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1 econstor Make Your Publcatons Vsble. A Servce of Wrtschaft Centre zbwlebnz-informatonszentrum Economcs Rchter, Felx; Steenbeck, Malte; Wlhelm, Markus Workng Paper Nuclear accdents and polcy: Notes on publc percepton SOEPpapers on Multdscplnary Panel Data Research, No. 590 Provded n Cooperaton wth: German Insttute for Economc Research (DIW Berln) Suggested Ctaton: Rchter, Felx; Steenbeck, Malte; Wlhelm, Markus (2013) : Nuclear accdents and polcy: Notes on publc percepton, SOEPpapers on Multdscplnary Panel Data Research, No. 590 Ths Verson s avalable at: Standard-Nutzungsbedngungen: De Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu egenen wssenschaftlchen Zwecken und zum Prvatgebrauch gespechert und kopert werden. Se dürfen de Dokumente ncht für öffentlche oder kommerzelle Zwecke vervelfältgen, öffentlch ausstellen, öffentlch zugänglch machen, vertreben oder anderwetg nutzen. Sofern de Verfasser de Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lzenzen (nsbesondere CC-Lzenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abwechend von desen Nutzungsbedngungen de n der dort genannten Lzenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents n EconStor may be saved and coped for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for publc or commercal purposes, to exhbt the documents publcly, to make them publcly avalable on the nternet, or to dstrbute or otherwse use the documents n publc. If the documents have been made avalable under an Open Content Lcence (especally Creatve Commons Lcences), you may exercse further usage rghts as specfed n the ndcated lcence.

2 SOEPpapers on Multdscplnary Panel Data Research SOEP The German Soco-Economc Panel Study at DIW Berln Nuclear Accdents and Polcy: Notes on Publc Percepton Felx Rchter, Malte Steenbeck, Markus Wlhelm

3 SOEPpapers on Multdscplnary Panel Data Research at DIW Berln Ths seres presents research fndngs based ether drectly on data from the German Soco- Economc Panel Study (SOEP) or usng SOEP data as part of an nternatonally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP s a truly multdscplnary household panel study coverng a wde range of socal and behavoral scences: economcs, socology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrcs and appled statstcs, educatonal scence, poltcal scence, publc health, behavoral genetcs, demography, geography, and sport scence. The decson to publsh a submsson n SOEPpapers s made by a board of edtors chosen by the DIW Berln to represent the wde range of dscplnes covered by SOEP. There s no external referee process and papers are ether accepted or rejected wthout revson. Papers appear n ths seres as works n progress and may also appear elsewhere. They often represent prelmnary studes and are crculated to encourage dscusson. Ctaton of such a paper should account for ts provsonal character. A revsed verson may be requested from the author drectly. Any opnons expressed n ths seres are those of the author(s) and not those of DIW Berln. Research dssemnated by DIW Berln may nclude vews on publc polcy ssues, but the nsttute tself takes no nsttutonal polcy postons. The SOEPpapers are avalable at Edtors: Jürgen Schupp (Socology) Gert G. Wagner (Socal Scences, Vce Dean DIW Graduate Center) Conchta D Ambroso (Publc Economcs) Dens Gerstorf (Psychology, DIW Research Drector) Elke Holst (Gender Studes, DIW Research Drector) Frauke Kreuter (Survey Methodology, DIW Research Professor) Martn Kroh (Poltcal Scence and Survey Methodology) Freder R. Lang (Psychology, DIW Research Professor) Hennng Lohmann (Socology, DIW Research Professor) Jörg-Peter Schräpler (Survey Methodology, DIW Research Professor) Thomas Sedler (Emprcal Economcs) C. Katharna Speß (Emprcal Economcs and Educatonal Scence) ISSN: (onlne) German Soco-Economc Panel Study (SOEP) DIW Berln Mohrenstrasse Berln, Germany Contact: Uta Rahmann soeppapers@dw.de

