We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children.

Transcription

1 We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children. IAF GEOSS Workshop Report Space Sensors for Climate Monitoring UNESCO Paris, France 23 March 2010 PREFACE In response to increasing interest around the globe in the capacity for space-based measurements of key environmental parameters, now and well into the future, the International Astronautical Federation (IAF) organized a workshop on this topic through its Subcommittee on Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) on 23 March 2010 in Paris, France. The workshop was hosted by UNESCO. The IAF gathered representatives from the science, engineering, geoinformation, decision support, and policy-making communities with an objective to exchange information on the use of space systems to monitor essential Earth observations for weather, climate, and hazards over a range of atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial variables. The workshop provided an opportunity to discuss projects underway on activities that a.) inventory current and future space-based sensors that measure essential climate variables, b.) verify and validate sensor data products, and c.) seek to identify gaps in current and prospective sensor capabilities. The workshop agenda, along with each of the briefings from the workshop, are accessible at During the workshop discussions, the participants addressed the following: What do we need in terms of Earth observation from space? What do we have in terms of currently active and planned Earth observation missions? What are the gaps in terms of current and future availability of space observation capacities, and related programmatic issues (including international coordination) and technical issues? A key factor in determining what we need from Earth observation systems is derived from their relationship to climate models and decision support tools used to inform policy and management decisions. (Figure 1, GEOSS 2004) Workshop participants represented a set of organizations, herein referred to as a community of organizations that focus on Earth observations in this climate monitoring enterprise. This Workshop Report, prepared by the members of the IAF GEOSS Subcommittee in close collaboration with the workshop participants, endeavors to provide a concise, consistent source 1

2 of information for the climate community (including policy makers, resource managers, sponsors, information beneficiaries) on the benefits of, and need for, space monitoring capacity. Figure 1: Relationships between Earth observations and models and decision support. The IAF GEOSS Subcommittee gratefully recognizes each of the participating organizations and their representatives for their insightful contributions to the climate monitoring enterprise and for sharing their knowledge and skill in the Workshop on Space Sensors for Climate Monitoring. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Contributions of Space-based Sensors to Understanding Climate Change Our ability to view the Earth from space has transformed our view and understanding of our planet. Space technologies, from communications to navigation to remote sensing, have greatly improved life here on Earth. Earth observations from space have given governments and the private sector the ability to understand and make predictions of climate change which in turn is essential to be able to adapt to, mitigate, and minimize the impact of these changes. The importance of Earth observations to understanding climate change is acknowledged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2007 for its efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made 2

3 climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures needed to counteract such change. Earlier in 2007, the IPCC concluded that major advances in climate modeling and collection and analysis of data, including space-based monitoring, had given scientists very high confidence (representing a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct) in their understanding of how the climate is changing and considerably narrowed the uncertainties of the previous report released in The ability to characterize climate change is enabled by following the trends of global observations of a comprehensive set of multiple variables sustained over an appropriate period. Space-based sensors have the capacity to provide measurements of essential variables, and comprehensive monitoring is enabled by collaboration among nations around the globe. Currently, Earth observation spacecraft from space-faring nations carry science instruments capable of measuring a range of climate variables, including temperatures of the land and oceans, atmospheric trace gases, gravity, ice extent, and solar irradiance. These space-based monitoring systems developed and operated by NASA, NOAA, ESA, EUMETSAT, JAXA and other space and meteorological agencies augment ground systems in terms of coverage, frequency, and density of measurements, especially over unpopulated areas, like oceans. These climate observations are establishing a global database of empirical data to monitor long-term trends of key environmental conditions. Climate models using data from Earth observation systems are being developed and used to run projections for future scenarios. Standardized data sets are enabling interoperability with climate models and decision support tools that are currently being used by governments and the private sector for informed policy and management decisionmaking. Climate monitoring is a global enterprise. The global science community has identified a set of essential climate variables that can be monitored from space-based sensors. The global Earth observation satellite community is conducting an assessment of the sensors, both current and planned, that can make these measurements. The global intergovernmental community is coordinating an end-to-end approach to collecting and applying the data from the sensors to achieve societal benefits. Global humanitarian organizations are linking their decision tools to the information from climate models and sensor data to enhance lives, ecosystems, and sustainability. The IAF Workshop on Space Sensors for Climate Monitoring held on 23 March 2010 highlighted the valuable contributions of key organizations to the global climate monitoring enterprise. The workshop agenda, along with each of the briefings from the workshop, are accessible at Community of Organizations Coordinating and Collaborating on Climate The workshop brought together representatives from the community of international organizations involved in policy-making and implementation of policies related to climate change, coordination of climate observations and monitoring, and conduct of climate analyses and predictions. 3

4 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Group on Earth Observations identify and use Earth observations capabilities needed to understand and take actions with respect to climate change; The Global Climate Observing System, World Meteorological Organization, and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites inform governments and the private sector on the requirements for, and capabilities of, current and planned Earth observation satellites, along with the information they are providing; and The World Climate Research Programme, Committee on Space Research, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Food and Agriculture Organization, and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization develop the science base for climate research, monitoring and prediction, and identify applications for, and gaps in, current and future Earth observation capabilities. These organizations work closely together, forming a network that connects the policy-making, decision support, scientific, engineering, and geo-information communities and advances the exchange of information on our climate. This network builds on the expertise of each of the organizations and coordinates their activities to enable development of climate-related policies, coupled with management and acquisition strategies, to effectively provide and exploit synergies of assets and capabilities from around the globe to inform these policies. During the workshop, this community of organizations involved in climate change activities discussed their needs for and use of Earth observations, their efforts to identify Earth observation requirements and verify and validate the resulting data products, their assessment of current and future gaps in Earth observation capabilities, and their vision for addressing these gaps on an international basis. Community Concern over Looming Gap in Earth Observation Capabilities While the contributions of Earth observations to our current understanding of climate change have been substantial and critical, the capability to observe Earth from space is jeopardized by delays, and lack of funding, for many critical satellite monitoring missions. It is also threatened by the lack of an internationally recognized plan for an integrated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observation system that would address present and potential gaps in the current system and a vision for future generations of Earth observation systems through 2050 and beyond. This is critically important because evolving our knowledge of long-term climate trends requires sustained observations over decades. Building on a reliable Earth observation capacity relies heavily on the availability of inter-calibrated long-term data records, which can only be maintained if subsequent generations of satellite sensors overlap with their predecessors. Several specific challenges have been identified relative to sustaining high quality, continuous, and comprehensive Earth observation data. Many Earth observation satellites are developed for scientific or experimental purposes, and transition of these systems into an operational phase is critical to assuring long-term data continuity. 4

