Tackling the Big Blue Rabbit: Using Nature-based Features and Risk-based Paradigms to Consider Climate Change and Promote Functional Resilience

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1 Tackling the Big Blue Rabbit: Using Nature-based eatures and Risk-based Paradigms to Consider Climate Change and Promote unctional Resilience Dr. Kelly A. Burks-Copes Environmental Laboratory US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Vicksburg, MS Workshop #1: unctional Resilience: Integrating Environment and Ecosystems into Resilience Theory and Real World Decisions Global orum for Urban and Rural Resilience VA Tech, Ballston, VA 14 October 214 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG

2 Rogue Disclaimer BUILDING STRONG Slide 2 of 6

Mission performance Mission performance The problem in

and military) may be situationally aware of their

horizons (on the order of 5 to 3 years) have become

stationarity, overlooking the newly quantified and

3 Mission performance Mission performance The problem in a nutshell: While planners and managers (both civil and military) may be situationally aware of their vulnerabilities today, their strategic planning horizons (on the order of 5 to 3 years) have become grounded in the assumption of future climate stationarity, overlooking the newly quantified and pervasive threat multiplier of climate change and sea level rise. 1 1 t t END Impairment Duration Increased impairment and Duration Event occurs Time Event occurs Time BUILDING STRONG Slide 3 of 6

4 How bad could it get? -yr Event with m SLR (Max Surge = 3. m) -yr Event with 2 m SLR (Max Surge = 5.8 m) Burks-Copes, et al., 214 (in press) BUILDING STRONG Slide 4 of 6

5 On top of all that.... Today s infrastructure investment choices are key, as they represent a huge opportunity to spend on projects that will result in better, long-term resource management A lack of investment now or investment in unsustainable areas will result in further costs through climate change.. (World Economic orum 29) Engineering and Design Increasing Severity of Climate Impacts Infrastructure Service Life Planning Construction In Service Infrastructure planned and built with past climate and weather in mind may not be adequate for future resilience and operation Years BUILDING STRONG Slide 5 of 6 After United States Ports: Addressing the Adaptation Challenge, Mr. Mike Savonis

Chasing the Big Blue Rabbit... Call it climate change, call it the big blue rabbit. I don t give a hoot what you call it the military has to respond to those kinds of things. Brig. Gen.

6 Chasing the Big Blue Rabbit... Call it climate change, call it the big blue rabbit. I don t give a hoot what you call it the military has to respond to those kinds of things. Brig. Gen. Mark McCleod Commander, Defense Logistics Agency, Energy, Defense Logistics Agency, ort Belvoir, VA Resilience is the ability of a system to prepare for, resist, recover, and adapt to achieve functional performance under the stress of natural hazards and humanrelated disturbances through time. Vulnerability is the opposite side of the coin..... i.e., the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, the adverse effects of natural hazards or human-induced disturbances over a period of time or temporal reference (exposure + sensitivity + adaptive capacity) BUILDING STRONG Slide 6 of 6

7 Others are chasing the Big Blue Rabbit too! BUILDING STRONG Slide 7 of 6 Bridges, et al., 214 (in press)

Resilience in the face of climate change is a Super-wicked Problem Characterized by: Incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements Cannot be resolved solely with hard science or technical

8 Resilience in the face of climate change is a Super-wicked Problem Characterized by: Incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements Cannot be resolved solely with hard science or technical solutions Solutions are often difficult to recognize because of complex interdependencies Super-wicked because: Wicked problems have numerous intervention points, have consequences difficult to envision, and are surrounded by a dynamic uncertainty wrapped in a moving frontier of knowledge. Ioannis Petrus, 29 o time is running out o those who caused the problem also seek to provide a solution o the central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent, and o policy responses discount the future irrationally (Levin 21, 212) BUILDING STRONG Slide 8 of 6

Super-wicked problems must be tackled through post-normative approaches Post-normative solutions (untowicz & Ravetz 1993) are described as soft-systems approaches that engage transdisciplinary teams

9 Super-wicked problems must be tackled through post-normative approaches Post-normative solutions (untowicz & Ravetz 1993) are described as soft-systems approaches that engage transdisciplinary teams (ry et al., 27; Tress et al., 25) that are deployed when both the stakes are high and uncertainties are prevalent..... These situations often call for the use of prescriptive, participatory techniques (Riabecke et al., 212) to fill knowledge gaps and promote transparency and confidence in the proposed solutions. Resilience is best tackled through: Systems thinking and spiral-based modeling (Boehm, 1988; Boehm et al., 212) that encourages recursive & reflexive planning and analysis Creative problem solving (Parnes 1992) ast & frugal heuristics (Gigerenzer 27) Transformative design (Sangiorgi 211) which requires a form of engineering jujitsu centered around blended solutions Adaptive co-management (Armitage et al., 29; Cundill and abricius, 29; Light et al., 213) BUILDING STRONG Slide 9 of 6

Research Questions Driving our Studies How to plan and implement effective recovery plans for thousands of miles of impacted ecosystems when shifting, oftentimes conflicting political, social, and

10 Research Questions Driving our Studies How to plan and implement effective recovery plans for thousands of miles of impacted ecosystems when shifting, oftentimes conflicting political, social, and ecological agendas influence the decision outcomes? How to measure success when ecosystem integrity or system wholeness can never be restored with any degree of certainty? How to efficiently integrate data, models and expert knowledge in a transparent manner that is prescriptive (sufficient, relevant, and reliable), visually engaging (promoting rapid communication), and adaptive (proactively responsive to uncertainty) in dynamic decision making environment over the long-term? How to effectively engage stakeholders and scientists alike in capturing the uncertainties arising from natural variability as well as those uncertainties stemming from the application of the locally-derived knowledge, information and opinions to formulate sustainable and resilient solutions? BUILDING STRONG Slide 1 of 6 Burks-Copes 213