4 Nuclear Accdents and Polcy: Notes on Publc Percepton Felx Rchter, Malte Steenbeck, and Markus Wlhelm Unversty of Hamburg, Char for Economc Polcy September 2013 Abstract Major nuclear accdents as recently n Fukushma set nuclear power plant securty at the top of the publc agenda. Usng data of the German Soco-Economc Panel we analyze the effects of the Fukushma accdent and a subsequent government decson on nuclear power phase-out on several measures of subjectve percepton n Germany. In the lght of current poltcal debates about the strategc orentaton of ths energy turnaround, such an analyss s of partcular nterest snce non-pecunary gans n measures of subjectve percepton mght provde further aspects to be taken nto consderaton when evaluatng the economc costs of the polcy. We fnd that the Fukushma accdent ncreases the probablty to report greater worres about the envronment. Furthermore, we fnd evdence for a decrease n the probablty to be very worred about the securty of nuclear power plants as well as for an ncrease n reported levels of subjectve well-beng followng the government's resoluton on nuclear phase-out. Fnally we fnd that the probabltes of reportng very hgh concerns are related to the dstance between the respondents' place of resdence and the nearest nuclear power staton. JEL classfcaton: I3, N7, Q4, R1 Keywords: Fukushma, nuclear accdent, nuclear energy, nuclear phase-out, envronment, subjectve percepton E-mal addresses: felx.rchter@wso.un-hamburg.de, malte.steenbeck@wso.un-hamburg.de, markus.wlhelm@wso.un-hamburg.de. 1

5 1. Introducton Access to reasonably prced energy s often regarded as a major determnant for the compettveness of an economy. Wth many fossl resources such as coal beng crtczed n terms of ther sustanablty and renewable energy sources stll beng expensve and not yet fully establshed, many countres worldwde regard nuclear energy as a key technology n the struggle for affordable electrcty. However, major nuclear accdents as recently n Fukushma set nuclear power plant securty on top of the publc agenda and ncrease pressure on polcy makers to provde adequate reactons. In the case of Germany, the orgns of these dscussons and the formaton of an ant-nuclear movement can be traced back to the 1970s. Followng the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear dsaster wth large areas of Germany beng affected by radoactve fallout, publc opnon ncreasngly turned aganst ths source of energy generaton. A frst act on nuclear phase-out passed by the Socal Democratc/Green party coalton n 2002 was dsmssed by the Chrstan Democratc/Lberal coalton n September However, ncreasng opposton towards nuclear energy after the Fukushma catastrophe n March 2011 resulted n a change n polcy. On June 6th 2011, the Chrstan Democratc/Lberal German government decded on a new accelerated phase-out wth the fnal shutdown of eght power plants n August 2011 and a complete abandonng of nuclear energy by In the lght of substantal publc opposton aganst the use of nuclear energy the queston arses as to what extend far-reachng events such as nuclear accdents or changes n nuclear polcy are reflected n subjectve assessment. Regardng ongong publc dscussons n Germany, such an analyss s of partcular nterest snce nonmonetary gans n measures of subjectve percepton mght provde further aspects to be taken nto consderaton when evaluatng the economc costs of the energy turnaround. Usng data of the German Soco- Economc Panel (SOEP) for the year 2011, we nvestgate the mpact of the Fukushma accdent and the subsequent decson on nuclear phase-out on reported subjectve lfe satsfacton and concerns about the envronment. Takng advantage of a set of new varables ncluded n the SOEP drectly after the Fukushma accdent, we further analyze the effects of the phase-out on fears about nuclear power plant securty as well as on the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy. In order to control for personal nvolvement, we complement our analyss by addtonal models that account for the dstance from the respondents place of resdence to the nearest actve nuclear power plant. The remander of the artcle s organzed as follows: Secton 2 looks nto the relevant lterature followed by a presentaton of the data source and emprcal strategy n Secton 3. 2