5 The current period is critical for both ensuring the continuity of currently active space missions, and also for planning with the benefit of international coordination the future space missions needed for a sustainable monitoring of the Earth system and its climate and for deriving the analyses of its state and evolution. Workshop Key Findings A summary of key findings compiled from the workshop include: 1. A global climate monitoring strategy is needed. 2. Requirements for space observation should be stabilized and managed. 3. Leveraging existing and planned assets and resources is essential. 4. Sustainability of Earth space-based observation capacities is necessary. 5. Data quality and standardization much be achieved globally. 6. Data access must be globally accommodated. 7. Dialogue with scientific communities must be a constant through all aspects of climate monitoring. 8. Education and capacity building are essential elements of a climate change strategy. Community Vision: International Climate Monitoring Strategy Needed An international climate monitoring strategy is necessary to mitigate and manage gaps in critical Earth observation capabilities and minimize inefficient duplication of measurement and monitoring capabilities. Without a vision for future generation Earth observation systems, space agencies, scientists, and associated organizations are inhibited from effectively focusing their contributions to a global system of systems. With climate change effects and impacts at the forefront of the international political agenda, policymakers are defining adaptation and mitigation strategies and implementation measures. There are benefits to balancing near term actions with needs for long term monitoring of the evolution of the climate. It will also be important to monitor the impacts of the actions being undertaken to address climate change to ensure they are yielding the intended results. It is essential that the network of international organizations involved in climate change work collaboratively together to jointly define a shared strategic approach for climate monitoring that addresses current and future Earth observation needs. The collaboration on this strategy would promote international cooperation and partnerships, especially regarding the coordination and integration of Earth observation capacities. A collaborative strategy can map the goals and requirements for this system, to and from the GEOSS nine societal benefit areas, so that governments at the Ministerial level can more easily understand the value and importance of approving and funding components of an integrated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observation system to effectively address climate and other global changes. 5

6 SPACE SENSORS FOR CLIMATE MONITORING Workshop Proceedings How the Participating Organizations Work Together: The workshop gathered representatives from key organizations throughout the supply chain (shown in Figure 2) associated with the climate monitoring enterprise: from coordination of climate observation and monitoring, through climate analyses and predictions, to implementation of informed decisions. These organizations cover the demand for information derived from the space observations and the supply of these observations. They can be grouped into four main categories, from implementation of policies (the political drivers for demand) to Earth observation infrastructure (the collection of observation data by space agencies and organizations). Formulation of policies and their management, involving national and intergovernmental authorities under the coordination of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ultimate objective of UNFCCC is stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. UNFCCC Parties have agreed to promote and cooperate in systematic observation and data archives related to climate change. Support to international, and national, decision-making processes, including preparation of assessments of current status of the climate system and future scenarios and projections. There are related assessments in terms of risks and impacts, including the accuracy of available information. Contributing to these activities are the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for land and resource management, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) for ocean monitoring and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) for education and preservation of cultural heritage. Generation of information derived from, or using, observations and generation of observational requirements. This information includes time series analysis for characterization of the current state of the Earth system and its past evolution, projections on its potential evolution, and global and regional impact analysis. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) develops a fundamental scientific understanding of the physical climate system and processes needed to determine climate forecasts, along with extent of human influence on climate. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is an organization of climate scientists who coordinate to define a long-term, user-driven operational system capable of providing the comprehensive observations required for monitoring the climate system, for detecting and attributing climate change, for assessing impacts of climate variability and change, and for supporting research toward improved understanding, modeling 6

7 and prediction of the climate system. The ICSU Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) is a platform for international collaboration which encourages climate research using space-based observations and supports free and open access to data in support of research and public good. In addition, these organizations provide requirements for climate space based observations that serve as implementation goals for space systems. Implementation of observation systems, including ground-based, seaborne, airborne and space infrastructure. These observation systems are characterized by space-time sampling and accuracy of measurements, and especially for climate monitoring purposes, by the availability and continuity of the observation capacities. Space agencies need to collaborate to best meet the needs set forth by GCOS and WCRP, which in turn derive requirements from climate models that are created to address policy concerns. Following the successful model of meteorology, the international coordination of Earth observation systems is currently achieved through several international organizations. Complementing the major role played by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in the area of meteorology, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), gathering the national and intergovernmental space agencies and space observation operators, coordinates international space observation capacities and shares best practices in terms of space missions. Beyond organizations linking Earth observations to policies and international stakeholders, two bodies play cross-cutting, coordination, and integration roles: The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is an intergovernmental body that meets at the ministerial level every 3 years and links international Earth observation capacities to 9 Societal Benefits Areas including climate, through GEOSS with the objective of ensuring that societal demands commonly agreed at international levels are adequately considered and implemented in terms of requirements and capacities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific intergovernmental body tasked with evaluating climate change and its impacts. Through its assessment activities, the IPCC provides analysis and synthesis in support of political discussions and decisions; it also provides recommendations about the needs and requirements for ensuring a comprehensive monitoring of climate, including Earth observation capacities. 7

8 INPUTS OUTPUTS DECISIONS IMPLEMENTATION Observations Analyses / Predictions / Forecasts Continuity Space/time sampling Accuracy State trends Model validation & improvement International / national processes Risk / Impacts Scenario Assessment Value / Benefits User uptake Assessments Reporting Surface Airborne Seaborne Space Observations Time series analysis Weather & Climate Models Regional Impact Analysis Decision Tools Policy Formulation, Implementation & Management WMO CEOS Space agencies GCOS WCRP FAO IOC UNESCO UNFCCC National & Intergovernmental Authorities GEO & IPCC Figure 2: Organizations and agencies coordinating to optimize space sensors for climate monitoring. Themes and messages that stage for the workshop included: 1. Understanding climate change needs global observations of multiple variables. 2. Space sensors have capacity to provide array of global observations. 3. Knowledge of long-term trends requires sustained observations over decades. 4. Comprehensive monitoring is enabled by collaboration amongst nations. 5. International organizations address policies, science, technology, and applications. 6. Standardized data sets enable interoperability with models and decision tools. 7. Calibration and validation are critical to enable utility of climate data. 8. WMO and GCOS systematic approach captures requirements for space systems. 9. CEOS assesses capacity of current/planned space systems for climate monitoring. 10. Areas where more progress is required includes: sensors to monitor unprecedented variables, effective coordination between research and operational sensors, planning successor sensor systems, and coordinating complementary sensor systems. Presentations From Each of the Contributing Organizations: What do we need - in terms of Earth observation from space? 8

9 Contributions from IPCC, UNFCCC and GEO The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Group on Earth Observations identify and use Earth observation capabilities to understand and take actions with respect to climate change. The following discussions about what is needed contributed to the set of findings: IPCC emphasized the concept of Climate Sensitivity defined as the change in global-average equilibrium near-surface temperature caused by a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 concentration. Climate Sensitivity is the quantity characterizing the importance of human-caused climate change. IPCC AR4 states that Climate Sensitivity ranges between 2 and 4.5, with a best estimate of about 3. It also mentions that changes in water vapour represent the largest feedback affecting climate sensitivity, and that cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty. This feedback analysis emphasizes the importance of documenting, through observations, the cloud characteristics and properties, and in particular the complete tridimensional structure of clouds and related radiative properties (Figure 3). It also highlights the importance of snow and ice cover and properties. Figure 3: Impacts of cloud cover on global average temperature. 9

