Heat Transition Key technologies for reaching the intermediate and long-term climate targets in the German building sector.

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1 Heat Transition 2030 Key technologies for reaching the intermediate and long-term climate targets in the German building sector Matthias Deutsch 12 MAY 2017

2 Heat transition 2030 Study by: Fraunhofer Institutes for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) und Building Physics (IBP) Question: How can we reach the German 2030 climate target (-55% GHG emissions) in the building heat sector? Which paths do not exclude -95% GHG emissions until 2050? Method: Comparison of scenarios 2030/2050 Trend: Energy reference forecast, projection report Target: Climate protection scenarios, scenarios by IWES, ISE Sensitivity calculations 2030 with energy system optimization model Key boundary conditions : -55% GHG; -38% non-ets 2

3 Comparison of 2030/2050 scenarios 3

4 A climate-neutral building stock in 2050 must rely on efficiency, distributed renewable energy, and decarbonised heating networks. Decarbonisation options with a 40 % reduction of final energy use for building heat Reduction in final energy use: 40 to 60% until 2050, according to the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy s Energy Efficiency Strategy for Buildings. Nearby renewable heat sources have restrictions regarding ambient heat, solar thermal and biomass. Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) Decarbonised heating grids have restrictions with respect to heat density, deep geothermal energy, large-scale solar thermal installations and heat pumps. The hatched areas indicate the range of potentials for efficiency and renewable energy. A portion of nearby renewable heat sources can also be merged together as part of small-scale distributed heat networks. 4

5 1 st pillar energy efficiency is the foundation of decarbonisation! Scenario comparison: final energy use for building heat in TWh/Jahr Gap analysis: the trend scenarios contain significant barriers; target scenarios show range of -40% to -66% relative to Small impact of new building construction compared to the existing building stock. New buildings have to meet efficiency standards whereas the renovation rate is harder to influence. Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) * Climate target -80% includes -80% to -85%. Current trends in the development of energy efficient buildings are insufficient to meet -95% target 5

6 2 nd pillar heating networks! Scenario comparison: share of heating grids in the final energy use of buildings Potential for heating network expansion from today s 10% to 23% by 2050 Renewable heat in heating networks: role of combined-heat-and-power, electrode boilers vs. large-scale heat pumps, large-scale solar thermal installations, deep geothermal energy A temperature reduction is necessary. Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) * Climate target -80% includes -80% to -85%. The trend development in the share of heating grids is insufficient, especially if the -95% GHG emissions path is to be followed until

7 3 rd pillar on site renewable heat sources: Heat pumps have the largest potential. Decarbonisation options with a 40 % reduction of final energy use for building heat and nearby renewable heat potential in TWh/Jahr Solar thermal and biomass have smaller potential than heat pumps. Data are drawn from German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy s Energy Efficiency Strategy for Buildings For ground-source heat pumps (186 TWh) from Beuth/ifeu (2017) One has to add the potential of air-source heat pumps Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) The hatched areas indicate the range of potentials for efficiency and renewable energy. A portion of nearby renewable heat sources can also be merged together as part of small-scale distributed heat networks.. 7

8 Decentralized heat pumps are a key technology with a high to very high level of market penetration in all target scenarios. No. of heat pumps in scenario comparison in millions and shortfalls in heat pumps Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) Heat pumps offer cost-efficient climate mitigation. In the target scenarios, 3.6 to 8.1 million heat pumps need to be installed by Annual heat pump sales rise by around 60 percent in the trend scenarios, but they must increase fivefold to reach the average target scenarios. Heat pump shortfall of around 3 to 4 million heat pumps between trend scenario levels and the needed target value of 5 to 6 million heat pumps. A portion of heat pumps in individual buildings can be merged as part of smallscale distributed heating networks. 8

9 Climate targets can only be reached with a high heat pump penetration in the existing building stock. Comparison of # of heat pumps by scenario (from 2030: old buildings before 2010) Heat pumps [millions] ,5 0,6 0,7 Trend Climate target * Trend Climate target * 1,8 0,7-80% -95% -80% -95% Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) data appendix * Climate target -80% includes -80% to -85%. 6,2 2,6 6,8 4,8 2,5 12,3 7,3 14,2 11,0 The trend leads to about 1 to 2 million heat pumps in old buildings (i.e. construction before 2010). The target path of -80% GHG emissions by 2050 requires about 3 to 6 million heat pumps in old buildings by The target path of -95% GHG emissions by 2050 needs about 5 to 7 million heat pumps in old buildings by The greatest challenge for heat pumps in old buildings is the need for sufficient building efficiency. 9

10 2030 sensitivity analysis 10

11 A climate friendly building heating mix for 2030 Building heating mix in 2015 and 2030 with two different targets for heat pumps as a share of final energy consumption for heating (by %) A climate friendly building heating mix in 2030 consists of 40 percent natural gas, 25 percent heat pumps, and 20 percent heat networks with little to no oil. Further efforts are needed if we do not want to exclude a 95% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions until 2050? Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) * Heating system shares according to EMob(-) sensitivity. ** Extrapolation of EMob(-): The amount of energy of a million additional heat pumps (24 TWh) is deducted equally from gas- and oil-fired boilers provided that total energy consumption for heat remains constant.

