Wind Power at a Distance: A Voyage around the Globe, the US and Africa

Transcription

1 Wind Power at a Distance: A Voyage around the Globe, the US and Africa Jeremy Firestone, Director UD Center for Carbon-free Power Integration April 26, 2016 UD-Africa Energy

2 UD Wind Power Program 17 Faculty across four UD Colleges Integrated, interdisciplinary research Service engagement with policymakers ~ 40 peer review publications 2 MW Lewes Wind Turbine (commissioned June 2010) Powers coastal campus, educational platform, with revenues funding research and graduate student fellowships Graduate Certificate: Wind Power Science, Engineering & Policy Industry, Government, Academic/International Partnerships Gamesa Technology Company National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) UD-Technical University of Denmark (DTU) 2

3 Research Focal Areas Resource estimates (land, ocean, airborne wind) Power integration via transmission and storage (particularly grid-integrated electric vehicles) Economic/Technology Frontiers Integrated design for lower-cost deployment Siting Social, economic, spatial and policy analysis Geological influences on project siting, design and construction Fluid dynamic approaches to turbine layout 3

4 Global Wind Growth 4

5 Installed Capacity by Region/Year Less than 1% of global installed wind capacity is in Africa 5

6 Global/Regional Installed Capacity & Recent Trends 6

7 Installed Capacity within Africa 7

8 Market Forecast by Region 8

9 Installed Wind Capacity by Country AWEA

10 Wind Generation by Leading Countries AWEA

11 Wind: Percent Generation by Country 11

12 Global Offshore Wind Capacity 12

13 European OSW Growth (EWEA 2015) 13

14 AWEA

15 AWEA 2016 Wind s share of the US Pie: Recent Installations 15

16 Wind s share of total and renewable generation in the US AWEA

17 17

18 74 GW installed by end of GW installed in 2015 AWEA

19 Wind Generation Share by US State AWEA

20 Trends (1) Increased Turbine Nameplate Capacity 20

21 Trends (2): Turbines increasingly optimized for low wind regimes AWEA

22 Trends (3): Falling LCOE Recent Projects at $25-$60/MWh 22

23 Trends (4): LCOE driven in part by lower turbine costs ($/kw) 23

24 A TURN TOWARD AFRICA 24

25 Power Pools 25

26 GDP, Electricity Access, Usage by Region IRENA, Africa

27 African Wind Resources Theoretical potential exceeds demand by several orders of magnitude Of resource, 15% considered to be of high quality East, North and Southern Africa have the best wind resource All countries in North Africa Niger in West Africa Chad in Central Africa Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, Uganda in East Africa Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia in Southern Africa IRENA, Estimating Renewable Energy Potential in Africa,

28 But of course, we need to account for social and environmental variables IRENA, Estimating Renewable Energy Potential in Africa,

29 Renewable Contribution to African Energy IRENA, Africa

30 Africa: Installed Wind Capacity More than 3300 MW by end of 2015 More than half of which was installed in 2014 and 2015 SA now > 1000MW Egypt now > 800MW Ethiopia > 300MW 2030 target: 101,000MW IRENA, Africa 2030 Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) between $46 and $145/MWh 30

31 2030 Wind Roadmap by African Region IRENA, Africa

32 All solutions are local: Economics point to a bright future for well-sited wind development IRENA, Africa

33 NORTH AFRICA AS AN EXAMPLE 33

34 North Africa Installed Capacity (2014) Egypt 810 Morocco 787 Tunisia 245 Algeria 10 Libya? Mauritania 0 Total

35 North Africa: Projected Energy Demand to 2030 by Country IRENA, Africa Power Sector 35

36 North Africa 2030 Wind: Possible Contribution to Installed Capacity IRENA, Africa Power Sector, Diversification and Environmental Investment Scenario, 36

37 North Africa Wind Development Targets by Country GWEC

38 9-10 m/s along the Suez Mortensen et al,

39 North Africa Framework for Wind Typically three types of developers State/utility Winner of competitive bid through private investments Industrial self-producers Projects have typically benefited from preferential financing through international funding agencies Projects have benefit from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol (405MW in Egypt), although present prices for Certified Emissions Reductions are near zero for new projects 39

40 North Africa Framework for Wind (2) Tax incentives and grants have been used Custom duty exemptions (e.g., Egypt) Value added tax exemptions (e.g., Morocco) National Renewable Energy Funds (e.g., Algeria, fund by a 0.5% levy on oil taxes) Results to date: All existing projects in Egypt, for example, are owned by its New and Renewable Energy Authority 40

41 Recent Developments in North Africa Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) Egypt and Morocco have identified and allocated areas with good wind resources for development MOU with Lekela Power for 250MW (2015) Actis (emerging markets investor) Mainstream Renewable Power Direct sales to consumers can use the national grid subject to a wheeling charge (Egypt) Feed-in Tariffs (FIT) (Egypt and Algeria) In Egypt set at 4 /kwh 41

42 Challenges and Barriers in North Africa Grid infrastructure Project development timelines Achieving local economic development E.g., no industry in Egypt 42

43 A look back to the US AWEA

44 US Drivers: Renewable Mandates 44

45 Renewable mandates by themselves expected to drive a 50% increase in capacity by

46 Federal tax policies have been important, but have led to boom & bust Compare Nuclear enacted in 2005; expires end of 2020 But now have in place a 5 year production tax credit with a phase-out by

47 Development Considerations for Africa (Areas of Potential UD-Africa Collaboration)* Resource size/wind speed/site layout Alternatives/externalities Economic development/supply chain Investment capital Grid considerations Regulatory policies Mandate, Taxes, Fit, Regulatory Design Technology best adapted to locale Topography Geologic constraints Current land use Social constraints Environmental constraints Human Capacity LCOE 47

48 Thank you! ` Jeremy Firestone jf@udel.edu South Africa, Grobler du Preez, shutterstoc IRENA, Africa