10 UNFCCC highlighted that the Convention Article 4.1 (g) calls for promotion and cooperation in scientific, technological, socio-economic, and other research related to climate change, including systematic observation and development of data archives. The Convention also calls for support to international programmes, networks, and organizations in defining, conducting, assessing, and financing research and systematic observations, and for strengthening systematic observation and research capacity, in particular in developing countries. Key long term observations include global average temperature, sea level rise, and snow cover (Figure 4). Observations from space are important for the monitoring of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon sequestered and climate relevant parameters, as well as for improving availability, reliability, and accuracy of data with enhanced coverage and resolution. These observation data and derived information support mitigation and adaptation planning and management, thereby enhancing the ability of countries to adapt to climate change. Needs for sound climate data and information have been frequently expressed by UNFCCC Parties, and both Parties and international organizations have been called upon to address needs and priorities in relation to observations, in particular in developing countries. Figure 4 Global temperature, sea level, and snow cover trends from observations. Cooperation with CEOS, GCOS, GTOS, and GOOS and other partners involved in systematic observation activities are a key element in identifying and meeting observation needs in the UNFCCC process. In this context, in 2004, GCOS prepared an Implementation Plan in support of UNFCCC. In 2009, GCOS provided a progress report on the implementation. UNFCCC noted the progress on various observing systems, but also noted limited progress in filling in situ observation gaps in developing countries. One priority for the next five years is coordinated implementation, and long-term continuity, of the cross-cutting space-based component of GCOS. In 2006, UNFCCC welcomed a CEOS Report that delivered a coordinated space agency response to the GCOS Implementation Plan and invited space agencies to implement the actions identified in this report. Following an update of the CEOS report in 2009, UNFCCC welcomed progress by space agencies in responding to the GCOS plan as well as the commitment of CEOS member agencies to improve availability of data for forest carbon monitoring, and encouraged the coordinated implementation of cross-cutting space-based components of GCOS to be sustained over the long-term. Regarding GTOS, UNFCCC welcomed the proposal for a joint terrestrial framework mechanism between relevant UN agencies and ISO and encouraged its implementation. GTOS was invited to elaborate on a work plan for developing observational standards and protocols for the 13 terrestrials essential climate variables (ECVs). 10

11 CEOS, GCOS and GTOS are invited to report on progress at the UNFCCC (Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice - SBSTA) in November-December As part of the on-going deliberations under the Bali Action Plan, a global framework of action on adaptation is under consideration in the context of enhancing action on adaptation. Such a framework may address issues related to improving climate-related observations and data collection, including supply and availability of climate information and tools, sharing knowledge and data, enhancing or developing the needed information and knowledge base, and include support to capacity building for adaptation as well as establishing or strengthening regional centers and networks. Addressing the numerous and emerging needs for climate data and observations identified under the UNFCCC, including those related to research and systematic observation, adaptation and mitigation, will make a significant contribution to the implementation of the UNFCCC in the short and long term. GEO, comprised of 81 Member countries, along with the European Commission, and 58 Participating Organizations, noted the 2008 G8 Hokkaido Tokyo Summit where ministers agreed to accelerate efforts within the Global Earth Observation System of Systems by strengthening observation, prediction and data sharing ; and the 2009 G8 L Aquila Summit that recognized the need to address the increased threats of natural disasters and extreme weather phenomena caused by climate change by supporting the ongoing work on the development of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOSS (Figure 5) represents a distributed system of systems, enabling improved coordination of strategies and observation systems. The approach includes linking all platforms (including in situ, aircraft, satellite), facilitating exchange of data and information, identifying gaps in global capacity, improving decision-makers abilities to address pressing policy issues and enabling solutions for societal benefits. 11

12 Figure 5: GEO coordinates sustained observations from multiple observing systems for multiple societal benefits. The GEO Climate Societal Benefit Area (SBA) covers the understanding, assessment, prediction, mitigation and adaptation to climate variability and change, with a charge to: Enhance collaboration between observation, research, and user communities; Support the development of observational capabilities for ECVs; Identify climate products and information required for societal applications, and develop and implement approaches responding to these requirements; Facilitate access to climate data and models, particularly for developing countries; Facilitate exchange of data and information across other GEO SBAs; Combine climate data with socio-economic information to better anticipate manifestations of climate change in SBAs such as Disasters, Health, Water, Ecosystems and Agriculture; Develop a long-term strategy to improve observation capability, data assimilation and modeling; Advance the monitoring and predictability of climate on seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales. The GEOSS Data Sharing Principles applicable to climate monitoring include (i) full and open exchange of data, metadata, and products shared within GEOSS (recognizing relevant international instruments and national policies), (ii) sharing of data, metadata & products at minimum time delay and minimum cost, and 12

13 (iii) encouragement of a free of charge, or cost of reproduction, access for research and education. The Strategic Framework basis for the GEO Climate SBA is based on Climate Services and on WCRP and GCOS implementation approaches. Research, and decision support, both play an essential role for GEOSS implementation in this area. In particular, the climate community contributions include the understanding of the Earth system phenomena and processes, the development of Earth System modeling (including data assimilation schemes integrating both space and in situ data), and an interdisciplinary approach, e.g., the connection between global environmental change and human health (WCRP Initiative). What do we have - in terms of currently active and planned Earth observation missions? Contributions from GCOS, WMO and CEOS The Global Climate Observing System, World Meteorological Organization, and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites inform governments and the private sector on the requirements for, and capabilities of, current and planned Earth observation satellites, along with the information they are providing. The following discussions on what currently exists contributed to the set of findings: GCOS considers all observations needed to describe and understand the processes involved in a total climate system including atmospheric, hydrologic, oceanic, cryospheric, terrestrial and biological ones. For this purpose, GCOS integrates the terrestrial (GTOS) and ocean (GOOS) observing systems through the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS). The GCOS assessment approach is based on a loop that includes the observation needs, the ways to collect the required observations (monitoring guidelines and principles, standards), the resources identified for this data collection (e.g., network operators), and the status of the system and its possible improvements. The GCOS ECVs are based on a priority list of variables to be observed systematically. Initiated in 1995 in the GCOS Plan, the term ECV was promoted in 2003, within the 2nd Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC. There are 45 ECVs that are organized in categories of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial, with 26 characterized as suited to for global measurements from spacebased sensors. GCOS considers the resilience of a coordinated observing system for all ECVs. Assessment of the adequacy of monitoring ocean ECVs is shown in Figure 6. The approach includes crosscalibration of all space based observations with reference observing systems, which is critical to maintaining data continuity especially in case of major system or instrument failures. A multiple platform approach is crucial for both planning for potential loss of an observing system and avoiding unknown biases in climate monitoring. This approach considers the global, near-global, and regional coverage of observations. 13

14 Current analysis indicates shortfalls in ECV measurements for: Atmospheric o global surface wind speed and direction o multi-regional Earth radiation budget o cloud properties Oceanic o global, or near-global, surface and sub-surface currents o carbon dioxide partial pressure o nutrients o carbon o ocean tracers and phytoplankton o multi-regional or regional ocean colour Terrestrial o global or near-global water use o ground water and permafrost o biomass at all scales Figure 6: Assessment of status of space sensors for monitoring ocean related ECVs. GCOS has established guidelines for generation of ECV datasets and products, with particular attention to description and documentation of datasets, their access, and their long-term stability including calibration/validation, and coverage. 14

