Thomas Chrissley Morgan Yang Connor Maloy Anthony Mason. Design of Marine Debris Removal System

Transcription

1 Thomas Chrissley Morgan Yang Connor Maloy Anthony Mason Design of Marine Debris Removal System

2 MDRS 2 Context Analysis Marine Debris any persistent solid material that is manufactured or processed and directly or indirectly, intentionally or unintentionally, disposed of or abandoned in the marine environment Seven major types of debris: Plastic, metal, glass, paper, cloth, rubber, wood Other types are abandoned vessels and fishing gear Biggest impacts of marine debris: Wildlife harm, habitat damage, vessel damage, and economic loss

3 MDRS 3 Context Analysis The sources of the debris are either land or sea-based: 80% of the debris is land-based 20% of the debris is sea-based (fishing vessels, oil rigs, cargo ships, and cruise ships) world/midway-plastic-island/

4 MDRS 4 Context Analysis Movement of the debris is affected by wind, ocean currents, and gyres A gyre is a large system of rotating currents that spiral around a central point. There are five major gyres in the world: North and South Subtropical Pacific North and South Atlantic Indian The largest is the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, containing Great Pacific Garbage Patch (GPGP)

5 MDRS 5 Context Analysis The Subtropical Convergence Zone (SCZ) is made up for four major ocean currents and is located between California, Hawaii, and China: North Pacific California North Equatorial Kuroshio The area this project focuses on is the Subtropical Convergence Zone 7 million square miles, which is approximately 3.8 billion football fields side by side

6 White: Buoys Blue: Simulated particles

7 Stakeholder Analysis Tragedy of the Commons No stakeholder would stop the cleanup MDRS 7 Primary Stakeholder Risk Objective Conflict Marine Environment Entanglement, ingestion, habitat destruction Cleaner waters Harming wildlife when collecting debris Fishing Industry Lower fish quality, reduced amount of fish to sell Cleaner waters, healthier wildlife Marine Transportation Military damage, navigation hazard Less blockage for vessels interference Marine Transportation damage, navigation hazard Clearer waters and shipping lanes Insurance, fishing, harbors, resources Competition Loss of profit Profit Expenses Non-Profit Organizations Lack of funding Cleaner waters Expenses

8 MDRS 8 Problem Statement 8 million tons of debris in the ocean [1] Exponentially increases by 10% each year About 80% of the total debris is plastic waste Marine debris is harming the marine wildlife: Habitat damage, ingestion, food chain, and food supply Marine transportation and fishing industry are negatively impacted: damage, navigation hazards, increased costs in maintenance Cost of $1.2 billion yearly to the 21 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) members [2]

9 MDRS 9 Need Statement Mitigate the harmful effects of marine debris on the marine wildlife Debris must be removed from the ocean before irreversible damage is done to the planet A need for a vessels to traverse the ocean collecting the marine debris efficiently and safely

10 MDRS 10 Concept of Operations Deploy a vessel(s) in the vicinity of the marine debris such that it can collect the debris efficiently Debris must then be retrieved and disposed of or repurposed

11 MDRS 11 Concept of Operations Deploy Positions MDRS in a location within the SCZ Collect Removes the marine debris from the marine environment into a collection area Retrieve Empties the debris from MDRS to transport it back to land Dispose Recycles or disposes of the marine debris

12 MDRS 12 Requirements 1. MDRS shall focus on the surface debris - everything with 3 meters deep 2. MDRS shall produce no extra debris 3. MDRS shall not harm any pre-existing ecosystem 4. MDRS shall remove 150,000,000 kg per year

13 MDRS 13 Functional Requirements 1. MDRS shall deploy the system within the SCZ 2. MDRS shall collect the debris from the marine environment into a collection area 3. MDRS shall retrieve the debris and transport it back to land 4. MDRS shall properly dispose of the debris

14 MDRS 14 Design - Technology Alternatives Deploy Collect Retrieve Dispose Fossil Fuel Propulsion Electric Propulsion Ocean Currents Propulsion Wind and Ocean Currents Propulsion Vacuum Barge Landfills Conveyor Belts Recycling Nets - Incinerator - - -

