, Px. , Yx. W. E. Ree M. Wackernagel , P , ) n P x + I x - E x. EF r = EC x = A x Y x E x. ECp = EC PΠEF ECp

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2005 15 5 CHINA POPULATION, RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT Vol. 15 No. 5 2005 3 (, 100101),,,, ;, ;, ;,, ;,,, ; ; ; F062.

1 CHINA POPULATION, RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT Vol. 15 No (, ),,,, ;, ;, ;,, ;,,, ; ; ; F A ( 2005) , [2,3],, EF r = n P x + I x - E x i = 1 Y, x, EFr x, Px [1],, Ix, Ex,, Yx,,, EC x = A x Y x E x EC x x, A x,, Y x, E x 1 W. E. Ree M. Wackernagel 20 90,,, ECp = ECPΠEF ECp, P ,,, 3 93

2 2005 5, 2000 ED = EF - EC ED, EF, EC 10 8, ,, ;, ;,, [47, ] 2 (2000 ) Tab. 2 Population carry capacity of ecosystem in China (2000),, hm 2 10, 8 hm hm hm , , , , 23 hm 2 cap ; , hm 2 cap , ;,,, hm 2 cap hm 2, hm 2 cap - 1 ;,,,,, 1980, 19, ( ), ( ),,12 ( ) 54 % ; (,46 %, ), ( ) ( 1) 1 ( ), Tab. 1 The number of regions with ecological deficit in, different year, ,, , ( 2), , 2,,,,,, 94

3 , 3, Tab. 3 The carrying capacity of water resources in China, (10 8 ) [811], ( %) (10 8 ) ( %) , (10 8 ) , ( %) ;, (10 8 m 3 ) ( %) ; , (1) 25, 10 8, 20 15, , 20,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (2) , ,,,,, 17 %20 %,,, (3) m 3, m 3, m 3, 3,,,, 31,18,,, t, 200 % ( 3) ( 4), 4, Tab. 4 The carry capacity of land resources in China ( 10 8 t) ( 10 8 kg) ( 10 8 ),, , kg 40 %,, 95

4 2005 5, ,, [12],,,,,, 5,,,,2010,, 2t ; ,, kg kg, , , ; 5. 8 %,, ;,, ,, ( t, ),, kg, kg kg, 50, 20, ,2030, , [13], 20,,,, 20,,,,,,,,, 5 ( 10 8 kg ), Tab. 5 The integrated carry capacity of agricultural resources, in China ( unit 10 8 kg) ;, ,, ,,,2001. ;, 4,,, 5,,, [14,15], ;,, ; 96

