Developing Low Carbon Vision for Indian Cities: A Case of Bhopal, India

Transcription

1 Developing Low Carbon Vision for Indian Cities: A Case of Bhopal, India Manmohan Kapshe Responding to Climate Change: UK-Indian Perspectives Queens University, Belfast 20th - 21st June 2012

2 Presentation Sequence Indian Scenario Low Carbon Society (LCS) Approach Bhopal An Introduction LCS Study LCS Vision, Timeline and Target Socio Economic Assumptions and Estimates Simulation Results, Analysis and Findings Policy Challenges, Measures and Barriers

3 Demographic trends and projections Share of Urban population Source: Census 2001 Growth of large cities in India Source: Mckinsey 2010 Million-plus Cities and Urban Agglomerations

4 India: Commitments, Actions and Drivers Slide Source: Shukla, 2010

5 Mitigation Options: Perspectives Slide Source: Shukla, 2010

6 LOW CARBON SOCIETY (LCS) APPROACH

7 Regional/time scales of LCS Scenarios Global development scenarios and Low Carbon World Roadmaps, Story-lines Quantification Model analysis and Backcasting Option 1: Global scale analysis National development scenarios and Low Carbon nations Roadmaps, Story-lines Quantification Model analysis and Backcasting Option 2: National scale analysis City development scenarios and Low Carbon Cities Roadmaps, Adapted from Matsuoka (2009) Story-lines Quantification Model analysis and Backcasting Option 3: Regional/ local scale analysis

8 Developing Bhopal LCS Scenario 2035 Methodology Quantification of scenario estimates of Bhopal district Narrative storylines of likely future Description of sector-wise details of likely future Quantification of the macro-economic considerations and social aspects Identification of possible effective policy measures Develop action plan for policy measures

9 BHOPAL AN INTRODUCTION

10 Bhopal, India The city is centrally located. Has composite climate representing a large part of the country. Physical features like large water body, hills and forests for analysis of local variations. A million plus city, it can represent many large Indian cities.

11 Bhopal: Chronological Development

12 Distribution of households Area Total/ Rural/ Urban Total number of households By source of lighting Electricity Kerosene Solar energy Other oil Any other No lighting Bhopal Total 335, ,091 11, Rural 62,648 54,503 7, Urban 272, ,588 3, Area Total/ Rural/ Urban Total no of HH Firewo od Crop residue Cow dung By type of fuel used for cooking Coal, Lignite Keros ene LPG Electri city Bio gas Any othe r No cooking Bhopal Total 335,376 81,146 3,850 8,805 1,133 86, , ,457 Rural 62,648 50,570 1,415 7, , Urban 272,728 30,576 2,435 1,595 1,117 85, , ,395 Source: CENSUS 2001

13 Drivers of Change Demographic Trends and Projection Land use change o o o Urban population has increased at an average decadal growth rate of over 70% in last 4 decades. The longer perspective and various estimates indicate that the district would grow around 4.5 million by No of Household would grow by three times o o The development plan area has expanded as the density of many wards has reached to more than 400persons/hectare. The residential sector has doubled in between plan period. Population in Millions Allocated Land in Thousand Hectare Land allocation (BDP 1991) Land allocation(bdp 2005_D) Land allocation proposed (Draft BPD 2021)* Estimates based on World Urbanization Prospects (Revised 2009) and UN mid term growth rates projections. Source: Bhopal Development Plan 1991, Draft 2005, Draft 2021

14 Drivers of change Growing district economy Transport growth trends GDP in Billions INR % 6% 20% Primary Sector Secondary sector Tertiary Sector Thousands Two wheelers Three wheelers Four wheelers Buses Trucks Tractors/ Trailers Bhopal DGDP (at Current Prices) & Sectoral distribution Source: District Development Report , and Indicus District GDP No of Vehicles registered in Bhopal Source: Road Transport Office ) Government of Madhya Pradesh

15 Energy Consumption Trends Fuel consumption is growing with rising human and vehicular population Electricity Consumption rise Period Petrol (Kilo lit) Diesel (Kilo lit) LPG (no. of cylinders) Total Consumption Million Kwh pckw Source: Department of Civil Supplies, Government of M. P. Source: District Development Report ,

