THE PARIS AGREEMENT (UNFCCC COP.21) CCIM CCPIE Stakeholder Dialogue 11 March 2016

Transcription

1 THE PARIS AGREEMENT (UNFCCC COP.21) CCIM CCPIE Stakeholder Dialogue 11 March 2016 Peter Wittoeck FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Envrionment Climate Change Service

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3 o 196 Parties o 150 Heads of State and Government o participants

4 The Paris Agreement: key elements 4 Differentiation Binding Universal Fair Ambitious Dynamic Transparent Long Term Vision / Objectives Ambition Cycle Mitigation Adaptation / Loss & Damage Financial flows Transparency & Compliance Text of 12 pages Accompanied by a set of COP decisions (plan for the implementation fo the agreement + pre 2020 action)

5 BINDING, UNIVERSAL 5

6 Universal and Binding Agreement 6 Durban Mandate a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties Accord de Paris Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions. (art. 4.2) Each Party shall communicate a nationally determined contribution every five years (art. 4.9) All Parties should strive to formulate and communicate long term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (art. 4.19) Each Party shall regularly provide the following information: (art. 13.7) Etc.

7 Universal INDCs submitted by 15 December 2015 Source : World Resources Institute

8 and differentiated 8 The principles of the Convention remain at the heart (equity, CBDR & RC, Developed Countries Leadership) Distinction between Developed and Developing countries BUT no reference to the Annexes of the Convention Special considerations for the most vulnerable and the poorest Differentiated differentiation : Some obligations in common for all Parties, others are different Some aspects are compulsory, others are more soft Self differentiation: efforts decided bottom up (NDC Nationally Determined Contributions)

9 AMBITIOUS AND DYNAMIC 9

10 Long term Objectives Vision Strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty 10 Objectives 1. Limit temperature rise: well below 2 C above pre industrial levels to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above preindustrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts 2. Resilience and low carbon development: foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production 3. Finance: Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development.

11 11 UNEP emissions gap report 2015 Baseline Global total emissions: 65Unconditional GtCO2e (range: INDC 60 70)case Gap= 14 GtCO2e Current policy trajectory ~3.5 C Global total emissions: INDC case 60 Conditional GtCO2e (range: 58 62) Gap= 12 GtCO2e Uncond. INDC case Unconditional INDC case ~3 3.5 C Global total emissions: 3.4 cm 56 GtCO2e (range: 54 59) Conditional INDCa case The INDCs present real increase in theemissions: ambition level Global total compared a projection 54 GtCO2e to (range: 52 57)of current policies Cond. INDC case The Gap The emissions gap in both 2025 Global total emissions: and 2030 will be very significant 42 GtCO2e (range: 31 44) and ambitions will need to be enhanced urgently. 2 C pathways

12 Ambition Cycle starting in 2018! Before Entry Into Force (2020) a facilitative dialogue among Parties in 2018 to take stock of the collective efforts of Parties in relation to progress towards the long term goal (decision 20) Requests those Parties whose intended nationally determined contribution pursuant to decision 1/CP.20 contains a time frame up to 2030 to communicate or update by 2020 these contributions (decision 24) 12 Paris Agreement first global stocktake in 2023 and every five years thereafter (art. 14.1&2) The outcome of the global stocktake shall inform Parties in updating and enhancing, in a nationally determined manner, their actions and support (art. 14.3) Each Party shall communicate a nationally determined contribution every five years [ ] informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake (art. 4.9) Each Party s successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression beyond the Party s then current nationally determined contribution and reflect its highest possible ambition (art. 4.3) Developing country Parties [ ] are encouraged to move over time towards economy wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances. (art. 4.4)

13 Ambition Cycle not mitigation only 13 Source: ACT 2015 consortium, WRI

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15 BUILDING BLOCKS

16 MITIGATION

17 Bottom up Approach 17 Each Party shall communicate a nationally determined contribution every five years (NB: updates have to represent a progression towards more ambition) All Parties [ ] formulate and communicate long term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (art. 4.19)

18 Binding global objectives 18 global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science (=IPCC) achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century (art. 4.1)

19 Temperature goal Emissions goal 19 Source: M. Meinshausen, Australian German Climate & Energy College, The University of Melbourne, climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au

20 Carbon Market globally regulated 20 Parties can cooperate in the implementation of their (I)NDC, in particular through 2 mechanisms: 1. International transfer of mitigation outcomes that needs to ensure environmental integrity and transparency [ ] and shall apply robust accounting to ensure, inter alia, the avoidance of double counting 2. Mechanism to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and support sustainable development [ ] To facilitate participation in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by public and private entities [and] To deliver an overall mitigation in global emissions