11 USACE is ideally positioned to tackle the big blue rabbit..... We have enough science & technology to inform adaptation policy and guidance now We already serve as aggregators and translators of technical information, applying new and changing information from science across the spectrum of engineering practice. Engineering With Nature (EWN) solutions will be required in the next 1-2 years to enhance human and ecosystem health and resilience to climate and other changes EWN is the intentional alignment of natural and engineering processes to efficiently and sustainably deliver economic, environmental and social benefits through collaborative processes. EWN solutions will involve novel application of existing technologies and materials, or combinations of existing and new technologies and materials Performance and cost will be the major drivers BUILDING STRONG Slide 11 of 6 11

flexible systems-scale approach Quantitatively evaluate natural hazard risks to critical military assets (i.e., infrastructure) and mission capabilities Address a

12 Burks-Copes et al. 214 (in press) Case Study #1 Quantifying Coastal Storm and Sea Level Rise Risks to Naval Station Norfolk Problem Statement Devise and demonstrate a rigorous yet flexible systems-scale approach Quantitatively evaluate natural hazard risks to critical military assets (i.e., infrastructure) and mission capabilities Address a range of SLR, tidal fluctuation, and storm stage-frequencies Technical Goals Characterize impacts Decompose mission & infrastructure systems Pinpoint vulnerabilities Quantify performance sustainability risks Identify adaptive capacity tipping points Communicate results to the field BUILDING STRONG Slide 12 of 6

Jevrejeva et al. (26) IPCC (27) Pfeffer etal. (28) Siddall et al.(29) Horton et al (28) Moore et al (21) (w/o glacier melt) Grinsted et al (21) Rahmstorf (27) Jevrejeva et al.

(21) (with glacier melt) Sea-Level Rise (m) (m) Technical Approach This is a Demonstration Project Select missions, capabilities, assets, hazards, and forcings are modeled Coastal storm parameters

13 Jevrejeva et al. (26) IPCC (27) Pfeffer etal. (28) Siddall et al.(29) Horton et al (28) Moore et al (21) (w/o glacier melt) Grinsted et al (21) Rahmstorf (27) Jevrejeva et al. (21) Vermeer and Rahmstorf (29) Moore et al. (21) (with glacier melt) Sea-Level Rise (m) (m) Technical Approach This is a Demonstration Project Select missions, capabilities, assets, hazards, and forcings are modeled Coastal storm parameters are not altered due to potential climate change effects Datums Horizontal datum = North American Datum of 1983 (NAD83) Vertical datum = North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) Period of Analysis Start Date = 2 End Date = 2 ( yr period of analysis) Sea Level Rise (local MSL between 2-2).5m 1.m 1.5m 2.m Storm Return Intervals Recurrence interval Probability of occurrence in any given year Percent chance of occurrence in any given year -yr 1 in 1% 5-yr 1 in 5 2% 1-yr 1 in 1 1% Prescribed SERDP scenarios are reasonably supported in the peer reviewed literature Recent Published Model Estimates of Year 2 Sea-Level Rise (m) BUILDING 1-yr STRONG 1 in 1 % Slide 13 of Boon (212) Ezer and Corlett (212) Sea-Level Rise Scenarios SERDP RC Project Sea-Level Rise Scenarios Sea-Level Rise Equation: SL 2 - SL = a (Y 2 -Y ) + b (Y 2 -Y ) Year Year.5 m 1. m

Project Team Principal Investigators Dr. Kelly Burks-Copes Dr.

Andrew Morang Environmental Modeling Dr. Craig ischenich Mr.

Eric Smith Hydrodynamic Modeling Dr. Jane Smith Dr. Jay Ratcliff Dr.

Ryan Pickett Mr. Kevin Winters Installation Modeling Dr.

14 Project Team Principal Investigators Dr. Kelly Burks-Copes Dr. Edmond Russo Geomorphologic Modeling Dr. Andrew Morang Environmental Modeling Dr. Craig ischenich Mr. Kyle McKay Groundwater Surveying Dr. Janet Simms Mr. Eric Smith Hydrodynamic Modeling Dr. Jane Smith Dr. Jay Ratcliff Dr. Honghai Li Dr. Lihwa Lin Dr. Cary Talbot Mr. Mike ollum Mr. Ryan Pickett Mr. Kevin Winters Installation Modeling Dr. Michael Case Mr. Steve Pranger Asset Damage Modeling Dr. Paul Mlakar Mr. Jose Rullan-Rodriguez Database Development and Spatial Analyses Mr. Scott Bourne Mr. Austin Davis Risk Assessment Modeling Dr. Martin Schultz BUILDING STRONG Slide 14 of 6 Move the food. John Hall, SERDP PM

Nearshore Waves, Current, Water Levels, and Sediment Transport Assessment (CMS) Bathymetry and land cover changes SLR Scenario- and event-based time history of surge, waves & wind Water level, waves,

15 SLR Scenario (,.5, 1, 1.5, 2m) Geomorphic and Geologic Assessment Shoreline characterization Ecology and Land Use Conversion Assessment (Straight-line & SLAMM) Regional Surge and Waves Assessment (TC96 + ADCIRC + SWAN) Nearshore Waves, Current, Water Levels, and Sediment Transport Assessment (CMS) Bathymetry and land cover changes SLR Scenario- and event-based time history of surge, waves & wind Water level, waves, and morphology changes MAXIMUM WIND, SURGE, & WAVES Groundwater Assessment (AdH) MAX IMUM WATER LEVEL, WAVE HEIGHT, CURRENT SPEED, EROSION, ACCRETION, & SEDIMENT TRANSPORT RATE Asset Capability Network Development Infrastructure Network (ArcGIS) Structural Analysis (ISS3D + HAZUS MR-4) ASSET IDENTITY, CHARACTERISTICS AND CONNECTIVITTY Probability of the damage states given the loadings Risk Assessment (Netica) Groundwater table position WATER DEPTH AND Surface lood Routing DURATION (GSSHA) BUILDING STRONG Slide 15 of 6

16 Hydrodynamic Modeling BUILDING STRONG Slide 16 of 6

17 Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment BUILDING STRONG Slide 17 of 6

Asset Network Diagramming Asset Capability Mission Pier # Provide Berthing Space Water Treatment Plant Water Storage Water Distribution System Provide Water Electrical Transmission System

