Developing low C policies: a step-by-step manual and illustrative modeling examples

Transcription

1 2 nd Capacity Building Workshop 21/3/2014, Zagreb, Croatia Developing low C policies: a step-by-step manual and illustrative modeling examples Elena Georgopoulou Sebastian Mirasgedis Yannis Sarafidis NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS

2 Structure of presentation Part A. Structure and content of the Step-by-step Manual for developing low C policies Part B. Focus on the estimation of the technical and economic potential of PaMs (modeling)

3 Part A. Structure and content of the Step-by-step Manual for developing low C policies

4 Aim of the Manual The Manual aims to assist SEE countries (but also other countries) in the process of joining the EU to develop, implement and monitor low C policies and measures Guide describing the basic steps to follow Takes into account real problems and barriers faced Concise and readable (does not enter into too much technical detail on each topic/ sub-topic, but provides examples and references for further reading)

5 Structure of the Manual Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Analyzing the broader scene regarding climate change mitigation Chapter 3: Background analysis Examining past trends and current situation of GHG emissions Chapter 4: Assessing the potential and impacts of low carbon measures Chapter 5: Developing projections of GHG emissions Chapter 6: Selecting low carbon targets and appropriate measures and policies Chapter 7: Implementation and monitoring of policies and measures

6 Chapter 2: Analyzing the broader scene on CC mitigation Basic categories of commitments: (a) Commitments deriving from international agreements (UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, others) EU enlargement (b) Commitments deriving from EU legal acts (e.g. the Climate and Energy Package, which has transformed EU pledges for the period of the Kyoto Protocol into a legally binding target) EC proposal (Jan 2014) A policy framework for climate and energy from 2020 to 2030 : 40% reduction of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to 1990 (ETS: -43% and non-ets: -30% compared to 2005, RES: 27%, EE: +nq)

7 Chapter 2: Analyzing the broader scene on climate change EU legal acts on: GHG monitoring and reporting Emissions Trading Scheme (EU- ETS) Carbon Capture and Storage Transport and Fuels Renewable Energies Energy Efficiency (incl. CHP) Challenging and demanding set of commitments, both for now as well as for the mid-term future

8 Chapter 3: Examining past trends and current situation of GHG emissions On the basis of IPCC Guidelines, UNFCCC and EU decisions Basic principles in developing GHG emissions inventories Greenhouse gases and Sources / Sinks of GHG emissions / removals to be considered Overview of changes / additions introduced by 2006 IPCC Guidelines GHG emissions / removals estimation methods How to select appropriate estimation methods Dealing with data sources and data availability Calculation tools o The IPCC inventory software application Updating estimations and maintaining consistency (Recalculations) Reporting templates and indicators to be estimated under EU legal acts With a view to establish a National Inventory System which will be operational when joining the EU

9 Chapter 4: Assessing the potential and impacts of low carbon measures (I) Measures vs. Policies: Measures are technologies, processes, and practices that reduce GHG emissions below anticipated future levels. The development of a wind farm, the installation of double glazed windows in a building, etc. Policies are taken and/or mandated by a government - often in conjunction with business and industry within its own country, or with other countries - or local authorities to accelerate mitigation measures. The implementation of feed-in tariffs for enhancing the penetration of RES, the implementation of building thermal regulation, etc.

10 Chapter 4: Assessing the potential and impacts of low carbon measures (II) A review of the most important mitigation technologies per sector Basic characteristics for selecting mitigation measures: CC mitigation effectiveness (potential for reducing GHG emissions) Cost-effectiveness (economic performance) Implications on the society, the economy and the environment (cobenefits and co-risks) Other issues related to the ease of application, social acceptance, etc.

