Sustainable Prosperity on a Crowded Planet?

Transcription

1 Sustainable Prosperity on a Crowded Planet? William C. Clark Professor of International Science, Public Policy and Human Development Co-director, Sustainability Science Program Harvard Kennedy School

2 Health?

3 Water?

4 Food?

5 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Energy?

6 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Habitation?

7 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Sustainable Prosperity: A challenge across generations Environment is where we live; Development is what we all do in attempting to improve our lot within that abode. The two are inseparable. Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable: To ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. (WCED, 1987)

8 Sustainability today: Much talk

9 Lots of data about rising pressures on the planet

10 Growing concerns about long term environmental degradation.

11 Making sense of Sustainability? 1. An analytic framework * What is sustainability? * What determines it? * What most threatens it? 2. What s to be done? * Strategic thinking about the world we live in * Urgent action agendas for sustainability 3. Who is doing it?

12 1) A Framework for Making Sense of Sustainability Human Well-Being Normative goals Consumption Processes Goods & Services Production Processes (environmental, economic, social) Productive Base (stocks / assets) Social-Environmental System Underlying determinants

13 What is Sustainable Prosperity? Inclusive Well-being Human Well-Being Consumption Processes (mediated by culture, power) Goods & Services Production Processes (environmental, economic, social) Productive Base Capabilities *material needs * health * education * community * security Aggregate individuals intra-, intergenerations 13

14 OECD Well-being = All constituents

15 Human Well-Being Consumption Processes (mediated by culture, power) Constituents of Well-being Capabilities Material needs Health Education Community Security Aggregated individuals: intra-, intergenerations Goods & Services Production Processes (environmental, economic, social) Productive Base Determinants of Well-being: Individuals access to Natural capital (C n ) Manufactured capital (C m ) Human capital (C h ) Knowledge capital (C k ) Social capital (C s ) 15

16 Sustainable Development as Asset Management Development is sustainable if the social value its capital assets do not decline Regular monitoring and reporting now conducted by World Bank, UN, scholars : IW = f (C n, C h, C m, C s, C k ) 16

17 Inclusive Wealth (per capita change from 1990) Venezuela

18 Inclusive Wealth Growth Rate (/capita) China s development is sustainable?

19 2) Principal threats to sustainability Through Natural Capital? Climate change accelerating Human-caused, irreversible Present and future damage to agriculture, coastal areas, public health, fire zones Biodiversity collapsing Diminished stability, service provision Disrupted disease control. Toxins ubiquitous US streams Polar bears?

20 What will kill the last polar bears? 1. Habitat fragmentation? 2. Climate change? 3. Agricultural expansion? 4. Hunting? 5. Dementia?

21 Principal threats to sustainability through Human Capital? Persisting malnutrition low life expectancy Rise of new diseases Spillovers from animals, chronic metabolic

22 Principal threats to sustainability through Manufactured Capital? Rapid urbanization Doubling capital stock without infrastructure The China syndrome

23 Principal threats to sustainability through Knowledge capital? Capacity to innovate public goods is falling Public sector support declining Private sector increasingly has much of the knowledge, but little motivation to invest in long term things that don t affect current stock price. Academia continues to be stove-piped Great for advancement of disciplines, professions Not for integrated thinking / problem solving

24 Principal threats to sustainability through Social Capital? Sustainability is fundamentally about assuring that the benefits and damages of efforts to improve well-being are equitably distributed across and within generations requires active governmental intervention But trust in government is declining in the western democracies that historically led such redistributive efforts.

25 Trends: Trust in US government How much of the time do you trust the government in Washington? Trust Just about always / most of the time Distrust Some of the time / never Source: PRC.

26 Trust in Government Dark red = very low.. Dark Green = very high

27 2) What s to be done? Human Well-Being Consumption Processes (mediated by culture, power) Constituents of Well-being Capabilities Material needs Health Education Community Security Goods & Services Production Processes (environmental, economic, social) Productive Base Determinants of Well-being Natural capital (C n ) Human capital (C h ) Manufactured capital (C m ) Social capital/institutions (C s ) Knowledge capital (C k ) 27

28 2) What s to be done? (Re)thinking the world we live in The end of nature Home is a social-environmental system Complex (you can t just do one thing) Adaptive (nature always bites back.) Acting accordingly Four urgent priorities.

29 a) Sustainability Agenda 1: Don t meet energy needs with fossil fuels! 29 (Muller et al, 2011)

30 Don t meet energy needs with fossil fuels (they are very bad for people) 30 (Muller et al, 2011)

31 b) Sustainability Agenda 2: food system nutrition system Corn sugar based food system: one of the great public health epidemics of our time David Kessler, former FDA Commissioner Pushed by marketing system that brought us (and kept us) smoking Kick habit!

32 c) Sustainability Agenda 3: Radically reduce use of Biocides! Pesticides kill pollinators, predators, children Herbicides, fungicides drinking water, ecosystem damage Antibiotics antibiotic winter, new diseases

33 d) Sustainability Agenda 4: Reduce inequalities in consumption Cause of natural capital degradation too much wealth, too much poverty Cause of human capital degradation too little food (stuff), too much food (stuff) Cause of social capital degradation Extreme inequalities exacerbate loss of trust in the governance institutions we most need

34 3) Who is doing Sustainable Development? 34

35 What are You (aka the enemy ) doing for Sustainable Development? Stop digging deeper in the hole of fossil fuels Replace today s food system with a system for providing good nutrition Radically reduce biocide use (Why kill the kids?) Reverse destructive inequality in access to what planet has to offer Tasks for our own patches

36 For further information Sustainability Science Program at Harvard rams/sustsci Harvard s Office of Sustainability Me william_clark@hks.harvard.edu