GAP NORTH SEA. Coupling of PEGASE & MIRO&CO models. Xavier Desmit Geneviève Lacroix. Coupling the Scheldt to the North Sea

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1 GAP NORTH SEA Coupling of PEGASE & MIRO&CO models Coupling the Scheldt to the North Sea Xavier Desmit Geneviève Lacroix October 20, 2016

2 Introduction : objectives The goal of GAP is to link and harmonize regional rivers with the Belgian North Sea - How do riverine nutrient contribute to marine eutrophication? (link) - Is the sea in good status when rivers are in good status? (harmonization) On the longer term: - How do we reach the good status in the rivers? in the Belgian Continental Shelf?

Introduction : Marine eutrophication Remote Sensing Chl P90 (2000-2010) Domain of MIRO&CO model High

3 Introduction : Marine eutrophication Remote Sensing Chl P90 ( ) Domain of MIRO&CO model High Chlorophyll a N an P excess with respect to Si Consequences: Dead zones Ecosystem disturbance HABs (toxicity)

4 TBNT : contributions to winter DIN Courtesy of Dulière et al. (in rev.)

5 DTT : theoretical levels of nutrient reduction Nutrient reduction required in the rivers to comply with WFD requirements (1-mile area) MIRO&CO Chl P90 (mean ) Contributor DIN river DIP river UK NL µg / L concentration concentration Thames Rhine/Meuse Thames 51% 68% Scheldt Rhine/Meuse 73% 70% Somme BE Scheldt & small BE 41% 23% Seine Seine & small FR 66% 17% FR Desmit et al (2015) EMoSEM Final Report The Distance-To-Target (DTT) is an exercise of optimization It calculates the optimal nutrient reductions in each contributing river to reach the target (WFD threshold) It can take into account different constraints (economy, fair distribution of efforts etc.) The optimization technique could also consider the practical feasibility of a nutrient reduction as some systems naturally show higher concentrations than others Workshop on eutrophication October 20, 2016 FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment, Brussels

6 Principle : understanding & Vision 1. Human activities in the watersheds result in N,P inputs to the rivers 2. River nutrient enrichment results in coastal eutrophication MIRO&CO Chl P90 (mean ) µg / L The UK Thames The NL Rhine/Meuse Scheldt Agriculture area Urban area Somme Belgium Industrial area Seine France Coupling the Scheldt model to the marine model Another point of view!

7 Principle : river-ocean model coupling Marine model MIRO&CO Scheldt model PEGASE Input for MIRO&CO Output from PEGASE

8 mmol/m3 m3/s mmol/m Workshop on eutrophication October 20, 2016 FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment, Brussels Scheldt annual data in Anomaly in yearly average discharge (MY mean = 142 m3/s) Origin of the data: : data from RIZA (downloaded from waterbase.nl) / : data from Hydrological Information Centre (Flanders) at Schaar van Ouden Doel Anomaly in yearly average Ntot conc. at Doel (MY mn 506) Origin of the data: Anomaly in yearly average Ptot conc. at Doel (MY mn 17.6) NO3+NO2 & PO4, NH4, SiO, N_Kj & Ptot concentrations from RIZA data at Schaar van Ouden Doel (waterbase.nl)

9 mol N / s Workshop on eutrophication October 20, 2016 FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment, Brussels mol P / s kton / year Input : Pegase & RBINS N,P loads Scheldt Ntot load in 2006 (Lillo) Pegase Lillo Measured data 6 4 Scheldt Ptot load in 2006 (Lillo) Pegase Lillo Measured data J F M A M J J A S O N D 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Uitvoeren van een studie voor de risico-analyse 2015 in het Scheldestroomgebied met behulp van het PEGASE-model van het Scheldestroomgebied Universiteit Luik Aquapôle, 2008 Cumulated loads in 2006 The Scheldt N,P dry loads show comparable seasonality between PEGASE and MIRO PEGASE MIRO The cumulated annual loads are comparable Cumulated N 1 1 Cumulated P

10 Results : Maps winter nutrients Attention changer Pegase en Pegase Scheldt in title fig

11 Results : Maps Chl P90 The main indicators of marine eutrophication are the same

12 Results : Time series chlorophyll a Workshop on eutrophication October 20, 2016 FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment, Brussels

13 Conclusions Increased cooperation between the regions and the federal The PEGASE model produces exploitable results for MIRO&CO The coupling of the river-ocean models is successful Scenarios of reduction in the watershed could be applied in the future Scheldt+BE rivers & Rhine/Meuse have similar impacts in the Belgian coastal zone therefore scenarios should be applied on Rhine/Meuse too for measurable effect Same for atmospheric N deposition

14 Future opportunities Apply the same coupling to the Meuse (/Rhine?) river Test compatibility of regional indicators for GES in land-ocean continuum Run realistic scenarios designed by the regions

15 Thank you for your attention And thanks to Tom Valérie Alain Karien D heygere Dulière Ménesguen De Cauwer

Past, present and future eutrophication in the North-East Atlantic coastal waters

Past, present and future eutrophication in the North-East Atlantic coastal waters Xavier Desmit, Geneviève Lacroix, Valérie Dulière Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), OD Nature, Belgium