11 Chapter 5: Developing projections of GHG emissions Aim: To analyze future evolution of GHG emissions at national / sectoral level through scenarios Scope: To estimate the combined effects of mitigation measures To evaluate the effectiveness of various policies aiming at promoting specific GHG mitigation technologies To estimate the total and marginal costs on the economy associated with mitigation actions To investigate the role of carbon markets or the opportunities to mobilize market forces in order to implement low cost mitigation actions

12 Chapter 5: Developing projections of GHG emissions Scenarios to be considered: With Measures, With Additional Measures, Without Measures Other scenarios (Frozen technology, High / Low economic growth, High / Low energy prices, etc.)

13 Chapter 5: Developing projections of GHG emissions (III) Methodologies / tools Energy sector What policy questions are answered by each modeling approach. Short presentation of the most popular models used for energy analysis and GHG emissions projections (MARKAL, MARKAL-MACRO, EFOM, WASP, ENPEP/BALANCE, LEAP, NEMS, PRIMES, GACMO, STAIR) (source: Duerinck et al. 2008)

14 Chapter 6: Selecting low carbon targets and appropriate measures and policies (I) Rationale in setting low C targets: Approach 1: Improving to some extent the present situation Approach 2: Fulfillment of legal commitments Approach 3: Moving fast towards a low carbon economy

15 Chapter 6: Selecting low carbon targets and appropriate measures and policies Step 1: Examine the marginal cost curve when only private costs and benefits are included in the economic analysis Step 1.1: Step 1.2: Identify measures having a negative unit cost (i.e. net benefit) win-win measures Win-win under all circumstances ( Solid win-win measures) Win-win under a high interest rate regardless of the rest remaining conditions ( Solid private win-win measures) Rest measures ( Uncertain win-win measures) Explore measures having a positive unit cost Becoming win-win under favorable conditions and a high interest rate ( Promising private measures ) Presenting a net private cost regardless of the interest rate and conditions faced ( Low priority measures ) In between these 2 groups ( Medium priority measures ) Step 2: Examine the performance of potential GHG emission reduction measures by considering also external costs and benefits

16 Chapter 6: Selecting low carbon targets and appropriate measures and policies Formulating an Action Plan for achieving a target: Selected target and set of measures and policies Detailed time schedule for the implementation of selected measures Definition of the coordinator and the stakeholders to be involved in the implementation of each measure List of preparatory actions per measure Milestones per measure Indicators of progress per measure Methodology for calculating GHG emissions reductions achieved per measure during its implementation Public consultation Communication with stakeholders Adoption process

17 Chapter 7: Implementation and monitoring of policies and measures Evaluating progress and results achieved so far: Timeframe for the evaluation Data collection sources and process (indices) Methodological tools to be used for the evaluation Indicators reflecting the progress (expressed in physical terms) in implementing the selected low carbon measures (progress indicators) Indicators showing the GHG emissions reduction achieved through the implementation of selected low carbon measures (result indicators)

18 Chapter 7: Implementation and monitoring of policies and measures Reviewing and updating the mix of low carbon measures and related policies / How? The level of the target set for a specific measure was too ambitious/ too low compared to the dynamics of the market modify target The mix of policies for a specific measure failed to support the implementation of the measure to the extent foreseen modify mix of policies New potential low carbon measures/ technologies have emerged repeat measures evaluation and selection of support policies Update Action Plan and Monitoring Plan

19 Part B. Focus on the estimation of the technical and economic potential of PaMs (modeling) Part B1. Buildings (FYROM, Montenegro) Part B2. Transport (Croatia, Albania) Part B3. Wastes (Serbia)

20 Part B1. Buildings (FYROM, Montenegro)

21 Bottom-up Energy Model for the Buildings Sector Energy consumption is analyzed and broken down to specific activities (uses), technologies and energy sources related to GHG emissions Year 2010 is selected as the base year of the analysis Assumptions made are also extrapolated back to the year 2006 Model results are compared to Official Energy Balances both for 2006 and 2010 (assumptions are modified in order to achieve convergence) Projections of future energy demand and consumption (Reference Scenario) Model consists of two modules: Residential Sector Module Tertiary Sector Module