21 INDCs putting a price on Carbon 21 Ref. in INDCs to: Domestic ETS and carbon taxes Planned / possible use of int. market mechanisms Source: EC, Adapted from WRI CAIT

22 ADAPTATION AND LOSS & DAMAGE

23 Adaptation 23 Objective enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development (art. 7.1) Parity with mitigation The provision of scaled up financial resources should aim to achieve a balance between adaptation and mitigation (art. 9.4) Differentiation taking into account the urgent and immediate needs of those developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable (art. 7.2) Universality Each party shall engage in adaptation planning processes (art. 7.9) and submit and update periodically an adaptation communication (art. 7.10)

24 Loss & Damage 24 the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, [ ], and the role of sustainable development in reducing the risk of loss and damage. (art. 8.1) Continuation of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) and establishment of a Clearinghouse for Risk Transfer and a Task force on displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change (decision 48 50)

25 FINANCE

26 Objectives Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development. (art. 2.1 c) a progression beyond previous efforts (art. 9.3) a balance between adaptation and mitigation (art. 9.4) Universal, differentiated Developed country Parties shall provide [public] financial resources to assist developing country Parties [and] take the lead (art. 9.1 & 9.3) Other Parties are encouraged to provide or continue to provide such support voluntarily. (art. 9.2) taking into account [ ] the priorities and needs of developing country Parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and have significant capacity constraints, such as the least developed countries and small island developing States (art. 9.4) Scale and sources Developed country Parties committed to jointly providing USD 100 billion annually through Prior to 2025, a new collective quantified goal from a floor of USD 100 billion per year shall be set (Decision 54) mobilizing climate finance from a wide variety of sources, instruments and channels, noting the significant role of public funds (art. 9.3) 26

27 Making finance flows consistent = Shifting Trillions 27 Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development. (art. 2.1 c) Source: IEA (2015) World Energy Investment Outlook

28 Making finance flows consistent = Shifting Trillions 28 Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development. (art. 2.1 c)

29 TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY

30 Objective provide a clear understanding of climate change action [ ] including clarity and tracking of progress towards achieving Parties individual nationally determined contributions [ ] on support provided and received, [ ] to inform the global stocktake under Article 14, 30 Common rules with flexibility an enhanced transparency framework for action and support, with built in flexibility which takes into account Parties different capacities (art. 13.1); recognizing the special circumstances of the least developed countries and small island developing States (art. 13.3) implemented in a facilitative, non intrusive, non punitive manner, respectful of national sovereignty, and avoid placing undue burden on Parties. (art. 13.3)

31 31 Review Information submitted by each Party [ ] shall undergo a technical expert review [ ] In addition, each Party shall participate in a facilitative, multilateral consideration of progress (art ) Compliance mechanism (no sanctions) A mechanism to facilitate implementation of and promote compliance with the provisions of this Agreement is hereby established The mechanism [ ] shall be expert based and facilitative in nature and function in a manner that is transparent, nonadversarial and non punitive.

32 IN A NUTSHELL 32

33 Global, Ambitious & Binding Goals + Global stocktake + Progressive ambition cycle + Bottom up approach for all + Obligation to be transparent for all 33 = ALL PARTIES held ACCOUNTABLE on the INTERNATIONAL and NATIONAL level

34 AND NOW? 34

35 Today we celebrate, tomorrow we have to act. This is what the world expects from us. (M. Arias Cañete, COP21) 35

36 Getting 196 Countries To Agree On Climate Change Was The Easy Part. Now comes the real work. (C. Figueres, World Economic Forum 2016, Davos) 36

37 Tomorrow the EU will have to act 37 European Council 18 December 2015 It invites the Commission and the Council to assess the results of COP21 by March 2016, in particular in view of the 2030 climate and energy framework and to prepare the next steps. Essential political questions: Raise the ambition level pre 2020? New INDC by 2020? How to deal with the < 1,5 C goal? Review the European Low Carbon Roadmap? ETS Carbon Leakage vs. more universal character of the Agreement? How to reach the climate finance objective? Integrate the 5 year cycle in EU processes like the Energy Union

38 Integration into EU policy cycle Five pillars of the Energy Union: 1. Energy security, solidarity and trust 2. Completion of a competitive, internal European energy market 3. Moderation of demand through energy efficiency 4. The decarbonisation of the EU energy mix 5. Research, innovation and competitiveness. 38

