FAIRMODE WG4 - Planning.» Alain Clappier & Philippe Thunis

Transcription

1 FAIRMODE WG4 - Planning» Alain Clappier & Philippe Thunis 1

2 What do we intend by planning in WG4?. WG1: assessment Base case model validation WG4: planning Scenario model validation Objective: Quantify the model accuracy when run in scenario mode via a common template with the following characteristics: - Simplicity - Comparability - Overview. 2

3 Why do we need something? APPRAISAL FP7 project has shown that the base case simulations are validated in only 40% of the reported cases, in addition, scenarios are never validated. Indeed, Air Quality Models are used, for a large part, in scenario mode to produce results in order to design abatement strategies. 3

4 What is currently done? Trend analysis: e. g. Eurodelta exercise DC model /Dt DC observation /Dt Courtesy: K. Cuvelier 4

5 What is currently done? Segregation periods Example: E week C week E week-end C week-end DC model =(C week C week-end ) DC observation =(C week C week-end ) Courtesy: K. Cuvelier 5

6 What is currently done? Model inter-comparison exercise e.g: Citydelta, Eurodelta, POMI, etc % reduction DPM / PM over North Italy DE/E = 100% over Lombardia DC/C over different North Italian regions ref: POMI exercise 6

7 What is currently done? Model inter-comparison exercise % reduction DO 3 / O 3 over North Italy DE/E = 100% over Lombardia DC/C over different North Italian regions ref: POMI exercise 7

8 What did we propose so far? Potency concept We proposed simple indicators to quantify the model responses to emission reduction and facilitate model inter-comparison. DCC p D EE is the % emission reduction over a given area, then: D p C C ΔE/E < 0 ΔC/C > 0 ΔE/E < 0 ΔC/C < ΔE/E=100% ΔC/C=0% ΔE/E= ΔC/C=0% Emission reduction has no effects on concentrations ΔE/E=100% ΔC/C= ΔE/E= ΔC/C=25% ΔE/E=100% ΔC/C=100% ΔE/E= ΔC/C= Full emission reduction reduces all concentrations 8

9 What did we propose so far? Potency concept only the cells containing concentrations greater than the 95% percentile Yearly averaged PM p 0.5 DE E 100% DC C 9

10 What did we propose so far? Potency concept Potencies can be computed for each precursors. Yearly averaged PM p ALL p NOx p SO2 p VOC p PPM p NH3 The PPM produce the main contribution to the PM formation, then NH 3 and NO x. 10

11 What did we propose so far? Potency concept If the relation between precursor and concentration is linear the potency is constant for every percentage emission reduction. p ALL p ALL Yearly averaged PM p NO 2 x p SO p VOC p NO x p SO 2 p VOC p PPM p PPM p NH 3 p NH 3 p p the non-linearity is weak. 11

12 What did we propose so far? Potency concept p p p p p p p ALL NO SO VOC PPM NH int x 2 3 p ALL p ALL Yearly averaged PM p NO 2 x p SO p VOC p NO 2 x p SO p VOC p PPM p PPM p NH 3 p int p NH 3 p int 12

13 C Potency concept What did we propose so far? Yearly averaged & daily episodes PM Time (day) 13

14 What did we propose so far? Potency concept 3 European regions: PM in Flanders PM in Silesia PM in Lombardia 14

15 What did we propose so far? Potency concept other graphical representations (presented last year) 15

16 Potency concept What did we propose so far? D-planning tool draw graphics of potencies starting from 11 scenarios. Datasets have been delivered and will be analyzed: Contact Model TNO & VITO LOTOS-EUROS & AURORA Europe Location of reductions TNO LOTOS-EUROS BENELUX VITO AURORA Belgium Univ. Aveiro TAPM Porto region 16

17 What is currently done? Different methods Trend analysis & Segregation periods DC model DC observation DC are calculated using different emission levels BUT also different meteorological situations. Model inter-comparison DC model / DE model (DC model /C model ) / (DE model /E model ) or DC/DE depend only from different emissions BUT there is no possible comparison with observations. 17

18 What do we propose? We could not identify a fully satisfying approach to validate a model used in scenario mode. The potency approach developed in the framework of FAIRMODE-WG4 can certainly help for results interpretation but it is still not a real validation methodology (no comparison with observations). Need of further brainstorming Group volunteers (around 5) Preliminary Guidance TC

19 Thank you for your attention 19