Energy Resources Status Check

Transcription

1 Slide 1 Energy Resources Status Check Eric Hittinger Rochester Institute of Technology I m here to give a review of the current energy landscape, the issues, and possible solutions (each with their own difficulties).

2 Slide 2 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016

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4 Slide 4 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016

5 Slide 5 Oil reserves-to-production ratio has actually increased over the last 30 years Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016

6 Slide 6 And we have thousands of years of coal US uses about a billion short tons per year. Conclusion: we have a lot of coal.

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9 Slide 9 But there are issues with fossil fuels: Extraction Local Emissions Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change

10 Slide 10 But there are issues with fossil fuels: Extraction Local Emissions Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change

11 Slide 11 Environmental effects of fossil fuels Image:

12 Slide 12 Environmental effects of fossil fuels Source: NASA earth observatory Also encouraging investment (low lease rates for public owned lands)

13 Slide 13 Environmental effects of fossil fuels Source: NASA earth observatory

14 Slide 14 Environmental effects of fossil fuels Source: Guang Niu/Getty Images, Airnow

15 Slide 15 Climate Change is a costly problem

16 Slide 16 However, it is very difficult to get action on Climate Change for a number of reasons 1. The direct effects on the US will (probably) be pretty small over the next 100+ years 16

17 Slide 17 Some parts of the U.S. could actually benefit from moderate warming, at least in the short run Agriculture and other climate-sensitive industries in the Northern states could benefit from longer growing, tourist seasons Crop agriculture becomes more productive Higher costs of AC more than offset by lower costs of heating Deaths from hotter summers more than offset by fewer winter deaths This size of these benefits are difficult to forecast, and tend to reverse in the longer run, as global warming continues But the presence of even temporary benefits lowers calculations of net costs

18 Slide 18 The unequal economic impact of climate change Climate-sensitive activities are a small part of GDP in most advanced industrial countries This limits the economic vulnerability of advanced countries to the impact of climate change It is the developing countries that face far more economic damage because they are more agricultural And economic development will tend to limit the impact of global warming on currently poor countries

19 Slide 19 However, it is very difficult to get action on Climate Change for a number of reasons 1. The direct effects on the US will (probably) be pretty small over the next 100+ years 2. Any spending we make to reduce future climate change will mostly benefit people that are in the distant future, far away physically, and culturally unlike us. 19

20 Slide 20 Even limited amounts of global climate change pose serious threats to some countries Small island nations like Tuvalu and the Maldives could literally be swamped by rising sea levels Bangladesh could face extensive loss of coastline and agricultural productivity as sea levels rise In general, poor countries in warmer latitudes face far more significant threats in terms of lost output and productivity than industrial nations in cooler latitudes A cruel paradox: those most threatened by climate change are least responsible for it and least able to do anything about it

21 Slide 21 However, it is very difficult to get action on Climate Change for a number of reasons 1. The direct effects on the US will (probably) be pretty small over the next 100+ years 2. Any spending we make to reduce future climate change will mostly benefit people that are in the distant future, far away physically, and culturally unlike us. 3. We will run out of atmosphere long before we run out of fossil fuels. 21

22 Slide 22 The world has 50 years of oil, 60 years of natural gas, and 110 years of coal in proven reserves Burning these reserves would increase global temperature by 8 degrees Celsius far above the 2 degree target set in Paris! 22

23 Slide 23 Even currently developed reserves put us past the 2 degree target Source: Oil Change International, The Sky s Limit, September 2016

24 Slide 24 However, it is very difficult to get action on Climate Change for a number of reasons 1. The direct effects on the US will (probably) be pretty small over the next 100+ years 2. Any spending we make to reduce future climate change will mostly benefit people that are in the distant future, far away physically, and culturally unlike us. 3. We will run out of atmosphere long before we run out of fossil fuels. 4. Whatever we do will cost a lot of money. 24

25 Slide 25 For a market-based policy (like cap-andtrade or a carbon tax) to be effective, it must be expensive enough to motivate changes in behavior. Image: s.com/?page_id=