22 Structure of the Bottom-up Energy Model for Buildings Building types based on: Construction Period Building type for Residential Sector (detached houses, high-rise buildings with multiple apartments, seasonal use) Use for Tertiary sector (e.g. Schools/Educational buildings, Hospitals, Hotels etc.) (6-7 types for residential, 6-15 types for tertiary) Energy consumption of each category is simulated with 6 end-uses: Space heating (further categorized in central and individual heating systems in residential sector) Hot water Space cooling Cooking Lighting Electrical Appliances (5 types) Energy demand for each end-use is calculated: by applying methodologies which use typical meteorological data on the basis of existing information and data from international sectoral studies

23 Building Categories in FYROM Existing building stock in the FYROM regarding to the period of construction is divided into three categories : until 1980 (buildings with lot of reinforced concrete elements, without thermal insulation) and since 1980 (when first standards of thermal insulation was appeared) Buildings built according to the European standards on Energy Performance of Buildings Directive Regarding the type of the residential buildings two main categories are defined: low buildings with 1 or 2 floors (detached and semi-detached houses) and high residential buildings (with multiple apartments/flats) Regarding the type of the tertiary buildings five main categories are defined: Educational buildings Hospitals Hotels and accommodation facilities Restaurants Offices / Trade Stores

24 Building Categories in Montenegro Existing building stock in the FYR of Macedonia regarding to the period of erection is divided into three categories : until 1980 (buildings with lot of reinforced concrete elements, without thermal insulation) and since 1980 (when first standards of thermal insulation was appeared) Buildings built according to the European standards on Energy Performance of Buildings Directive Regarding the type of the residential buildings three main categories are defined: low buildings with 1 or 2 floors (detached and semi-detached houses) for permanent housing high residential buildings (with multiple apartments/flats) for permanent housing low buildings with 1 or 2 floors (detached and semi-detached houses) for seasonal use Regarding the type of the tertiary buildings two main categories are defined: Hotels and accommodation facilities Offices / Trade Stores

25 Data Sources FYROM: MAKStat Database of State Statistical Office Energy Balances, HH size, population etc. 1 st Energy Efficiency Action Plan (Ministry of Economy, 2011) Age of the existing building stock Household Consumption Survey (State Statistical Office, 2012) Energy devices in HHs (heating systems, cooling, hot water boilers, cooking ovens) Publications of the State Statistical Office (e.g. Accommodation capacity in catering trade and services 2011, Structural business statistics 2011 ): data for the tertiary Sector (e.g. total hospital area, number of educational buildings, total area of hotel building stock, number of overnights etc.) Montenegro: Statistical Office of Montenegro Database Energy balances, age of the existing building stock, tertiary Sector Data (e.g. number of hotels and accommodation facilities, number of employees etc.) 2011 Census of Population, Households, and Dwellings in Montenegro (Statistical Office, 2012) Population, HH Size The Household Budget Survey 2011 (Statistical Office of Montenegro 2012) Energy devices in HHs

26 Main elements defined for the purposes of the Reference Scenario Population growth Evolution of the average household size -> number of buildings, appliances etc. Evolution of the average dwelling size Changes in the residential building stock (buildings to be demolished/ abandoned/ renovated, new buildings) Evolution of the area of the tertiary sector buildings (hotels, hospitals, offices etc.) Conformity of new buildings (i.e. constructed after 2010) to European Standards (Directive 2002/91/EC on the Energy Performance of Buildings)

27 Main assumptions made in the Reference Scenario (I) FYROM: The population will decrease from million in 2006 to million in 2020 and to million in 2030 according to the UN demographic research The average HH size will decrease by 5% in each 5-yr period The average dwelling size will increase by 0.5% in each 5-yr period Residential buildings constructed before 1980 will be demolished / abandoned at an average annual rate of 0.5% over the entire study period The number of the residential buildings constructed between 1980 and 2010 will remain constant over the entire study period The area of the tertiary sector buildings (hotels, hospitals, offices etc.) increases by 4% annually in , 3% in and 2.5% in The area of the tertiary sector buildings constructed before 2010 remains constant over the entire period All buildings constructed after the year 2010 are constructed according to European Standards (Directive 2002/91/EC on the Energy Performance of Buildings)

