Lower Susquehanna SWP Partnership Meeting June 30, 2015

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1 DEVELOPING A BASIN-WIDE FRAMEWORK FOR DROUGHT FORECASTING AND PLANNING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION Climate Program Office Award Number NA14OAR Lower Susquehanna SWP Partnership Meeting June 30, 2015

HAZEN AND SAWYER S WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (WRM)

staff Engineers and economists Scientists and

forecasting & management Systems operations and

2 HAZEN AND SAWYER S WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (WRM) GROUP Core group of ~ 20 staff Multidisciplinary staff Engineers and economists Scientists and planners Water supply planning Water demand forecasting & management Systems operations and management Economic and environmental impact assessments Decision analytics

3 RISK AND WATER SUPPLY PLANNING Risk in planning decisions commonly stem from forecasting the future Predicting things that are variable UNCERTAINTY Predicting things that are uncertain Predicting things that are both variable and uncertain as if they were fixed and certain

4 DROUGHT IN THE NORTHEASTERN US Namias, J. (1967). Further Studies of Drought over Northeastern United States. Monthly Weather Review, 95(8):

5 DROUGHT IN THE NORTHEASTERN US How do we know when we re here? Namias, J. (1967). Further Studies of Drought over Northeastern United States. Monthly Weather Review, 95(8):

6 Strzepek, K. et al. (2010). Characterizing Changes in Drought Risk for the United States from Climate Change. Environmental Research Letters, 5(4): 1-9.

7 DEALING WITH DROUGHT Identify onset Implement mitigation actions Identify recovery Monitor relevant drought indices and forecasts Use triggers to initiate mitigation responses We want to catch possible/probable drought as early as possible We want to minimize occurrence of false positives Important to consider water demands

8 DEALING WITH DROUGHT Identify onset Implement mitigation actions Identify recovery Emphasize proactive over reactive management Continue to monitor drought indices/forecasts and re-evaluate management decisions Modeling and scenario analysis can help managers evaluate alternative strategies based on current and projected conditions

9 DEALING WITH DROUGHT Identify onset Implement mitigation actions Identify recovery Use drought indices and forecasts to trigger demobilization of mitigation actions We want to avoid costly mitigation actions when risk for adverse outcomes is reasonably low

10 SRBC s OASIS System Simulation Model

KEY COMPONENTS OF A SYSTEM MODEL Schoharie Reservoir Average Daily Inflow (1948-2004) 25000 20000 Inflow (mgd) 15000 10000 5000 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

11 KEY COMPONENTS OF A SYSTEM MODEL Schoharie Reservoir Average Daily Inflow ( ) Inflow (mgd) Inflow time series Historical Forecasts Climate change Current System Demand Infrastructure Regulations Operating Rules Performance Water supply Water quality Other objectives

12 INTEGRATED DROUGHT PLANNING AND OPERATIONS How do we connect information from forecasts and drought indices to water resources management? How do we integrate water supply planning with operations? How do we account for uncertainties due to climate change and other unknowns?

13 NOAA-SARP GRANT: DEVELOPING A DROUGHT PLANNING TOOL FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN

14 DROUGHT PLANNING TOOL FOR THE SRB: KEY OBJECTIVES Increase use of drought indicators and forecasts to guide dynamic, proactive system management with a common set of analytical tools; Guide NOAA s development of data sets, indicators, forecasts, and aggregation methodologies for the Chesapeake Bay region and the Eastern US; and Help establish regional cycle of analysis and decision-making for capital and resource planning periods.

15 NOAA-SARP RESEARCH TEAM Hazen and Sawyer Josh Weiss, Justin Irving, Ben Wright, Grantley Pyke UMass Amherst Dr. Rick Palmer, Kathryn Booras Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) John Balay, Ben Pratt, Can Liu Baltimore City DPW Clark Howells Water Research Foundation Kenan Ozekin, Alice Fulmer NOAA Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) Peter Ahnert

17 FORECASTED CROTON SYSTEM USABLE STORAGE Given today s conditions, system indices, and forecasted system inflows: What is the likelihood of entering drought? Should we initiate drought mitigation measures? What is the likelihood of use restrictions and can we avoid them? The objective of the SRB Drought Planning Tool is to enhance and integrate existing tools to improve predictive capabilities Observed storage

18 FORECASTED CROTON SYSTEM USABLE STORAGE Supply thresholds of interest (e.g. 25%, 30%, 35% storage) Observed storage

19 FORECASTED CROTON SYSTEM USABLE STORAGE Observed storage Forecasted storage

20 FORECASTED CROTON SYSTEM USABLE STORAGE e.g. Over the next 1-2 months, there is: 4% chance of dropping below 30% storage threshold 20% chance of dropping below 35% storage threshold Observed storage Forecasted storage

21 UTILITY-SCALE CASE STUDY: BALTIMORE CITY OPERATIONS

22 SUB-BASIN-SCALE CASE STUDY: LOWER SRB DROUGHT RESPONSE We need your help! Focus on drinking water suppliers What are the operational responses? Where is there system flexibility (e.g. multiple source management)? What are the tradeoffs (e.g. quantity vs. quality)? Is there a set of collective actions that could be coordinated to provide benefit to the entire lower Basin?

23 DISCUSSION IDEAS FOR CASE STUDY? Contact:

Toward a Basin-Wide Drought Planning Tool in the Susquehanna River Basin

Toward a Basin-Wide Drought Planning Tool in the Susquehanna River Basin 2016 AWRA Annual Conference November 13, 2016 Drought planning for water supply and forecasting drought conditions Josh Weiss, PhD,