Norman Gerhardt Berlin, 28. Februar Langfristige Sektorkopplung in einem dekarbonisiertem Europa. Ausblick auf Deutschland und Frankreich

Transcription

1 Fraunhofer IWES Energiesystemtechnik Norman Gerhardt Berlin, 28. Februar 2017 Langfristige Sektorkopplung in einem dekarbonisiertem Europa Ausblick auf Deutschland und Frankreich L intégration sectorielle à long terme dans une Europe décarbonée Perspectives sur l Allemagne et la France

2 Content How can a 100% renewable energy scenario across all sectors look like? (reduction of -95% THG COP21 in Paris) focus: comparison of Germany and France core message

3 Capacity expansion and dispatch optimisation input parameters results fuel costs technology costs potentials / restrictions time series for energy demand (power, heat, mobility) Europe and/or DE minimising costs in compliance with climate objectives optimal power mix optimaler heat mix installed capacities quantity structure CO 2 price markets: power market heat market (div. house types) gas market mobility profiles CO 2 market technology portfolio: wind power, PV power stoarge power-to-gas BEV PHEV/REEV run-of-river KWK climatisation kettle trolleys condensing plants power-to-heat el. heat pumps solarthermal geothermal

4 Assumption for this scenario 100% renewable energy in 2050 but: liquid synthetic fuels (PtL) from outside of Europe limited national electricity requirements biomass hydro wind pv geothermal gas uranium exit from direct electric heaters example of France: reducing of the maximum load Share of RES on the net power generation, without gas in %

5 Installed capacities in Europe in 2050 very high amounts of weather-dependent wind power and photovoltaics necessary integration through sector coupling and european balancing

6 Europe 2050 rising power demand and generation more than TWh electricity consumption (today about 550 TWh)

7 Strom [TWh/a] Germany 2050 detailed power demand and generation RES curtailment net import gas, CHP gas, cond. waste-to-energy wind and pv sector coupling power-to-gas power-to-heat trolleys el. vehicles climatisation decentral heat pumps run-of-river 300 wind offshore 200 wind onshore 100 photovoltaics 0 Erzeugung electrification of other energy sectors Verbrauch central heat pumps new process heat storage losses grid losses conventional demand

8 fleet of vehicles Transport and heating sector developement of cars - today until 2050 Efficiency increase through electrification E-mobiliy BEV / PHEV overhead hybrid trucks heat pumps decentralized heating networks industrie year heating sector in 2050

9 Conventional generation and additional consumers Renewable generation 2 example weeks - demand and generation 2050 integration of RES through sector coupling flexibility and direct electrical power usage Generation and power demand in Germany 2050 meteorological year 2011, 9./10. calendar week Germany load pv wind onshore wind offshore run-of-river biomass net export net import residual load rl imp + exp Coupling of the energy sectors storage, disscharging gas turbine CCPP, condensation CHP, district heating CHP, industry heat pumps, central Heat pumps, decentr. el. vehicles climatisation storage, charging PtH PtG curtialment

10 Conventional generation and additional consumers Renewable generation 2 example weeks - demand and generation 2050 integration of RES through sector coupling flexibility and direct electrical power usage Generation and power demand in France 2050 meteorological year 2011, 9./10. calendar week European balancing France load pv wind onshore wind offshore run-of-river biomass net export net import residual load rl imp + exp storage, disscharging gas turbine CCPP, condensation CHP, district heating uranium heat pumps, central Heat pumps, decentr. el. vehicles climatisation storage, charging PtH PtG curtialment

11 Renewable generation Renewable generation Annual balance of the RES feed-in import/export Annual load duration curves of RE-infeed and the residual load, meteorological year 2011 Germany Load pv wind onshore wind offshore run-of-river biomass residual load Rl imp + exp water storage Annual load duration curves of RE-infeed and the residual load, meteorological year 2011 France Load pv wind onshore wind offshore run-of-river biomass residual load Rl imp + exp

12 Conventional generation and additional consumers Conventional generation and additional consumers Annual balance thermal power plans und flexible demand thermal power plants Annual load duration curves of the power plant operation and additional consumers, meteorol. year 2011 Germany storage, disscharging gas turbine CCPP, condensation CHP, district heating CHP, industry heat pumps, central Heat pumps, decentr. el. vehicles climatisation storage, charging PtH PtG curtialment Annual load duration curves of the power plant operation and additional consumers, meteorol. year 2011 France storage, disscharging gas turbine CCPP, condensation CHP, district heating CHP, industry uranium heat pumps, central Heat pumps, decentr. el. vehicles climatisation storage, charging PtH PtG curtialment The need for electricity generation by thermal power plants is low The costs for the provision of capacities (gas turbines) are very low

13 abgerufene Leistung [GW] Annual balance thermal power plans the analyzes shown refer to the historical weather year 2011 this result is also robust over 7 years of weather data in 2006 to 2012 Germany load duration curve of thermal power plants Stunden im Jahr [h]

14 Core message The electrification of other energy sectors with the efficiency technologies heat pumps and e-mobility is the key to decarbonisation of the entire energy supply system An almost exclusively on weather-dependent components (wind and PV) is functional and efficient Conditions are: flexibility of the new electricity consumers european balancing via the electricity market

15 Thank you for your attention! Norman Gerhardt Head of Energy Economics and System Analysis Tel.: Fraunhofer IWES Königstor Kassel