Modelling 2050 Energy and

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1 Modelling 25 Energy and CO 2 Scenario for Bangkok Aumnad Phdungsilp a,b and Shobhakar Dhakal a a Global l Carbon Project-Tsukuba International Office National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan b Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok, Thailand 1

2 Outline of Presentation Overview of Bangkok and boundary setting Bangkok energy-economyemissions trends Current energy and environmental-friendly policies and programmes in Bangkok and Thailand Modelling framework Scenario descriptions Major findings Conclusions My interesting is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there - Charles F. Kettering 2

3 Overview of Bangkok and Definitions Bangkok - Managed by Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) - 5 districts and 154 sub-districts - Total area is 1,569 km 2 - The world s 22 nd largest city (by population) Greater Bangkok - Bangkok + 3 provinces (Nonthaburi, Phathumthani and Samut Prakan) - Total area is 4,5 km 2 Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) - Bangkok k + 5 provinces (Nonthaburi, Phathumthani, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon and Nakhon Pathom - Total area is 7,5 km 2 Extended Bangkok Metropolitan Region (EBMR) - BMR + the core Eastern Seaboard (Chachoengsao, Chonburi and Rayong) + Ayutthaya - Important t area for the national a economy o 3

4 Extended d Bangkok k Metropolitan Region (EBMR) 4

5 Bangkok Energy-Economy-Emissions Trends 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Estimated energy data for this period CO 2 emissions contributed from electricity and petroleum products GPP (1^9 THB) Population (*1,) CO2 emissions (1^3 tonnes) Electricity (TWh) Energy Consumption (ktoe) 5

6 Bangkok Energy-Economy-Emissions Trends 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, , 1,8 1,6 1, Energy Intensity (toe/mil.thb) Carbon Intensity (tonnes/mil.thb) - 3,4933 4,4244 5,78 7,69 9,728 GDP per Capita (thousand THB) 13,592 17,511 77, , , ,492 19, , ,36 1,2 1, Total Energy (ktoe) Total CO2 emissions (thousand tonnes) Energy Intensity (toe/mil.thb) Carbon Intensity (tonnes/mil.thb) 6

7 Existing Energy and Environmental- Friendly Policies and Programmes Thai government planning to cut CO 2 emissions by 15-2% (Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 28). Bangkok Action Plan on Global Warming Mitigation : - Expand mass transit rail system; - Promote the use of renewable energy; - Development of green buildings and environmental-friendly offices; - Improve solid waste mgt. & wastewater treatment efficiency; and - Increasing of green areas. Demand-Side Management - Residential - Industry - Building 7

8 Modelling Framework Model platform: Long-range g Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) Study period: 25 to 25, taken 25 as the base year Boundary: Bangkok k and five provinces BMA and BMR Residential - High, medium and low income Commercial - Based on Designate Building Industrial - Only manufacturing sector - 9 manufacturing sub-sectors Transport - Only road transport - 17 vehicle types and mass transit systems Total of 24 alternatives has been examined. All models are wrong, but some are useful - George E.P. Box 8

9 Composition of Modelling Framework Residential - High income - Medium income - Low income 4 end-use categories (e.g., cooking) 42 technologies (e.g., rice cooker) Population Households Final energy (# hh) intensity Saturation (%) Commerical 6 Building types (e.g., office) 3 end-use categories (e.g., A/C) Floor space Percent share Fuel share Final energy intensity Industrial 9 14 fuel Value added manufacturing categories Share of value sub-sectors (e.g., electricity) added Useful energy intensity Transport 2 categories (e.g., road trans) 17 vehicles types (e.g., sedan) 8 technologies (e.g., CNG) Population Vehicle-km Percent share Final energy intensity 9

10 Residential Scenario Description - BAU Industrial - Share of HH income classes: - GPP ind increasing, 3%/yr (high 4%, medium 35%, and low 61% (high 1%, medium 55%, and low 35%) % d l 3 %) intensity - Constant proportion of GPP ind shares in total industrial value added - Constant average useful energy i i Transport - Number of projected HH is based on regression model Commercial - Predicted population using regression model - Increasing office fl.space: 2%/yr (25-224), 1.5%/yr (225-25) - Increasing hotel fl.space: 1.5%/yr (25-224), 1%/yr (225-25) - Increasing hospital fl.space, 1%/yr - Increasing Dept. store fl.space: 1%/yr (25-224),.5%/yr (225-25) - Increasing Edu.Inst. fl.space, 1%/yr - Increasing Misc.fl.space, 1.5%/yr - Predicted number of vehicles using econometric model - Avg. vehicle-km travelling remains the same - Shares of vehicle types change slightly Constant avg fuel economy - Schedules of mass transit system projects are based on the original plan 1%/yr (25 224) 5%/yr - Constant avg. fuel economy 1

11 Scenario Description 24 alternatives ti Residential sector Industrial sector - Energy efficiency - Switching to natural gas improvement (6 alternatives) - Target of 1% energy efficiency - Energy-savings houses improvement - 1 kw solar home generation Commercial sector - Replacing lignite by fuel wood - Lighting power density Transport sector - Equipment power density - Public transportation shift from - Shading coefficient of window road transport to mass transit - Window-to-wall ratio systems - Thermal conductance of wall - Fuel economy improvement - Thermal conductance of window - Hybrid sedan car - Improving chiller s COP - Bio-diesel - Gasohol (E-1) - Natural gas vehicles 11