Provide Supplies Provide Ammunition Provide At-Berth Support Off-Base Road Network Pier Parking Areas Provide Personnel Support Commercial Goods Suppliers Natural Gas Supply Steam Plant Steam

18 Asset Network Diagramming Asset Capability Mission Pier # Provide Berthing Space Water Treatment Plant Water Storage Water Distribution System Provide Water Electrical Transmission System Provide Electric Power Electrical Supply Electrical Substation Sewage and Oily Waste Treatment Provide CHT (Sewage, OW) Untreated Water Supply Base Road Network ISC Warehouses Ammunition Bunkers Provide Supplies Provide Ammunition Provide At-Berth Support Off-Base Road Network Pier Parking Areas Provide Personnel Support Commercial Goods Suppliers Natural Gas Supply Steam Plant Steam Distribution System Provide Steam POL Supply POL Storage Tanks POL Distribution System Provide POL (uel, Oil) Off-Base Communications NCTAMS Building Provide Communications BUILDING STRONG Slide 18 of 6

Asset Connectivity DVP Sewell's Point Substation ELECTRICAL GENERATOR STEAM TALL_STEAM_LINE SHORT_STEAM_LINE UNDERGROUND_STEAM_LINE POL

Substation NR Substation CEP-51 Navy South Substation D&S Substation Electrical Ring Bus Z-312 Transformer Q-81 WW & OW Generator Q-81

WTP Q-95 Transformer Water SP-9 Transformer Q-21 Substation CEP-4 Transformer CEP-1 Transformer Q-94 Substation CEP-158 Pump House SP-9 Pump

Water Pumps Z-312 Steam Plant Building CEP-4 uel Pump House Thimble Shoals Q-81 WW Mechanicals CEP-1 OW Pump House P11 Electricity P-1 Steam

CEP-1 OW Pump Inner Harbor P-1 Steam Plant Mechanicals Q-95 WW Mechanicals SLN25ZZ472 W-385 WW Generator SLN25ZZ469 CT-2 OW Pump All Piers

SLN25UZ512 SLN25BB514 SLN25ZZ515 P12 North Draft SLN25BC514 P11 North Berth SLN25UZ516 Pier 14 South reeboard W-385 WW Lift House SLN25ZZ572

SLN25ZZ629 P14 Oily Waste Pier 12 South Draft W-385 OW Pump SLN25ZZ573 SLN25ZA57 SLN25ZA1416 Pier 14 South Draft Pier 12 Pier 12 South

SLN25ZC57 SLN25SA565 Pier 14 Pier 14 North Draft MISSION P12 MISSION P11 SLN25ZZ574 SLN25ZB565 SLN25SC565 P11 Steam P14 North Berth

19 Asset Connectivity DVP Sewell's Point Substation ELECTRICAL GENERATOR STEAM TALL_STEAM_LINE SHORT_STEAM_LINE UNDERGROUND_STEAM_LINE POL WATER BERTHING WASTEWATER OILY_WASTE NAVIGATION Q-123 Navy North Substation P-1 uel Storage Tanks P-1 Generators NB Substation NAS Substation NR Substation CEP-51 Navy South Substation D&S Substation Electrical Ring Bus Z-312 Transformer Q-81 WW & OW Generator Q-81 Transformer CEP-158 Transformer 37th St. WTP Q-95 Transformer Water SP-9 Transformer Q-21 Substation CEP-4 Transformer CEP-1 Transformer Q-94 Substation CEP-158 Pump House SP-9 Pump House Oily Waste Z-312 Generator P1 Transformer Q-81 WW Lift House P11 Lower Deck Substation Q-95 WW & OW Generator SP-9 Water Pumps CEP-158 Water Pumps Z-312 Steam Plant Building CEP-4 uel Pump House Thimble Shoals Q-81 WW Mechanicals CEP-1 OW Pump House P11 Electricity P-1 Steam Plant Building P12 Electricity Q-95 WW Lift House Harbor Entrance CEP-4 uel Pumps Berthing W-385 Transformer Z-312 Steam Plant Mechanicals CEP-1 OW Pump Inner Harbor P-1 Steam Plant Mechanicals Q-95 WW Mechanicals SLN25ZZ472 W-385 WW Generator SLN25ZZ469 CT-2 OW Pump All Piers Access Pier 11 North reeboard SLN25UZ513 All Piers Water SLN25ZA514 Pier 11 North Draft CT-1 OW Pump P12 North reeboard P12 Wastewater SLN25UZ512 SLN25BB514 SLN25ZZ515 P12 North Draft SLN25BC514 P11 North Berth SLN25UZ516 Pier 14 South reeboard W-385 WW Lift House SLN25ZZ572 SLN25ZD514 SLN25SZ517 P12 North Berth SLN25UZ52 P14 Wastewater SLN25ZA571 SLN25UZ521 P14 Electricity P12 Oily Waste W-385 WW Mechanicals SLN25ZZ629 P14 Oily Waste Pier 12 South Draft W-385 OW Pump SLN25ZZ573 SLN25ZA57 SLN25ZA1416 Pier 14 South Draft Pier 12 Pier 12 South reeboard Pier 11 SLN25ZZ563 P11 Oily Waste P11 Wastewater SLN25ZB57 SLN25UZ564 P14 South Berth Pier 14 North reeboard P12 South Berth SLN25ZC57 SLN25SA565 Pier 14 Pier 14 North Draft MISSION P12 MISSION P11 SLN25ZZ574 SLN25ZB565 SLN25SC565 P11 Steam P14 North Berth SLN25ZD565 P12 Steam SLN25UZ1413 SLN25ZA567 SLN25SE565 SLN25ZZ566 MISSION P14 P14 Steam SLN25UZ34 SLN25ZC294 SLN25B567 SLN25ZD567 SLN25UZ568 SLN25SA31 SLN25ZD294 SLN25ZB294 SLN25ZA294 SLN25ZZ569 SLN25ZG567 SLN25ZE567 SLN25ZC567 SLN25ZB567 SLN25ZZ575 SLN25SB31 Steam BUILDING STRONG Slide 19 of 6

Steam line has visible cracks. Yes No 2. Damage functions predicted the response of the SUA to wind, waves, surge, inundation, and sediment loads. 3.