15 The GCOS Progress Report identified improved climate observation capabilities in Developed Countries, albeit with limited progress in resolving financial issues related to longterm continuity. Space agencies have improved mission continuity and capability and are increasingly meeting climate needs. By contrast, in developing countries, limited progress has been achieved on in situ observation systems, with decline in some regions, and capacity building support remains low in relation to needs. Recognizing that gaps persist, a continued engagement is needed for coordinated implementation and long-term continuity of observations. Consequently, the proposed GCOS Action Plan includes identification of gaps in observations of ECVs (gaps in terms of time, regions, and other factors). Use of this information for future planning and coordination is important to ensure long-term, high-quality, calibrated, uninterrupted observations (for space and for in situ systems). Planning of redundant systems to anticipate problems in satellite observations, and the setting of priorities for key reference observing systems are important for a robust Earth observation system of systems. WMO presented the WMO approach for its Global Observing System (GOS) that is based on a long-term vision and requirements for a coordinated observation capacity. The GOS is referenced in implementation plans by space agency programmes. Relevant space programmes, including instruments, are assessed in terms of product performance and analysis of compliance with regard to the requirements, leading to a gap analysis. An assessment of space-based sensor capacity to monitor ECVs from 1975 through 2025 shows gaps beyond 2020 (Figure 7). Figure 7: Gap analysis for set of essential climate variables through This approach is supported by a Rolling Review of Requirements process, including databases of user requirements (per application area) and observing capabilities (space and surface). The user 15

16 requirements are defined through 14 WMO application areas and nine partner programmes. They lead to more than 120 geophysical parameters, with 632 requirements recorded. The process includes a critical review of requirements satisfaction relative to current and planned capabilities for each application area. Statements of guidance for each application area, and a vision of the GOS, are assimilated in an Implementation Plan. The WMO Dossier on the space-based global observing systems (GOS) was first issued in May 2004 and is updated three times per year, with major updating every year. The January 2010 issue is accessible at It includes five hyperlinked volumes on (1) Satellite Programme Description (2) Earth Observation Satellites and their Instruments (3) Gap Analysis in the Space-based Component of GOS (4) Estimated Performance of Products from Typical Satellite Instruments (5) Compliance Analysis of Potential Product Performances with User Requirements. The WMO downstream approach is based on the Sustained Coordinated Processing of Environmental satellite data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM) for ensuring continuity and international coordination for global product generation and availability. The SCOPE-CM network includes satellite operators and other stakeholders such as GEO, GCOS, CEOS, GSICS and WCRP. SCOPE-CM has implemented a number of pilot projects using geostationary satellite data as well as AVHRR and SSM/I for deriving atmospheric and land surface parameters. WMO requires satellite, airborne and in situ data to better monitor, characterize, and predict changes in the Earth system. While in situ measurements will remain essential and largely measure what cannot be measured from satellites, Earth-observation satellites are the only realistic means to obtain the necessary global coverage and, with well-calibrated measurements, will become the single most important contribution to global observations for climate change (Figure 8). The way forward must leverage what we have and promote increased coordination and cooperation considering the different perspectives of relevant stakeholders. 16

17 Figure 8: WMO compilation of operational satellite missions to deliver Earth observations. CEOS presented its systems approach to climate monitoring, based on strategy for collaboration and action (requirements, capabilities, gap assessments, agency action) and on system taxonomy for the organization of information on sensors for climate monitoring. The approach links instruments and missions to societally-relevant applications through information products and services and to decision making tools. The CEOS added value lies in collaboration and integration amongst agencies to augment individual agency assessments. The CEOS tools (Figure 9) for supporting this approach include the CEOS Systems Database (ceos.sysdb.com), which integrates the CEOS Systems Engineering Office (SEO) data and assessments with the European Space Agency (ESA) Mission, Instrument and Measurement (MIM) Database and the WMO GOS Dossier. Additional information on CEOS tools is provided in Appendix C. 17

18 CEOS Space Sensor Databases CEOS Systems Database CEOS MIM Database Requirements Timelines 3 Figure 8: CEOS web tool serving community with information on requirements, sensors, and gaps. The recently established CEOS Climate Advisory Group is expected to focus on improving the coordination of space agency efforts toward Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDR) and ECVs to include: (i) development of a CEOS database for global space agency contributions to climate ECVs, (ii) mature inventories of space-based measurements in the SEO Systems Database and the MIM Database, with accuracy improvement of agency data and updated connections to ECV parameters, and (iii) an update of space-based measurement requirements for climate ECVs, considering current sources such as WMO, GCOS, WCRP, EUM, and IGBP groups, and new sources, which may include IPCC, GEO Societal Benefit Areas, and UNFCCC. Relationships and functions of the information flow reviewed by the Climate Advisory Group highlight the interdisciplinary nature of the coordination (Figure 9). As observation data feed the Earth system and climate models to generate information supporting decision-making processes, it is essential to streamline the processing and analysis of long-term time series of observations. The ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) contributes to this endeavour by exploiting long-term global Earth Observation archives established over the 18

19 last thirty years, as a significant and timely contribution to the ECV databases required by UNFCCC. Regarding the management of climate activities in CEOS, the profile of space agencies in climate should be raised, through the (i) production of climate data for GCOS, (ii) response to new GCOS reports, and (iii) need to redefine the relation to IPCC and UNFCCC. Figure 9: Functional flow of data and information amongst key segments needed for integrated solutions. What are the gaps - in terms of current and future availability of space observation capacities, and related programmatic issues (including international coordination) and technical issues? Contributions from WCRP, COSPAR, IOC, FAO and UNESCO The World Climate Research Programme, Committee on Space Research, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Food and Agriculture Organization, and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization identify applications for, and gaps in, current and future Earth observation capabilities. The following discussions on recognized gaps in current and future capabilities contributed to the set of findings: 19

20 WCRP identified a series of key steps linked to the climate research needs. Figure 10: Global inventory and location of ocean monitoring assets. A first step is linked to observation of the climate system, where the major challenge lies in sustaining long-term observations versus new ones, e.g., ocean salinity, deep ocean temperatures, biogeochemical variables, polar regions (as depicted in Figure 10 for ocean monitoring assets). A second step is to address scientific uncertainties, including: Sea-level change where explanations are needed about the current change, which is near the upper bound of the IPCC projections and accelerating, and about respective cryospheric vs. terrestrial and ocean contributions; Ice sheet stability, where uncertainties and their impact on sea level represent a major concern for hundreds of millions of people! Global carbon cycle, and in particular understanding the role of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle and climate system. The third key step consists of developing and testing next generation climate models, in confronting them with observations and building confidence. These models should address various time (with focus on seasonal to decadal prediction and attribution) and space (global to regional prediction) scales. These developments should also improve Earth system models (physics, biogeochemistry, and biology of the atmosphere, oceans, land, cryosphere and essential elements of human dimensions). Risk management and adaptation approaches also require advances in seasonal, decadal and regional climate prediction. 20

