Volker Klotz. UFOPLAN-project /01

Transcription

1 An integrated measure-based approach to fulfil European air quality targets cost-effective on a national level First results from the German PAREST project Volker Klotz Jochen Theloke, Balendra Thiruchittampalam, Ulrike Kugler, Tatjana Geftler, Melinda Uzbasich, Renate Köble, Rainer Friedrich, Ulrich Dämmgen, Rainer Stern, Peter Builtjes, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Alexandra Kuhn UFOPLAN-project /01 Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

2 Agenda Introduction Compilation of an appropriate emission inventory Measures and bundles for Germany Modelling of the air quality and air quality changes Identification of cost-effective measure bundles Conclusion Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

3 Current situation Exceedances of limit values for PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in Germany and other EU-Countries New concentration limits from the Air quality directive (2008/50/EC) NEC-Directive: PM2.5 Emission ceiling Aims of PAREST Analysis of causes for the exceedances of limit values Identification of cost-effective mitigation measures and bundles for PM10, PM2.5 and aerosol precursors (NO x, SO 2, NH 3 and NMVOC) Modelling of implications on concentration of PM10, PM2.5 and NO 2 Project structure of PAREST AP1: Emissions und mitigation measures: IER, IZT, vti, TNO AP2: Modelling of air quality: FU Berlin, IfT, TNO AP3: Assessement, Conclusions and recommendations : all AP4: Projectmanagement: TNO Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

4 Analysis of German PM10 measurements traffic stations vs. urban background stations PM10-yearly average mean of all stations in µg/m Traffic stations Urban background stations Difference PM10-Exceedance days mean of all stations Traffic stations Urban background stations Difference Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

5 German official emission data 2005 Assessment Methodology Reference scenarios for 2010, 2015 and 2020 (Current legislation) Measures and bundles Germany GRIDDING Tool (1 x 1 ) High spatial resolved emission data set for Germany 1 x 1 GAINS NEC6_CP Scenario (2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020) for EU National projections from non-eu Countries High spatial resolved emission data set for Europe 5 x 5 Consistent European Emission data sets with an German specific data set CTMs (mainly REM-CalGrid, LOTOS-EUROS, LM-COSMOS, LM-Muscat) Assessement => Identification of cost-effective measure bundles Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

6 Methodolology for Emission allocation Point sources Coordinates Spatial distributed emissions Line sources Area sources Regional Distribution parameter Emissions on administrative units (e.g. NUTS 2) Traffic net Land use Emission Regionalisation Spatial Allocation Visualisation of gridded data Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

7 Resolution: Results 1/60 x1/60 ~ 1min x 1min (WGS84) ~ 1.2 km OWx1,8 NS PM 2.5 [Mg/Cell] SO2 [Mg/Cell] Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

8 PM10 emission in 2020 according to NEC6 current policy, resolution 5 x 5 Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

9 German official emission data 2005 Assessment Methodology Reference scenarios for 2010, 2015 and 2020 (Current legislation) Measures and bundles Germany GRIDDING Tool (1 x 1 ) High spatial resolved emission data set for Germany 1 x 1 GAINS NEC6_CP Scenario (2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020) for EU National projections from non-eu Countries High spatial resolved emission data set for Europe 5 x 5 Consistent European Emission data sets with an German specific data set CTMs (mainly REM-CalGrid, LOTOS-EUROS, LM-COSMOS, LM-Muscat) Assessement => Identification of cost-effective measure bundles Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

10 Mitigation measures Compilation of suited measures (mainly based on national research projects funded by German UBA) The following source groups are considered : i. Energy production (LCP and small combustion) ii. iii. iv. Production-/Industrial processes Solvent and Product use (incl. Fire works and tobacco smoke) Mobile Sources (On-road und Off-road) v. Agriculture Assessment of the impacts from climate change policies to air quality and vice versa Uniform description of the mitigation measures Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

11 Description of mitigation measures, example Name: Eco-driving Pollutants: CO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, Short description: Steady driving, early shifting of gears and avoiding unnecessary acceleration/braking can save up to 10% of fuel. [ ] Abatement potential: Reduction potential: 12% CO2 for PC in urban areas, [ ] Implementation degree: 35% (Abatement potential = reduction potential * implementation degree) Approach Promotion of driver trainings, campaigns, etc State of implementation Implemented in the Netherlands, [ ] Time horizon for implementation Implementation possible until: Costs The Dutch programm Het nieuwe rijden cost 30 Mio in [ ] the driver saves x in fuel costs Synergies/Interaction with other environmental goals (e.g. climate protection) - Reduction of noise and accidents Data sources/references NFR-Code: 1 A 3 b SNAP-Code: 07 Name: Road transport Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

12 Measures: examples Small combustion sector: Changes in the 1.BImSchV (e.g. reduction of the limit value for PM, changed requirements concerning fuel properties) Mobile machines: Stronger emission limit values Cost internalisation of emission impacts for air traffic activites (Kerosine tax and integration in Emission trading schemes) Climate change policies Emission dependent landing fees for air traffic activities Road traffic: Speed limits (e.g. of 120 km/h for Highways) Support of use of light run tyres and oils Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