20 Structural Assessment 1. Potential damage states were defined State Description unctional? None No damage. Yes Minor Cracks in pylon. No visible damage to steam line. Yes Moderate Severe Pylon replacement required. No visible damage to steam line. Pylon concrete crushed. Steam line has visible cracks. Yes No 2. Damage functions predicted the response of the SUA to wind, waves, surge, inundation, and sediment loads. 3. ragility curves estimated the probability of each damage state as a function of the moment given the wind, water, and sediment loads acting on the asset. BUILDING STRONG Slide 2 of 6

21 Risk Assessment BUILDING STRONG Slide 21 of 6

..5 1. 1.5 2. SLR [1] Q-21 P14 Substation $ ND/ Minor/ Moderate/ Severe/ [1] Q-21 P14 Substation $ P14 416VA Power $$ 1 1 ±.49 [13] P14 South Draft $$ Less than critical At least critical 1.51 98.

5.49 [9] Q-123 Navy North Substation $ [12] Q-81 P14 WW Lift House $.17 [162] Q-81 Transformer $ 99.8.25 [114-118] P14 WW Mechanicals $$ P14 Wastewater $$ 1.25 99.8.998 ±.5 to.1.1 to.2.2 to.3.3 to.4.4 to.

56 [135] P14 North reeboard $ [126] P14 North Berth $$ 1 [1] P14 WW & OW Generator $ [12] Q-81 P14 WW Lift House $ None / Minor / 8.55 91.5.915 ±.28 Moderate / Severe / 1 97. 2.77.24.

16 All Piers Access $$ 1 P14 North Draft $$ Less than critical At least critical [1] P14 WW & OW Generator $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [121] Thimble Shoals $$ GE Critical depth LT Critical

35.75 99.3.993 ±.86 [54D] SLN25ZD294 (TP) $ [171] CEP-1 Transformer $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [44] CEP-1 OW Pump $ None / Minor / [41] CT-1 Pier 14 OW Pump $.

7 14.3 99.3.75 16.5 83.5.2 [37] CEP-1 OW Pump House $ 99.8.25 [44] CEP-1 OW Pump 99.8.25 [42] CT-2 Pier 12 OW Pump $ [131] P12 North Draft $$ Less than critical At least critical [37] CEP-1 OW Pump House $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / 99.

