Condition Monitoring. Simon Rowland The University of Manchester

Transcription

1 Condition Monitoring Simon Rowland The University of Manchester

2 My Intentions: Inform HubNet paper on Condition Monitoring Set out ideas in this primer session Establish questions for following workshop What are the research questions? How should these be addressed? Who should be engaged?

3 The presentation Amperes and life extension Have the motivations changed? The normal academic approach The questions

4 Typical presentation from 5 years ago!

5 The need to maintain reliable energy supply ageing plant changing requirements (environment) supply characteristics loads thermal cycles power quality renewable and distributed generation a reduced skills base minimum cost

6 Asset Manager integrate with network planning changing regulatory environment enable optimum usage, maintenance and replacement of plant reduce environmental impact changing climate changing generation ageing plant changing loads

7 Asset managers questions: How do changing load cycles and magnitudes effect plant reliability? How does ambient temperature impact reliability? What do non-power frequency stresses do? Are the heuristics developed from experience still going too apply? Am I reaching a cliff edge?

8 The need to maintain reliable energy supply ageing plant changing requirements (environment) supply characteristics loads thermal cycles power quality renewable and distributed generation a reduced skills base minimum cost

9 The need to maintain reliable energy supply ageing plant changing requirements (environment) supply characteristics loads thermal cycles power quality renewable and distributed generation a reduced skills base minimum cost Step increase

10 Drivers of Asset Management In power utilities Generation cost, efficiency, availability, risk Transmission risk, availability Distribution cost, quality, flexibility Conversion - losses

11 Questions 1 and 2 What are the drivers for condition monitoring? What do we want to know?

12 So how might condition monitoring be used?

13 Asset managers view Impact on network performance Do Nothing Replacement Change Environment Perform Maintenance Asset management decisions It might be the right thing to do nothing. Can I defend doing nothing - even after a failure? Do I measure things just because I can? (it s best to look busy!)

14 Asset managers view Impact on network performance Do Nothing Replacement Change Environment Perform Maintenance Ambient temp Load (cycling) Harmonics Switching surges.. Knowledge of environment Acceptable limits of physical parameters. Ageing models Level of oxidation Void size Tree length Water content Crack growth Asset management decisions Measurements, condition monitoring, ageing models Knowledge of history Loading Harmonics Switching surges.. PD DGA FRA DMTA Voltage withstand Tensile testing

15 Question 3 In what context is condition monitoring to be used? Individual plant item By plant class In network analysis/planning?

16 The wrong approach

17 Two condition issues with my car Windscreen crack A puncture Which of these is most common? Which can you forecast? What would you measure to forecast the likelihood? Measuring crack growth propagation will not tell you when a chip will start in your windscreen

18 Windscreen chip The occurrence does not depend upon Crack growth Ageing of the windscreen Glass morphology The occurrence does depend on Where you drive How much you drive The speed/manner you drive?

19 Punctured tyre The occurrence does depend on Where you drive How much you drive The speed/manner you drive Maintenance The age of the tyre We can forecast tyre life, but not puncture events

20 You must know The working environment How hard equipment is being driven All the stages of ageing

21 No shortage of information? Technical database search (hits) IEEE Explore Inspec Scopus partial discharge 5,774 12,186 16,181 corrosion 4,186 76, ,689 fatigue 5,807 59, ,247 cable and partial discharge 1,447 1,200 asset management 15,516 substation 13,336 So why fund more research? How do we add real value? substation and asset management 103 substation and prognostics 2

22 Environment, condition and ageing -not linear processes Cable failure processes Accidental dig-up Corrosion of metallic sheath Moisture penetration Dielectric heating Partial discharge Electrical tree growth Why measure this one? I can Non-intrusive Remote Trackable Lots of interpretation I can publish Breakdown

23 The five layers Asset Management Prognostics Equipment state estimation Ageing models Equipment Material State Circumstance monitoring Stress factors Measurands Condition monitoring

24 So to be useful we must Understand the complete ageing cycle Understand the NETWORK failure mechanisms in detail Understand the working environment and the stresses that drive ageing Identify what we can measure Develop ageing models Identify the future (and past) ageing environments Develop practical tools (hardware and software)

25 So to be useful we should not measure stuff because we can assume an ageing process is a failure mechanism ignore the true working environment expect to predict lifetimes of over-designed products

26 Question 3 and 4 How do we make condition monitoring of real value? Are there beacons of excellence? Should plant owners prioritise measuring plant or its environment? What should be measured?

27 Role of condition monitoring Impact on network performance Do Nothing Replacement Change Environment Perform Maintenance Ambient temp Load (cycling) Harmonics Switching surges.. Knowledge of environment Acceptable limits of physical parameters. Ageing models Level of oxidation Void size Tree length Water content Crack growth Asset management decisions Measurements, condition monitoring, ageing models Knowledge of history Loading Harmonics Switching surges.. PD DGA FRA DMTA Voltage withstand Tensile testing

28 Question 5 and 6 Given the complexity of exploitation How should the academic community link to end-users/ form collaborative research projects? What skills are really required?

29 The seven layers Customer/Stakeholder management Network Management Asset management Material state Stress factors Ageing mechanisms Measurands

30 The questions (a) 1. What are the drivers for condition monitoring? 2. What do we want to know? 3. In what context is condition monitoring to be used (item/class/network)? 4. How do we make condition monitoring of real value? Are there beacons of excellence?

31 The questions (b) 5. Should plant owners prioritise measuring plant or its environment? What should be measured? 6. How should the academic community link to end-users/ form collaborative research projects? 7. What skills are really required?