CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere. 9 th December 2015 INTEGRATED GLOBAL MODELLING AND ANALYSIS

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1 Coupling Socio economic factors into a Global ESM: An inter comparison of the social economic consequences of the IPCC RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere. 9 th December 2015 INTEGRATED GLOBAL MODELLING AND ANALYSIS

2 Agenda IPCC Emissions Scenarios and Environmental outcomes Aim of the study Modelling approach: GTEM C Scenario analysis and results Implications 2 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

3 IPCC Emissions Scenarios 3 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Ernesto Valenzuela, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

4 Scenario Storylines RCP 8.5: a high GHG emission pathway forms a business as usual baseline scenario that does not include any climate mitigation targets RCP4.5: steady growth in emissions during first half of century then a decline in emissions leading to a radiative forcing that stabilizes Study aim is to examine in a unified framework: The cost of carbon mitigation from RCP 8.5 to 4.5 The benefit of avoiding climate change 4 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

5 Conceptual Modelling Approach 5 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Ernesto Valenzuela, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

6 GTEM C Models 13 Electricity Technologies Coal Nuclear Wind Waste Coal with Carbon Capture and Storage Oil Hydro & Geothermal Solar Other Renewable Oil with Carbon Capture and Storage Gas Biomass Gas with Carbon Capture and Storage 6 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Ernesto Valenzuela, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

7 GTEM C Models Energy Consumption Differently 7 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Ernesto Valenzuela, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

8 Implementation Analysis Scenario Simulation Designing Policy Constraints Alternating Socioeconomic Settings/Policy ACCESS-CM Climate Feedback GTEM C Carbon Pathways Demonstrating Economic Outcomes Baseline Development GTAP Database Baseline Settings Electricity Database 8 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

9 Scenarios Reference case scenario is RCP 8.5. Counterfactual scenario is RCP 4.5. Global carbon price is used: To implement the mitigation via the adoption of new and cleaner energy technologies. 9 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

10 Two sets of comparisons RCP 8.5 without climate change damages with RCP 4.5 without climate change damages RCP 8.5 with climate change damages with RCP 4.5 with climate change damages 10 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

11 World GDP changes due to carbon mitigation 1.5% 1.0% Deviation from baseline (RCP8.5) 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Without damage With damage 11 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

12 Decomposition mitigation cost and benefit 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% Deviation from baseline (RCP8.5) 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Mitigation Cost Net Gain Mitigation Benefit 12 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

13 World GDP changes given different paces of electrification 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% Deviation from baseline (RCP8.5) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% a = 0.5 a = 1 a = 2 a = 5 13 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

14 Take home messages Negative impacts of C price on global GDP are outweighed by the positive impacts of reduced emissions and climate change. Due to the tightening of emissions from mid 2060 s, the GDP gains from mitigation lessen before picking up in Faster electrification can help to reduce mitigation cost, but who s going to finance the electrification? 14 Integrated Assessment Modelling and Analysis David Newth,, Yiyong Cai, and Don Gunasekera

15 Thank you CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship David Newth OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE FLAGSHIP