Επενδύοντας στις Ανανεώσιμες Πηγές Ενέργειας. Δρ. Ιωάννης Τσιπουρίδης Πρόεδρος ΕΛΕΤΑΕΝ Εκδότης «ΑΝΕΜΟλόγια» Πρόεδρος R.E.D.

Transcription

1 Επενδύοντας στις Ανανεώσιμες Πηγές Ενέργειας Δρ. Ιωάννης Τσιπουρίδης Πρόεδρος ΕΛΕΤΑΕΝ Εκδότης «ΑΝΕΜΟλόγια» Πρόεδρος R.E.D. Pro Consultants Investing in Energy 2015 Αθήνα 13 Οκτωβρίου 2015

2 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

3 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

4 Is climate change really happening? The overwhelming majority of scientists (97%) agrees that : climate change is happening now and the root cause of climate change are human activities

5 The main scientific findings that led to this conclusion are: Rise of the average global temperature Sea level rise Snow cover decrease in the Northern hemisphere

6 And why? Because of the perennial relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and mean global temperature over hundreds thousand years

7 Is Climate change happening? 2000 to Climate change got a lot worse than expected Practically all scientists plead for immediate action The support for action mainly from Greenpeace WWF Science labs Some freak eco activists Now it includes: BLOOMBERG CITIGROUP THE GUARDIAN Major Universities, Big Corporations, Nations, Insurance bodies etc.

8 What s really warming the world?

9 What s really warming the world?

10 What s really warming the world?

11 What s really warming the world?

12 What s really warming the world?

13 What s really warming the world?

14 Global warming scenario

15 Global temperature rise and resulting disasters

16 The ultimate proof of failure: Global atmospheric CO2 concentration continuing to rise.

17 2015 The hottest year on record

18 Syrian civil war and the resulting refugee crisis hastened by climate change

19 Failure to act on climate change means an even bigger refugee crisis

20 Obama: Leaders not taking climate change seriously not fit to lead

21 Climate Change can no longer be ignored. The scientific evidence is overwhelming

22 An obvious question.

23 The question is, how fast can a zero-carbon based economy be established?

24 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

25 Fossil Fuel Reserves It has been estimated that there are over 861 billion tonnes of proven coal reserves worldwide. This means that there is enough coal to last us around 112 years at current rates of production. In contrast, proven oil and gas reserves are equivalent to around 46 and 54 years at current production levels.

26 Fossil Fuel Reserves

27 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

28 Fossil Fuel Reserves

29 In simple words if we consume the estimated reserves global temperature will rise by 5 ο C. To keep temperature rise below 2 ο C, 80% of estimated reserves MUST NOT be used.

30 This leads to a Trillion Dollar bubble.

31 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

32 No comments.

33 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

34 (1) Fossil fuels - External cost from environmental pollution Fossil fuel use has catastrophic environmental consequences along the chain of utilization, namely drilling/mining, transport, storage, burning. The environmental cost to the ecosystem is substantial. It is estimated that in the USA environmental pollution costs between dollar cents per KWh. This corresponds to 886 billion dollars or 6% of its GDP. If this figure is extrapolated on a global level, the total cost will be a staggering figure of trillions.

35 (2) Fossil fuels - External cost from public health damage The cost to public health and the deaths associated with the use of fossil fuels is enormous.. but it is not taken into account. In 279 major energy accidents from 1907 to 2007, people were killed and the property damage is estimated to 41 billion dollars According to World Health Organisation (WHO) atmospheric pollution associated with fossil fuel use is responsible for the death of 3 million people annually. Direct damage to health from fossil fuel use is estimated for the USA at 850 billion dollars for 2009 alone. Globally it runs in trillions.

36 (3) Fossil fuels - External cost from subsidies. To correct a widely believed myth: Fossil Fuels are far more favored by subsidies than RES

37 IMF: Fossil fuel subsidies estimates for 2015 $5.3 trillions or $10 million per minute!!!!

38 (4) Fossil fuels - External cost from climate changes The cost from climate catastrophes is rising..but still ignored: The destruction to peoples and property from climate change phenomena, recorded by the United Nations for the period is estimated at 2,5 trillion dollars, with increasing tendencies, of course. Presently the climate cost is estimated at 1,6% of global GDP and expected to rise to 3,2% by 2030.

39 The cost of direct environmental pollution, damage to public health, climate change catastrophes and subsidies render the continuation of the utilisation of fossil fuels problematic on real economic terms. The temporarily seemingly cheaper fossil fuels, because of the non calculation of external costs and subsidies will prove to be unbearably expensive in the not so distant future.

