Air quality in Belgium Road transport sector

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1 Air quality in Belgium Road transport sector Charlotte Vanpoucke Wetenschappelijk medewerker (VMM) bij de Intergewestelijke Cel voor het Leefmilieu (IRCEL) Belgian national debate on carbon pricing Brussels, 07/12/2017

2 AIR QUALITY IN BELGIUM Most concentrations of air pollutants in Belgium are below EU limits. Green: concentrations in Belgium are currently below the limit/target value and will also be respected in the future. WHO targets are generally not met in Belgium. Blue: In a Most long-term of the concentrations perspective, measured the EU aims in Belgium to respect are below air pollution the target standards value, except set during by the years WHO. with unfavourable -> The meteorological concentrations conditions. of PM2.5 It is unclear and NO2 yet whether in Belgium limit/target were values respectively will be respected responsible in the for future. more than 8000 and more than 1800 premature deaths in Belgium in 2014 (EEA, 2017). Red: Concentrations in Belgium are above the limit/target value and will not be respected without additional -> The health costs of air pollution (i.a. the loss of 2.5 mio workdays/year) amount every emission reduction measures. year to 8 billion euro in Belgium (European Commission, 2017). Air quality has improved over the last decades, but concentrations of air pollutants still have a significant health and economic impact in Belgium. 3

3 Revised National Emission Ceilings Directive 2016/2284/EG (14/12/2016) Reduction targets Belgium 2020 and 2030 % to : Göteborgprotocol PM2,5 added 2025: trajectory Emissions in kt/year NEC NOx (-39%) -41% -59% SO (-70%) -43% -66% PM2, (-25%) -20% -39% VOC (-39%) -21% -35% NH (-4%) -2% -13%

4 EMISSIONS IN BELGIUM Evolution of the emissions of air pollutants in Belgium (from 1990, in % - Source: NEC 2017) ,66% & -34,57% -44,24% -52,81% & -52,92% -69,52% 20-88,33% NOx NMVOC SOx NH3 PM2.5 PM10 BC 5

5 EMISSIONS vs. CONCENTRATIONS Emissions = pollutants emitted to the air by different sources: industry, residential, traffic, agriculture,... Concentrations = pollutants measured in the ambient air For most air pollutants, there is no linear relation between the emissions and concentrations, due to Transboundary air pollution Meteorological conditions Atmospherical reactions

6 EMISSIONS vs. CONCENTRATIONS Emissions = pollutants emitted to the air by different sources: industry, residential, traffic, agriculture,... Concentrations = pollutants measured in the ambient air For most air pollutants, there is no linear relation between the emissions and concentrations, due to Transboundary air pollution Meteorological conditions Atmospherical reactions 2.00 Road traffic Exhaust PM Road traffic non-exhaust residential combustion Primary Emissions (total) Primary PM Secundary PM NO x (Transport) SO 2 (Industry) NH 3 (Agriculture) Secundary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA) ~ 40% PM10 Concentrations +33% +16% -35% -38% -73%

7 EMISSIONS vs. CONCENTRATIONS Emissions = pollutants emitted to the air by different sources: industry, residential, traffic, agriculture,... Concentrations = pollutants measured in the ambient air For most air pollutants, there is no linear relation between the emissions and concentrations, due to Transboundary air pollution Meteorological conditions Atmospherical reactions NO2 NOx = NO + NO2 NO2 + O2 NO + O3 300% 250% 200% 150% Road NOX Emissions (t) Road NO Emissions (t) Road NO2 Emissions (t) Road NO2/NOx NO2 concentraties Total NOx Emissions (t) +144% +53% 100% 50% -31% -38% -44% -49% 0%

8 1/12/2007 1/03/2008 1/06/2008 1/09/2008 1/12/2008 1/03/2009 1/06/2009 1/09/2009 1/12/2009 1/03/2010 1/06/2010 1/09/2010 1/12/2010 1/03/2011 1/06/2011 1/09/2011 1/12/2011 1/03/2012 1/06/2012 1/09/2012 1/12/2012 1/03/2013 1/06/2013 1/09/2013 1/12/2013 1/03/2014 1/06/2014 1/09/2014 1/12/2014 1/03/2015 1/06/2015 1/09/2015 1/12/2015 1/03/2016 1/06/2016 1/09/2016 1/12/2016 1/03/2017 NO 2 decrease in urban (traffic)stations less than expected 50 NO2, BC, PM10, PM2.5, en PMcoarse, Antwerpen, glijdende 12-maandgemiddelden januari februari % % 2 NO2 PM10 PM % PMcoarse BC Bron: intergewestelijke databank lucht, IRCEL

