ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures
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1 ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures Case study: floods Programme Science for sustainable development ( ) Second Follow-Up Committee Meeting KUL 1 June 2007 Website:
2 Global context It is known that adaptation measures will be necessary to protect populations and ecosystems against climate-related hazards in the next decades (IPCC, 2001 & 2007; EEA, 2004 & 2007). It remains for the policy-maker to select among a wide range of options and possibilities of adaptation measures. In general, the ways and means required to implement these measures appear to be considerable, when compared with the risks to be avoided. The decision-making principles advocated by international programmes stipulate that the choice of adaptation measures must reflect their potential to produce benefits which will surpass their costs. The knowledge of impacts and adaptation measures in Belgium still remains somewhat patchy. In this context, a case-study on flooding has been selected. The overall objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate an efficient management tool which is a cost-benefit analysis based instrument for the integrated assessment of adaptation measures.
3 The team Five partners with complementary and multidisciplinary scientific expertise belonging to the three pillars of sustainable development CEESE - ULB (economic aspects and coordination) W. Hecq and A. De Groof HIVA - KUL (social aspects) K. Bachus and I. Coninx ECOBE - UA (ecological aspects) P. Meire and M. El Kahloun HACH - ULg (hydraulic aspects) B. Dewals, P. Archambeau, S. Detrembleur, L. Smolders and M. Pirotton ECOLAS (general aspects and integration) R. De Sutter and L. De Smet + Synergies with the CCI-HYDR project for the Flemish case study
4 Structure of the ADAPT project 1. GENERAL STUDY AND EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN BELGIUM This introduction study will provide a synthesis of the knowledge and facts available concerning the effects of climate change, their intensity and probable progression in time. The synthesis will provide a clear overview of facts and their uncertainty limit, focusing on Belgium. WP1 GENERAL STUDY AND EVALUATION (Phase 1) Identification and classification of potential impacts of climate change in Belgium (all partners). Primary impacts: physical aspects Secondary impacts: social, economic and ecologic aspects (See website for downloading : 2. THE MANAGEMENT TOOL DEVELOPMENT In order to develop and test the efficient management tool for the integrated assessment of adaptation measures, a case study on a target impact of climate change has been chosen: flooding in the two main Belgian river basins (river Ourthe in the Meuse basin and river Dender in the Scheldt basin) WP2 CASE STUDY FLOODING (Phase 1-2)
5 General outlines of flooding analysis Climate change scenarios CCI-HYDR project Impacts Hydraulic impacts Primary impacts assessment Economic impacts Floods (case studies) Social impacts Environmental impacts Secondary impacts assessment Structural Response Adaptation measures Non-structural Adaptation measures assessment Cost-benefit analysis
6 Structure of the ADAPT project THE CASE STUDY FLOODING (rivers Ourthe and Dender) The analysis of adaptation strategies related to flooding will be built on a scheme of work comprising the following main steps: 1. Evaluating primary impacts of global change induced flooding on river basins Assessment of hydrological effects (by way of hydraulic modelling) Translating hydraulic modelling results into input for the assessment of secondary impacts 2. Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding on vulnerable sectors in river basins Assessment of environmental, economic and social aspects Overall assessment of damage costs 3. Determining adaptation measures and evaluating their costs and their benefits Definition of both technical and non-technical measures Evaluation of adaptation measures in monetary terms Overall assessment of benefits and costs of adaptation measures 4. Cost-benefit analysis Implementation of the cost-benefit analysis Complementary analysis based on impact assessment using sustainability criteria Recommendations on adaptation of measures
7 Afternoon agenda ADAPT : State of progress Case-study description - Walloon Region (HACH, CEESE) Case-study Description - Flemish Region (HIVA, ECOBE) Analysis plan and framework + interconnections between the different approaches (ECOLAS) Hydraulic modelling (HACH) Economic approach (CEESE) Social approach (HIVA) Ecologic approach (ECOBE) + Question time
8 Thank you For more details on the ADAPT project
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