On the Role of a National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Providing Decision Support Services on Climate Timescales
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1 On the Role of a National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Providing Decision Support Services on Climate Timescales Ray Wolf NOAA/NWS Davenport, Iowa Climate Prediction and Application Science Workshop , Anchorage, AK
2 Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) NOAA NWS OAR NESDIS CSD CPO CPC ESRL WFOs GLERL
3 122 Offices across the U.S. and territories
4 Mission Provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy. Collect, preliminary quality control, disseminate data and maintain data networks ASOS COOP Upper Air WSR-88D Radar
5 What does a WFO bring to the table? Trusted relationships with Local media Emergency management Fire, Police, Hospitals, Schools, County and Local Governments General public Local expert in extreme event climatology Climate partnerships State Climatologists Regional Climate Centers NCEI
6 FEMA grant Mercer County Illinois Climate Change and Rural Communities Goal: Address public health and long term consequences of climate change in the community by building a coalition representing local, regional, and state partners to (1) conduct a needs assessment, (2) provide community education, and (3) provide training to local health departments.
7 Mercer County, Illinois Population 17,000; 80% rural Primary industry Agriculture
8 Climate Change Action Committee Representatives from the following sectors: National Weather Service Law Enforcement / Fire Department Hospital Public Health Local Government Officials county and municipal Natural Resources Conservation Service Illinois Department of Transportation Long term care County Farm Bureau Faith-based community
9 Needs Assessment Process Achieved through group discussions Identify Objectives Identify Target Groups Analyze Risk Factors Develop Strategies Prioritize Impacts Identify Impacts Address Barriers Re-evaluate Objectives
10 Objectives Identify the ability of the local health department to address the public health consequences of climate change, and identify knowledge base and capacity gaps.
11 Target Groups Natural Resources Health and Medical Agriculture Transportation Vulnerable Populations Emergency Response
12 Risk Factors and Impacts Risk Factor Soil Flood Direct Contributing Factor Indirect Contributing Factor Runoff, pollution, sand Ditches and culverts unable to keep up Super saturation Lack of vegetation Wind Drought Target Group Natural Resources Water quality Heat/temp. Soil erosion Fertilizer/ pesticide runoff Water Water levels (quantity) Variable rain and snow fall Increased water usage Natural ponds/ streams Affected fish growth and species Warmer temperatures
13 Prioritize Impacts Impacts: Natural Resources Severity Frequency Ability to affect change Total Reduction in wetlands,fish and insects Chemical run-off from fields Increased water temperatures Soil erosion Loss of soil Water evaporation Change in wildlife migration Inability to provide for livestock (water or food) Pollution (air/water) increase
14 Develop Strategies and Address Barriers NATURAL RESOURCES 1 of 4 Chemical run-off from fields Cause/s: Strategy to affect change: Equipment Process People Materials Environment Management
15 Community Education & LHD Training Focus on public health and climate change impacts Climate change toolkit Training series Traveling display board/posters Newsletter
16 Mercer County Outcomes Model Needs Assessment for the integration of climate change and the impact on public health Model Strategic Plan entitled Climate Changes and Rural Communities Climate Change Toolkit for use regionally or statewide
17 NWS Outcomes Provided an extreme event climatology Participated in needs assessment discussion addressing climate change ramifications Assisted with educational material development and delivery Increased knowledge of target group weather/climate impacts; value of public health as science communicators
18 Conclusion NWS WFOs can support activities on all weather/ water timescales in line with NOAA and NWS mission WFOs are experts on local climatology WFOs are educated on climate change Local voice supporting other NOAA line agencies like CPO Handle simple requests, e.g, climate change education talks Engage climate partners as appropriate (NOAA and non-noaa) My opinions only
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