6 Secton 4 dscusses the results of our baselne models whereas Secton 5 presents the fndngs of the extended models ncludng regonal characterstcs. The paper closes wth a concluson. 2. Lterature There s a growng feld of economc lterature lookng nto potental effects of nternatonal catastrophes such as the attacks of 9/11 n the Unted States, Hurrcane Katrna, the earthquake 2005 n Pakstan, and the nuclear accdents n Chernobyl or n Fukushma on measures of subjectve percepton. Most of the lterature focuses on subjectve lfe satsfacton but there are also a number of studes that focus on subjectve fears. Berger (2010) analyzes effects of the 1986 Chernobyl accdent on happness and envronmental concerns n Germany. Whle her results support the thess that envronmental concerns are affected by nuclear accdents, no such evdence s found concernng an mpact on reported happness. Danzer & Danzer (2011) test the long run nfluence of the Chernobyl accdent on subjectve lfe satsfacton n the Ukrane. As expected they fnd a negatve mpact on happness for ndvduals exposed to the catastrophe. Remennck (2002) analyzes the health of Chernobyl survvors that mmgrated nto Israel whereas Bromet et al. (2000) focus on the happness of local chldren that were nfants or unborn at the tme of the accdent. Further economc or socoeconomc lterature on the relatonshps between subjectve lfe satsfacton respectvely concerns about the envronment and nuclear accdents s on the rse. As the events n Fukushma happened only recently, exstng works manly focus on Chernobyl. Exceptons are Hommerch (2012), who nvestgates the effects of the Fukushma accdent on trust and happness n two Japanese regons and Rehdanz et al. (2013) who use Japanese panel data n combnaton wth regonal nformaton about the respondents place of resdence to analyze the effects of the Fukushma nuclear catastrophe on ndvdual well-beng n Japan. Usng a dfference-n-dfference approach they fnd that ndvdual well-beng declned after the catastrophe wth ncreasng proxmty to the ste of the accdent. Usng US data, Greenberg (2009) examnes dfferences between people who lve near nuclear facltes and a control group from other regons. The fndngs suggest that people who lve near reactors have greater concerns about nuclear ssues than the control group. Thematcally related, Luechnger & Raschky (2009) analyze the effect of natural dsasters on lfe satsfacton, but focus on flood catastrophes. Ther fndngs pont out that flood 3

7 catastrophes are negatvely related wth lfe satsfacton. Caroll et al. (2009) estmate the effects of droughts on happness n Australa n order to quantfy arsng costs. Hnman et al. (1993) and Cha (2013) assemble a lst of envronmental rsks. By means of nternatonal data they fnd out that rsks about nuclear ssues such as nuclear accdents are top ranked. The studes of Kmball et al. (2006) and Metcalfe et al. (2011) nvestgate the mpact of catastrophes on happness n the country of the accdent and n other countres. Kmball et al. show amongst others that the earthquake n Pakstan n the year 2005 has an mpact on lfe satsfacton n Amerca. Metcalfe et al. provde evdence that the terror attacks of 9/11 have a sgnfcant mpact on people s lfe satsfacton n the UK. The lterature on the effects of general socoeconomc determnants of happness s broader, ncludng Easterln (1995) on ncome, Clark & Oswald (1994) on unemployment status, or Frjters & Beatton (2012) on age as promnent representatves. Good surveys are provded by Dener et al. (1999) and Stutzer & Frey (2010), among others. For lterature on socoeconomc determnants of envronmental concern see Berger (2010) and Shen & Sajo (2007). 3. Data & Emprcal Strategy We model the effects of the Fukushma nuclear accdent and the subsequent change n nuclear polcy on lfe satsfacton, on concerns about the envronment as well as on concerns about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy and on fears about the safety of nuclear power plants. Our workng hypothess s that the accdent has a sgnfcant mpact on envronmental concerns,.e. leads to an ncrease n fears. In contrast, the nuclear phase-out could ncrease subjectve lfe satsfacton and worres about relable energy supply but lead to a decrease n fears concernng nuclear power plant securty. We use data from the SOEP v28-edton (SOEP, 2012), a populaton-representatve panel survey conducted n Germany (Wagner et al., 2007). Our constructed data set comprses the year To operatonalze subjectve percepton we use four dfferent sngle-tem measurements ncluded n the SOEP: Worres about envronmental protecton, about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy and about the securty of nuclear power plants are captured on an ordnal three category scale, orgnally coded very worred, 4