21 The fourth key step consists in establishing a Climate Prediction Project, in particular to improve the representation of small scale features in climate models, with associated need for powerful enough computers to simulate years of Earth s climate in days of computer time. The fifth key step is to conduct Model Intercomparison (e.g., CMIP5), and develop model Performance Metrics, in line with the statement of the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction (Reading, UK, 6-9 May 2008). The sixth key step is to assemble, quality-check, reprocess, and reanalyze datasets, for underpinning research and the development of comprehensive Earth system models. Capacities for achieving this activity, where international cooperation is needed, include computing infrastructure for data handling and processing as well as skilled personnel. Other key steps include: Strengthening our Climate Information System in view of more efficient delivery information to users; Training the next generation of leaders through training seminars to increase regional seasonal forecasting capabilities, through easy access for non-experts (e.g., regional assessments by African users to develop Africa Climate Atlas), and taking advantage of WCRP capacity building training seminar on using CMIP3-data archive (with ICTP and START). In summary, WCRP research priorities include: Quantify and reduce of uncertainties in climate change information and knowledge; Focus on regional and interannual to seasonal, and decadal climate prediction and projection; Address needs for adaptation planning, mitigation strategies, and managing risks of climate variability and change; Promote and enable of timely, reliable, and easy access to available climate information and knowledge. COSPAR addresses climate issues through its Commission A on Space Studies of the Earth s surface, meteorology and climate and is contributing to the GEO process as a Participating Organization and co-chair of the GEO Science and Technology Committee. The key messages from COSPAR include the need for establishment of a global, comprehensive and sustained Earth observing system from space. For this purpose, a strategy, based on international cooperation, should be established, especially for addressing the observation data continuity through appropriate and sustainable programmatic approaches and tools. This strategic approach should be conveyed at the political level, with argumentation promoting the value of climate science against climate-skepticism. GEO contributes to the establishment of a strategy, but much work is needed between now and the critical milestone for the long-term planning of Earth observation capacities, to get the 21

22 full benefit of the GEO mechanism. Data quality issues have strong consequences for climate and should be prioritized. Earth observation data should be openly accessible, at the minimum cost and with the minimum delay. Capacity building, especially for developing countries, should be integrated in this strategy. IOC serves as the focal point in the UN system for ocean observations, ocean science, ocean services and data exchange. Moreover, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea considers IOC to be the competent international organization for marine science. Even though the IOC gathers 136 Member States, fewer than 20 countries provide the vast majority of space-based and in situ open-ocean observations for climate. Sea level - global indicator - regional variability CLS/LEGOS/CNES Figure 11: Global dataset of regional variability of sea level rise from IOC has identified four high level objectives and related major actions: prevention and reduction of the impacts of natural hazards, through sustained monitoring and warning systems as well as community education; mitigation of the impacts of and adaptation to climate change and variability, which requires increasing the scientific understanding, improving the climate prediction through observations and process studies and increasing the understanding of the climate change impacts on the marine environment; safeguarding of ocean ecosystem health, through UN Regular Process for Global reporting and Assessment of the State of the Marine Environment, research and 22

23 monitoring for prevention of marine environment and capacity-building focused on regional needs; management procedures and policies leading to the sustainability of coastal and ocean environment and resources, with enhancing the regional cooperation and capacitybuilding, science for ocean and coastal resource management and decision-support tools. IOC recognizes that space-based observations support climate projections, monitoring, and research. The main associated requirements include: continued calibration/validation, quantitative estimation of uncertainty, continuity; extending availability of data products especially of new entrants; increasing capacity for scientific research; research and application on how the scientific information can best be used in the decision-making processes. It should be realized that the current period represents a golden age for satellite ocean observations and that the density of in situ networks is slowly but continuously growing. New products (e.g., on ocean waves and surface currents) are currently delivered, and new measurement capabilities (e.g., wind scatterometer, swath altimetry, signals of opportunity from global navigation satellite systems (GPS), improvements in ocean spectral color measurements and links to ocean ecosystems, time-variable gravity) are, or will soon be, available. However, this capacity risks decline within five years if no firm plans about space observation continuity are established. The key challenges are related to translating the scientific capability and information into societal- and policy-relevant information, for all IOC Member States. A key global indicator of climate change is sea level rise. Figure 11 shows variability based on measurement from and Figure 12 shows areas societal impacts through coastal inundation affected by sea level rise. Figure 12: Areas around the world with substantial risk of coastal inundation resulting from sea level rise. 23

24 FAO addresses the demand for observations and monitoring in the context of free, frequent and standardized data rather than measurements. The UN-REDD (Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) programme addresses emissions linked to deforestation, forest degradation, conservation, sustainable management and enhancement. The national reporting (including measuring and verification) must have high accuracy and known precision. National reporting is currently based on expensive measurements collected through sampling approaches, with no established need for full cover data. In-country implementation must have complete coverage of designated areas for defining payments and enforcement. Related observations do not require high spatial accuracy and can be served by low cost solutions where remote sensing data could be an appropriate tool under conditions of robustness and transparency. Relationships between National Report, In- Country Reporting and Emissions and Safeguards are provided in Figure 13. Figure 13: Characteristics of monitoring requirements for REDD+. Consequently, for REDD+, the emphasis is to put: Less focus on measurements where space observations should have an important but subsidiary role; More focus on free, frequent, and standardized data for effective REDD+ implementation; use the potential strengths of frequent, full-cover and low-cost data. Global remote sensing data are needed for detecting change (activity data). They should be free (part of infrastructure, accessible to all), frequent (drawn from available satellite systems) and standard (ready-to-use deliverables). The framework for data now launched by FAO is designed for Global Forest Resources Assessments. It can also serve national monitoring and is included in UN-REDD Country Programmes. 24

25 UNESCO considers climate change as a topic under Education for Sustainable Development, takes care of cultural and biological diversity as well as cultural heritage, and addresses the ethical dimensions of climate change. For this purpose, UNESCO has established partnerships with space agencies, for example through the Open Initiative (From Space to Place) to assist developing countries at UNESCO World Heritage sites (e.g., coral reefs, glaciers, cultural sites). UNESCO and its space partners are also associated with activities concerning tropical forest heritage (state of conservation, links with REDD and REDD+). They also address education on Earth observation and climate change. UNESCO has compiled case studies of climate impact on World Heritage Sites (Figure 14). Figure 14: UNESCO Report on Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage sites. Regarding space observation missions for climate variable monitoring, UNESCO emphasizes that the observation gaps are difficult to understand by politicians due to the existence of many observing systems and recommends elaborating and conveying digested, ready-to-use and easyto-understand messages. The workshop agenda, along with each of the briefings from the workshop, are accessible at 25