39 Tomorrow the EU will have to act 39 EC communication Road from Paris (2/03/2016) Ratification by EU, ASAP 1,5 C : In depth analysis of economic and social transformations long term low GHG emissions strategy by 2020 Fostering enabling environment by : energy transition, innovation, financial flows, carbon pricing & stakeholder involvement EU 2030 Energy and climate package to be swiftly completed Keep the Carbon Leakage provisions under review Fully Participate (with other parties) in 5 year cycle Continued international engagement and support

40 Tomorrow the EU will have to act 40 Environment Council 04/03 : BE Position PA architecture (LTG, 5 yr cycle) is crucial for driving ambition integrating the 5 yr cycle in EU legislation Updated Low Carbon Roadmap (taking into account political, scientific and socio economic aspects) Need to start analytical work ASAP EU target : at least 40% (2030 wrt 1990) fair burden sharing, taking into account cost efficiency Contribute to global dynamic of increasing level of ambition by all Parties Support developing countries NDCs refining and implementation Early ratification

41 as will Belgium Broeikasgasemissies (Mt CO2 equivalenten) ESD objective Projection WEM 24% 30% 37%

42 Energy Union = Integrated Energy & Climate Plans 42 Objectives, policies and measures for the 5 dimensions National contributions towards achieving the common EU objectives Non ETS > Policies and measures The interaction between the different dimensions (contribution RES & EE to GHG reductions, links with interconnection, etc.) A description of the planned policies and measures to achieve each objective as well as the interactions. Integrated projections & indicators Projections and analytical basis of the plan including a reference and policy scenario (with 2030 objective) The basis for biennial progress reports Integrated evaluation method

43 State of the Energy Union 2015 GHG Emissions LU, IE, BE and AT are not on track BE projections fall short of 2020 target by 6 percentage points. Certain features of the BE tax system are environmentally harmful (incl. tax treatment for company cars) 43 RES FR, LU, MT, NL, UK and to a lesser extent BE and ES, need to assess whether their policies are sufficient and effective EE Increase in energy consumption mainly due to BE, CZ, DE, IE, FR, HU, NL, AT, SK and UK. BE, EE, FR, DE, NL, PL and SE need to reduce energy consumption at a higher rate in than in

44 European Semester Country Report Belgium (CION Staff Working Doc 26/02) Barring a change in policies, Belgium is expected to fall short of its GHG emission reduction target. There is considerable potential for a green tax shift which stems, among others, from the favourable tax treatment of company cars and fuel cards, which contribute to pollution and congestion Advantageous tax treatment for company cars has a high budgetary cost in terms of revenue foregone, estimated at approximately 0.9 % of GDP annually

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46 A set of 5 scenarios reaching 80 to 95% GHG emission reduction Spatial planning, working arrangements, social innovation and networks, reducing meat consumption, BEHAVIOUR SCENARIO ( 80%) CORE SCENARIO ( 80%) Overall feasibility, high ambition level but not technical maximum, TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO ( 80%) Role of technologies, risks and opportunities, R&D, 95% GHG REDUCTION SCENARIO EU INTEGRATION SCENARIO ( 87%) Stretch all levers to reach the higher end of the reduction range Transmission and back up requirements, EU energy integration, Source: Belgium OPEERA model (Climact, VITO)

47 It is technically feasible to drastically reduce GHG emissions in Belgium without reducing industrial activity 47 Source: Belgium OPEERA model (Climact, VITO)

48 Overall investments and costs 48 Average annual costs (undiscounted, , million EUR) Source: Belgium OPEERA model (Climact, VITO)

49 Macroeconomic impacts of the transition 49 Study in progress, foreseen mid 2016 (Climact, BfP, Oxford Economics et UCL) Focus on competitiveness, employment and co benefits Prior consultations of the stakeholders: Through the Central Economic Council (CCE/CRB) and the Federal Council for Sustainable Development (CFDD/FRDO) + Regional bodies 6 workshops foreseen Regional administrations consulted

50 Positive GROWTH compatible with high GHG emissions reduction 50 GDP and CO 2 : putting the scenario in an historical perspective (Hermes, million 2005 / million tons in that year) 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 CO2 GDP Source: Climact and Federal Planning Bureau % 46% 46% in CO 2 in 2030 is compatible with a slight GDP increase when taking into account mitigation measures, an adequate fiscal policy, and a coordinated European policy GDP Hermes GLOBAL GDP Hermes Reference CO2 Hermes GLOBAL CO2 Hermes Reference

51 Financing the transition 51 Paris Agreement Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development. (art. 2.1 c) Study on low carbon investments in Belgium: Expected by April Trinomics & Ernst and Young Focus: Flows from the sources to the final recipients Existing or conceivable public financial instruments Meetings of the main representatives Workshop to present the results

52 Climate finance flows in Belgium 52

53 Thank you!