8 slghtly worred and not worred. For ease of nterpretaton, all varables are mrrored. 1 The more comprehensve queston on lfe satsfacton n general s answered on an 11-pont scale rangng from completely dssatsfed to completely satsfed. 2 Whle the varables concernng envronmental protecton and lfe satsfacton n general are avalable for all waves of the panel, both the queston on worres about the relablty of energy supply and the queston on securty of nuclear power plants have been ncluded n the SOEP surveys snce Aprl The man ndependent varables consst of dummy structures descrbng the varous tme perods of nterest. Addtonally we control for a set of common socoeconomc varables ncludng age, age squared, health, gender, log of monthly household ncome, martal status, chldren n household, educatonal level, and labor market status n addton to regonal dummes. The emprcal strategy conssts of the followng steps: For the models on general lfe satsfacton and envronmental concerns, we dvde the observaton perod nto three subperods. The questonnares completed before the Fukushma accdent are consdered as control group, and the effect perods nclude (1) the weeks after the Fukushma catastrophe untl the day before the decson on nuclear phase-out (03/11/ /05/2011) and (2) the months after the government resoluton (06/06/ /30/2011). Regardng the questons on concerns about the relablty of energy supply and about nuclear power-staton safety we use a modfed layout n the correspondng models, where the perod from Aprl 1st untl June 5th s used as reference perod. The effect perod between June 6th and September 30th should thus reflect the effects of the government resoluton on nuclear phase-out. Fnally one mght argue that the sze of potental effects depend on regonal dfferences, especally the dstance to the nearest nuclear power plant. To account for ths possblty, we extend the precedng analyss by ncludng a dstance measure and the nteracton between our effect varables and the dstance ndcator. In the SOEP, access to the respondents geographcal locaton s lmted for prvacy protecton. However, the data at hand allows regonal dentfcaton on a Raumordnungsregon (ROR) level plannng unts that dvde 1 The exact passages n the questonnare are: What s your atttude towards the followng areas are you concerned about them (Envronmental Protecton; Securty of Nuclear Power Plants; Relablty of Energy Supply Wthout the Use of Nuclear Energy)? Possble answers are Very worred, Slghtly worred and Not worred. 2 The exact passages n the questonnare are: In concluson, we would lke to ask you about your satsfacton wth your lfe n general. Please answer accordng to followng scale: 0 means completely dssatsfed, 10 means completely satsfed. How satsfed are you wth your lfe, all thngs consdered? 5