26 Discussion on Gap Assessment While the contributions of Earth observations to our current understanding of climate change have been substantial and critical, the capability to comprehensively observe Earth from space is jeopardized by delays, and lack of funding, for many critical satellite monitoring missions. It is also threatened by the lack of an internationally recognized plan for an integrated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observation system that would address present and potential gaps in the current system and a vision for future generations of Earth observation systems through 2050 and beyond. This is critically important because evolving our knowledge of longterm climate trends requires sustained observations over decades. Building on a reliable Earth observation capacity relies heavily on the availability of inter-calibrated long-term data records, which can only be maintained if subsequent generations of satellite sensors overlap with their predecessors. In 2008, CEOS reported that while space-based systems have successfully demonstrated capability in measuring key Earth environmental variables, the current capabilities do not adequately monitor all required parameters nor fully meet the quality and standards required by the user community. In addition, the U.S. National Research Council and the Center for Strategic and International Studies have highlighted concerns of data gaps from lapsed satellite observing programs that are in stark contrast to the recognized needs for space-based information by the world s users. Several specific challenges have been identified relative to sustaining high quality, continuous, and comprehensive Earth observation data. Many Earth observation satellites are developed for scientific or experimental purposes, and transition of these systems into an operational phase is critical to assuring long-term data continuity. Europe has committed to the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES/Kopernikus) program, an operational Earth observation constellation to function over the next 25 years ( While the U.S. Government commissioned the National Research Council to conduct an Earth Science and Applications Decadal Survey in 2007, it does not have a national plan for a set of research and operational missions over the period through The current period is critical for both ensuring the continuity of currently active space missions, but also for planning through an international coordination the future space missions needed for a sustainable monitoring of the Earth system and its climate and for deriving the analyses of its state and evolution. Workshop Key Findings (and Reaffirmations) 1. A global climate monitoring strategy is needed. Climate change effects and impacts are at the forefront of the international political agenda. Due to the commonly agreed upon findings concerning the current state and trends of the Earth climate, political authorities are already defining adaptation and mitigation strategies and 26

27 implementation measures. There is value in political and public awareness inclusion of monitoring climate variables, through observation infrastructure and related information services. It is of prime importance that the various international agencies and bodies involved in climate change monitoring define together a shared strategic approach for climate monitoring and convey it to the political authorities. A global, common strategy would minimize unnecessary duplications, as well as gaps, in Earth observation capacities. This strategy should stimulate international cooperation and partnerships, especially regarding the coordination and integration of Earth observation capacities. Elements of this strategy already exist, for example through the GCOS Implementation Plan and the CEOS Response to it, and should be used as common basis. So far, the approach to the actual implementation of the GCOS Plan has been ad hoc, as demonstrated by the difficulty to ensure the continuity of several key Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). The messages included in this strategy should be simple and understandable. In particular, ambiguous messages about the availability of many satellites and the lack of essential data should be avoided or explained. Earth observation capacities should be considered as a whole and integrate space- and ground-based systems which have an equivalent importance for monitoring purposes. Presenting an accurate global Earth monitoring capacity assessment will reinforce the need for and contribution of space and in situ observation capacities. This common vision should clearly describe the roles and mandates of the various international bodies, including their links and relationships, and avoid complicating the structure and description of the climate monitoring community. 2. Requirements for space observation should be stabilized and managed. Demand and requirements for climate observation and monitoring exist and are well described. As requirements are incrementally updated through an open and evolving requirement process, there is value in taking care to maintain stable requirements to ensure data continuity. IPCC and UNFCCC engagement through WMO and GCOS enables linkages of policy needs to climate science and observations. UNFCCC requirements represent drivers for the use of space capacities. Needs under UNFCCC that can be supported by observations from space include solid and up-to-date scientific information, including addressing key uncertainties and delivering information suitable for decision-makers. Special consideration needs to be given to the needs of developing countries in this area. In line with the GCOS implementation plan, specific attention should be given to requirements for climate adaptation, including downscaling of climate models to the regional level and the identification of specific variables to enable adaptation planning. An appropriate balance should be found between research and operational needs, both of which share an interest in free, frequent, and useful (standardized and robust) data. The requirements 27

28 need to address the connection with societal applications, including overlaps with other application areas; e.g., environmental assessment and management. 3. Leveraging existing and planned assets and resources is essential. The past and current space observation capabilities, as well as existing resources for collecting, processing and managing their data and derived information, represent the main basis for the climate monitoring analysis and derivation of current state and trends of climate variables. Priority should be given to the best possible use of these assets to derive climate relevant information. In particular, the processing and analysis of existing Earth observation archives should be strengthened. 4. Sustainability of Earth space-based observation capacities is necessary. Climate monitoring is based on the availability of time series of observations, covering at least several decades. Continuity of consistent, calibrated observations, especially for the ECVs, is the major requirement for climate monitoring. The continuity of contiguous measurements (in time and space) should be considered in this approach. Due to the long-term nature of the timeframe associated with decision-making processes for resourcing future space observation systems and the necessary international coordination for implementing complementary capacities, and in order to minimize redundancy in Earth observation capacities, plans for ensuring the continuity of space observation should be defined on time horizons of years (and beyond when practical). This approach should build on the successful model of meteorology and especially on its international coordination framework. 5. Data quality and standardization must be achieved globally. Monitoring of climate change, and especially of ECVs, is based on the processing and analysis of long time series of observations collected from different observation instruments with variable characteristics. Calibration and inter-calibration of time series of observation data and validation of their derived products is an absolute pre-requisite for the consistency and efficient use of observation time series data. Moreover, the time series consistency should be achieved for ECV sets, going beyond the processing and analysis of individual ECVs. For this purpose, and when possible, the reanalysis of time series ECV sets is needed and should be encouraged. 28

29 The requirements for climate monitoring include the provision of suitable information derived in particular from space observations with consideration that this information could be used for decision-making processes. It is critical that decision-makers have high confidence in the integrity of this information and in its origin especially when needed to be reach consensus. For this purpose, traceability indicators describing the information and its origin in terms of requirements, data, processing methods and models, should be defined, and benchmarking approaches should be applied. In addition, due to the uncertainties of processing methods and models, which could impact the risk assessment approaches linked to decision-making, the inter-comparison of data, products and models outputs should be encouraged. Specific mechanisms, based on international coordination involving GCOS, WCRP, CEOS, space agencies and relevant stakeholders, should be defined and implemented for this purpose. 6. Data access must be globally accommodated. The basis of decision-making linked to climate issues is to reach consensus on the current state of Earth s environment and on its past and possible / potential evolution. This consensus should be reached through the sharing of data and information and related expertise, enabling the various stakeholders to assess by themselves the relevance and accuracy of the information provided. This transparency should be stimulated through data access policies according to the GEOSS Data Sharing Principles and, taking into account relevant international instruments and national policies, data should be fully and openly accessible at the minimum cost and available with the minimum time delay. Moreover, data for research and education should be provided free of charge or for the cost of reproduction. 7. Dialogue with scientific communities must be a constant through all aspects of climate monitoring. The scientific community is a major player in climate change monitoring, especially for (i) the understanding of processes and phenomena, which will drive the observational requirements, (ii) the design and assessment of methods for processing and analyzing the observation data, and (iii) the expertise on information accuracy and limitations. The existing and constant dialogue with the relevant scientific communities should be maintained, in particular through the coordination of GEO, IPCC and GCOS, and in the form of, for example, regular workshops. 8. Education and capacity building needs are essential elements of the climate change strategy. 29

