The Paris Agreement and the EU's response

Transcription

1 The Paris Agreement and the EU's response UNIVERSITEIT HASSELT 26 Mei 2016 Tom van Ierland DG Klimaat Afdeling C1 Economische Analyse en Strategie Europese Commissie

2 The need for global action The Paris Agreement

3 Climate science IPCC (2013) Warming of the climate systems is unequivocal and observed changes are unprecedented on scales of decades to millennia. Human influence on the climate system is clear. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes to the atmosphere, land and oceans in all regions of the globe. 3

4 Emissions of major economies, (all greenhouse gases, all sources & sinks) (Source: historical emissions data: inventories data to the UNFCCC ( 4

5 1992 Rio 'World Summit' UNFCCC UN Framework convention on change 1997 Kyoto Protocol Divide developed / developing countries Covered only +/- 12% of global emissions 2015 Paris Agreement Recognition that the world has changed climate A changed UN approach : balance between 'top down' and 'bottom up' 5

6 The Paris Agreement A legally binding, universal agreement Ambitious long-term goals (well-below 2 C/pursue 1.5 C/global peaking asap/climate neutrality in the second half of the century) Dynamic 5-year ambition cycle Enhanced transparency and accountability Greater emphasis on adaptation Support for poor and vulnerable countries 189 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) Climate Action 6

7 World emissions (GtC02e, total excluding sinks) and percent change in emission intensity per unit of GDP Source: POLES JRC Model 7

8 INDCs : Global cumulative investment in the power sector, (IEA WEO2015) 8

9 INDCs : Growth in renewable electricity generation, (IEA WEO2015) 9

10 EU Climate Policies

11 2050 Low Carbon Economy Roadmap 80% domestic reduction in 2050 is feasible: With currently available technologies, With behavioural change only induced through prices If all economic sectors contribute to a varying degree & pace. Efficient pathway and milestones: -25% in % in % in % 100% 80% Power Sector 80% Current policy 60% 40% Residential & Tertiary Industry 60% 40% 20% Transport 20% Non CO 2 Agriculture 0% Non CO 2 Other Sectors 0%

12 Mt CO2 equivalent Total EU GHG emission trend % reduction compared to % in 2014 At least 40% reduction compared to % reduction compared to Historic emissions Projections with existing measures (based on MS submissions) 12 Source: EEA, Commission

13 Index 1990=100 EU : Decoupling growth from emissions % GDP GDP GHG emissions GHG intensity - 23% GHG emissions Source: European Commission based on data compiled by EEA 13

14 EU :2030 Climate and Energy Framework 14

15 2015 Important policy initiatives under the Energy Union ETS review 2016 EU ESD : targets for MS including LULUCF Transport decarbonisation Energy efficiency Electricity market design Renewables (including biomass, biofuels) Integrated climate and energy governance 15

16 ETS: the European carbon market Source: adapted from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2015) 16

17 EU Emission Trading System (ETS) One EU wide target : -21% in 2020 and -43% in 2030 One single EU carbon price Harmonised infrastructure and operation + delivery of target + cost-effective reductions - weak incentives for alternatives (low prices) 17

18 EU : Renewable energy : today 16 % of energy use in the EU (Mtoe) 18 Source: Eurostat

19 Renewables policies contribute to reduce technology cost Wind Solar 19

20 A Belgian Perspective

21 ESD MtCO2 eq (million tonnes) % Share of RES in gross final energy consumption Belgium's progress - ESD and RES targets RES 2020 target: 13% 14% 12% % 8% ESD 2020 limit: 67,7 MtCO2 eq 6% 4% % 60 0% Share of RES in gross final energy consumption (%) *ESD GHG emissions (MtCO2 eq) ESD projected (MtCO2 eq) ESD anuual limits (MtCO2 eq) * Note: final ESD GHG emissions review to be concluded in 2016 Source: European Commission, EEA, Eurostat

22 RES final energy consumption (PJ) Flemish Region - RES 2020 target Target 90,3 PJ Data source: Vito

23 Evolution of total GHG per sector (Flanders) Source: Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij (Lozingen in de lucht , VMM, 2015) Climate Action 23

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25 Thank you! Visit DG Climate Action online: ec.europa.eu/ clima/ facebook.com/ EUClimateAction twitter.com/ EUClimateAction pinterest.com/ EUClimateAction youtube.com/ EUClimateAction