28 Main assumptions made in the Reference Scenario (II) Montenegro: Annual rate of population growth: 0.16% (medium-growth scenario/ Energy Development Strategy by 2025, Ministry for Economic Development 2007) The average HH size will decrease by 2% in each 5-year period The average dwelling size will increase by an annual rate of 0.1% Residential buildings constructed before 1980 will be demolished/ abandoned at an average annual rate of 0.5% over the entire study period The number of the residential buildings constructed between 1980 and 2010 will remain constant over the entire study period All residential buildings constructed after the year 2010 will have diesel central heating systems; heat pumps are gradually installed in 25% of the existing (built by 2010) buildings without central heating The area of the tertiary sector buildings will increase by an annual rate of 3.25% for hotels and 2.5% for offices/trade sector The area of the tertiary sector buildings constructed before 2010 remains constant over the entire period All buildings constructed after the year 2010 are constructed according to European Standards (Directive 2002/91/EC on the Energy Performance of Buildings)

29 Reference Scenario Energy Use per fuel Residential Sector (FYROM) 500,00 Tertiary Sector (FYROM) ,00 ktoe Electricity Diesel LPG Natural gas Solar Wood Lignite District heating ktoe 300,00 200,00 100,00 0, Gas/Diesel oil Natural gas Electricity Solar LPG Geothermal Lignite Fuel oil District heating Wood 500 Residential Sector (Montenegro) 50,00 Tertiary Sector (Montenegro) ,00 ktoe ktoe 30,00 20, , , Electricity Diesel LPG Solar Wood Lignite Gas/Diesel oil Electricity Solar LPG Lignite Wood

30 Reference Scenario Energy Use per end use Residential Sector (FYROM) 500,00 Tertiary Sector (FYROM) ,00 ktoe ktoe 300,00 200, , Central Heating Individual Heating Cooking Hot water Space cooling Lighting Electric appliances 0, Space heating Lighting Space Cooling Hot water Electric Appliances Cooking 500 Residential Sector (Montenegro) 50,00 Tertiary Sector (Montenegro) ,00 ktoe ktoe 30,00 20, , Central Heating Individual Heating Cooking Hot water Space cooling Lighting Electric appliances 0, Space heating Lighting Space Cooling Hot water Electric Appliances Cooking

31 Reference Scenario GHG Emissions Residential Sector (FYROM) Tertiary Sector (FYROM) kt CO2eq kt CO2eq Direct Emissions Indirect Emissions Direct Emissions Indirect Emissions Residential Sector (Montenegro) 250 Tertiary Sector (Montnegro) kt CO2eq kt CO2eq Direct Emissions Indirect Emissions Direct Emissions Indirect Emissions

32 GHG Emissions Mitigation Measures examined 1. Use of double glazing with thermal breaks frames (R,T) 2. External wall thermal insulation (R,T) 3. Roof insulation (R,T) 4. Retrofitting of old diesel boilers (R,T) 5. Use of natural gas for central heating systems (R,T) 6. Installation of high efficiency air conditioning units (R,T) 7. Installation of solar collectors for hot water (R,T) 8. Promotion of energy efficient light bulbs (R,T) 9. Promotion of energy efficient household appliances (R,T) 10. Installation of thermostats and heating controllers in buildings with diesel central heating (R) 11. New energy efficient biomass stoves (R) 12. Installation of ceiling fans (R) 13. Installation of Building Management Systems (T) 14. Installation of heat pumps for space heating (T)