15 New Existing MDRS 15 Design Alternatives The proposed solution is Marine Debris Removal System with seven design alternatives Alternatives 1-4 use technology that already exist, while alternatives 5-7 are concepts developed for this project 1. Autonomous Vacuum (AV) 2. Barge with Autonomous Surface Vehicle (B-ASV) 3. Barge with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (B-UAV) 4. with Nets (VN) 5. Artificial Floating Island (AFI) 6. Artificial Floating Island with Sail (AFI-S) 7. Artificial Floating Island with Motor (AFI-M)

16 MDRS 16 Design Alternatives Overview AV B-ASV B-UAV VN AFI AFI-S AFI-M Deploy Fossil Fuel Electric Ocean Current Wind and Ocean Current Collect Vacuum Conveyer Belt Nets Retrieve Barge Dispose Landfill Recycle Incinerators

17 MDRS 17 Autonomous Vacuum (AV) Deploy Collect Retrieve Dispose Electric propulsion Vacuum Landfill, recycle, incinerators SeaVax_Ocean_Clean_Up_Robot_Drone_Ship_Sea_Vacuum.htm Cost of one Alternative Fleet Lifecycle Number Collection Method Storage Method Alternative Capacity Rate of Removal Alternative Charge Time Alternative Maintenan Maintenan Autono Operational Time ce Cost ce Time mous Type Cost Operat ional Cost Fuel Cost Fuel Time Total Alternative Lifecycle Cost Units Dollars Number Years Technology Place Kilograms Kilograms /Day Hours Hours Dollars/Ye ar Hours Yes/No Type Dollars Dollars /Year Dollars /Day Hours Dollars/Lifecycle AV $3,000, Vacuum AV 136,000 5, $30, Yes $3,214,000

18 MDRS 18 Barge with Autonomous Surface Vehicles (B-ASV) Deploy Collect Retrieve Dispose Electric propulsion Vacuum Barge Landfill, recycle, incinerators Cost of one Alternative Collection Method Storage Method Alternative Capacity Rate of Removal Units Dollars Number Years Technology Place Kilograms Kilograms /Day B- ASV $76, Vacuum Barge Alternative Charge Time Hours Alternative Operational Time Hours Fleet Lifecycle Number Maintenance Cost Dollars /Year Maintenance Time mous Autono Type Cost Hours Yes/No Type Dollars Dollars /Year Operational Fuel Cost Fuel Time Cost Dollars /Day Hours Total Alternative Lifecycle Cost Dollars/Lifecycle 12 3 $3,750 5 Yes Barge $400,00 $4, $4,737,500 0

19 MDRS 19 Barge with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (B-UAV) Deploy Collect Retrieve Dispose Electric propulsion Nets Barge Landfill, recycle, incinerators images/single/pd6-aw/04.jpg Cost of one Alternative Collection Method Storage Method Alternative Capacity Rate of Removal Units Dollars Number Years Technology Place Kilograms Kilograms /Day B- UAV $5, Net Barge 20 2,700 Alternative Charge Time Hours Alternative Operational Time Hours Fleet Lifecycle Number Maintenance Cost Dollars /Year Maintenance Time mous Autono Type Cost Hours Yes/No Type Dollars Dollars /Year Operational Fuel Cost Fuel Time Cost Dollars /Day Hours Total Alternative Lifecycle Cost Dollars/Lifecycle $280 3 Yes Barge $400,00 $4, $588,000 0

20 MDRS 20 with Nets (VN) Deploy Collect Retrieve Dispose Fossil fuel propulsion Nets Landfill, recycle, incinerators Cost of one Alternative Collection Method Storage Method Alternative Capacity Rate of Removal Alternative Charge Time Alternative Operational Time Fleet Lifecycle Number Maintenance Cost Maintenance Time mous Autono Type Cost Operational Fuel Cost Fuel Time Cost Total Alternative Lifecycle Cost Units Dollars Number Years Technology Place Kilograms Kilograms /Day VN $1, Net 1,500 2,700 Hours Hours Dollars /Year Hours Yes/No Type Dollars Dollars /Year - 16 $2, No $31,000 $20,00,000 0 Dollars /Day Hours Dollars/Lifecycle $5, $32,848,100