40 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

41 Renewable Energy Sources They are local, abundant, decentralised They are inexhaustible They provide a unique shield against climate change They offer the best environmental solution They lead to regional development They lead to decentralisation of energy production They provide energy security They are cheap and reduce energy cost All countries have them and not just a few lucky ones They do not require military campaigns to secure them They cannot be threatened by terrorism

42 Renewables and employment

43 An inexhaustible abundant recourse.

44 100% Renewable Energy possible The energy (r)evolution

45 Is it technically feasible?

46 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

47 Climate action is the cheaper choice and the wiser,

48 Governor of the Bank of England warns of climate change risk to economy

49 Lord Stern confirmed: Cutting GHG won t hurt the economy

50 Divestment from fossil fuels is gaining momentum: $2,6 trillion so far

51 Divestment from fossil fuels

52 The renewable-energy boom is here. Trillions of dollars will be invested over the next 25 years, driving some of the most profound changes yet in how humans get their electricity. About $8 trillion, or two thirds of the world's spending on new power capacity over the next 25 years, will go toward renewables!!!! New forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

53 A new analysis suggests that we continue to move into a world in which it makes more economic sense to draw electricity from the sun or the winds rather than from fossil fuels. Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

54 But..

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57 Contents Investing in Renewables. Climate change Fossil Fuel Exhaustion The Carbon bubble Environmental consequences External Cost External cost from environmental pollution External cost from public health damage External cost from huge subsidies External cost from climate change related catastrophes Renewables positive check list Restart global economy Renewables in Greece

58 Overall target : 18% of share of energy generated from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption: Heating and cooling: 20% of heat consumption met by renewable sources; Electricity: 40% of electricity demand met by electricity generated from renewable energy sources; Transport: 10% of energy demand met by renewable energy sources. Share of renewable consumption to gross final energy consumption. Comprises of direct use of renewables (e.g. biofuels) plus energy produced from renewables (e.g. wind, hydro). Final energy consumption is the energy that households, industry, services, agriculture and the transport sector use. EU Member State Target % To cover: Greece 7.2 % 8.1 % 7.9 % 18 % 10.1 % Germany 6.9 % 9 % 8.9 % 18 % 9.1 % Denmark 16.8 % 18.1 % 18.7 % 30 % 11.3 % Portugal 20.5 % 22.2 % 23 % 31 % 8 %

59 The desired renewable mix (2014/2020) Ministerial Decree, October 2010 Technology Actual Targets Actual End Jun 2014 Hydro Small (0-15MW) Large (>15MW) Photovoltaics Roofs (10 kw) 0 excl excl 372 Rest CSP Wind (including offshore) Biomass ,1 Geothermal

60 RES grew at an average rate of 28% p.a. between 2006 and 2013.

61 The boom experienced in photovoltaic technology

62 Wind energy additions

63 HWEA Wind Energy Statistics June 2015 Total installed MW per year The HWEA Wind Energy Statistics take into account the wind capacity which is in commercial or test operation in Greece and it is based on sources from the market actors.

64 HWEA Wind Energy Statistics June 2015 Installed MW per region CENTRAL (STEREA) GREECE PELOPONNESE EASTERN MACEDONIA & THRACE CRETE WESTERN GREECE ATTICA SOUTHERN AEGEAN SEA IONIAN ISLANDS WESTERN MACEDONIA CENTRAL MACEDONIA NORTHERN AEGEAN SEA THESSALIA

65 HWEA Wind Energy Statistics June 2015 Installed MW per wind energy producer TERNA Energy EDF IBERDROLA Rokas ENEL GREEN POWER ANEMOS (ELLAKTOR) PPC Renewables RF ENERGY EUNICE PROTERGIA ACCIONA BABCOCK & BROWN RENINVEST ENERCON Invest EREN GROUP WP IWECO BCI JASPER ENERGY INTRAKAT IKTINOS THEMELI ENVITEC ENTEKA MELKA PLASTIKA CRETE WRE AEROTECHNIKI OTHERS <

66 HWEA Wind Energy Statistics June Installed MW per year per manufacturer ACCIONA ENERCON GAMESA NEG Micon NORDEX SIEMENS VESTAS OTHERS

67 HWEA Wind Energy Statistics June 2015 S Installed MW per manufacturer (total new capacity: 102,9 MW) ACCIONA ENERCON GAMESA NORDEX VESTAS : 318,55MW 2012 : 115,8MW 2013 : 115,9MW 2014 : 113,1MW 142, ,

68 HWEA Wind Energy Statistics June 2015 Installed MW per manufacturer Market share per manufacturer VESTAS % 5.5% ENERCON % ΛΟΙΠΟΙ SIEMENS GAMESA % 9.4% NORDEX GAMESA SIEMENS NORDEX % ENERCON VESTAS ΛΟΙΠΟΙ

69 8.700 MW of mature WIND ENERGY projects = MW of mature wind projects Licensing Progress of RES up to Technology Applications Production license Installation License Binding connection terms With connection contract with PPA Operating Wind Biomass ,5 47 Geothermal Small Hydro ,5 220 PV(inl. Rooftops & PL exceptions) CSP Hybrid , TOTAL , , ,2

70 Thank you for your attention.