9 Germany nto 96 regons of an average sze of 3,720 square klometres (1,436 square mles) and an average populaton of 852,539. Hence, for each ROR z wth a populaton of POP z, we calculate a populaton-weghted average dstance to the nearest actve nuclear power staton: where POP s the populaton n communty of ROR z wth a dstance of DIST to the nearest actve power staton. The populaton data s obtaned from the Statstsches Bundesamt (2012). We also take nto account actve nuclear power plants n drectly neghbourng countres wthn a 100-km radus around Germany. The followng sectons present our emprcal results. 4. Baselne Models Table 1 shows the estmates for the effects on reported subjectve lfe satsfacton. As outlned n the prevous secton, we compare both the perod drectly after the Fukushma accdent and the months followng the government decson on nuclear phase-out to the weeks before the catastrophe of March In detal, we dvde our 2011 sample perod n three sub-perods: The perod from the begnnng of February untl before Fukushma, the perod drectly after the accdent and the perod after the government s resoluton on the nuclear phase-out. In Table 1 we present the man results for our estmates on lfe satsfacton usng the descrbed dummy structure. Berger (2010) fnds lttle evdence on the exstence of an effect of the Chernobyl nuclear dsaster on subjectve lfe satsfacton. However, snce our models nclude both, the Fukushma accdent as well as the subsequent decson on a nuclear phaseout, we examne whether reported levels of happness show senstvty to any of the two events. As happness s reported on an 11-pont ordnal scale t s relatvely save to regard the varable as contnuous. Followng Ferrer--Carbonell & Frjters (2004) we hence estmate the model equatons usng ordnary least squares (column 1) and report ordered logt parameters as robustness check (column 2). As n all models of the study we nclude a common and approprate set of socoeconomc control varables. Detaled nformaton on the varables s ncluded n the notes of each table. The estmated parameters of the control varables n all models show the expected sgns and magntudes and are not reported. The full estmates are avalable upon request. 6

10 Table 1 Fukushma accdent and nuclear power phase-out n Germany: Models on lfe satsfacton Lfe satsfacton OLS Ordered logt Before Fukushma accdent: 02/01/ /10/2011 (Ref.) (Ref.) Fukushma accdent: /11/ /05/2011 (0.040) (0.049) Nuclear power phase-out: 0.184*** 0.261*** 06/06/ /30/2011 (0.052) (0.065) Observatons (Pseudo) R Notes: OLS and ordered logt estmates; dependent varable: General lfe satsfacton (coded: 0 10); robust standard errors n brackets; coeffcents of the models, wth error probablty n parentheses: ***p< **p< *p<0.1; cross secton weghts for all waves; controlled for other exogenous varables: Health, gender, age, age (squared), log household ncome, chld n household, martal status, employment status, educaton, worres about own economc stuaton and overall economc development, state dummes and regonal dummy (East). Columns 1 and 2 n Table 1 show no evdence for an nfluence of the Fukushma nuclear dsaster on subjectve lfe satsfacton n Germany. Both estmates OLS and ordered logt show nsgnfcant parameters. Smlar to the fndngs of Berger (2010) we are able to confrm that major nuclear accdents appear to have no drect nfluence on subjectve lfe satsfacton n Germany. However, we fnd clear evdence for an ncrease n reported levels of happness by scale ponts (OLS estmate column 1) for the tme after the decson on the nuclear phase-out n Germany. Ths sharp ncrease s also confrmed by the correspondng ordered logt parameters reported n column 2 that equal the OLS coeffcents n drecton and sgnfcance. In summary, the Japanese nuclear dsaster shows no drect nfluence concernng lfe satsfacton n Germany, but the subsequent German nuclear phase-out decson results n postve, sgnfcant and robust effects on lfe satsfacton n Germany. Hence one can nterpret the ncrease n lfe satsfacton after the phase-out decson as nonmonetary gans for the German publc. 7