33 GHG Abatement Technical Potential 4.000,00 Residential Sector (FYROM) 2.000, ,00 104,53 201,89 279,10 336, ,00 388,22 420,40 443,26 460,34 475,04 485,23 493,54 495, , , , , , , , ,00 Tertiary Sector (FYROM) 182,60 255,03 301,73 343,97 373,16 390,76 408,14 424,06 435,20 442,73 444,17 kt CO2eq Reference Scenario Efficient appliances Efficient lighting Efficient AC Solar collectors Wall Insulation Natural gas boilers Roof insulation Efficient wood stoves Double glazing Retrofitting diesel boilers Ceiling fans Thermostats and heating controllers kt CO2eq Reference Scenario Efficient appliances Efficient lighting Natural gas boilers Wall Insulation BMS Efficient AC Double glazing Retrofitting diesel boilers Heat pumps Roof insulation Solar Collectors 800,00 750,00 700,00 650,00 600,00 550,00 500,00 Residential Sector (Montenegro) 21,30 41,79 61,50 79,77 96,60 113,26 126,54 136,49 140,17 180,00 170,00 160,00 150,00 140,00 130,00 120,00 Tertiary Sector (Montenegro) 14,48 20,29 24,04 26,91 29,68 31,60 33,04 34,37 35,07 35,69 kt CO2eq Reference Scenario Efficient appliances Wall insulation Efficient lighting Solar collectors Efficient wood stoves Efficient AC Roof insulation Double glazing Ceiling fans kt CO2eq Reference Scenario Efficient appliances Efficient lighting Wall Insulation Efficient AC BMS Heat pumps Retrofitting diesel boilers Double glazing Solar collectors Roof insulation Year ,0% 19,0% 24,1% 20,6%

34 GHG Abatement Cost Curve /t 600,00 400,00 200,00 0,00 200,00 400,00 600,00 Residential Sector (FYROM) kt CO2eq win- win : 45% of total GHG mitigation potential /t 800,00 600,00 400,00 200,00 0,00 400,00 600,00 800,00 Tertiary Sector (FYROM) 200,000,00 50,00 100,00 150,00 200,00 250,00 300,00 350,00 400,00 450,00 500,00 kt CO2eq win- win : 46% of total GHG mitigation potential /t 500,00 400,00 300,00 200,00 100,00 0,00 100,00 200,00 300,00 Residential Sector (Montenegro) kt CO2eq win- win : 50% of total GHG mitigation potential /t 1.000,00 800,00 600,00 400,00 200,00 0,00 400,00 Tertiary Sector (Montenegro) 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 200,00 kt CO2eq win- win : 27% of total GHG mitigation potential

35 Part B2. Transport (Croatia, Albania)

36 Structure of the Model for Transport (I) Base year: 2010 Period of analysis: Input data: Vehicles stock disaggregated by type, fuel, capacity and technology (in accordance with EU Directives) Mileage Activity patterns (e.g modal shares) Additional characteristics (e.g. average speed per vehicle category, passengers per vehicle etc.) Fuel characteristics (e.g NCV, density) Data sources: National Inventory reports Energy Balances Statistical agencies National transport action plans National or international sector studies Eurostat, EEA etc.

37 Structure of the Model for Transport (II) Step 1. Total fuel consumption for the whole sector and for a specific year is calculated bottom-up by taking into account the stock, fuel consumption and mileage per each type of vehicle: Stock FC: (Eq-1) fuel consumption, SFC: specific fuel consumption, Mileage: distance driven per car, Stock: number of cars Step 2. The calculated energy consumption is compared with the data provided in the relevant National Energy Balance. If necessary, modifications are made in order to minimize differences. Step 3. FC SFC Mileage The model is applied to and future energy consumption per vehicle type and fuel is calculated. Step 4. GHG emissions (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) are calculated by taking into account the emission factor per gas and type of vehicle: GHG Stock Mileage 9 10 EFGHG 9 10 (Eq-2)

38 Data sources used Croatia: The number of vehicles per vehicle type (e.g PC, LDV etc) in 2010 was provided by the LOCSEE Croatian partner The disaggregation of vehicle stock per capacity and technology (following COPERT) derived from the latest Croatian GHG Inventory for (NIR 2012). Activity data (e.g. mileage, driving shares) derived also from NIR Net Calorific Value (NCV), fuel density and CO 2 emission factors per type of fuel derived from NIR 2012 and IEA. Albania: The number of vehicles per type (passenger, HDV etc.) was obtained from the Statistical Institute of Albania (INSTAT). The required further disaggregation of INSTAT data derived from assumptions considering also the Croatian vehicles fleet distribution Net calorific values (NCV), CO 2 emission factors data per type of fuel and natural gas density were based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Fuel densities for the rest of fuels derived from IEA.