12 Final Energy Demand in Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) ktoe 115, 11, 15, 1, 95, 9, 85, 8, 75, 7, 65, 6, 55, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Final Energy Demand Scenario: Reference, Fuel: All Fuels Bangkok Five Provinces ktoe Final Energy Demand by Sectors Scenario: Reference, Fuel: All Fuels 115, 11, 15, 1, 95, 9, 85, 8, 75, 7, 65, 6, 55, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Five Provinces\Transport Five Provinces\Residential Five Provinces\Industrial Five Provinces\Commercial Bangkok\Transport Bangkok\Residential Bangkok\Industrial Bangkok\Commercial 12

13 Comparison of Energy Demand in Bangkok and BMR ktoe 25, 2, 15, 1, Bangkok HIGH Scenario Bangkok Reference Scenario Bangkok LOW Scenario BMR HIGH Scenario BMR Reference Scenario BMR LOW Scenario 5,

14 Final Energy Demand by Fuel Types in Bangkok Thousand Tonnes of Oil Eq quivalents 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, Enegy demand by feul types in Bangkok BAU scenario Scenario: Reference Wood Oil Natural Gas LPG Kerosene Gasoline Electricity Diesel Coal Unspecified Coal Lignite Coal Anthracite Charcoal CNG Biom ass Bagasse 1, 5,

15 Energy demand in Bangkok residential sector Energy demand in Bangkok commercial sector 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 Scenario: Reference, Fuel: All Fuels High income Medium income Low income Scenario: Reference, Fuel: All Fuels Office Hotel Hospital Department store Edu inst Miscellaneous Thousand Tonnes of Oi il Equivalents 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,11 1, Thousand Tonnes of Oi l Equivalents s of Oil Equivalents Thousand Tonnes 26, 24, 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Energy demand in Bangkok industrial sector Scenario: Reference, Fuel: A ll Fuels Food and beverages Textile Wood and furniture Paper Chemical Non metalic Basic metal Fabricated metal Others s of Oil Equivalents Thousand Tonnes Energy demand in Bangkok transport sector Scenario: Reference, Fuel: A ll Fuels 24, 23, 22, 21, 2, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Road transport Mass transit system 15

16 Comparison of Emissions (CO 2 -eq., CO 2 and Carbon) in BKK and BMR Million to onnes BKK CO2 BMR CO

17 Million Metri c Tonnes Bangkok CO2 emission (Million tonnes) Scenario: Reference, Fuel: Selected Fuels (11/16), Effects: Carbon Dioxide Non Biogenic tonnes per ca pita 3 25 CO2 per Capita Residential Commercial Industrial Transport

18 Energy-savings & Avoided CO 2 Emissions in Residential Sector of Alternative Scenario ktoe Res Lighting 3, Res Electric motor Res Electric load Res EE heating device Res EE cooling device Res Cooking stove One kw solar home thousand tonnes 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Res Lighting Res Electric motor Res Electric load Res EE heating device Res EE cooling device Res Cooking stove Res Solar home generation 18

19 Energy-savings & Avoided CO 2 Emissions in Commercial Sector of Alternative Scenario kto oe Com Window to Wall Ratio Com Thermal Cond of Window Com Thermal Cond of Wall Com Shading Coeff Window Com Lighting Com Equipment Com COP of Chiller thousand tonnes 3, Com Window to Wall Ratio Com Thermal Cond of Window Com Thermal Cond of Wall 2,5 Com Shading Coeff Window Com Lighting 2, Com Equipment Com COP of Chiller 1,5 1,

20 Energy-savings & Avoided CO 2 Emissions in Industrial Sector of Alternative Scenario kto oe 3, 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1, Ind Switching to NG Ind 1% Energy Efficiency Ind Replacing Lignite by Fuel Wood nd tonnes thousa 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4 4, 3, 2, 1, 2,6 Ind Switching to NG Ind Replacing Lignite it by Fuel Wood Ind 1% Energy Efficiency

21 Energy-savings & Avoided CO 2 Emissions in Transport Sector of Alternative Scenario ktoe 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Trans NGV Trans Hybrid Car Trans Gasohol Trans Fuel Economy Improvement Trans Biodiesel Mass transit systems thousand tonnes CO2 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Trans NGV Trans Hybrid Car Trans Gasohol Trans Fuel Economy Improvement Trans Biodiesel

22 Total energy-savings and avoided CO2 emissions from all alternatives 9, Total energy-savings 8, (ktoe) 7, Total avoided CO2 6, emissions (thousand 5, tonnes) 4, 3, 2, 1,

23 Conclusions Under BAU conditions in 25: - Energy demand in Bangkok 54,56 ktoe - CO2 emissions 191 Million tonnes - Energy demand in BMR 117,521 ktoe - CO2 emissions 386 Million tonnes The alternative options consider as a series of what-if questions. Some policies are current policies and some are likely to be implemented soon. The potential for emission reductions follows the pattern of the energy-savings. Future works should include the co-benefits and cost analysis of each options. 23

24 Acknowledgement Financial support from Global Carbon Project (GCP) Tsukuba International Office National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan All staffs at GCP office Thanks to Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok, Thailand for award the research leave 24

25 Thank you for your attention Friendships without a Border 25