26 Slide 26 However, it is very difficult to get action on Climate Change for a number of reasons 1. The direct effects on the US will (probably) be pretty small over the next 100+ years 2. Any spending we make to reduce future climate change will mostly benefit people that are in the distant future, far away physically, and culturally unlike us. 3. We will run out of atmosphere long before we run out of fossil fuels. 4. Whatever we do will cost a lot of money. 5. It is challenging to agree internationally on how the effort should be divided. 26

27 Slide 27 Historical contributions to GHG concentrations tell a clear story

28 Slide 28 Developing countries see growth in energy consumption as a critical element of economic development The Developing country perspective: You Westerners grew rich while pouring CO2 into the air. And now, as we begin to develop, you want to take away the only means by which we can improve the lives of our people? We will develop first, worry about climate change later You want to save the earth? Reduce your own GDP!

29 Slide 29 But the developing country contribution to the global warming problem is rising Developing/transition country emissions already exceed Annex I country emissions Developing/transition country contributions to total atmospheric CO 2 concentrations will exceed those of Annex I countries by 2040 And the damage sustained by developing countries due to global warming is likely to be far higher than that sustained by industrialized countries in the temperate zones

30 Slide 30 The Good News: We have solutions! Natural gas Nuclear Power Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy The Bad News: They all have difficulties

31 Slide 31 Natural Gas: a bridge fuel?

32 Slide 32 In 2015, energy-related CO 2 emissions were 12% lower than they were in 2005 This is primarily due to natural gas replacing coal However, natural gas still has emissions and cannot get us to zero And natural gas extraction (by hydrofracking) has risks and isn t popular with the public

33 Slide 33 Nuclear Power: helps a lot, but only if we stop getting rid of it Source: US Energy Information Administration

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36 Slide 36 Energy Efficiency: cheap, easy, unpopular

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38 Slide 38 Wait, half of those reductions in CO2 have a negative cost? Yes there are lots of ways that we can save energy, save money, and reduce emissions through efficiency improvements The Efficiency Gap (dollar bills lying on the ground) If it really saves money, why don t we do it?

39 Slide 39 California has shown that you can have economic growth without additional energy demand

40 Slide 40 Renewable Energy: promise for the future? Renewable energy has no direct emissions and costs have been rapidly declining. However, it is still too expensive relative to traditional technology, and both wind/solar have variability issues. Wind/solar will likely soon be cheaper (hopefully), but we still have a long road of adoption/deployment.

41 Slide 41 Even out to 2040, renewables are seen as merely competitive Coal + Natural Gas Wind + Solar 41

42 Slide 42 Much of what we are building is renewable electricity

43 Slide 43 Wind + Solar are perceived as white knight technologies, rapidly being deployed But this isn t fast enough. Wind currently provides only 5% of US electricity and solar 0.5%, so a doubling only takes us to 10% after 25 years.

44 Slide 44 Non-hydro renewable energy has doubled three times in 18 years But it is only 2.8% of world energy! Even at this exponential pace, it would be 25 years before it reached 50%. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016

45 Slide 45 Source: Vaclav Smil, The Long Slow Rise of Solar and Wind Scientific American 310, (2014)

46 TWh / year Slide The difficult facts regarding renewable energy saving us Historic Projected New electricity demand (global Newgrowth global since electricity 2005) demand Global electricity demand New renewable electricity Renewable electricity production production New renewable electricity (global growth since 2005) production Data Source: IEA World Energy Outlook Year

47 Slide 47 Globally, new renewable energy won t even catch up with new demand until 2030, and can only start reducing non-renewable sources after that.

48 Slide 48 Globally, energy has some big challenges and changes ahead We need to come to firm agreement on global greenhouse gas emissions reductions. We (including the developing world) need to commit to leaving perfectly good fossil fuels in the ground. We need to shift electricity production to low- or zerocarbon technologies. We need to rapidly alter our transportation technologies. And we must do all of this faster than any historical energy transition.