Danish Wind Power Jan-June 2017

Transcription

1 Danish Wind Power Jan-June 217 Contents Conclusion... 1 Foreword 2 Units 2 Sources 2 The Danish Electric Load 3 Windpower 4 Relation between wind power and load 5 Useful Wind Power. 6 Useful Wind Power and Wind Power 7 Import and export of electricity 8 Correlation between wind power, import and export 9 Wind Power, Load and Foreign Exchange. 11 Wind energy and load 15 Intelligent Systems 16 Conclusion The Danish data for variation in wind power, export and import for the months January to June 217have been investigated. It has been found that the wind power part of the Danish electricity consumption is 344 or 34 % and not as generally assumed 44, due to the simple fact that a lot of the wind power is exported when it blows. It has been shown too that the Danish wind success had not been possible without back up from the Scandinavian hydro power capacities. And that this is a unique situation, so that other countries will depend on thermal back-up capacities, since no other back up capacity of any importance has been invented so far. It has been shown that the German system can t give an essential back up for the Danish wind turbines. Roughly speaking the wind in Denmark and Germany is present and not present at the same times. And Germany has already problems enough to transfer wind power from the windy north to south, where the weather is more pleasant. Sören Kjärsgaard 1 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

2 Foreword The author is a retired chemical engineer with a broad experience from the chemical industry and has no personal interest in any of the treated questions. The authors personal views are written in italics. They may be discussed of course, whereas it is the authors hope that the figures and diagrams are indisputable. All the data are based on the sources mentioned here under. All Energinet.dk s data are given every hour. The capacity data on page 7 are taken from Energistyrelsens Stamdata. Units The author thinks that numbers normally are not very interesting unless you can relate them to something known or understandable. For instance it not very interesting to tell that the wind power at a certain time was 5 MW, but it may be interesting that it vas 1,25 times the load at a certain time. Then the interested reader may wonder: What do we do with all that electricity? Nor does it make much sense, to tell that we imported say 3 MW at a time and exported 25 MW at another time. But if the figures are shown as part of the consumption they give meaningful information. However it is practical to express these figures not in % but in. The author has during his career had to make long and complicated calculations including many constants and variables. It is much easier and safer only to use units defined in Systeme Internationale. So instead of writing that the export was 75% of the load we write that the export was 75 Load. A little longer may be, but precise and clear. Sources Alle the data used in this report are taken from rkedsdatatemplate.aspx?language=en Sören Kjärsgaard 2 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

3 The Danish Electric Load 4 MW 3 Load, MW. Jan-Jun 217 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jan-Jun Average Max Min Stddev Observations GWh Load MW, Denmark, Jan - Mar Hrs from beginning of year Load MW, Denmark, Apr-June MW Hrs from beginning of year Sören Kjärsgaard 3 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

4 Windpower Wind Power, MW. Jan-Jun 217 Jan-Mar Apr- Jun Jan- Jun Wind, MW, Jan-Mar 217 Jan-Jun% of capacity Average Max Min ,2 Stddev Observations GWh Installed capacity end of June 217, MW Hrs from beginning of year 5 Wind, MW, Apr-Jun Hrs from beginning of year The wind industry likes very much to tell that wind power from on shore turbines is the cheapest form for energy. Howeveer, it forgets to tell that the wind energy must have a 1% back up capacity, and that this costs somewhat. Sören Kjärsgaard 4 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

5 Relation between wind power and load This is shown in the graphs below. The unit is. Thus 1 corresponds to 1%. Wind/Load, Spring 217 Jan-mar Apr-Jun Jan-Jun Average Max Min Stddev Observations Wind/Load,, Jan-Mar Hrs from beginning of year Wind/Load,, Apr-Jun Hrs from beginning of year The average load in the first half of 217 was 393 MW, and the average wind power was 1739 MW, i.e. 44,2%, or as we prefer to express it 442. However, since the wind power sometimes surpasses the load, i.e. when the wind/load> it is evident that this can t be the whole truth. Sören Kjärsgaard 5 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