12 Combining several energy sources: Oil/gas hybrid heat pumps offer the opportunity to combine climate mitigation, flexibility and efficiency. Heating mix for buildings (households and commerce) in TWh per year Heat demand in TWh/ year Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) monovalente Luft- air-source HP Wärmepumpe bivalente Luft-Wärmepumpe air-source HP District KWK Wärmepumpen Basis heat KK other Sonstige Systeme heating pumps systems Müll waste Biomasse biomass (mit/ohne (w/ or w/o KWK) CHP) Ölkessel oil boilers - Bestand existing stock Gaskessel gas boilers - Bestand existing stock Gaskessel gas boilers - Zubau additions Erdwärmepumpe ground-source HP Fernwärme-KWK district heating mit CHP Solarthermie with solar thermal KWK-Bestand CHP existing stock In 2030, high shares of variable renewables in the electricity sector require high flexibility, even if all other barriers are reduced. Hybrid and bivalent systems provide flexibility and an efficient overall system Industrial CHP + electrode boilers District heating CHP + electrode boilers and large-scale heat pumps Hybrid/bivalent heat pumps Inflexible heat pumps cannot be easily integrated into the system anymore. We therefore need Heat storage Variable electricity tariffs Flexible heat pumps 12

13 Sensitivity calculations for 2030 Highest demand and energy consumed of heat pumps * Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) 13

14 For 2030 we need a renewable energy target for Germany of at least 60 % of gross electricity consumption. Renewable energy share in gross electricity consumption [%] 80% 60% 40% For 2030, renewables must make up at least 60 % of gross electricity consumption.. 45% 40% 60% 55% kostenoptimaler Cost-optimal share Erneuerbare-Energien- of renewable energy for Anteil reaching zur 2030 climate targets * Klimazielerreichung 2030 * Ziele German der federal goals Bundesregierung laid down in EEG 2017 gemäß EEG % 32% EE-Anteil Renewable am share Bruttostrom-verbrauch in gross electricity consumption 0% * 55 percent reduction of total greenhouse gas emissions relative to 1990 levels and a 38 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions outside the EU ETS relative to 2005 levels. Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) 14

15 Findings at a glance: The heating sector needs to phase out oil: A cost-efficient, climate friendly energy mix for building heating would most likely consist of 40 per cent natural gas, 25 per cent heat pumps, and 20 per cent district heating with little to no oil. Efficiency is decisive: To meet the 2030 targets, the energy use for the heating of buildings must decline by 25 per cent relative to 2015 levels. Current trends in building renovation fall far short of these targets. Sufficient building efficiency is a prerequisite for heat pumps. The heat pump gap: Based on current trends, some 2 million heat pumps will be installed by 2030 but 5 to 6 million are needed (including bivalent or hybrid systems), some of which can be merged as part of small-scale distributed heating networks. Renewable electricity for heat pumps: By 2030, renewable energy must comprise at least 60 per cent of gross power consumption in Germany. 15

16 Agora Energiewende Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Str Berlin T +49 (0) F +49 (0) Please subscribe to our newsletter via Thank you for your attention! Questions or Comments? Feel free to contact me: download summary (English) download full study (German) matthias.deutsch@agora-energiewende.de Agora Energiewende is a joint initiative of the Mercator Foundation and the European Climate Foundation

17 Backup

18 Robust paths which do not exclude an ambitious climate target for 2050 Development of heat pump stock in millions Installed 20 heat pumps [millions] Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) By 2030, a high number of heat pumps is needed if 2050 climate targets are to remain an option Historisch Klimaziel -95% - ISWV-95 Klimaziel -80% - ISWV-83 Example from the scenario ISWV (Fh-IWES): high restrictions due to age structure because many boilers are older than 25 or 30 years The dotted paths assume that heating systems are not replaced before the end of their technical lifespan, which amounts to 25 years for fossil fuel-fired boilers The corresponding high level of heat pumps from the Climate Protection Scenarios (KSz 95, Oeko-Institute et al. 2015), amounts to about 6 million heat pumps in 2030 and increases to 14 million heat pumps by Therefore, we need at least 6 million heat pumps by 2030 if we do not want to exclude an ambitious climate target for

19 The scenario comparison contains electricity consumption for heat applications in households, heating networks and industry. Electricity consumption for heat applications in different scenarios [TWh/year] Target scenarios contain: Partially decentralized heating rods in boilers or small CHP Partially large-scale heat pumps in heat grids In the long run consistently power-to-heat (electrode boilers) in heat grids partially power-to-heat in industry Large-scale heat pumps in industry as a key technology New direct-electric process heat applications in the -95% scenarios for substituting fossil fuels (which are evaluated differently) Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) For 2030, the importance of electric applications differs by the assumption of how early curtailment of PV and wind becomes relevant. Direct-electric process heat Power-to-Heat industry Heat pumps industry Heat pumps decentralized Power-to-heat decentralized Heat pumps in heat grids Power-to-heat in heat grids Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) 19

20 Methodology: Scenario comparison and sensitivity calculations. Fh-IWES/IBP (2017) 20