16 Drivers of change Changing occupational pattern The occupation in tertiary sector has grown from 64% in 1971 to 87% The distribution of workers in secondary sector has moved up from 33% to 36% in 1991 which saw steep decline to 15% in % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: NRS, Tertiary Sector Secondary Sector Primary Sector

17 Shopping and Residential Area

18 The Streets

19 The Transportation

20 LCS VISION, TIMELINE AND TARGET

21 The Bhopal LCS vision To be a sustainable city in line with national policies Ready for future and resilient to change Conservation and green orient for quality of life Economic and social competitive clean and green industries Efficient transport system Community participation in city development Timeline and Reduction Target Time Horizon: Year 2035 To align city development plans and policies with national and global targets Reduction Target: 40% of 2035 BAU Emissions

22 Two Scenarios Business As Usual (BAU) scenario The present trend in Bhopal city has been considered with existing technology in both residential and transport sector with prevailing economic and demographic trends. The BAU scenario for future energy consumption and emissions projection in Bhopal city envisages the continuum of present government policies, and capture forecast for various economic, demographic, land use and energy use indicators. Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenario For analysing the possibilities of reducing the GHG emissions in future a sustainable development future scenario is drawn here for Bhopal city that is expected take it towards Low Carbon Society. the energy consumption trajectory / emissions trajectory in residential and transport sector in Bhopal that would result from aggressive policies to promote demand side management, energy efficiency, development of renewable energy, and other policies to promote sustainable development

23 SIMULATION RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

24 Socio Economic Assumptions and Energy, Emission estimates from Model AIM/ExSS Output

25 Energy Demand and GHG Emission 3 Sectoral Energy Demand 5 Primary Energy Demand MToe Mtoe BaU 2035 LCS Residential Commercial Industry Passenger Freight BaU 2035 LCS Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Solar Biomass 3 GHG Emissions per capita 14 Sectoral GHG Emissions in Bhopal T CO 2 / Capita Mt CO BAU 2035 LCS BaU 2035 LCS Residential Commercial Industry

26 Sector wise Mitigation Contribution Value for Year 2005 = 1. Value of Year 2005 = Passenger Transport Demand Freight Transport Demand Passenger Transport Energy Demand GHG Emissions BAU 2035 LCS Transport Sector Technology Efficiency Improvements Fuel Switch Improved Traffic Management Shift to Public Transport & I Implementing Integrated Transport Management System Freight Transport Energy Demand GHG Emissions BAU 2035 LCS Value for 2005= Industrial Sector Output ( Bn INR) Energy Demand GHG Emissions BAU 2035 LCS Industrial Sector Technology Efficiency Improvements Fuel Switch Value for Year 2005 = 1. Value in Year 2005 = Residential Sector No of Energy GHG Emissions Household Demand BAU 2035 LCS Residential & Commercial Sectors Efficiency Improvements in End Use Devices Fuel Switch Behavioral Changes New Technology Adoption & Retrofitting Improved Material Efficiency in Buildings Change in the Nature of Power Supply Commercial Sector Commercial Floor Energy Demand GHG Emissions Space BaU 2035 LCS

27 GHG Emission Scenario and Interventions Mitigation Contribution GHG Emissions Scenario Mitigation Contribution Efficiency Improvement (Transport) Efficiency Improvement (Industry) Efficiency Improvement (Building) Fuel Switch Mt CO 2 6 Mt CO 2 6 Reduction in Energy Service demand Emissions BaU 2035 LCS BaU 2035 LCS Residential Commercial Industry Passenger Freight

28 Transport Sector- Fuel Mix Bhopal - BAU and LCS scenarios 100% Year 2000 BAU 2030 LCS % 60% 40% 20% 0% Renewables Diesel Electricity Gasoline Heavy Oil Gas

29 Transport Sector Passenger Transport Mode Bhopal - BAU and LCS scenarios Year 2000 BAU 2030 LCS wheeler existing 2 stroke 2-wheeler future 4 stroke 2-wheeler future Electric 3-wheeler Auto existing 2 stroke 3-wheeler Auto 4 stroke 3-wheeler Tempo existing 4 stroke Diesel Car New Diesel Car existing LPG/CNG/NGA Car Petrol Car New Petrol Car existing Solar Car Animal Powered Cart Bicycle HCV CNG Bus HCV exicting Diesel Bus MCV diesel existing Passenger HCV Electric Bus MCV Hybrid HCV New Diesel Bus MCV diesel New Passenger Train Passenger Diesel Train Passenger Electric Walk

