Air Pollution from Ground Transportation. Roger Gorham Global Initiative on Transport Emissions

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1 Air Pollution from Ground Transportation Roger Gorham Global Initiative on Transport Emissions

2 Paper Purpose Help the Secretariat work through issues in preparation for CSD-9 Provide background and input for strategy development for GITE Identify significant needs for the international community

3 Themes in GITE Background Paper Approaches to motorization Ability to predict and track emissions Integrating environment and emissions into investment & planning decisions Integrating local and global concerns in policy assessment and formulation Coordination & stabilization of regulatory environments in DCs Knowledge sharing and analytic support

4 Themes in GITE Background Paper Approaches to motorization Ability to predict and track emissions Integration of environment/emissions considerations into investment/planning decisions Integrating local and global concerns into assessment and policy Coordination/stabilization of regulatory environments in DCs Knowledge sharing and analytic support

5 Common Assumptions About Motorization Mobility generates economic development Car Use = Car Ownership Pricing: not a viable or realistic policy option to address motorization in DCs Adoption of motor vehicle technology in DCs: purely a question of affordability

6 Mobility Mobility is a derived demand Accessibility to goods, services, activity participation, and social interaction 4 kinds of accessibility Mobility Proximity Virtuality Nodality Accessibility key to economic development

7 Common Assumptions About Motorization Mobility generates economic development Car Use = Car Ownership Pricing: not a viable or realistic policy option to address motorization in DCs Adoption of motor vehicle technology in DCs: purely a question of affordability

8 Car Use and Car Ownership Cars/1000 people 600 Trends in Car Ownership in Developed Countries by Income U.S. Japan France W. Germany Italy G.Britain/UK Sweden Denmark Australia Netherlands Canada Per Capita GDP, 1990 USD Converted at Purchasing Power Parity

9 Car Use and Car Ownership Vehicle Km (cars and household light trucks)/ Capita Trends in Car Use in Developed Countries by Income U.S Japan W. Germany 6000 G.Britain/UK Sweden 4000 Denmark Australia 2000 Netherlands Canada Per Capita GDP, 1990 USD Converted at Purchasing Power Parity

10 Common Assumptions About Motorization Mobility generates economic development Car Use = Car Ownership Pricing: not a viable or realistic policy option to address motorization in DCs Adoption of motor vehicle technology in DCs: purely a question of affordability

11 Pricing: Variable v. Fixed Fixed costs are one-time or time-dependent (recurring) costs e.g. cost of vehicle, taxes, insurance, vehicle storage Variable costs are use-related costs e.g. fuel, wear-and-tear, parking charges Lifetime costs are sum of the above Variabilizing costs means shifting proportion of lifetime costs from fixed to variable Fixed costs Average price logic Variable costs Marginal price logic

12 Common Assumptions About Motorization Mobility generates economic development Car Use = Car Ownership Pricing: not a viable or realistic policy option to address motorization in DCs Adoption of motor vehicle technology in DCs: purely a question of affordability

13 Motor Vehicle Technology Technology strategies for industrialized countries may not be appropriate for DCs Technologies which are unmarketable in industrialized countries may be well suited to DCs Relatively low purchasing power of DC markets hinders private-sector innovation for these markets

14 Themes in GITE Background Paper Approaches to motorization Ability to predict and track emissions Integration of environment/emissions considerations into investment/planning decisions Integrating local and global concerns into assessment and policy Coordination/stabilization of regulatory environments in DCs Knowledge sharing and analytic support

15 Tracking / Predicting Emissions Specific data needs Vehicle fleet and usage by vehicle type and purpose Emissions factors for different pollutants, by vehicle type Predict travel, by mode and purpose Technical capacity & resources in DCs are limited

16 Themes in GITE Background Paper Approaches to motorization Ability to predict and track emissions Integration of environment/emissions considerations into investment/planning decisions Integrating local and global concerns into assessment and policy Coordination/stabilization of regulatory environments in DCs Knowledge sharing and analytic support

17 Integrating Environment into Planning Process Historically, environmental concerns not taken into account at all; or used to define mitigation options Growing recognition that environment needs to be an integral part of the planning process Recognition of environmental and economic value of choice as element of transport system

18 Measures to Integrate Environment Subordinate infrastructure investment to long-term growth and development needs Analyze long-run costs and benefits of different scenarios for infrastructure deployment to meet needs Take into account the effects of induced travel, cumulative effects of facility development, and land-use changes resulting from infrastructure development

19 Themes in GITE Background Paper Approaches to motorization Ability to predict and track emissions Integration of environment/emissions considerations into investment/planning decisions Integrating local and global concerns into assessment and policy Coordination/stabilization of regulatory environments in DCs Knowledge sharing and analytic support

20 Integrating Global and Local Behavioral strategies get at both without tradeoff Question under Kyoto mechanisms: how is CO 2 allocated? What is the baseline? Ability of transport sector to compete with other sectors for GHG funds Critical to viability of CDM

21 Themes in GITE Background Paper Approaches to motorization Ability to predict and track emissions Integration of environment/emissions considerations into investment/planning decisions Integrating local and global concerns into assessment and policy Coordination/stabilization of regulatory environments in DCs Knowledge sharing and analytic support

22 Stabilizing Regulatory Environments Participation of the private sector is critical to long-term, sustainable changes in transport sector Private sector role in vehicle manufacturing, importing, operations, fuel refining, land development Private sector craves Predictability Scalability

23 Themes in GITE Background Paper Approaches to motorization Ability to predict and track emissions Integration of environment/emissions considerations into investment/planning decisions Integrating local and global concerns into assessment and policy Coordination/stabilization of regulatory environments in DCs Knowledge sharing and analytic support

24 Sharing Knowledge Information generated, lessons learned, best practices from on-the-ground experience Sources of finance Capacity-building for integrated assessment Policy approaches Strategic -- well disseminated Tactical -- not well disseminated

25 Policy approaches Strategic Technical Systemic Behavioral Tactical Whom can be influenced, and how Opportunistic interventions

26 Tactical Approaches: Target Groups Fuel consumers Vehicle users Vehicle operators Travelers and shippers Vehicle purchasers Vehicle manufacturers and importers Vehicle owners and fleet managers Fuel refiners, importers, and retailers Developers and planners Households and firms Public attitudes and opinions

27 Critical Needs for International Community Strategies for motorization Development of innovative strategies to address motorization Better identification and targeting of technological solutions for developing country contexts Institutional development for data Harmonization of transport data tracking and reporting Must encompass both emissions and activity, inventories and projections

28 Critical Needs for International Community Capacity-building for integration of local and global concerns in policy assessment and formulation Methods to assess ancillary costs and benefits and allocate CO 2 credits Assisting DCs access climate financing for transport projects

29 Critical Needs for International Community Preventing fragmentation of markets in development of emissions and fuel quality standards and regulations Knowledge sharing and analytic support Concerted and consistent support to eliminate the use of lead as a fuel additive by 2010, consistent with the Cairo Declaration Dissemination of best tactics, as well as best strategies Emphasis on accessibility and choice in transportation policy

Automobility in Brazil, Russia, India, and China A collaborative study by the RAND Corporation and the Institute for Mobility Research

Automobility in Brazil, Russia, India, and China A collaborative study by the RAND Corporation and the Institute for Mobility Research Charlene Rohr Presentation to the Konrad Adenauer Foundation 18 February