21 MDRS 21 Artificial Floating Island (AFI) Deploy Collect Retrieve Dispose Ocean current propulsion Conveyer belts Landfill, recycle, incinerators Cost of one Alternative Collection Method Storage Method Alternative Capacity Rate of Removal Units Dollars Number Years Technology Place Kilograms Kilograms /Day Alternative Charge Time Hours Alternative Operational Time Hours Fleet Lifecycle Number Maintenance Cost Dollars /Year Maintenance Time mous Autono Type Cost Hours Yes/No Type Dollars Dollars /Year Operational Fuel Cost Fuel Time Cost Dollars /Day Hours Total Alternative Lifecycle Cost Dollars/Lifecycle AFI $500, Conveyor Belt AFI 150,000 1, $5, Yes $540,000

22 MDRS 22 Artificial Floating Island with Sail (AFI-S) Deploy Collect Retrieve Dispose Wind and ocean current propulsion Conveyer belts Landfill, recycle, incinerators Cost of one Alternative Collection Method Storage Method Alternative Capacity Rate of Removal Units Dollars Number Years Technology Place Kilograms Kilograms /Day AFI-S $550, Conveyor Belt AFI-S 150,000 2,000 Alternative Charge Time Hours Alternative Operational Time Hours Fleet Lifecycle Number Maintenance Cost Dollars /Year Maintenance Time mous Autono Type Cost Hours Yes/No Type Dollars Dollars /Year Operational Fuel Cost Fuel Time Cost Dollars/ Day Hours Total Alternative Lifecycle Cost Dollars/Lifecycle - 24 $5, Yes $594,000

23 MDRS 23 Artificial Floating Island with Motor (AFI-M) Deploy Collect Retrieve Dispose Electric and ocean current propulsion Conveyer belts Landfill, recycle, incinerators Cost of one Alternative Fleet Life Number cycle Collection Method Storage Method Alternative Capacity Rate of Removal Units Dollars Number Years Technology Place Kilograms Kilograms /Day AFI- M $600, Conveyor Belt In Alternativ e 150,000 2,700 Alternative Charge Time Hours Alternative Operational Time Hours Maintenance Cost Dollars /Year Maintenance Time Autono mous Type Cost Hours Yes/No Type Dollars Dollars /Year Operational Fuel Cost Fuel Time Cost Dollars /Day Hours Total Alternative Lifecycle Cost Dollars/Lifecycle - 24 $6, Yes $648,000

24 MDRS 24 Wind Data (NOAA Buoys) #YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES ATMP ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE #yr mo dy hr mn degt m/s m/s m/s m sec sec degt hpa degc degc degc degc mi ft

25 MDRS 25 Calculated Ocean Current Speed Date Time Wind Stress Current Density Current Viscosity Current Speed 6/18/ :30 AM /18/ :40 AM /18/ :50 AM /18/ :00 PM /18/ :10 PM /18/ :20 PM /18/ :30 PM /18/ :40 PM /18/ :50 PM /18/2016 1:00 PM /18/2016 1:10 PM /18/2016 1:20 PM /18/2016 1:30 PM /18/2016 1:40 PM /18/2016 1:50 PM /18/2016 2:00 PM /18/2016 2:10 PM /18/2016 2:20 PM /18/2016 2:30 PM /18/2016 2:40 PM /18/2016 2:50 PM /18/2016 3:00 PM /18/2016 3:10 PM /18/2016 3:20 PM /18/2016 3:30 PM /18/2016 3:40 PM T = C D ρ V 2 V 0 = Wind Stress C D = Coefficient of Drag ρ = density of air V = velocity of wind Ocean Surface Current Velocity T 2μρωsinφ ρ = density of water μ = Viscosity of water φ = latitude ω = angular velocity of Earth

26 MDRS 26 Ocean Current Data Wind Speed Mean: 7.23 m/s Standard Deviation: 3.46 m/s Wind Stress Mean: N Standard Deviation: N Ocean Current Speed Mean: m/s Standard Deviation: m/s

27 MDRS 27 Simulation Functional Diagram The objective of the simulation is to estimate the time, cost and efficiency of each design alternative given the same inputs.