39 General assumptions for the Reference Scenario Stock per vehicle type (passenger cars, LDV, HDV, etc): considering the evolution of vehicles fleet and socioeconomic factors (GDP growth, number of vehicles per inhabitant and fuel consumption) up to Disaggregation of the vehicles fleet per type of fuel and capacity (not technology): based on the modal shares in Disaggregation of the vehicles fleet per type of technology: conventional vehicles (pre-euro) and EURO 1-3 vehicles will be withdrawn gradually by 2030 (Pre-EUROs by 2015, EURO 1 by 2020, EURO 2 by 2025, EURO 3 by 2030) Renewal rates of other vehicles: will be lower (especially for HDV) as the adoption and market penetration of EURO standards presents a time lag compared to EURO standards for passenger cars. Energy efficiency per technology: will remain constant during at the level of 2010.

40 Specific assumptions made in the Reference Scenario Croatia Vehicles stock for HDV and LDV during will remain constant at the level of The number of buses and coaches will decrease slightly (up to -4% in 2030). Passenger cars will increase by 7% every 5 years and up to 29% until Motorcycles will increase by a total of 78% up to Albania Vehicles stock will evolve by a more conservative rate compared to Croatia and the renewal rate is much lower. The number of passenger cars, LDV and motorcycles will increase by a factor of 1.2 in 2015 compared to 2010, 1.15 in 2020, 1.1 in 2025 and 1.05 in The number of buses, coaches and HDV will remain constant during the whole period

41 Reference Scenario Energy consumption Εnergy consumption in the transport sector in Croatia 2500 Croatia ktoe Electricity CNG LPG Diesel Gasoline 0 Εnergy consumption in the transport sector in Albania Albania ktoe Diesel Gasoline

42 Reference Scenario GHG emissions GHG emissions in the transport sector in Croatia Croatia kt 5,700 5,600 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700-11% from ,550 2,500 2,450 GHG emissions in the transport sector in Albania +7% from 2010 Albania kt 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,

43 GHG Emissions Mitigation Measures examined 1. Renewal of gasoline passenger cars Faster, compared to the 2. Renewal of diesel passenger cars Reference Scenario, penetration rate of EURO 5 & 6 cars 3. Renewal of diesel LDV 4. Renewal of diesel HDV 5. Promotion of public transport 6. Use of hybrid passenger cars 7. Use of electric passenger cars 8. Eco-driving 9. Use of CNG buses 10. Increasing bus speed (traffic control, bus lanes) 11. Biodiesel penetration Directive 2009/28/EE asks for a biofuels share of 10% in the final consumption of the transport sector Biodiesel is added to diesel In case of Croatia, this measure is not applicable due to the fact that it has been already included in the Reference Scenario

44 GHG Abatement Potential and Cost Curve Croatia Albania Energy conservation measures for the transport sector euros/t euros/t Energy conservation measures for the transport sector kt kt

45 Part B3. Waste (Serbia)

46 Waste Model - General Characteristics Estimates GHG emissions generated from municipal solid waste treatment and disposal Waste treatment and disposal is broken down to specific technologies and disposal options 2010 is selected as the base year and the model s results are compared with the National Communication and other official sources GHG emissions calculated annually include: Process emissions from waste treatment and disposal (e.g. CO 2 emissions from the incineration of non-biodegradable part of wastes) Emissions from fuel and electricity use Avoided emissions due to electricity generated from Waste-to-Energy and Anaerobic Digestion facilities Process GHG emissions are calculated according to Tier 1 (for Incineration and Biological Treatment) and Tier 2 (for landfill) methods of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines GHG emissions are projected for the period

