Rees [22 ] 1992, Wackernagel, ,Odum [20,21 ] ( shadow areas),j asson. Chinese Journal of Ecology 2005,24 (12) : ,

Transcription

1 Chinese Journal of Ecology 2005,24 (12) : ,2 1, ,2 ( 1, ; 2, ),,,,, ,, 20, , hm 2-1, 416,, ;,, ;,,,2015,,,,, X1 A (2005) Dynamic change and its prediction of ecological footprint in ecotone of Yunnan Province :A case study of Li2 jiang Naxi Autonomous County. J IAN G Yiyi 1,2,WAN G Yanglin 1,2,ZHAN G Yuan 1,2 ( 1 College of Environ2 mental Sciences, Peking U niversity, Beijing , China ; 2 Cent re f or Digital City and L andscape Ecolo2 gy, S henz hen Graduate School of Peking U niversity, S henz hen , China). Chinese Journal of Ecolo2 gy,2005,24 (12) : Prediction research is one of the important issues in ecological footprint ( EF) study,which could overcome the static limitation of EF calculation through simulating the changing trend of EF,and have practical meaning in predicting and making strategic decision on regional sustainable development. In this study,the concept of EF and its calculation method were introduced to quantitatively assess the sustainability of Lijiang Naxi Au2 tonomous County,northwest Yunnan Province,from 1949 to Based on the TM images in 1988,1996 and 2001,the calculation of the ecological capacity ( EC) showed that on the whole,the EF of this County had an ascending trend from 1949 to 2001,being increased from hm 2 capita - 1 in 1949 to hm 2 capita - 1 in 2001,and thus,the pressure on local ecological environment becoming more and more serious be2 cause of the rising consumption level. In test period,this County was under ecological surplus,and there was a harmonious relationship between social2economic development and environment. The prediction results indi2 cated that the EF would be higher than the EC in 2015,if the present development rate could be kept,which meant that Lijiang Naxi Autonomous County would use more biologically productive land within its borders, and highly depend upon external ecosystems to provide its needed food,material,energy resource and waste di2 gestion. Such a development state should be unsustainable. Key words ecological footprint,dynamic change,prediction,ecotone,lijiang Naxi Autonomous County ,Odum [20,21 ] ( shadow areas),j asson [18 ], Rees [22 ] 1992, Wackernagel, [23 25,27,28 ] 1996, [24 ] 3 ( G ) 3 3 : :

2 :,,Wacker2 nagel [29 ] 52,, [9,10 ] [26 ] [19 ] [12,13 ], [4,6 ], [7 ] [30 ] [5 ] [2 ], [11 ] [16 ] [14,15 ],,,,,,,,, (),,, [1 ],, 30,, [3 ],,,,,,,,,,, 2 211, E, N,112 km,151 km, km 2,,,,,,, ,,, 1018 %2001, ,67170 %, %, , TM 1993 ( 1 : ) 1995 (1 :25 000) Wackernagel,,, [27 ] :,,, [24 ] [27 ],6 : (Arable land ( P 1 ) ), ; ( Pasture ( P 2 ) ), ; ( Water space ( P 3 ) ),; ( Forest ( P 4 ) ),; ( Fossil energy land ( P 5 ) ), ; (Built2up area ( P 6 ) ),,,,,: 1419

3 [17 ] EF = Nef = N ( r ic i / p i ), ( i = 1,, n), i ; EF ; N ; ef ; r i ; c i i ; p i i [9 ] : EC = Nec = N ( r ja j / y j ), ( j = 1,,6), j ; EC ; N ; ec ; r j ; a j j ; y j j :, ( Ecological deficit),,, ;, ( Ecological surplus),,, 21313,,,,,, [8 ] ;,,,,,,,,, Y,X 6, , 1993 [26,27 ] Tab. 1 Ecological footprint ledger of biotic resources in Lijiang,2001 (kg hm - 2 ) ( 10 3 kg) (hm 2 ) Triticum aestivum 2,440 40, , V icia f aba Oryza sativa Zea mays Glycine soja Phaseolus vulgaris Ipomaea batatas Nicotiana tabacum a) :a) 1988, [24,26,27 ], ,,

4 : 1421 [2,24 ], Tab. 2 Ecological footprint ledger of energy in Lijiang,2001 ( GJ hm - 2 ) ( GJ kg - 1 ) ( 10 4 kg) (hm 2 ) a) :a) KWH Tab. 3 Ecological footprint ledger of the chemical products in Li2 jiang,2001 ( GJ hm - 2 ) ( GJ kg - 1 ) ( 10 4 kg) (hm 2 ) , [27 ] : C i = P i + I i - E i, ( i = 1,, n), i, C i i ; P i i ; I i E i i 312 1, , hm hm 2-1,416,, Fig. 1 Ecological footprint per capita in Lijiang, : ; ,,,, 70,, hm hm 2-1, ,, hm hm 2-1,, 2, Fig. 2 Ecological footprint components of Lijiang,