30 Awareness of the value of Earth observations on the part of all stakeholders involved in climate issues, including political authorities, environment managers, public services, industry and scientists, should be broadened and improved. For this purpose, education and capacity building activities represent an important part of the overall strategy for climate monitoring. Specific emphasis should be put on the education of future decision makers and leading scientists as well as on training on the application of Earth observation products to monitor and adapt to climate change, with focus on developing countries. Acknowledgements The IAF Subcommittee for Global Earth Observation System of Systems gratefully recognizes each of the participating organizations and their representatives for their insightful contributions to the climate monitoring enterprise and for sharing their knowledge and skill in the Workshop on Space Sensors for Climate Monitoring. Appendices 30

31 Appendix I WORKSHOP ON SPACE SENSORS FOR CLIMATE MONITORING ORGANIZED BY Subcommittee on the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) International Astronautical Federation (In cooperation with Participants) 23 MARCH 2010 UNESCO, Paris France, Room 8 AGENDA 9h00 Coffee and Registration 9h30 Welcome and Opening Remarks IAF President Berndt Feuerbacher 9h35 Workshop Overview and Objectives IAF GEOSS Subcommittee Ron Birk 9h45 Requirements for Space-based Measurements For Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Michael Schlesinger 10h15 Importance of Earth Observations for Climate Change United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Rocio Lichte 10h45 Coordination to Assure Global Capacity Group on Earth Observations Michael Tanner 11h15 Coffee Break 11h30 Panel 1: Inventories of Space Sensors and Measurements Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Caroline Richter Barbara Ryan Brian Killough, Pascal Lecomte 13h30 Lunch 14h15 15h30 16h30 Panel 2: Demand for Observations/Information World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Ghassem Asrar Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Jean Louis Fellous Intergovernmental Ocean Commission (IOC) Albert Fischer Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Peter Holmgren United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) M. Hernandez Roundtable Discussion: Preliminary Assessments of Capabilities to Meet Target Variables Coffee Break 16h45 Plans for Publishing Report IAF GEOSS Subcommittee 31

32 17h30 Adjourn Appendix II Community of Organizations Engaged with Space-Based Sensors Space-based Earth observation sensors are widely recognized for their value in understanding the changing climate and are increasingly being used by organizations established to monitor climate change and address its impacts. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for understanding climate change, its potential impacts, and operations for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC has released four Assessment Reports. The first two provided a basis for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol in IPCC was recognized by a Nobel Peace Prize in The 4 th Assessment Report stated that a number of widely discussed uncertainties had been resolved by Earth observations and climate models, highlighting that the temperature record of the lower atmosphere from satellite measurements had been reconciled with the ground-based record. The report also identified key remaining uncertainties involving roles played by clouds, cryosphere, oceans, deforestation and other landuse changes, and linking of climate and biogeochemical cycles. The IPCC is now working on its 5th Assessment Report, and scientists have determined that the most important quantity characterizing the seriousness of human-caused climate change is climate sensitivity the change in global-average equilibrium near-surface temperature caused by a doubling of the pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration. Water vapour changes, which represent the largest feedback affecting climate sensitivity, are now better understood. Cloud feedbacks, however, remain the largest source of uncertainty. To properly simulate the feedback effects of clouds, changes in the three-dimensional structure and radiative properties of clouds must be simulated. Current global climate models and computer capabilities are not sufficient to accurately accomplish this objective. Scientists have indicated that it would be very helpful to determine the magnitude of cloud feedback from space-based observations and believe that this may be done using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program which has cloud observations from 1983 to the present. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims include stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Earth observations from space make a significant contribution to monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and carbon levels and other climate relevant parameters. This information provides important information to the UNFCC including an improved understanding of past, current and future climate and to climate change decision-making in the areas of adaptation, mitigation, and in the context of enhancing the implementation of the Convention. The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is a voluntary partnership of 81 countries, the European Commission and 58 international professional organizations working together to establish a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOSS represents a 32

33 distributed system of systems, enabling improved coordination of strategies and observation systems, linking all platforms (including satellite, aircraft and in situ), facilitating exchange of data and information, identifying gaps in global capacity, improving the ability of decisionmakers to address pressing policy issues and enabling solutions for societal benefits. Climate is one of the GEOSS nine societal benefit areas (along with agriculture, biodiversity, health, energy, ecosystems, weather, water and disasters) agreed to at the Ministerial level. The climate societal benefit area encompasses the continuum from understanding, assessment, prediction, mitigation and adaptation associated with climate variability and change. GEOSS supports the development of observational capabilities for the Essential Climate Variables identified by the international scientific community affiliated with Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) as necessary to understand climate change. GEOSS supports development of a long-term strategy to improve observation capability, data assimilation, and modeling. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 by the World Meteorological Organization, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, the United Nations Environment Programme, and the International Council for Science to ensure that the observations and information needed to address climate-related issues are obtained and made available to all potential users. GCOS provides comprehensive information on the total climate system, involving a multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties, and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, cryospheric and terrestrial processes. GCOS states in its 2004 implementation plan that a detailed global climate record for the future critically depends upon a major satellite component. GCOS is recognized as the Climate Observing component of GEOSS. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) promotes international cooperation in the establishment of networks for making meteorological, climatological, hydrological and geophysical observations. The development of a Global Observing System (GOS) over the last 60 years has contributed immensely to meteorological (weather and climate) observations, research and forecasting. It is recognized that satellite, airborne and in situ data are required to effectively monitor, characterize and predict changes in the Earth system. While in situ measurements are essential and measure what cannot be measured from satellites, Earth observation satellites are the only realistic means to obtain the necessary global coverage. With well-calibrated measurements, space-based sensors are becoming a critical contribution to global observations for climate. WMO s systematic approach for requirements gathering cuts across many application areas and supports weather, water and climate programmes and needs. The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) assesses, in collaboration with GCOS, the capacity of current and planned space systems for climate monitoring. CEOS stated that space-based sensors contribute to 26 of the 44 Essential Climate Variables in a 2008 report commissioned by the UNFCCC. CEOS has been given the responsibility to coordinate the implementation of the satellite components of GCOS and has established a CEOS Climate Advisory Group to implement this responsibility. Currently 28 space agencies, along with 20 other nations and international organizations, participate in CEOS planning and activities. CEOS is recognized as the space arm of GEOSS. 33