28 MDRS 28 Design of Experiment Input Output Alternative Fleet Speed (kn) Collection Rate of Removal (μ,σ) (kg/day) Cost ($) Time (Years) AV 1 2 Vacuum 5000, 575 $3,447,100,000 B-ASV 50 1 Vacuum 248, 140 $17,900,000,000 B-UAV Nets 4503, 9 $57,335,000 VN 1 2 Nets 2650, 2100 $48,006,000,000 AFI Conveyor Belts 1000, 100 $16,995,000,000 AFI-S 1 7 Conveyor Belts 2000, 200 $11,368,000,000 AFI-M 1 5 Conveyor Belts 2700, 275 $5,703,600,000 1,432 72,500 1,522 3,688 8,219 5,479 2,740

29 MDRS 29 Simulation Results AV Rate of Removal Mean: 5000 kg/day Standard Deviation: 575 kg/day 10,000 replications run This is the alternative with the highest rate of removal

30 Simulation Results B-ASV Rate of Removal MDRS 30 No Fleet Mean: 9.86 kg/day Standard Deviation: 2.78 kg/day Fleet of 50 Mean: kg/day Standard Deviation: kg

31 Simulation Results B-UAV Rate of Removal MDRS 31 No Fleet Mean: kg/day Standard Deviation: 2.93 kg/day Fleet of 100 Mean: 4503 kg/day Standard Deviation: 9.28 kg/day

32 MDRS 32 Simulation Results VN Rate of Removal Mean: 2650 kg/day Standard Deviation: 2100 kg/day

33 MDRS 33 Simulation Results AFI, AFI-S, and AFI-M AFI AFI S AFI M Mean: 1000 kg/day Standard Deviation: 100 kg/day Mean: 2000 kg/day Standard Deviation: 200 kg/day Mean: 2700 kg/day Standard Deviation: 275 kg/day

34 MDRS 34 Optimization The time was set for 50 years. Alternatives Optimal Number Cost ($) AV 26 $ 7,662,378,082 B-ASV 487 $ 27,986,118,722 B-UAV 29 $ 4,781,004,566 VN 49 $ 31,703,072,146 AFI 132 $ 13,995,616,438 AFI-S 66 $ 9,416,712,329 AFI-M 49 $ 8,241,095,890

35 MDRS 35 Utility Analysis - Attributes Category Capacity Rate of Removal Eco Friendly Life Cycle Reliability Security TRL Definition Amount of debris the alternative can hold Rate at which the alternative can remove debris (Simulation) Alternative does not harm the environment (Subjective) Life expectancy of the alternative Consistency of the alternative (Subjective) Risk of the alternative being used for a different purpose (Subjective) Technology readiness level

36 Utility Analysis MDRS 36

37 Utility MDRS 37 Utility vs. Cost [CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF] AV 5 4 [CELLREF] AFI-M 3 [CELLREF] Cost (Billions) AFI-S

38 MDRS 38 Sensitivity Analysis This shows how performance is the major factor in weight of each alternative. The better the performance the higher the utility.

39 MDRS 39 Sensitivity Analysis Weight on performance does not change the outcome.

40 MDRS 40 Sensitivity Analysis Shows the percent weight on Risk goal.

41 MDRS 41 Recommendations The best options on AV, AFI-M, and AFI-S, due to the proximity on utility analysis To further expand this project, we recommend combining different alternatives together

42 MDRS 42 Business Case Types of Costs Cost of Alternative Cost of each, modifications, charging station, maintenance, operational cost Cost of Cost of each, fuel, modifications, operational cost (crew, maintenance, harboring) Debris Handling Landfill, incinerator, recycle

43 Business Case Costs MDRS 43

44 MDRS 44 Business Case - Potential Types of Revenue Electricity sales Waste-to-Energy (Burn Generator) Landfill Gas (Methane Burn Generator) Recycle sales Sales of Services