11 Table 2 Fukushma accdent and nuclear power phase-out n Germany: Model on worres about the envronmental protecton Worres about envronmental protecton Pr(y not worred) x j Pr(y slghtly worred) x j Pr(y very worred) Before Fukushma accdent: 02/01/ /10/2011 (Ref.) (Ref.) (Ref.) Fukushma accdent: *** *** 0.050*** 03/11/ /05/2011 (0.005) (0.006) (0.011) Nuclear power phase-out: /06/ /30/2011 (0.006) (0.007) (0.012) Observatons Pseudo R Notes: Ordered logt estmates; dependent varable: Worres about envronmental protecton (coded 1 3); margnal effects; robust standard errors n brackets; coeffcents of the models, wth error probabltes n parentheses: ***p< **p< *p<0.1; cross-secton weghts; other exogenous varables: Gender, age, age (squared), log household ncome, chld n household, martal status, employment status, educaton, state dummes and regonal dummy (east). x j Table 2 shows the man results for the specfcaton n whch we assess the effects on reported worres about the envronment. All reported parameters are margnal effects calculated from pooled cross-secton ordered logt regressons. For clarty, we report the margnal effects for all outcomes as not worred, slghtly worred and very worred. It s expected that any changes n fears related to the nuclear accdent would predomnantly appear n the category very worred. Whereas the parameters for the months after the resoluton on nuclear phaseout are of no sgnfcance, hghly sgnfcant effects on reported worres about the envronment can be observed for the weeks mmedately after the Fukushma catastrophe. In partcular, the probablty of reportng very hgh concerns about envronmental protecton ncreased by up to 5 percentage ponts compared to the reference perod. A closer nspecton of the estmated probabltes for the other two outcomes further reveals that ths ncrease n very hgh fears does not just rely on answers by respondents wth some already-exstng ecologcal senstvty (-2.7 percentage ponts) but also seems to be a result of a changed percepton among people who prevously reported no worres about envronmental protecton (-2.3 percentage ponts). We note that the ecologcal awareness among the German publc s senstve about nternatonal envronmental dsasters such as the one n Fukushma, potentally leadng to non-pecunary costs for the German publc (c.f. Berger, 2010). As a fnal step n ths secton we alter our model to nclude two new varables measurng the worres about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy and the worres about the securty of nuclear power plants, recently ncluded n the SOEP questonnare drectly after the Fukushma events. Hence, we only observe the perod from 8

12 Aprl 2011 untl the end of As we cannot account for the Fukushma accdent, we only consder the two categores before the nuclear phase-out resoluton on 06/06/2011, and after the announcement. Table 3 Nuclear power phase-out n Germany: Models on worres regardng the use of nuclear energy Pr(y not worred) x j Pr(y slghtly worred) Worres about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy x j Pr( y very worred) Fukushma accdent: 04/01/ /05/2011 (Ref.) (Ref.) (Ref.) Nuclear power phase-out: /06/ /30/2011 (0.017) (0.008) (0.008) Observatons 4039 Pseudo R Worres about the securty of nuclear power plants Fukushma accdent: 04/01/ /05/2011 (Ref.) (Ref.) (Ref.) Nuclear power phase-out: 0.073*** 0.018*** *** 06/06/ /30/2011 (0.012) (0.004) (0.015) Observatons 4048 Pseudo R Notes: Ordered logt estmates; dependent varable: Worres about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy (coded 1 3), worres about the securty of nuclear power plants (coded 1 3); margnal effects; robust standard errors n brackets; coeffcents of the models, wth error probabltes n parentheses: ***p< **p< *p<0.1; cross secton weghts; other exogenous varables: Gender, age, age (squared), log household ncome, chld n household, martal status, employment status, educaton and state dummes. x j The top half of Table 3 shows the results of the estmaton on worres about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy. The bottom half of Table 3 presents the estmates on concerns about the safety of nuclear power statons. In both parts a pooled crosssecton ordered logt model approach s used. We also report the margnal effects for all three possble outcomes of the dependent varable. The results n the bottom half of Table 3 resemble our earler fndngs on lfe satsfacton wth the central result beng the parameter n the last column: Beng ntervewed after the government s resoluton on nuclear phase-out reduces the probablty to be very worred about the securty of nuclear power plants by 9.1 percentage ponts. Accordngly, beng ntervewed after the announcement ncreases the probablty of reportng no worres or only slght concerns by 7.3, respectve 1.8 percentage ponts. All effects are hghly sgnfcant. Concernng reported worres about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear 9