13 Small combustion: PM abatement measure 1. BImSchV Reduced PM emissions from wood combustion through implementation of the new 1.BImSchV Emissionen in kt Reference scenario reduced emissions PM2,5 PM10 Emissions in kt PM2,5 PM Reduction potential in kt Reduction potential in % in relation to the reference scenario 5,9 31,0 5,9 31,0 Reduction potential in % in relation to all PM emissios in the reference scenario 1,5 8,7 0,9 5,1 Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

14 Maximum feasible abatement potential in comparison to the CLE-Scenario 2020 Sektor SO2 NOx NMVOC PPM10 PPM2,5 NH3 68 measures regarded in PAREST kt/jahr Combustion in energy and transformation industries Non-industrial combustion plants Production processes Solvent use and other product use 78 Road transport Other mobile sources and machinery Agriculture (vegetarian scenario) Summe Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

15 German official emission data 2005 Assessment Methodology Reference scenarios for 2010, 2015 and 2020 (Current legislation) Measures and bundles Germany GRIDDING Tool (1 x 1 ) High spatial resolved emission data set for Germany 1 x 1 GAINS NEC6_CP Scenario (2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020) for EU National projections from non-eu Countries High spatial resolved emission data set for Europe 5 x 5 Consistent European Emission data sets with an German specific data set CTMs (mainly REM-CalGrid, LOTOS-EUROS, LM-COSMOS, LM-Muscat) Assessement => Identification of cost-effective measure bundles Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

16 Air quality modelling, Nest 0 Nest 0 (N0): European Background Resolution circa 32x28 km2 Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

17 Air quality modelling, Nest 2 Nest 2 (N2): Germany Resolution circa 8 km x 7 km Nest 1 (N1): Germany Resolution circa 16 km x 14 km R.Stern, 27. Mai 2009 Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

18 Base calculation 2005, Parest-emissions Resolution 8 x 7 km 2 Gradient urban-rural for NO2 more distinctive as for PM10 concentrations Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

19 German official emission data 2005 Reference scenarios for 2010, 2015 and 2020 (Current legislation) Measures and bundles Germany Assessment Methodology GAINS NEC6_CP Scenario (2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020) for EU National projections from non-eu Countries GRIDDING Tool (1 x 1 ) High spatial resolved emission data set for Germany 1 x 1 High spatial resolved emission data set for Europe 5 x 5 Consistent European Emission data sets with an German specific data set CTMs (mainly REM-CalGrid, LOTOS-EUROS, LM-COSMOS, LM-Muscat) Assessement => Identification of cost-effective measure bundles Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

20 A sector overarching approach to assess costs of measures Aim: Assess Costs for all measures in a comparable manner independent from the sector Approach: i. Assess of costs by sector experts on base of sector specific methodologies ii. Documentation of the sector specific cost assessment methodologies iii. Definition of specific cost classes (very high =1, high =2, medium =3, low =4, very low=5) iv. Allocation of the quantified costs per sector and measure to the defined cost classes Results: An methodology to compare costs of measure bundles which include measures from different sectors on base of an sector independent manner. Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

21 Costs of non-technical measures Aim: Indication of costs of non-technical measures, especially utility loss Only take into account relevant costs (often i.e. time loss) Classification i. Amount: cost classes (very high =1 to very low=5) ii. Who bears the costs: econonomic agents (e.g. individual persons as citizens) - public authorities (e.g. state, cities) iii. What kind of costs: e.g. Low emission zones in cities: road signs; badges; controls; loss in value of old (diesel) cars; iv. Which kind of utility loss: e.g. time loss, loss of comfort e.g. hairstyle does not stay fixed if water-based hair sprays are used, Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

22 Assessment/analyzing of the calculated scenarios Calculation of the (changes in) air quality for scenarios (including measure based abatement scenario and sensitivity calculations) Analyzing of the calculated results Visualization of the concentrations Deriving of averaged indicators for a scenario o Averaging over the whole area of Germany o Stations: Averaging over the AEI-stations (Average Exposure Indicator) o Indicator weighted by the population density (aggregated in 4 classes) Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

23 Population density in Germany inhabitants/km2 Population density in 4 classes in Nest 2 Class 1: rural area, low density population density < 100 inhabitants/km2 Class 2: top class threshold define the 50%-threshold of population population density > 100, < 510 inhabitants/km2 Class 3: top class threshold define the lower limit of population density in metropolitan areas population density > 510, <945 inhabitants/km2 Class 4: Population density in metropolitan areas population density > 945 inhabitants/km2 Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

24 Conclusion An integrated approach on national level has been developed to assess reduction strategies for PM and NO2 for Germany. This methodology make it possible to assess the impact of suited reduction measure bundles to concentrations of PM 10, PM2.5 and NO2 on base of a few indicators. The development of an sector overarching measure cost assessment methodology is in progress. Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June

25 Thank you for your attention! Further questions to: Jochen Theloke And also have a look to: Volker Klotz 35. TFIAM Meeting Bilthoven 10. June