6 It might be an interesting experiment to make the wind industry responsible for the total electricity supply. The result might be less wind in the system if the decisions were based on economic calculations. Even after a reasonable carbon dioxide tax. Alas, the people, or at least the elected representatives have decided that saving the climate is holy and thus indisputable duty. In an article in Jyllands Posten on September 3.217, the author correctly writes that we can t save our country and freedom unless our own soldiers have boots on. He forgot to tell, that there will be no boots and no uniforms and no steel to produce weapons either unless several Asian nations permit it, because the European politicians in there endeavour to save the climate and the World have forced a large part of our energy intensive industries to transfer the production to Asia. Useful Wind Power. In fact 44,2% is very far from the whole truth. If you any time subtract the net export from the wind power you get a realistic idea of how much the wind power contributes to the actual load. We call this remaining wind power Useful Wind Power Useful Wind Jan-Jun. 216 and Load average MW Windpower average MW Wind Power/Load Useful Wind Power MW Proportion useful Wind Power Rectified Wind Power/load Observations We find that of the 1739 MW wind power produced Jan-Jun 217 on average only 1363 MW remains as useful wind power after the net export has been subtracted. Thus the wind power proportion of the load is reduced from 44,9% to 34,7% or 347 W Wind/kW Load. The data for Jan-Jun 216 are shown too. The average wind power in 216 was considerably lower than in 216 than in 217, which can t be ascribed to increased wind power capacity. The wind power in the first half of 217 was 24 % higher than in 216 The capacities on June 3, 217 were, and the capacities only 3% higher than a year before. Wind Power generating Capacities June 3 Year Off shore On Shore Sum The wind industry has not informed the public how to cope with an electricity supply, with a variation of 24 % from year to year. Sören Kjärsgaard 6 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

7 Useful Wind Power and Wind Power Useful Wind 6 Wind 5 Power Useful Wind W/KW Wind Power Useful Wind Wind Power Jan-Jun 216 y = -2E-5x 2 +,42x + 16,1 R² =, Wind Power MW Useful Wind Wind Power, Jan-Jun 217 The graphs to the left illustrate how the useful part of the wind power depends on the produced wind power effect. In the ideal case the points would make a straight line, where Y=, indicating that for each kw wind power produced watts would be used in the Danish system.. It can be seen, that nearly all the wind produced by an effect lower than MW is useful. When the production reaches 2 MW only about 9 wind power is useful a little higher in 216 than in 217 simply because less wind was produced in 216. By a wind power effect of 4 MW te corresponding figures for useful wind/wind power are about 65 and 61 W useful Wind/kW Wind y = -1E-5x 2 -,583x + 134,6 R² =, Wind Power MW So it is very well justified to ask if it makes sense to expand the production capacity. Sören Kjärsgaard 7 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

8 Import and export of electricity. Import and export of electricity relative to the load is described above. However the load is variable so the absolute figures and the corresponding graphs are shown in the following. (Import is positive, and export negative) Danish Import, Export and Load,MW, Jan-Jun 217 Jan - Mar Apr-Jun Jan-June Load Jan-June Average Max Min Stddev Observations France. 2 Danish import netto MW - Danish Import and Export, MW, Jan-Mar 217 It is remarkable, that the import can reach a level at 3326 MW, where the average load is 393 MW. It is unthinkable that you could reach a similar level in for instance Germany and The large fluctuation in im- and export is no big surprise. But it might be a good idea for UK, Germany and France to ask how to handle a wind power generation corresponding to 44 % of the load! Danish import 5 netto MW Hrs from beginning of year Danish import and Export, MW, Apr-Jun Hrs from beginning of Year The average German load is about 55 GW. Operating under the same conditions as Denmark, Germany should then be able to import 46 GW, and to export 4 GW. Furthermore, Die Energiewende must necessarily imply a considerable increase in the use of electricity. The above mentioned report from The Frauenhofer Institute proposes to increase the German wind power by a factor 8. Sören Kjärsgaard 8 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

9 Correlation between wind power, import and export. Export and import of electricitty Jan-June 217 Norway + Sweden Germany Total Average MW Max MW Min MW Stddev MW Observations GWh The figures for trade with Norway and Sweden and Germany are rectified for the transfers through Denmark Danish import and export Jan-Jun 217 y = -,785x ,7 R² =,79 Danish import netto MW Wind Power MW (Import is positive and export negative). The need for back up is convincingly illustrated by the graph above. Denmark gets mainly the back up from Swedish and Norwegian hydro power, and to a lower degree from the large German system. We exported on average 14 MW to Germany and imported 234 MW from Norway and Sweden in the first hal of 217. The trade with Norway+Sweden and Germany is shown hereunder. Sören Kjärsgaard 9 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

10 Wind effect and exchange with Norway and Sweden. Jan-June 217 Exchange Norway and Sweden MW y = -,626x ,5 R² =, Wind Power MW Exchange Germany MW Wind effect and exchange with Germany. Jan-June y = -,1546x + 255,17 R² =, Wind Power MW MW Wind and exchange with Norway+Sweden and Germany January Day Wind Exchange N+S Exchange D Sören Kjärsgaard 1 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