34 The scientific community is a major player in climate change monitoring for understanding processes and phenomena. They drive observation requirements and design and assessment of methods for processing and analyzing observation data. They also provide expertise on information accuracy and limitations. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) organizes large-scale observational and modeling projects to determine the predictability of climate and the effect of human activities on climate and acknowledges a key challenge related to climate research needs is sustaining longterm observations versus deploying new observation capabilities. It has identified key scientific uncertainties that need to be addressed including sea-level change, ice sheet stability, and the global carbon cycle. The next generation climate models need to be developed and tested against observations and need to drive to higher spatial resolution necessary for regional to local forecasts. The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) promotes scientific research and collaboration in space on an international level. COSPAR calls for a global, comprehensive and sustained Earth observing system from space to provide accurate time-series of measurements of long-term trends. There is a two-way relationship between research and observation: research is needed in order to fully benefit from observations; global observations are needed to better understand climate. Open data access at minimum cost and with minimum delay is a key factor. A strategy based on international cooperation should be established, especially for addressing observation data continuity through appropriate and sustainable programmatic approaches and tools. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) monitors the ocean through the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and promotes international cooperation in researching and protecting the ocean. IOC has established new products for ocean waves and surface currents, along with new measurement capabilities for scatterometer wind capabilities, swath altimetry, improvements in ocean spectral color measurements and time-variable gravity. Stating that the current period represents a golden age for satellite ocean observations, the IOC warns that this capacity is at risk of decline within five years if no firm plans for continuity of space-based Earth observations are established. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) helps developing countries and countries in transition modernize and improve agriculture, forestry and fisheries practices. FAO states that global remote sensing data are needed for detecting change. In order to achieve its objectives, FAO says the data should be free (part of infrastructure, accessible to all), frequent (drawn from available satellite systems) and useful (standardized deliverables, ready-to-use). The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) climaterelated efforts include education on Earth observation and climate change, cultural and biological diversity, and the preservation of cultural heritage sites. UNESCO utilizes climate observing system data for many cultural and ecosystem projects. They note that the complexity of the climate system, and existence of many different observing systems, makes it difficult for policymakers to understand that not all of the needed observations are available, and that a lack of plans for sustaining observations can lead to unwelcome gaps in the future. 34

35 Appendix III A Systematic Climate Measurement Analysis Approach To effectively design a climate observing system that maximizes societal benefit, the climate observing requirements must be well understood and compared against available and planned space assets. When gaps are realized, effective international partnerships are key to closing the gaps. The CEOS SEO has undertaken a systems process in identifying these gaps utilizing the steps identified in Figure A-1. On the left is a taxonomy implemented in the online CEOS Systems Database ( that is comprised of an inventory of current and planned international space missions and associated instruments [1]. This inventory is utilized as part of a strategy for effective gap assessment that will stimulate international agency collaboration. Figure A-1. A systems taxonomy for organization that feeds a strategic plan for collaboration. The measurements in the CEOS Systems Database are linked to related essential climate variables (ECVs) and societal benefit areas (SBAs) to permit various online analyses like the one shown in Figure 2 [2,3]. Figure A-2 depicts a timeline of missions that support climate measurements. Caution is urged in utilizing this level of measurement detail to determine mission gaps or overlaps. As shown below in the example CO 2 gap analysis, measurement features, such as the spatial and vertical resolution, the observing cycle, and the atmospheric layer where the measurement is made are critical parameters in determining accurate mission gaps. 35

36 Figure A-2. A CEOS Systems Database screen capture showing a mission timeline analysis for Climate CBA measurements. Atmospheric CO 2 Gap Assessment Example The process outlined in Figure A-1 was utilized to complete a detailed gap assessment for the atmospheric composition of CO 2. The requirements are contained in the CEOS Systems Database for numerous weather and climate related measurements, and the specific CO 2 requirements are shown below in Figure A-3 [4]. Figure A-3. Atmospheric CO 2 requirements (source is the WMO GOS Dossier). The detailed instrument capabilities are shown in Figure A-4 for the instruments that measure atmospheric CO 2. The details shown here allow for comparison against requirements and provide information for collaborative opportunities such as ride-sharing. 36

37 Figure A-4. This information was retrieved from extensive web searches. It is hoped that in the future, this level of detail will exist in the Systems Database for all measurements so this process can be automated. As shown in Figure A-2, general timelines are available in the CEOS Systems Database that identify mission counts by year for each general type of measurement. However, caution is urged in using these timelines as an indication of mission need because of the lack of measurement specificity. For example, the CO 2 mission timeline is shown Figure A-5 indicates that an abundance of missions exist that satisfy the need for atmospheric CO 2 measurements. However, the detailed analysis in Figure A-6 breaks down the measurement timelines into atmospheric layers and instrument type revealing a gap in lower tropospheric CO 2 measurements between the years 2017 and If calibration and validation requirements were also taken into account, the gap may actually be larger. Figure A-5. Timelines from mission lists do not accurately reflect gaps. 37

38 Figure A-6. Detailed timeline analysis takes into consideration the instrument type and atmospheric layer. The CO 2 analysis described above is being utilized by agency leaders to determine how best to meet the critical need for sustained lower tropospheric CO 2 measurements. International coordination in managing and resolving key measurement gaps as they are identified is critical once the gap assessment tools are in place. It should also be noted that more mission concepts have been identified since the completion of this analysis and, with proper international coordination, it is possible that the lower troposphere gap can be minimized or eliminated for the coming 15 years. The Future of the CEOS Systems Database The development of measurement requirements is essential for mission gap assessment, and it is a complex and iterative process that bridges multiple communities and requires maintenance as needs change. Requirements are derived from various sources, including international agencies and organizations, users of space measurement products, and modelers that utilize the instrument measurements directly. Climate requirements are documented by GCOS but are in the infancy phase when compared to weather requirements that are well established through published documentation from various organizations such as WMO, EUMETSAT, etc. Other societal benefit areas, such as Energy and Health, have no written requirements at all and require a commitment of resources to accomplish the task. As these requirements evolve, they will be captured in the CEOS Systems Database for gap analyses. Documenting the instrument parameters is a less arduous process thanks to ESA's Mission, Instrument and Measurements (MIM) database and the Earth Observation (EO) Handbook. Even so, much of the current data lack detail and accuracy, and the need for agencies to respond with correct information, especially in the identification of the measurements that each instrument makes, is critical. In addition, more details regarding specific instrument measurements are necessary. For instance, measurement accuracy and spatial, vertical, and temporal resolution are currently lacking. Because of the lack of detailed instrument information, detailed and accurate online gap assessments are currently not possible, except for atmospheric CO 2. The instrument details for atmospheric CO 2 were compiled and included in the CEOS 38

39 Systems Database as a pilot project for online gap assessments and the assessment is available online. In support of the CEOS Working Group on Calibration and Validation, the CEOS SEO developed a tool called COVE ( which is a browser-based tool that leverages Google-Earth to display satellite sensor coverage areas for the identification of coincidence scene locations as shown in Figure A-7. The SEO plans to link this tool to the CEOS Systems Database to allow for easy display of measurement ground spatial coverage. Currently COVE s primary features include coverage maps for 13 mission-instrument combinations, multiple viewports (up to 4), coincidence data download into EXCEL-compatible format, and collaborative session capabilities. Future COVE enhancements will consider adding new mission-instrument combinations, adding selectable points or regions for coincident overpass calculations, modeling instrument field-of-regard and pointing range, including solar data (inclination, zenith, day or night), and other useful features for specific applications. Figure A-7. A screen shot of the COVE coincident imaging tool showing ground tracks for GOSAT and Envisat. Space measurements are typically utilized in models and online products that provide a service to decision makers in one of nine societal benefit areas. The ultimate goal with the CEOS Systems Database is to generate online automated gap assessments against requirements, models, or products. For climate this process has begun, but is not yet available online. Future content will include global climate model types and their interfaces to measurements and decision maker services, such as IPCC reports. This level of sophistication will take years, but its completion is imminent as CEOS members work together in enhancing and understanding the utilization of space-based measurements for societal benefit. [1] CEOS Earth Observation Handbook, [2] Global Earth Observation System of Systems GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan Reference Document, February