47 Structure of the Waste Model TOTAL WASTE BIO-WASTES RECYCLABLES MIXED WASTE BIOLOGICAL TREATMENT RECYCLING MBT INCINERATION LANDFILL Biological Treatment: Composting Anaerobic Digestion Recycling: At the source Material Recovery Facilities Mechanical Biological Treatment: Recovery of recyclables and biological treatment of organic fraction Bio-drying Incineration in WtE facilities: Mixed Wastes RDF / SRF from MBT Landfill: Unmanaged (deep/ shallow) Managed Managed semi-aerobic Uncategorized

48 Further Waste Treatment Options Biological Treatment Composting in covered windrows Dry Anaerobic Digestion followed by open air windrow composting Mechanical Biological Treatment of Mixed Waste MBT-1: Recovery of recyclables with a combination of advanced sorting equipment, Production of RDF, Composting of the bio-stabilized organic fraction MBT-2: Recovery of recyclables with a combination of advanced sorting equipment, Production of RDF, Dry Anaerobic Digestion of the biostabilized organic fraction Bio-drying for production of SRF Incineration Incineration of mixed waste in grate combustor and power/heat generation Incineration of RDF/SRF in fluidized bed combustor and power/heat generation

49 Data sources used Total waste quantity and treatment options: data obtained from a national database ( Waste Statistics and Waste Management in the Republic of Serbia , Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, 2012). Historical data on total waste quantity back to 1960: estimated on the basis of population and an average daily waste generation of 0.60 kg/cap/day (2006 IPCC Guidelines). Waste composition: data obtained from official documents ( National Waste Management Strategy ). Waste composition was assumed to remain constant throughout the whole period Current level of recycling: data obtained from official reports ( Report on the management of packaging and packaging waste Years , Agency for Environmental Protection, Republic of Serbia 2013)

50 Main assumptions in the Reference Scenario Population growth: by an annual rate of +0.5% ( National Waste Management Strategy ) Average per capita daily waste generation: will gradually reach the present European average (i.e kg/cap/day) by 2030 Waste Composition: will remain constant Legal targets regarding recycling-reuse and decrease of the quantity of biodegradables disposed at landfill: will be achieved Regional landfills: fully compliant with EU Standards, will serve more than 90% of the population by 2020 (currently 16% according to the National Environmental Approximation Strategy for Serbia, 2011)

51 Reference Scenario GHG Emissions Waste Sector (Serbia) % from kt CO2eq Direct Emissions Indirect Emissions Direct Emissions: Process Emissions and Fuel Emissions Indirect Emissions: Electricity (consumption and generation) emissions

52 GHG Emissions Mitigation Measures examined 4 GHG Emissions abatement scenarios were formulated In all scenarios: Residuals are disposed at managed landfills with biogas collection and flaring Increase of recycling Separate collection of 20% of bio-wastes Composting (50%) Anaerobic digestion (50%) Treatment of the rest wastes (mixed): S1: MBT-1 (Advanced sorting equipment, Production of RDF, Composting of the bio-stabilized organic fraction) & RDF incinerated in WtE facilities S2: MBT-2 (Advanced sorting equipment, Production of RDF, AD of the bio-stabilized organic fraction) & RDF incinerated in WtE facilities S3: Bio-drying & SRF incinerated in WtE facilities S4: Incineration in WtE facilities

53 GHG Abatement Technical Potential Waste Sector (Serbia) kt CO2eq Reference Scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 GHG emissions reduction by 2030 compared to the Reference Scenario: Scenario 1: -18,5% (189 ktoe) Scenario 2: -69,8% (716 ktoe) Scenario 3: -28,1% (288 ktoe) Scenario 4: -61,4% (630 ktoe)

54 Thank you for your attention! (Elena Georgopoulou) (Sebastian Mirasgedis) (Yannis Sarafidis)