13 energy, no sgnfcant effects are detected for the perod after the actual phase-out decson (c.f. top half of Table 3). We conclude that the phase-out decson reduces the probablty to report greater worres about nuclear power plant securty. Interestngly, the German publc does not seem to relate the decson to the expected relablty of energy supply. The results are n lne wth our prevous fndngs, ndcatng nonmonetary gans generated by the phaseout decson. 5. Regonal Models As shown n the precedng analyses, both the Fukushma accdent and the announcement of nuclear phase-out appear to have a sgnfcant nfluence on subjectve percepton n the German publc. One mght argue, however, that the effects are predomnantly determned by regonal nfluences, especally the varyng proxmty to actve nuclear power plants, resultng n dfferent levels of senstvty. To account for ths possblty, we nclude the dstance proxy descrbed n Secton 3 and nteract t wth our effect varables. Snce, n the precedng analyses, predomnant effects were observed for the outcome very worred, we focus on ths category by testng ts probablty aganst the two other possbltes usng a standard logt approach. For consstency we generate a dummy varable for lfe satsfacton as well. Ths ndcator s coded 1 above the mean of seven and zero below. Followng Wnkelmann and Wnkelmann (1998) we hence model the effect category for people wth hgh lfe satsfacton. Table 4 reports the estmated results of all regonal nteracton models for each endogenous varable used n the prevous analyses. All logt models are estmated ncludng the weghted dstance measures. The nteracton effects are reported at means. Furthermore Fgure 1 vsualzes ths nfluence of the respondents dstance to the nearest actve power plant on worres about the envronment and on worres about the securty of nuclear power plants. Both models are vsualzed because of detected regonal nfluences. In detal, Fgures 1a, 1c and 1e correspond to the man effects of the estmates reported n Table 4 columns 2 and 4. Fgures 1b, 1d and 1f show the dstrbuton of each correspondng nteracton effect. To avod possble based estmates arsng from the use of nteracton terms n nonlnear models, the correspondng coeffcents, standard errors and vsualzatons are calculated accordng to Norton et al. (2004) and Mtchell and Chen (2005). 10

14 Table 4 Fukushma accdent and nuclear power phase-out n Germany dstance to the nearest actve power plant Before Fukushma accdent: 02/01/ /10/2011 Lfe satsfacton (Ref.) Envronement Energy supply Power plant securty (Ref.) Fukushma accdent: *** 03/11/ /05/2011 (0.0130) (0.0119) (Ref.) a (Ref.) a Nuclear power phase-out *** *** 06/06/ /30/2011 (0.0176) (0.0141) (0.0125) (0.0174) Dstance to the nearest actve power plant (weghted) (0.0003) (0.0002) (0.0003) (0.0004) Fukushma accdent * *** Dstance (weghted) (0.0002) (0.0002) Nuclear power phase-out * ** ** Dstance (weghted) (0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0003) Observatons Pseudo R a Reference Perod: (04/01/ /05/2013) Notes: Logt estmates; dependent varables: General lfe satsfacton (0/1), worres about envronmental protecton (0/1), worres about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear (0/1), worres about the securty of nuclear power plants (0/1); margnal effects: Probablty of beng very worred ; robust standard errors n brackets; coeffcents of the models, wth error probabltes n parentheses: ***p< **p< *p<0.1; cross secton weghts; other exogenous varables: see Table 1, 2 and 3. Confrmng our prevous fndngs, there s no measurable effect of the Fukushma accdent on reported lfe satsfacton. However, regardng the phase-out decson, a respondent at mean dstance to the nearest actve reactor has a probablty of reportng hgh lfe satsfacton ncreased by about 4.7 percentage ponts (cf. Table 4 column 1). As the nteracton terms are non-sgnfcant, these results are not senstve to the respondents geographc locatons. Smlarly, the effects on worres about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy show no sgnfcant regonal dversty for the nuclear phase-out decson (column 3). Both parameters and the nteracton term are non-sgnfcant. In contrast, the nteracton effects for concerns about the envronment and the worres about the securty of nuclear power plants turn out to be hghly sgnfcant, ndcatng some degree of regonal varaton. We note that t s not the absolute dstance to the nearest nuclear power plant that drves these effects, whch s non-sgnfcant throughout all models. Accordng to column 2 of Table 4, the sole probablty of reportng very hgh concerns about the envronment ncreases by about 5.5 percentage ponts when the ntervews are conducted n the weeks after the Fukushma accdent. However, each addtonal klometer between a respondent s place of 11