11 5 Wind and exchange with Norway+Sweden and Germany June MW Day Wind Exchange N+S Exchange D It is easy to see that the exchange with Norway and Sweden is much larger than the exchange with Germany. Especially in the winter. So it can be concluded, that wind power can t be back up for wind power in a neighbouring country. You need hydropower or thermal power. The Scandinavian hydro power capacity is far from large enough to deliver back up to Western Europe. The Scandinavian hydro capacity is roughly 5 % of the entire Western European capacity. So the hydro capacity is insufficient, and green energy and Energie Wende remains a fata morgana. Wind Power, Load and Foreign Exchange. This is shown in some detail on the following graphs. The graphs may need a little explanation. Two values are shown. 1. Wind/Load in the unit. If the wind power at a given time is 2 MW and the load is 4 MW, then result will be Exchange/load in the unit. If the import at a given time is MW and the load is 4 MW, then the result will be 25 Sören Kjärsgaard 11 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

12 Wind/Load and Exchange/Load, 217 Wind/Load Exchange/Load Jan Feb Jan Feb Average Max Min Stddev Windpower/Load and Exchange/Load Denmark JAnuary 217 Please note, that on January 1, the wind power reached watt/kw Load, and that the export reached a value of 7 load Wind/Load Exchange/Load Day Windpower/Load and Exchange/Load Denmark February 217 On February 2 the wind power reached 13 load and the export was 8 load. On January the imports were about 4 load. February was very windy, so on average the export was about 134 load Wind/Load Day Exchange/Load Sören Kjärsgaard 12 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

13 Wind/Load and Exchange/Load, 217 Wind/Load Exchange/Load Mar Apr M;ar Apr Average Max Min Stddev Windpower/Load and Exchange/Load Denmark March 217 The export/load reaches 768 on April 13, and the import/load reaches 431 on April 15 at 9 o clock The export/load reaches 768 on April 13, and the import/load reaches 431 on April 15 at 9 o clock Day Wind/Load Exchange/Load Windpower/Load and Exchange/Load Denmark April 217 Denmark is generally considered a fore runner in windpower. That has been possible because the Danish electricity load is only about 5% of our neighbours, and because Norway and Sweden have a hydro power capacity about ten times the Danish average load Wind/Load Day Exchange/Load Sören Kjärsgaard 13 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

14 Wind/Load and Exchange/Load, 217 Wind/Load Exchange/Load May Jun May Jun Average Max Min Stddev Windpower/Load and Exchange/Load Denmark May Wind/Load Day Exchange/Load Windpower/Load and Exchange/Load Denmark June 217 In May and June the import reached a maximum of 799 load and the export 586 load. The German load is about 55 GW, so if the German wind power capacity was relatively as large as the Danish, Germany should be able to import 44 GW, and export more than 3 GW. Alternatively be able to send 3 GW into the storage system, and hours later receive 44 GW back from this storage system. An interesting perspective described in the below mentioned report form The Frauenhofer Institute Day Wind/Load Exchange/Load Sören Kjärsgaard 14 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

15 erneuerbare-energien-fuer-strom-und-waerme-in-deutschland.pdf This report describes a system where wind power among other is used to produce hydrogen, which together with carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide obtained from burning of straw should be used to produce methanol, which admittedly can be stored. The author is an experienced chemical engineer and considers this report to be absolute nonsense with only one purpose: To supply some researchers with tax payers money. Wind energy and load 6 Danish electricity import and load against generated Wind power Jan- Jun Load and Import MW 2 y =,13x + 375,6 R² =, y = -,785x ,7 R² =, Wind Power MW It is no surprise that the import of electricity is high, when the wind power is low and vice versa. The correlation is expressed by the equation Y = -,785X + 158, where Y is the import and X the wind power. The correlation coefficient R 2 =,71 i.e. R=,84. Sören Kjärsgaard 15 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx

16 Intelligent Systems There has been much talk about an intelligent electric system, where more electricity is used when it blows. It is observed that such a system does not exist even though we have had wind power in the grid in 35 years. There is hardly any correlation between wind power and load. But it blows more in the dark and cold January than in June. So it is evident that we use more electricity when it blows. Although with a very low correlation coefficient. An intelligent electric system presupposes political skill and large investments. May be, however, the non existent correlation between wind power and load, is due to the circumstance that the politicians after all are intelligent enough not pursue such an intelligent system? The Danish Wind Turbine industry will surely not like the conclusion: A high proportion of wind power in a system implies that the system is small compared to the neighbouring countries, and that these have a large and easily controllable hydro power capacity. Or that they are willing to have back up in form of lignite and Russian gas. Hardly what the Germans thought when their chancellor decided to make an Energiewende Sören Kjärsgaard September 24, 217. Ludvig Holbergsvej 16, DK 85 Grenaa Denmark Telf // Mail: SHK@post.tele.dk Sören Kjärsgaard 16 af 16 Danish windpower-jan-juni-217.docx