Climate and Cryosphere Project (CliC) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Transcription

1 Climate and Cryosphere Project (CliC) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Understanding the changing cryosphere and its climate connections Lawrence Hislop CliC Director Tromsø, Norway Facebook: Climate and Cryosphere

2 Presentation Outline Polar Prediction in WMO CliC modelling work Users / Stakeholders

3 WMO Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar and High Mountain Observations, Research and Services - (EC-PHORS) Following the International Polar Year (IPY): The Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS). Decade long initiative that brings together National Meteorological and Hydrological Services throughout the world to map weather, water and essential climate variables. Three time scales: Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal) Medium-term predictability (seasonal to decadal) Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (decadal to centuries)

4 WMO GIPPS Implementation This requires involvement from: World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) established the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) improved prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hours to seasonal. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) established the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) which contributes to the development of GIPPS on time scales of seasonal and beyond.

5 WMO WWRP Implementation AWI, Germany

6 WMO WCRP Implementation Funding and setup different from PPP Led by CliC and SPARC, core projects of the WCRP, and will be a component of the Melting Ice and Global Consequences Grand Challenge.

7 Polar Prediction Workshops Bringing the communities together: 2014 Boulder, USA 2015 Reading, UK 2016 Columbia University, USA 2017 Bremerhaven, Germany 2018 Montreal, Canada

8 CliC and WCRP Today

9 WCRP Strategy Overarching scientific objectives: 1. Processes (climate analysis) 2. Predictability (climate predictions) 3. Sensitivity (climate projections) The WCRP Strategic Plan will be released for public comment on 1 June *Public event at AGU 2018 *40 th anniversary WCRP new strategy is focussed on partnerships. Need for global coordination.

10 Host Sponsor Tromso = Climate and Cryosphere project

11 CliC Action Plan Four General Science Themes Observing the Cryosphere Physical Processes and Dynamical Understanding Modelling the Cryosphere Global and Regional Predictionand Predictability 15 pages J

12 Domains Sea Ice Ice Sheets Glaciers Permafrost Snow cover Freshwater

13 Global in scope, but with regional foci Mainly Polar Increasing focus on - Himalayas - South America - Other regions

14 Governance Scientific Steering Group: James Renwick (Co-Chair, New Zealand) Fiamma Straneo (Co-Chair, USA) Hiroyuki Enomoto (Japan) Stephen Hudson (Norway) Alexandra Jahn (USA) Shichang Kang (China) Sebastian Mernild (Chile) Lars H. Smedsrud (Norway) Dario Trombotto Liaudat (Argentina) SSG 13, Wellington 2017 SSG 12, Copenhagen 2016 Serve two year terms Next SSG: Polar18 (June)

15 Projects

16 Modelling - CMIP6 How does the Earth system respond to forcing? What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios?

17 Modelling (CMIP6) ESM-SnowMIP - Earth System Model-Snow Model Intercomparison Project (part of LS3MIP) SIMIP - Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project ISMIP6 - Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project GlacierMIP - Glacier Model Intercomparison Project These are linked to PCPI, IPCC, +

18 SIMIP Sea Ice Goal 1: to better understand sea ice in a changing climate Goal 2: Define a list of variables to understand the evolution of sea ice in any experiment using the sea ice model as part of CMIP6. Three guiding questions: 1. Why do model simulations differ from each other? 2. Why do model simulations differ from the observational record 3. What can we do to reduce these differences to obtain a better understanding of sea ice in the climate system and achieve more realistic projections in both hemispheres. /simip

19 Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Stakeholders Workshop Arctic Frontiers, Tromso, January 2018 This workshop brought together sea ice stakeholders and forecasters to: 1) Assess the value of forecasts by the user community. 2) Determine if and how ice forecasts are currently being used in decision making. 3) Communicate the relevant metrics needed by various stakeholders. 4) Identify where improvements in sea ice forecasts would help stakeholders make decisions. 5) Communicate the limits and opportunities of current forecasting systems. This is linked to PCPI and SIPN2

20 Stakeholders con t

21 Web CliC Communications Facebook Newsletter Twitter

22 Montreal Montreal Ranked #1 For Most UFO Sightings In Canada

23 Thank you