22 SLR [1] Q-21 P14 Substation $ ND/ Minor/ Moderate/ Severe/ [1] Q-21 P14 Substation $ P14 416VA Power $$ 1 1 ±.49 [13] P14 South Draft $$ Less than critical At least critical [134] P14 South reeboard $ [125] P14 South Berth $$ ±.12 [9] Q-123 Navy North Substation $ ND/ Minor/ Moderate/ Severe/ [162] Q-81 Transformer $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [9] Q-123 Navy North Substation $ [12] Q-81 P14 WW Lift House $.17 [162] Q-81 Transformer $ [ ] P14 WW Mechanicals $$ P14 Wastewater $$ ±.5 to.1.1 to.2.2 to.3.3 to.4.4 to.5.5 to.6.6 to.7.7 to.8.8 to.9.9 to 1 MISSION P14 & ±.56 [135] P14 North reeboard $ [126] P14 North Berth $$ 1 [1] P14 WW & OW Generator $ [12] Q-81 P14 WW Lift House $ None / Minor / ±.28 Moderate / Severe / [ ] P14 WW Mechanicals $ None / Severe / P14 Steam $$.25 1 ±.16 All Piers Access $$ 1 P14 North Draft $$ Less than critical At least critical [1] P14 WW & OW Generator $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [121] Thimble Shoals $$ GE Critical depth LT Critical depth [122] Harbor Entrance $$ GE Critical depth LT Critical depth [123] Inner Harbor $$ GE Critcal depth LT Critical depth P14 Oily Waste $$ ± ±.86 [54D] SLN25ZD294 (TP) $ [171] CEP-1 Transformer $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [44] CEP-1 OW Pump $ None / Minor / [41] CT-1 Pier 14 OW Pump $.25 Moderate / Severe / [54D] SLN25ZD294 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [171] CEP-1 Transformer $ [121] Thimble Shoals $$ [122] Harbor Entrance $$ [123] Inner Harbor $$ [37] CEP-1 OW Pump House $ [44] CEP-1 OW Pump [42] CT-2 Pier 12 OW Pump $ [131] P12 North Draft $$ Less than critical At least critical [37] CEP-1 OW Pump House $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [132] P12 South Draft $$ Less than critical At least critical [54C] SLN25ZC294 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [124] P12 North Berth $$ 1 [11] Q-95 P12 WW Lift House None / Minor / [163] Q-95 Transformer $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / Moderate / Severe / [54C] SLN25ZC294 (TP) $.25 [ ] P12 WW Mechanicals $ [137] P12 South reeboard $ [136] P12 North reeboard $ ±.17 [127] P12 South Berth $$ [ ] P12 WW Mechanicals $ None / Severe / ±.28 [163] Q-95 Transformer $ [11] Q-95 P12 WW Lift House $ P12 Oily Waste $$ ±.7 P12 Steam $$.25 1 ±.16 [54B] SLN25ZB294 (TP) $ [154] NAS Substation $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [154] NAS Substation $ [164] Q-95 WW & OW Generator $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [164] Q-95 WW & OW Generator $.25 [54B] SLN25ZB294 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [8] CEP-51 NB Substation $ [11] Q-94 P12 Substation $ P12 Wastewater $$ ±.5 P12 416VA Power $$ 1 to.1.1 to.2.2 to.3.3 to.4.4 to.5.5 to.6.6 to.7.7 to.8.8 to.9.9 to 1 1 ±.49 MISSION P12 & ±.57 None / Minor / [8] NB Substation $ Moderate / Severe / [148] DVP Sewell's Point Substation $ [54A] SLN25ZA294 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [148] DVP Sewell's Point Substation $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [167] SP-9 Transformer $ ND/ Minor/ Moderate/ Severe/ [11] Q-94 P12 Substation $ ND/ Minor/ Moderate/ Severe/ [17] Ring Bus $ [11] HRSD Lift Pump $ ND / Severe / All Piers Water $$ ±.88 [54A] SLN25ZA294 (TP) $ [3-6] P-1 Generators $ [167] SP-9 Transformer $ [3-6] P-1 Generators $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [172] SP-9 Pump House $ ND / 97. Minor / 2.77 Moderate /.24 Severe /.12 [57] SLN25UZ34 (UG) $.25 [172] SP-9 Pump House $ [78] SLN25ZZ569 (UG) $ [157] P11 Lower Deck Substation $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [157] P11 Lower Deck Substation $ [133] P11 Draft North $$ Less than critical At least critical [45] P-1 uel Storage Tanks $ ND / Severe / [128] P11 North Berth $$ 1.25 [173] SP-9 Water Pumps $ [138] P11 reeboard North $$ ±.37 [58] SLN25UZ1413 (UG) $ None / Minor / [153] NR Substation $ Moderate / Severe / [2] W-385 WW Generator $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe /.25 [] 37th St. WTP $ [76G] SLN25ZG567 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [76G] SLN25ZG567 (TP) $ [2] W-385 WW Generator $ [153] NR Substation $ ND / Minor / [43] W-385 P11 OW Pump $$ [] 37th St. WTP $ Moderate / Severe / 1 P11 Steam $$.25 [168] CEP-158 Transformer $ [173] SP-9 Water Pumps $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / P11 Oily Waste $$ ±.7 1 ±.16 [76] SLN25B567 (TP) $.25 [152] D&S Substation $ [94] CEP158 Pump House $ [76] SLN25B567 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [152] D&S Substation $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [165] W-385 Transformer [95-98] CEP-158 Water Pumps $ [13] W-385 P11 WW Lift House $ P11 416VA & 13.8KVA Power $$ 1 1 ±.55 [168] CEP-158 Transformer $ ND/ Minor/ Moderate/ Severe/ [76E] SLN25ZE567 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [76E] SLN25ZE567 (TP) $ [13] W-385 P11 WW Lift House $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [ ] P11 WW Mechanicals $ [94] CEP158 Pump House $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / to.1.1 to.2.2 to.3.3 to.4.4 to.5.5 to.6.6 to.7.7 to.8.8 to.9.9 to [165] W-385 Transformer $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [ ] P11 WW Mechanicals $ None / Severe / P11 Wastewater $$ 1 [95-98] CEP-158 Water Pumps $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / ±.5 MISSION P11 & ±.6 [143] Z-312 Steam Plant Building $ [175] Z-312 Steam Plant Mechanicals $ [76D] SLN25BD567 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [76D] SLN25ZD567 (TP) $ [143] Z-312 Steam Plant Building $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [161] Z-312 Transformer $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [83 SLN25ZZ573 (TP) $ [76C] SLN25ZC567 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / [84] SLN25ZZ574 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / Moderate / Severe / [76C] SLN25ZC567 (TP) $ [161] Z-312 Transformer $ [175] Z-312 Steam Plant Mechanicals $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [76A] SLN25ZA567 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [174] Z-312 Generator $ [83] SLN25ZZ573 (TP) $$ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [82] SLN25ZZ572 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [79C] SLN25ZC57 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [84] SLN25ZZ574 (TP) $.25 [76B] SLN25ZB567 (TP) $ [76A] SLN25ZA567 (TP) $ [15] CEP-51 Navy South Substation $ [61] SLN25UZ512 (UG) $ [82] SLN25ZZ572 (TP) $.27 [79C] SLN25ZC57 (TP) $.27 [144] CEP-4 uel Pump House $ [89] P-1 Steam Plant Mechanicals $.27 [59] SLN25ZZ469 (TP) $ [85] SLN25ZZ575 (TP) $ [169] CEP-4 Transformer $ ND / Minor / [76B] SLN25ZB567 (TP) $?? ND/ Minor / [77] SLN25UZ568 (UG) $ [174] Z-312 Generator Moderate / Severe /.27 Moderate / Severe / [158] CEP-4 uel Pumps $ [85] SLN25ZZ575 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [159-16] P1 Transformer $ [55B] SLN25SB31 (SP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [55B] SLN25SB31 (SP) $ [15] CEP-51 Navy South Substation $ None / Minor / Moderate / Moderate / [169] CEP-4 Transformer $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [144] CEP-4 uel Pump House $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [59] SLN25ZZ469 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [6] SLN25ZZ472 (TP) $ [158] CEP-4 uel Pumps None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [55A] SLN25SA31 (SP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [79B] SLN25ZB57 (TP) $ [55A] SLN25SA31 (SP) $.27 [79B] SLN25ZB57 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [159-16] P-1 Transformer $ None / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [89] P-1 Steam Plant Mechanicals ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [88] P-1 Steam Plant Building $ [62] SLN25UZ513 (UG) $ [79A] SLN25ZA57 (TP) $.48 [6] SLN25ZZ472 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [79A] SLN25ZA57 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [8] SLN25ZA571 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [75] SLN25ZZ566 (UG) $.9 [8] SLN25ZA571 $ [88] P-1 Steam Plant Building $ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [65] SLN25BC514 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [74D] SLN25SE565 (SP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [63] SLN25ZA514 (TP) $ [65] SLN25BC514 (TP) $ [87] SLN25ZZ629 (TP) $ [63] SLN25ZA514 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [74E] SLN25SE565 (SP) $.27 [66] SLN25ZD514 (TP) $ [64] SLN25BB514 (TP) $ [74D] SLN25ZD565 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [64] SLN25BB514 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [68] SLN25UZ516 (UG) $.27 [69] SLN25SZ517 (SP) $.27 [7] SLN25UZ52 (UG) $.27 [71] SLN25UZ521 (UG) $.27 [81] SLN25ZA1416 (TP) $.27 [72] SLN25ZZ563 (TP) $ [73] SLN25UZ564 (UG) $ [74A] SLN25SA565 (SP) $.27 [74B] SLN25ZB565 (TP) $.27 [74C] SLN25SC565 (SP) $ [74D] SLN25ZD565 (TP) $ [87] SLN25ZZ629 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [67] SLN25ZZ515 (TP) $ [66] SLN25ZD514 (TP) $?? ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / S1 S2 S3 SEV [67] SLN25ZZ515 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [69] SLN25SZ517 (SP) $$ ND / Minor / Moderate / Severe / [74C] SLN25SC565 (SP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [74B] SLN25ZB565 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [81] SLN25ZA1416 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [74A] SLN25SA565 (SP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / [72] SLN25ZZ563 (TP) $$ ND/ Minor / Moderate / Severe / inal Bayesian Network Storm Severity Sea Level Rise Score Card: 217 Nodes (boxes) 2 Risk drivers 95 Asset damage 97 unction 23 Capability 3 Mission performance 437 Edges (lines) 13,68 Probabilities BUILDING STRONG Slide 22 of 6

