Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation Session

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2 KATHERINE TOUZINSKY U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation Session JENNIFER OGRODNICK PIANC Working Group 178 / Baird & Associates HELEN BROHL Committee of Marine Transportation Systems (CMTS)

3 Outline Background Presentations (1 hr) JENNIFER OGRODNICK Climate Change Adaptation for Maritime and Inland Port and Navigation Infrastructure Break (30 min) Discussions (1.5 hr) Resilience Long-term disturbances Short-term disturbances KATHERINE TOUZINSKY Committee of Marine Transportation Systems Resilience Integration

4 Forthcoming guidance from PIANC WG 178 Climate Change Adaptation for Ports, Waterways and Navigation Infrastructure Jennifer Ogrodnick, M.Sc., P.Eng. PIANC Working Group 178 April 27, 2017

5 Objectives PIANC WG 178 Climate Change Adaptation Process Exchange ideas Gain insight

6 Background Information

7 What is PIANC? PIANC is THE World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure Mission To provide expert guidance and technical advice To keep the international waterborne transport community connected What are working groups? Global technical experts from private and public sector Develop guidance documents

8 Background PIANC participated in COP21 in Paris as part of the Think Climate coalition. 195 countries adopted the Paris agreement initiating an international plan of action to limit global warming to well below 2 o c. Despite the Paris agreement, we are locked in to changes caused by temperature increase. Think Climate is a multistakeholder coalition with interests in waterborne transport infrastructure. PIANC s Think Climate coalition have committed to work together to support the inland and maritime navigation infrastructure sector as they respond to climate change. Navclimate.pianc.org

9 Background Key messages from COP21: Significant challenge adapting infrastructure. Countries / organisations that will be hit hardest are the least well resourced to adapt. The time to act is now! Time to Adapt. PIANC formed WG 178.

10 Background The objectives of the guidance document on Climate Change Adaptation for Ports and Navigation Infrastructure include: Develop an approach to climate change adaptation planning and delivery; Understand and provide guidance on addressing challenges and identifying priorities; and Provide a guidance framework for decision making. Especially for organisations with limited resources.

11 Climate Change Adaptation Process

12 Climate Change Adaptation Process

13 Climate Change Adaptation Process

14 Climate Change Adaptation Process

15 Climate Change Adaptation Process

16 Understand and interpret the climate science Sea levels Air temp. Storms Sea surface temp Waves Winds Precipitation Water Chemistry

17 Sea Levels Water levels are changing. Increasing seas due to thermal expansion of the oceans and loss of land-based ice. Past and Future Sea Level Rise For Representative Concentration Pathways (RPCs) (IPCC AR5, Figure 13.27)

18 Storms Projected change in the average cyclone frequency over the period relative to (IPCC, 2013)

19 Winds Trends in Surface Wind Speeds for from Various Data Sets (IPCC, 2013)

20 Local Data Local data is used to assess the climate change drivers. Some form of meteorological or oceanographic data are often available through government monitoring programs. It may be necessary to install local monitoring stations.

21 Climate Change Adaptation Process

22 Climate Change Adaptation Process

23 Climate Change Adaptation Process

24 Evaluate Adaptation Options Identify options that best contribute to the objectives of the adaptation initiative and are feasible across a range of criteria. Develop screening criteria Preliminary screening of options Refine evaluation criteria Re-assess remaining options Adaptation measured for implementation

25 Resilience The ability to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions.

26 Resilience Quantification Port Performance Indicator (tons/hour) Possible Disturbances (Storm surge) Immediate Effects of Disruption (Flooding and Structural Damage to Wharf) Robustness Performance Immediately After Disturbance Rapidity Time to Restore Pre-disturbance Performance Robustness Objective Robustness Score Rapidity Score Rapidity Objective Resilience = 100% if all objectives are met for the full range of possible disruptions. Resilience Score Resilience < 100% if there are situations where some objectives are not met for some conditions.

27 Resilience Quantification Port Performance Indicator (Tons/ship-hour) Possible Disturbances (Storm surge) Immediate Effects of Disruption (Limited flooding, no structural damage) Adaptation Measure (Increase elevation of wharf) Robustness Performance Immediately After Disturbance Rapidity Time to Restore Pre-disturbance Performance Robustness Objective Robustness Score Rapidity Score Rapidity Objective Resilience = 100% if all objectives are met for the full range of possible disruptions. Resilience Score Resilience < 100% if there are situations where some objectives are not met for some conditions.

28 Climate Change Adaptation Process

29 Make a decision GO TO SECTION 5 PRELIMINARY ASESSMENT FEASIBLE OPTION(S) IS IMPLEMENTATION URGENT? YES NO ARE RESOURCES AVAILABLE? YES NO YES NO IMPLEMENT REVIEW ALTERNATIVE (E.G. SHORT TERM/ INTERIM OPTIONS) IDENTIFY NO OR LOW REGRETS SOLUTIONS MONITOR IMPLEMENT REVIEW IN X YEARS

30 Make a decision GO TO SECTION 5 PRELIMINARY ASESSMENT FEASIBLE OPTION(S) IS IMPLEMENTATION URGENT? YES NO ARE RESOURCES AVAILABLE? YES NO YES NO IMPLEMENT REVIEW ALTERNATIVE (E.G. SHORT TERM/ INTERIM OPTIONS) IDENTIFY NO OR LOW REGRETS SOLUTIONS MONITOR IMPLEMENT REVIEW IN X YEARS

31 Make a decision GO TO SECTION 5 PRELIMINARY ASESSMENT FEASIBLE OPTION(S) IS IMPLEMENTATION URGENT? YES NO ARE RESOURCES AVAILABLE? YES NO YES NO IMPLEMENT REVIEW ALTERNATIVE (E.G. SHORT TERM/ INTERIM OPTIONS) IDENTIFY NO OR LOW REGRETS SOLUTIONS MONITOR IMPLEMENT REVIEW IN X YEARS

32 Climate Change Adaptation Process

33 Implement Adaptation Measures Appreciate uncertainty Climate change adaptation implementation considerations Consider a phased approach Use monitoring Promote additional research and technical studies

34 Climate Change Adaptation Process

35 Key Messages Future planning consider changes in the climate. Set clear objectives Have an open mind Use a resilience based assessment Ensure long-term resilience through a constantly evolving adaptation plan

36 Guidance Document Status Under development Draft deadline end of 2017 We need your help! Case studies: Looking for examples of Ports who have started the climate change adaption process. To contribute, please me at

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