15 resdence and the nearest actve reactor has an average compensatory effect of about 0.05 percentage ponts (c.f. Fgures 1a and 1b). Followng the announcement of the nuclear phase-out, the estmated probablty of reportng very hgh concerns about the securty of nuclear power plants decreases by 11.1 percentage ponts on average (c.f. Table 4, column 4). Wth ncreasng dstance to the nearest actve reactor, the predcted probablty of beng very worred about the securty of nuclear plants decreases even further (about 0.05 percentage ponts per klometer). The correspondng nteracton term can be located as the dfference of the slope of the effect lne mnus the slope of the reference lne (c.f. Fgure 1e). Thus, t can be concluded that even though the resoluton of a nuclear phase-out leads to a decrease n fears, ths relef s less pronounced the nearer the respondent lves to an actve nuclear reactor. Takng nto account that the process of complete nuclear phase-out n Germany s supposed to last untl the year 2022, these results can also be nterpreted as a reflecton of the hgher senstvty towards atomc energy when one lves n the vcnty of a nuclear power staton. 12

16 13

17 6. Concluson The use of nuclear power s often controversally dscussed. Whle wdely accepted as a power source, t also faces strong publc opposton n some countres. Major nuclear accdents as n Chernobyl or recently n Fukushma set nuclear power plant securty on top of the publc agenda. In Germany, facng publc pressure, a nuclear power phase-out plan was passed by the government n the aftermath of Fukushma In ths artcle, we analyze the effects of the Fukushma nuclear accdent and the subsequent phase-out on subjectve perceptons n Germany, usng four sngle tem measurements from the SOEP: general lfe satsfacton, concerns about the envronment, worres about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy and concerns about the safety of nuclear power statons. Our fndngs suggest that the Fukushma accdent tself led to an ncrease n the probablty of reportng hgh concerns about envronmental protecton of about 5 percentage ponts. Moreover, both, general lfe satsfacton and worres about the safety of nuclear power plants are strongly affected by the governments decson on nuclear power phase-out, resultng n an ncrease n reported levels of happness by scale ponts (OLS estmates) on a scale from zero to ten, respectvely a declne n the probablty of beng very worred about power plant securty of 9.1 percentage ponts. Whle the respondents ndvdual geographc proxmty to an actve nuclear power plant turns out to be nsgnfcant n context of general lfe satsfacton, the magntude of the detected effects for envronmental concerns as well as fears about nuclear power plant safety depend on such regonal characterstcs. In summary, our results are conclusve that catastrophes and changes n polces can have an mmedate mpact on publc percepton. Whle these results are consstent wth reasonable pror belefs, ths study adds to the lterature that provdes emprcal evdence, and provdes an approxmaton of the magntude of such effects. Moreover, one can conclude that the German government s decson on an energy turnaround n the weeks after the Fukushma accdent had a sgnfcant postve nfluence on the German publc percepton. Even though the correspondng effects are of nonmonetary nature and are thus dffcult to compare wth the classcal monetary costs assocated wth the accelerated nuclear phase-out, they should probably stll be taken nto consderaton when evaluatng the total economc welfare effect of ths change n polcy. 14

18 These postve subjectve externaltes appear even more pronounced when takng nto consderaton that no evdence was found for an ncrease n concerns about the relablty of energy supply wthout the use of nuclear energy durng the weeks after the actual government resoluton. However, t should be noted that the analyss presented here focuses on a short to medum tme horzon after the actual events. It s up to future research to look nto longer term effects that could for nstance be caused by contnuously rsng energy prces as observed n recent years. 15

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