ability score ability score Capability score Mission Performance Capability Index score P(Service interruption SLR) inal Risk Assessment Results 1..8.6.4.2. Service Interruption Pier 11: Capabilities.

23 ability score ability score Capability score Mission Performance Capability Index score P(Service interruption SLR) inal Risk Assessment Results Service Interruption Pier 11: Capabilities Sea-level Rise (m) Water Access Steam North Berth Oily Waste Electric Wastewater BUILDING STRONG.4 Slide 23 of Loss in Capability Potable Water - All Piers Sea-level Rise (m) Tipping point is between.5 and 1. m SLR Pier 11 Electricity Tipping point => where.8changes in SLR resulted in significant increases in probabilities.6 of damage and mission impairment Burks-Copes et. al. (214) (in review) S1 S2 S3 S S2.4 Access - All Piers Loss in Mission Performance S1 S2 S Pier Pier 2.12 Sea-level Rise (m) Pier 14.2 Pier 12 Electricity Sea Level Rise (m).6 S1 S2

Burks-Copes et al. 214 (in press) Case Study #2 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) Who and what is exposed to flood risk? Where is the flood risk?

24 Burks-Copes et al. 214 (in press) Case Study #2 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) Who and what is exposed to flood risk? Where is the flood risk? What are the appropriate strategies and measures to reduce flood risk and how do they align with each other and other regional plans? What is the relative cost of a particular measure compared to the anticipated risk reduction? What data are available to make a RISK IORMED decision? What data gaps exist/can be closed through the NACCS? inal report is undergoing internal agency reviews now, and will be released in January 215 BUILDING STRONG Slide 24 of 6

25 NACCS Exposure and Risk Assessment 1. Rising sea levels and climate change are expected to have a profound effect in the study area. Impacts will likely include: Shoreline retreat from erosion and inundation Increased frequency and magnitude of storm-related flooding, Temperature changes, and Saltwater intrusion into the estuaries and aquifers 2. or the NACCS, coastal flooding risks are being captured using composite indices. Exposure => the presence of people, infrastructure, and/or environmental resources (receptors to the hazard) affected by potential coastal flooding. Risk => Exposure * Probability of looding USACE High Scenario uture Mean Sea Level Mapping for Reach NY-NJ-1 (USACE 215 in review) BUILDING STRONG Slide 25 of 6

26 NACCS Exposure and Risk Assessment 1. Model storms + SLR and determine extent of inundation Reach NY-NJ-1 EMA Very High Impact Area Category 1 4 Water Level (USACE 215 in review) BUILDING STRONG Slide 26 of 6

27 NACCS Exposure and Risk Assessment 1. Model storms + SLR and determine extent of inundation 2. Develop exposure indices: Population and Infrastructure Exposure the number of people and infrastructure in communities subject to flooding: Reach NY-NJ-1 Population and Infrastructure Exposure Index (USACE 215 in review) BUILDING STRONG Slide 27 of 6

28 NACCS Exposure and Risk Assessment 1. Model storms + SLR and determine extent of inundation 2. Develop exposure indices: Population and Infrastructure Exposure the number of people and infrastructure in communities subject to flooding: Social Exposure - populations that may have more difficulty preparing and responding to flooding Reach NY-NJ-1 Area Social Vulnerability Characterization Exposure Index (USACE 215 in review) BUILDING STRONG Slide 28 of 6

29 NACCS Exposure and Risk Assessment 1. Model storms + SLR and determine extent of inundation 2. Develop exposure indices: Population and Infrastructure Exposure the number of people and infrastructure in communities subject to flooding: Social Exposure - populations that may have more difficulty preparing and responding to flooding Environmental and Cultural Exposure - critical habitat, wetlands and other environmental and cultural resources Reach NY-NJ-1 Environmental and Cultural Resources Exposure Index (USACE 215 in review) BUILDING STRONG Slide 29 of 6

30 NACCS Exposure and Risk Assessment 1. Model storms + SLR and determine extent of inundation 2. Develop exposure indices: Population and Infrastructure Exposure the number of people and infrastructure in communities subject to flooding: Social Exposure - populations that may have more difficulty preparing and responding to flooding Environmental and Cultural Exposure - critical habitat, wetlands and other environmental and cultural resources 3. Generate a composite exposure score Reach NY-NJ-1 Composite Exposure Index (USACE 215 in review) BUILDING STRONG Slide 3 of 6

31 NACCS Exposure and Risk Assessment 1. Model storms + SLR and determine extent of inundation 2. Develop exposure indices: Population and Infrastructure Exposure the number of people and infrastructure in communities subject to flooding: Social Exposure - populations that may have more difficulty preparing and responding to flooding Environmental and Cultural Exposure - critical habitat, wetlands and other environmental and cultural resources 3. Generate a composite exposure score 4. Produce a risk map - assume that greater vulnerability is based on proximity to flooding source Multiply value in each pixel of the composite exposure grid by the probability of flooding Reach NY-NJ-1 NACCS Risk Assessment (USACE 215 in review) BUILDING STRONG Slide 31 of 6

Case Study #3 Quantify Performance of NNB for NACCS Task 1: Characterize Natural and Nature-Based eature(nnb) Contribution to Resilience and Risk Reduction Task 1A: Define resilience with respect to