30 Transport Sector Freight Transport Mode Bhopal - BAU and LCS scenarios 700 Year 2000 BAU 2030 LCS WFreight Auto New 4 stroke 3WFreight Auto existing 2 stroke 3WFreight Tempo New 3WFreight Tempo existing Animal Powered Freight MCV diesel existing Freight HCV Truck MCV diesel New Freight Train Goods Diesel Train Goods Electric Push cart Freight Tractor

31 Policy challenges in Bhopal Residential and Commercial Sector fuel use varies from wood, biomass, charcoal to kerosene, electricity and LPG depending on the income level. emissions from common fuel use. use of inefficient fuel and technologies is the primary cause for high GHG and local emissions. lower rate of conversion to new technologies, as the alternative inefficient fuel is freely and easily available and low preference for energy efficient technologies over consumer durables. Inefficient building designs. Transport Sector limited network of roads, high traffic density, increasing number of private vehicles, inadequate provisions for non motorized transport Industrial Sector large share of unorganised industrial activities use of inefficient fuel and technologies low rate of conversion to new technologies

32 LCS ACTIONS AND STRATEGY FORMULATION

33 Bhopal LCS: Seven Actions Concept Action 7: Rural Riches Action 6: Nurturing Nature Action 1: Green Governance Action 2: Holistic Habitat Action 3: Sustainable Style Action 5: Form and Flow Action 4: Cellular City SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION ACTIONS Residential Commercial Industry Passenger Transport 1 GREEN GOVERNANCE 2 HOLISTIC HABITAT 3 SUSTAINABLE STYLE 4 CELLULAR CITY 5 FORM AND FLOW 6 NURTURING NATURE 7 RURAL RICHES Freight Transport

34 Actions towards LCS Bhopal Action-1: Green Governance Introduction of policies and Incentives across sectors incorporating sustainable practices Government schemes including subsidies on use of green technology Enforcing not only prescriptive regulations but also formulating performance guidelines Action-2: Holistic Habitat Application of energy efficient technology in buildings. Passive and Active methods of reducing energy consumption Use of multiple housing typologies according to life style and context Adopting time tested house forms in rural-urban transition areas (climate responsive vernacular housing) Use of locally available materials and technology

35 Actions towards LCS Bhopal Action-3: Sustainable Style Shifting to a low carbon lifestyle. Introduction to environmental concerns from primary level of education. Reduce, reuse, recycle Use of energy efficient appliances Walking as a way of life Action-4: Cellular City Developing and enhancing the existing city form of self contained settlements with mixed land use. Compact, discreet work-home zones requiring minimal interzone travel. Defining the city cells based on their natural settings, socioeconomic homogeneity, location in the context of city structure.

36 Actions towards LCS Bhopal Action-5: Form and Flow Integrating Transport with City structure a two level approach Connecting the Cells: Route optimization considering the topography, water bodies and other natural barriers. Reducing travel demand and time between zones. Enhancing Public Transport systems. Walkable Cells: Transportation within compact closely knit work-home mixed land use zones. Promoting non-automated means of transport-inclusion of bike tracks, pedestrian walkways, subways and cross overs. Migration to Sustainable Technology Emission norms Alternative fuels use Traffic management (passenger and freight) Parking policy

37 Actions towards LCS Bhopal Action-6: Nurturing Nature Leveraging on the natural and historic assets Lake Conservation and water management. Rain water harvesting at city level using natural collector zones, at community level and household level. Social forestry and urban forestry. Using indigenous plant species for urban landscaping. Conserving the city s heritage. Promoting eco-tourism and heritage tourism. Action-7: Rural Riches Promoting a better lifestyle in the rural areas Developing rural fringes as city s food reserve by increasing agricultural activities. Prevent conversion of rural land to peripheral urban housing sprawl through land use control and rural incentive schemes. Government incentives for developing rural housing typologies, with energy efficient technology interventions.

38 Barriers to LCS Pathways No common generalized policies can be developed, Individual solutions are needed for each of the city Success depends on the participation of local government / people Almost no awareness in smaller cities Capacity building is slow and time taking Good quality infrastructure and services are almost always necessary that are already stressed Development priorities may not be in line with LCS objectives Economic implications are not easy to anticipate

39 Thank You