5 ,,, 80, ;1957,, 1970,,;, 90, 90,;, hm 2-1, Tab. 4 Ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Lijiang in 2001 [13 ] (hm 2-1 ) (hm 2-1 ) ,,, 2001, hm 2,65171 hm 2, hm 2, hm 2, hm 2 4,12 %, hm 2, hm hm 2 (hm 2-1 ) [13 ] [28 ] (hm 2-1 ) P P P P P P :a) 12 % , , ,,,,,,, a),, 314, , ,, : y = x x x , y ( hm 2-1 ), 3 Fig. 3 Change of ecological remainder in Lijiang County (), x 2 (t), x 3 ( ) ( ), ( 5)

6 : ( hm 2-1 ) Tab. 5 Ecological footprint prediction of Lijiang County Tab. 6 Comparison of ecological footprint surveying and estimating values in Lijiang County (hm 2-1 ) ( %) ,2015,,,;,,, %, %, % ,,,(1 - ( W - W ) / W ) 80 %,,( 6) 4,,,,,,, ,:,, ;,,,,; 2001,, 2015,, 1995, 70 ;2001,290

7 % %,, [16 ],,??,,, U,,, [ 1 ],, [J ].,23 (5) :1 6. [ 2 ], [J ]., 21 (3) : [3 ] [J ].,27 (4) : [ 4 ], [J ].,24 (4) : [ 5 ],, [J ].,3 :3 5. [ 6 ],,, [J ].,23 (2) : [ 7 ],, [J ].,23 (6) : [ 8 ] [ M ]. :. [ 9 ],,, [J ].,39 (3) : [ 10 ],,, [J ].,14 (2) : [ 11 ] Alden DM,Proops JL R, Gay PW Industrial hemp s dou2 ble dividend :A study for the USA [J ]. Ecol. Econ.,25 : [ 12 ] Bicknell KB,Ball RJ, Cullen R, et al New methodology for the ecological footprint with an application to the New Zealand economy[j ]. Ecol. Econ.,27 : [ 13 ] Fricker A The ecological footprint of New Zealand as a step towards sustainability[j ]. Fut ures,30 (6) : [14 ] Gerbens2Leenes PW, Nonhebel S Consumption patterns and their effects on land required for food[j ]. Ecol. Econ.,42 : [ 15 ] Gerbens2Leenes PW,Nonhebel S,Ivens WPMF A method to determine land requirements relating to food consumption pat2 terns[j ]. A gric. Ecosyst. Environ.,90 : [16 ] Gossling S, Hansson CB, Horstmeier O, et al Ecological footprint analysis as a tool to assess tourism sustainability [ J ]. Ecol. Econ.,43 : [ 17 ] Hardi P,Barg S,Hodge T, et al Measuring sustainable de2 velopment : Review of current practice [ A ]. Occasional Paper Number 17[ C]. Ottawa Ontario : Industry Canada. [18 ] Jasson AM, Zucchetto J Energy,economic and ecological relationships for Gotland,Sweden :A regional system study[ A ]. Swedish Natural Science Research Council : Ecological Bulletins 28[ C]. Stockholu :Swedish Natural Science Research Council. [ 19 ] Lenzen M,Murray SA A modified ecological footprint method and its application to Australia[J ]. Ecol. Econ.,37 : [20 ] Odum EP Ecology : The Link Between the Natural and Social Sciences[ M ]. New York : Holt2Saunders. [ 21 ] Odum EP Ecology and Our Endangered Life2support sys2 tem[ M ]. Sunderland :Sinauer Associates. [22 ] Rees WE Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity : What urban economics leaves out [J ]. Environ. U rban2 iz.,4 (2) : [ 23 ] Rees WE, Wackernagel M Monetary analysis : Turning a blind eye on sustainability[j ]. Ecol. Econ.,29 : [ 24 ] Rees WE, Wackernagel M Our Ecological Footprint : Re2 ducing Human Impact on the Earth [ M ]. Gabriola Island,BC : New Society Publishers. [25 ] Rees WE, Wackernagel M Urban ecological footprints : Why cites cannot be sustainable and why they are a key to sus2 tainability[j ]. Environ. I m pact Assess. Rev.,16 : [ 26 ] Wackernagel M,Lewan L,Borgstrgm2Hansson C Evaluat2 ing the use of natural capital with the ecological footprint :Appli2 cations in Sweden and sub2regions[j ]. A mbio,28 : [27 ] Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P, et al National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept [J ]. Ecol. Econ.,29 : [ 28 ] Wackernagel M,Rees WE Perceptual and structural barri2 ers to investing in natural capital : Economics from an ecological footprint perspective[j ]. Ecol. Econ.,20 :3 24. [29 ] Wackernagel M,Silverstein J Big things first focusing on the scale imperative with the ecological footprint [ J ]. Ecol. E2 con.,32 : [30 ] Warren2Rhodes K, Koenig A Ecosystem appropriation by Hong Kong and its implications for sustainable development [J ]. Ecol. Econ.,39 : ,,1978, E2mail edu. cn