32 Case Study #3 Quantify Performance of NNB for NACCS Task 1: Characterize Natural and Nature-Based eature(nnb) Contribution to Resilience and Risk Reduction Task 1A: Define resilience with respect to NNBs Task 1B: Identify characteristics of natural systems Task 1C: Identify categories of NNB that contribute to resilience Task 2: Data Integration and Metrics for NNBs Task 2A: Data integration Task 2B: Develop performance metrics for NNB Task 2C: Develop vulnerability metrics Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Task 3: Evaluation ramework for NNB Task 3A: Develop evaluation framework Task 3B: Apply the NNB evaluation framework Task 3C: Demonstrate of ecosystem goods & services assessment Goal: Assist the USACE Baltimore District in obtaining scientifically defensible justification to incorporate Natural and Nature-Based eatures (NNB) into the District s current management portfolio and acquire the necessary knowledge and methodologies to integrate NB into tactical and strategic planning initiatives in a post-sandy planning environment. BUILDING STRONG Slide 32 of 6

NACCS Natural and Nature-Based eatures: Multi-Disciplinary Team Project Leaders: Paul Wagner (IWR) Todd Bridges (EL) Task Leaders: Kelly Burks-Copes (EL) Craig ischenich (EL) Edmond Russo (EL)

33 NACCS Natural and Nature-Based eatures: Multi-Disciplinary Team Project Leaders: Paul Wagner (IWR) Todd Bridges (EL) Task Leaders: Kelly Burks-Copes (EL) Craig ischenich (EL) Edmond Russo (EL) Deborah Shafer (EL) Ty Wamsley (CHL) Study Team Members: Scott Bourne (EL) Pam Bailey (EL) Kate Brodie (EL) Zach Collier (EL) Sarah Miller (EL) Patrick O Brien (EL) Candice Piercy (EL) Bruce Pruitt (EL) Burton Suedel (EL) Lauren Dunkin (CHL) Ashley rey (CHL) Mark Gravens (CHL) Linda Lillycrop (CHL) Jeff Melby (CHL) Andy Morang (CHL) Cheryl Pollock (CHL) Jane Smith (CHL) Jennifer Wozencraft (CHL) Emily Vuxton (IWR) Jae Chung (IWR) Michael Deegan (IWR) Michelle Haynes (IWR) Lauren Leuck (IWR) David Raff (IWR) Lisa Wainger (U. Maryland) Sam Sifleet (U. Maryland) BUILDING STRONG Slide 33 of 6

Multiple Lines of Defense Natural features are created and evolve over time through the actions of physical, biological, geologic, and chemical processes operating in nature.

The relationships and interactions among the natural and built features comprising the coastal system are important variables determining coastal vulnerability, reliability, risk, and

Nature-based features are those that may mimic characteristics of natural features but are created by human design, engineering, and construction to provide specific services such as

34 Multiple Lines of Defense Natural features are created and evolve over time through the actions of physical, biological, geologic, and chemical processes operating in nature. Natural coastal features take a variety of forms, including reefs (e.g., coral and oyster), barrier islands, dunes, beaches, wetlands, and maritime forests. The relationships and interactions among the natural and built features comprising the coastal system are important variables determining coastal vulnerability, reliability, risk, and resilience. Nature-based features are those that may mimic characteristics of natural features but are created by human design, engineering, and construction to provide specific services such as coastal risk reduction. The built components of the system include nature-based and other structures that support a range of objectives, including erosion control and storm risk reduction (e.g., seawalls, levees), as well as infrastructure providing economic and social functions (e.g., navigation channels, ports, harbors, residential housing). BUILDING STRONG Slide 34 of 6

35 Natural and Nature-Based Infrastructure at a Glance Reguero et al. 214 (in press) BUILDING STRONG Slide 35 of 6

36 Services Plan Plans SB1 NNB 1 NNB 2 NNB 3 ALL Comparisons S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 Bulkhead (B1) BUILDING STRONG Slide 36 of 6 Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

37 Services Plan Plans SB1 NNB 1 NNB 2 NNB 3 ALL Comparisons S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 Emergent Herbaceous Marsh (GI 1) Bulkhead (B1) BUILDING STRONG Slide 37 of 6 Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

38 Services Plan Plans SB1 NNB 1 NNB 2 NNB 3 ALL Comparisons S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 Submerged Breakwater (Nearshore Berm/Oyster Reef/Sill) (GI 2) BUILDING STRONG Slide 38 of 6 Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (GI 3) Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

39 Services Plan Comparisons Plans S1 S2 SB1 NNB 1 NNB 2 NNB 3 ALL S3 S4 S5 S6 Emergent Herbaceous Marsh (GI 1) Submerged Breakwater (Nearshore Berm/Oyster Reef/Sill) (GI 2) Bulkhead (B1) BUILDING STRONG Slide 39 of 6 Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (GI 3) Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

IMPLEMENTATION EVALUATION Iterate as Needed ORGANIZATIONAL ALIGNMENT Natural and Nature-Based eatures Evaluation and Implementation ramework Bridges et al.

40 IMPLEMENTATION EVALUATION Iterate as Needed ORGANIZATIONAL ALIGNMENT Natural and Nature-Based eatures Evaluation and Implementation ramework Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Identify and Organize Stakeholders, Partners and Authorities Define Physical and Geomorphic Setting Assess Vulnerability and Resilience Identify NNB Opportunities Identify NNB Alternatives ormalize NNB Objectives Define NNB Performance Metrics Evaluate NNB Alternatives Tier 1 Advance through Tier 2 Tiers as Tier 3 Appropriate Select NNB Alternatives Design Implementation Plan: Elaborate Operational and Engineering Practices Implement NNB Alternative Monitor for Performance and Assess Ecosystem Goods and Services BUILDING STRONG Slide 4 of 6 eedback

41 Spiral-Based Process Adapted from Burks-Copes 214 BUILDING STRONG Slide 41 of 6 Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

and success ocus on the production of ecosystem goods & services (EGS) Ecosystem Production unctions offer a nonmonetized, scalable approach