45 Business Case - Revenue MDRS 45

46 MDRS 46 Business Case Break Even The break even point is not attainable from debris revenue alone The greatest optimistic revenue, without site costs, comes to $371 million while MPL Total Design Cost comes to $7.66 billion Without electricity sales revenues and costs, optimistic total revenue still comes to $320 million The break even point however is attainable when including significant sales of the service to industries form multiple nations affected The APEC nations report yearly losses totaling $364 million in fishing industries and $279 million in shipping industries from marine debris If the APEC nations donated 25% of these costs per year for MDRS to remove the debris, $8.39 billion in revenues can be made over the 50 years

47 MDRS 47 Break-Even Point $9,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $7,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 $5,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000 $3,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $0 Break-Even Years Costs Revenue

48 Break-Even Point $9,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $7,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 $5,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000 $3,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $1,000,000,000 Break-Even $8,392,700,000 $8,020,330,000 MDRS 48 $ Costs Revenue

49 Questions? 49

50 MDRS 50 References [1] [2]

51 Appendix 51

52 Total Alternative Lifecycle Cost Dollars/ Lifecycle $4,737,500 $588,000 $2,600 $3,240,000 $540,000 $594,000 $648,000 Units B-ASV B-UAV VN AV AFI AFI-S AFI-M MDRS 52 Cost of one Alternative Dollars $76,000 $5,600 $1,100 $3,000,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 Fleet number Number Lifecycle Years Collection Method Technology Vacuum Scoop Net Vacuum Conveyor Belt Conveyor Belt Conveyor Belt In Storage Method Place Barge Barge Ship In Alternative In Alternative Alternative In Alternative Alternative Capacity Kilograms , , , , ,000 Rate of Removal Kilograms/ Day 270 4,500 2,700 5,000 1,000 2,000 2,700 Alternative Charge Time Hours Alternative Operational Time Hours Maintenance Cost Dollars/Year $3,750 $280 $2,000 $30,000 $5,000 $5,500 $6,000 Maintenance Time Hours Autonomous Yes/No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Type Type Barge Barge Ship Cost Dollars $400,000 $400,000 $21,000, Operational Cost Dollars/Year $4,000 $4,000 $20, Fuel Cost Dollars - - $5,000/day Fuel Time Time hours

53 MDRS 53 Ekman Spiral φ = latitude Coriolis Force = 2 ω sin φ ω = angular velocity of the earth f = Coriolis Force ρ = fluid density v = kinematic viscosity p = pressure Ekman Layer { +fu = 1 p ρ 0 y + v 2 v z 2 fv = 1 p ρ 0 x + v 2 u z 2

54 MDRS 54 Simulation Assumptions used Cost Capacity Operationa l Cost Fuel Cost Refueling Time Lifecycle Barge Cost Barge Lifecycle Barge Operational Cost UAV Charge Time UAV Flight Time UAV Payload Capacity Assumption Capesize 21,000, ,000 $20,000 $10, $300, $4, to 30 0 to 20 Units Dollars tons Dollars Dollars Hours Years Dollars Years Dollars Hours Minutes Kilograms UAV Lifecycle UAV Operational Cost ASV Capacity ASV Charge Time ASV Lifecycle ASV Operational Cost AV Lifecycle AV Operational Cost AV Capacity Nets Length Nets Width Nets Height Nets Cost Nets Lifecycle Assumption 1 $ $3,750 8 $30, $ Units Year Dollars Kilograms Hours Years Dollars Years Dollars Kilograms Meters Meters Meters Per square meter Years

55 MDRS 55 Overall Equations Name of Equation Rate of removal Time to remove all Overall Equation Amount/time ((weight/r)/365)+et # Alternative to finish in 50 years TR/50 Cost for 1 Cost for optimal (50 years) Gyre growth MPL (((TR/L)*ci)+(TR*co)) ((5*ci)*n)+(n*(25*co)) x(y) = x(y-1) + (x(y-1)*0.2) Cost = Cai*La*xn + Cao*t*xn + Csi*Ls*xn + Cso*t*xn Coriolios Force/Effect f = 2w(sin(phi)) Ekman Layer Ekman Layer -fv = -(1/r0)(dp/dx) + (d/dz)(a*(du/dz)) fu = -(1/r0)(dp/dy) + (d/dz)(a*(dv/dz))

56 MATLAB Code MDRS 56

57 MPL Code MDRS 57