenarios High A1F Medium A1B Low B1

8 Seasonal mean temperature (2080 high emissions)

9 Change in mean summer temperatures (2050s) Wider range

10 UKCP09 resources

11 Probabilistic climate projections Probabilistic climate information can be visualised in a variety of ways: 8 Maps 6 PDFs Probability % per 0.1 deg C Smaller Larger Change 100 Probability % CDFs Plumes 20 0 Smaller Larger Change

12 The core messages from UKCP09 are similar to previous UK climate scenarios Annual / seasonal averages Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too) Milder, wetter winters Rising sea levels Seasonal shifts Extremes More very hot days More intense downpours of rain Shorter return periods for high water levels at coast Uncertain changes in storms possible increase in winter

13 UKCIP risk framework

14 Some of UKCIP s tools

15 Social and political context for adaptation in UK Stern Review Recent extreme weather events Pitt Review on flooding Climate Change Act 2008 Nottingham Declaration Partnership LGA Commission on Climate Change Introduction of a performance framework for local authorities

16 Local authority structures in England There are a total 353 local authorities in the England falling into 3 types: 28 County Councils (upper tier) 201 District Councils (lower tier) 124 Unitary Authorities including: 33 London Boroughs 36 Metropolitan Boroughs

17 Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change The Nottingham Declaration is a voluntary pledge to address the issues of climate change. It represents a high-level, broad statement of commitment that any council can make to its own community. 100 Councils signed the First Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change launched in 2000 Second National Councils Conference on Climate Change was held December 2005 to launch new version of the Nottingham Declaration More than 90% of English councils have now signed The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack was released July 2006 UKCIP wrote the adaptation strand

18

19

20 Local authority performance framework (April 2008) NI188: Planning to adapt to climate change Level 0: Baseline Level 1: Public commitment and prioritised risk-based assessment Level 2: Level 3: Comprehensive risk-based assessment and prioritised action in some areas Comprehensive action plan and prioritised action in all priority areas Level 4: Implementation, monitoring and continuous review

21 NI188 self-assessment returns 2009/10 Region Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Total East Midlands East of England London North East North West South East South West West Midlands Yorks and Humber Totals

22 Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) Assessing current vulnerability 1. Research journalistic sources a record of the real experience of actual weather events and their impacts in the locality over last 5 years 2. Share headlines and identify thresholds inform senior managers of main incidents in their area identify key thresholds for critical weather variables 3. Assemble data about future weather and climate formulate details of critical thresholds to interrogate future climate scenarios to provide data for technical adaptation decisions. 4. Make historical comparisons if you want!

23 Road damage in Oxfordshire 2006 High temperatures 34.8 o C on 19 th July create sticky conditions on more than 37 roads over two day period. Consequences: Some roads permanently damaged by heat Some roads impassable so road closures across county Responses Extensive diversions in place. Gritters sent out to treat damaged roads. Slippery road signs erected until surface texture can be restored. Heat damage initial estimates 3.6m, and expected to rise when full costs calculated.

24 Weather and climate Climate is what you expect weather is what you get! Climate R.A. Heinlein 1973 the average weather in a locality (by convention over a thirty year period) Weather what it is doing outside right now Max temp, Summer av Days of ground frost Winter av., It is mainly extreme weather events, and their impacts, that present risks to society. Oxford Eastern By-Pass: October 11th 2006

25 Weather, impacts and consequences Consequence Impact Consequence Climate/weather event Impact Consequence Consequence Consequence Impact Consequence Consequences may vary for different receptors

26 Some factors to consider in identifying climate impacts People: implications for workforce, customers/clients and changing lifestyles Demand: changing demand for services Premises: impacts on building design, construction, maintenance and facilities management Process: impacts on the processes of service delivery Finance: implications for investment, insurance and stakeholder reputation Logistics: vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure Management implications: how will climate risks and impacts be managed effectively?

27 Main impacts on the built environment in the UK Flooding Coastal Fluvial Surface water Ground water Increased summer temperatures Averages Extremes Water scarcity/stress Ground conditions Possible increases in storm damage

28 Two broad types of adaptation responses Building Adaptive Capacity (BAC) undertaking research, institutional change, education and training, creating standards and legislation, management, and resources developing policies, plans, strategies Delivering Adaptation Actions (DAA) building flood defences or managing retreat putting more nails in a roof tile, increasing the diameter of a drain creating siesta times in a business or locality

29 Adaptation strategy for London

30 Some design guides for the built environment

31 Refurbishment of Redhill School Worcestershire

32 Using green infrastructure Restoration of River Quaggy, Sutcliffe Park Greenwich Managing soil erosion

33 Managing flood risks Upton, near Northampton

34 Adaptation of built environment Chiswick Business Park, London Irrigation of green space by collected rainwater Chavasse Park, Liverpool

35 Adaptation and Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARCC) ARCADIA: Adaptation and Resilience in Cities: Analysis and Decision making using Integrated Assessment ARCC-Water: Water System Resilience BIOPICCC: Built Infrastructure for Older People in Conditions of Climate Change COPSE: Coincident Probabilistic climate change weather data for a Sustainable built Environment CREW: Community Resilience to Extreme Weather De2RHECC : Design & Delivery of Robust Hospital Environments in a Changing Climate DOWNPIPE: The use of probabilistic climate scenarios in decision making for adaptation of building and property drainage (Design Of Water Networks using ProbabilistIc PrEdiction) FUTURENET: Future Resilient Transport Networks ITRC: The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium LUCID: The Development of a Local Urban Climate Model and its Application to the Intelligent Development of Cities Low Carbon Future: Decision support for building adaptation in a low carbon climate change future PROCLIMATION: The use of probabilistic climate scenarios in building environmental performance simulation PROMETHEUS: The use of probabilistic climate data to future proof design decisions in the buildings sector SCORCHIO: Sustainable Cities: Options for Responding to Climate Change Impacts and Outcomes SNACC: Suburban neighbourhood adaptation for a changing climate: identifying effective, practical and acceptable means of suburban re-design

36 Nested adaptation areas International National Regional County District Site Modified from Preston, B.L. and Stafford-Smith, M. (2009).

37

38