5 , [5 ],,. ; [J ].,2001,23 (6) [Lu Chunxia, Xie Gaodi,Cheng Shengkui et al. Assessment of Ecological Occupancy of Nat2, ural AssetsUtilization in the Qinghai - Tibet plateau [J ]. Resources, Sciences, 2001,23(6) ], [6 ],,. [J ],,,2001,23(6) [ Xie Gaodi, Lu Chunxia, Cheng Shengkui. Assessment of Ecological Occupancy in China [J ]. Resources Sciences, 2001,23 (6) ] [7 ],. [J ].,2000,15 (4) [Li Lifeng, Cheng Shengkui., Ecological Occupancy a New Indicator Assessing Sustainable Develop2 ment[j ]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2000,15(4) ] [8 ]. [M].,, [ Shi Yafeng. Carrying Capacity and Ra2 tional Use of Water Resources in Urumchi River Base [M]. Beijing Sci2,, ence Press, 1992, ] ; [9 ]. [J ]. ; ;,2002,17 (3) [ Xia Jun. Measurement of Water ; Resource Safety Challenges in Water Carrying Capacity[J ]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2002,17(3) ] [10 ]. [J ].,,2002,21 (2) [ Zhu Yizhong. Theory and Technique for, Water Carrying Capacity [J ]. Progress on Geographic Sciences, 2002,21 (2) ], [11 ],,.,, [J ].,2004,19 (2) [ Wang Hao, Qin Dayong,, Wang Jianhua et al. Water Carrying Capacity in Arid Inland of Northwest China [J ]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2004,19 (2) ] ( ) [12 ]. [ M]. (References), [ Chen Baiming. Integrated Productivity [1 ] 21. of Agro2resources and Population Carrying Capacity in China [ M]. Bei2 [M]. jing Meteorological Press, ], [ Research Group for Sustainable Develop2 [13 ]. [ M]. ment Strategies. Administrative Center for China s Agenda 21. Base for, [ Chen Baiming. Land Productivi2 Development Assessment of Resources and Ecological Bases for Chi2 ty and Population Carrying Capacity in China [ M]. Beijing Press of na s Sustainable Development [ M]. Beijing Social Science Literature Renmin University, ] Press, ] [14 ],,. [2 ] Wackernagel, M., Ree, W. E. Perceptual and Structural Barriers to [J ]., 1999,13 (3) 17. [ Xie Gaodi, Cheng Investing in Natural Capital Economics From an Ecological Footprint Per2 Shengkui, Ding Xianzhong. Dynamics of Global Land Cover under the spective [J ]. Ecological Economics, 1997, 20 (1) 324. Stress of Population Growth [J ]. Journal of Natural Resources, 1999,13 [3 ] Wackernagel, M., Lewan, L., and Hansson, C. B. Evaluating the (3) 17. ] Use of Natural Capital with the Ecological Footprint Application in Sweden [15 ],. and Subregions [J ]. AMBIO, 1999, 28 (7) [J ].,2002,56 (3) [ Xie Gaodi, [4 ],,. [J ]. Cheng Shengkui. Consumption of Natural Resources and Change Trend of,2001,23(6) [ Su Yun, Cheng Shengkui,Xie Gao2 Resources Safety in China [J ]. Chinese Population, Resources and Envir2 di. Ecological Occupancy of Living Consumption of Citizens in the Big onment, 2002,12(3) ] Cities [J ]. Resources Sciences, 2001,23(6) ] 97

6 Carrying Capacity of Natural Resources in China XIE Gao2di ZHOU Hai2lin LU Chun2xia ZHEN Lin ( Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing ,China) Abstract A close relation exists between development and resource - environment. This relation cannot be easily changed through technical innovation as commonly understood by knowledge economics currently. Sustainable development cannot avoid consumption of natural resources, and dependency on impacts of development on resource - environment. It is a dynamic process within the carrying capacity of the resource2en2 vironment. The paper analyzes the carrying capacity of resource2environment in China, and makes the following conclusions eco2space tends to be insufficient, and ecological deficit appears nationwide. However, ecological carrying capacity excluding non2renewable resources shows great room for development ; at the national level,the current population is within the carrying capacity of water resources, and overloading of water carrying capacity has been observed in some regions of the country ; land carrying capacity of China remains slightly surplus, and natural resources basis could therefore ensure a long term development of the country ; structural conflicts of energy - based mineral resources are significant, petroleum resource tends to be insufficient in a long run, and shows an insufficient carrying capacity ; in a general term, population and economic development of China is within the carrying capacity of natural resources, but overloading of resources also exists in some areas and for certain natural resources. The paper therefore concludes by saying that an objective assessment of the overall situation of natural resources in China is required, i. e., the scale of population and economic growth in China has not yet exceeded the carrying capacity of natural resources. Key words ecological carrying capacity ; water carrying capacity ; land carrying capacity ; energy carrying capacity 3 1,, 25 %, 2001, 3 % % 30,, 25,, 50,, 45,,,, 10 %, 40 %,,, %,, 44, 1750,,,, 50 98

STRATEGIES OF AGRICUL TURE AND ANIMAL HUSBAND RY DEVELOPMENT IN TIBET AUTONOMOUS REGION

24 5 2002 9 RESOURCES SCIENCE Vol. 24 No. 5 Sep. 2002 ( 100101) : 50a : ; ; ; : ; ; ; :S181 ;F307. 3(244) (275) :A :1007-7588(2002) 05-0001 - 07 STRATEGIES OF AGRICUL TURE AND ANIMAL HUSBAND RY DEVELOPMENT