9 NO 2 decrease in urban (traffic)stations less than expected There is no or little decrease in NO2 concentrations at traffic monitoring stations. - Insufficient decrease of the NOx emissions by road transport (theoretic real emissions of Euro Standards) Dieselgate - Increase of primary NO2 (by use of oxidation catalysts and particulate filters in diesel cars) Black Carbon decreases thanks to the introduction of highly efficient diesel particulate filters (DPF) Bron: intergewestelijke databank lucht, IRCEL

10 Dieselgate: in Real Driving too much NOx emissions Bron: TNO, 15 EURO-6 dieselwagens, oktober 2016

11 EMISSIONS IN BELGIUM Evolution of the emissions from road transport(from 1990, in % - Source: NEC 2017) Nox NMVOC SOX PM2.5 PM10 BC -50% -63% -69% -81% -91% Since 1990, the emissions of most air pollutants has significantly decreased in the transport sector. Emission reduction thanks to implementation of new measures and technologies (fuels with low sulphur content, unleaded petrol, catalytic converters, particulate filters, Euro standards, ) Decrease of PM emissions are linked to the introduction of diesel particulate filters (since Euro 5/6), but the NOx emissions did not decrease as expected (dieselgate). 12

12 Share of ETS and non-ets in air pollutant emissions Origin of the Belgian emissions of air pollutants (Source: NEC 2017) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 7% 59,4% 43,9% 43,6% 40% 30% 20% 46,4% 18% 0,2% 14,6% 14,6% 39,2% 10% 0% NOx SOx PM2.5 PM10 Black carbon Other non-ets Road Transport Buildings ETS In Belgium, the non-ets sectors are significant contributors to the emissions of air pollutants. Except for SOx, the transport and the residential sectors are two major sources of air pollution (+ 50%). 13

13 100% 90% 80% 70% Emissions of air pollutants in the transport sector Share of fuels in road transport emissions in Belgium (Source: NEC 2017) 60% 50% 40% 30% LPG Gasoline Diesel CNG 20% 10% 0% PM10 emissions PM2.5 emissions NMVOC emissions NOx emissions NH3 emissions Type of engine Mileage km per year While approximately 60% of the vehicles in Belgium are diesel-powered, this fuel technology is the source of more than 90% of particulate matter emissions and of 95% of NOx emissions in the road transport sector. This is linked both to the higher number of kilometers that these vehicles drive every year and to the technology itself. The electrification of the transport sector foreseen in a low-carbon scenario should have a positive on the impact the emissions of air pollutants in Belgium. 14

14 Emissions of air pollutants in the transport sector PM10 Emissions in the transport sector PM2.5 Emissions in the transport sector 21% 39% 16% 29% 40% 55% Tyre and brakes Exhaust Abrasion Tyre and brakes Exhaust Abrasion Emissions of particulate matter in the transport sector aren t only linked to the burning of fossil fuels. Non-exhaust emissions from tyres, brakes and road abrasion are also significant contributors. Technological changes such as switching to electric vehicles will therefore not completely solve the issue of particulate matter emissions in the transport sector. The only way to do this is by decreasing the traffic volume 15

15 KEY MESSAGES Even though air quality has improved over the past years, air pollution still has a significant health and economic impact in Belgium. A large share of the air pollutants emitted in Belgium originate from non-ets sectors. Put together, transport and domestic heating represent more than half of the emissions for most air pollutants. An emission reduction of air pollutants in Belgium through a carbon tax will not have the same impact on the concentrations of all pollutants. There was an important decrease of particulate matter (and BC) emissions due to the introduction of highly efficient diesel particulate filters (since EURO-5/6), but NOx emissions did not decrease as expected (dieselgate). For PM, the relative share of exhaust emissions decreases, the non-exhaust emission share increases The cleanest km, is the km not driven! 16

Air quality in Belgium

Air quality in Belgium Charlotte Vanpoucke Wetenschappelijk medewerker (VMM) bij de Intergewestelijke Cel voor het Leefmilieu (IRCEL) Belgian national debate on carbon pricing Brussels, 24/11/2017 AIR