42 Goal of this effort.... How do we measure resilience? Blended solutions (gray and green infrastructure) producing a full array of benefits We must identify and develop metrics to measure the performance and success ocus on the production of ecosystem goods & services (EGS) Ecosystem Production unctions offer a nonmonetized, scalable approach Trade-offs between monetizable and nonmonetizable benefits must be anticipated & handled transparently How do we define the service area? How do we account for competing EGS? How do we determine Intermediate vs. inal EGS? BUILDING STRONG Slide 42 of 6

Key Definitions Performance Metrics are specific measures of production or indicators of system response that can be used to consistently estimate and report the anticipated consequences of an

43 Key Definitions Performance Metrics are specific measures of production or indicators of system response that can be used to consistently estimate and report the anticipated consequences of an alternative plan with respect to a particular planning and engineering objectives. They articulate the exact information that will be collected, modeled, elicited from experts, or otherwise developed and presented to decision makers to characterize plan performance and engineering designs. They must provide the ability to distinguish the relative degree of ecosystem response (conveyed in terms of impacts or benefits) across alternatives and designs, either qualitatively or quantitatively, in ways that make sense and will help decision makers consistently and transparently compare alternatives and designs. Good performance metrics are: Complete and concise Transparent and unambiguous Accurate Direct Understandable Operational BUILDING STRONG Slide 43 of 6 Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

Key Definitions Ecosystem Goods and Services are tangible items or intangible commodities generated by self-regulating or managed ecosystems whose composition, structure, and function are comprised

EGS can be derived from either built or natural capital (or a combination of the two) 2. Their value is simply a way to depict their importance or desirability to the consumers. 3.

44 Key Definitions Ecosystem Goods and Services are tangible items or intangible commodities generated by self-regulating or managed ecosystems whose composition, structure, and function are comprised of natural, nature-based and/or structural features that produce socially-valued benefits that can be utilized either directly or indirectly to promote human well-being. Key Take-home points: 1. EGS can be derived from either built or natural capital (or a combination of the two) 2. Their value is simply a way to depict their importance or desirability to the consumers. 3. The ability of ecosystems to provide goods and services is dependent on critical ecosystem processes tied to structure and function either alone or in concert. Bridges et al. 214 (in press) BUILDING STRONG Slide 44 of 6

45 eature List (3 Total) Natural and Nature-based eatures 1. Beach (sand, gravel, cobble) 1. Maritime forest 2. Mudflat / sandflat 11. Submerged aquatic vegetation (seagrass, other - fresh or saline) 3. Bluff (any material, if sand assume eroding dune) 12. Riparian buffer 4. Dune / swale complex 13. Emergent herbaceous marsh / wetland (fresh) 5. Salt marsh (emergent herbaceous) 14. Shrub-scrub wetlands (fresh) 6. Shrub-scrub wetlands (brackish) 15. looded swamp forest (fresh) 7. looded swamp forest (brackish) 16. Pond 8. Maritime grassland 17. Terrestrial grassland 9. Maritime shrubland 18. Terrestrial shrubland 19. Terrestrial forest Natural and Nature-based Complexes 2. Reef, intertidal or submerged (also see breakwater) 21. Breakwater, subaerial or emergent (nearshore berm, sill, reef, can contain oysters, rock, shells, mussels, SAV, emergent or herbaceous vegetation) 22. Breakwater, submerged (nearshore berm, sill, artificial reef - if containing living organisms or plants, see reef) 23. Island (can include one or more of beach, dune, breakwater, bluff, marsh, maritime forest, other veg 24. Barrier island (can include one or more of beach, dune, breakwater, bluff, marsh, maritime forest, other veg) 25. Living shoreline (vegetation w/ sills, benches, breakwaters, etc.) Built eatures 26. Levee 27. Storm surge barrier 28. Seawall / revetment / bulkhead 29. Groin 3. Breakwater BUILDING STRONG Slide 45 of 6 Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

46 Performance can be characterized by the production of ecosystem goods and services.... Structure & Composition Ecosystem Processes & unctions Service Provision Goods and Services Human Well-being Benefits Natural and Nature-based eatures Values Structural eatures Policy & Decision Making Value Perceptions Driving orces Societal Response BUILDING STRONG Slide 46 of 6 Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

47 Service List (21 Total Presented Alphabetically) 1. Aesthetics - appreciation of natural scenery (other than through deliberate recreational activities), Inspiration for culture, art and design 2. Biological diversity (biodiversity) 3. Carbon sequestration 4. Clean water provisioning (sediment, nutrients, pathogens, salinity, other pollutants) 5. Commercial harvestable fish and wildlife production 6. Cultural heritage and identity - sense of place and belonging, spiritual and religious inspiration 7. Education and scientific opportunities (for training and education) 8. Erosion protection and control (water and wind, any source) 9. Habitat for fish and wildlife provisioning (nursery, refugium, food sources, etc.) BUILDING STRONG Slide 47 of 6 1. Increase or maintain land elevation, landbuilding, sediment source reduction 11. Maintain background suspended sediment in surface waters 12. Nutrient sequestration or conversion 13. Property value protection 14. Provision and storage of groundwater supply 15. Raw materials production (timber, fiber and fuel, etc.) 16. Recreation - opportunities for tourism and recreational activities 17. Reduce hazardous or toxic materials in water or landscape 18. Reduce storm surge and related flooding 19. Reduce the peak flood height and lengthen the time to peak flood 2. Reduce wave attack 21. Threatened and Endangered species protection Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

48 Services Table Approach or a Given NNB eature or Complex What are we looking at? What components comprise the feature? Component 1 unction 1 Service Benefit 1 Metric 1 unction 2 Benefit 2 Metric 2 Component 2 unction 3 Service 2 Benefit 3 Metric 3 Benefit 4 Metric 4 Metric 5 BUILDING STRONG Slide 48 of 6 Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

49 Beaches for example..... BUILDING STRONG Slide 49 of 6 Bridges et al. 214 (in press)

50 Tiered Application Approach Level 1 Qualitative characterization of performance 213 Workshop Exercise 48 instruments returned (76% Response Rate) 8 Academics (1 illegible) 13 Consultants 18 ederals 9 NGOs BUILDING STRONG Slide 5 of 6 Wt B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Mean Wtd Plan A Plan B Plan C Plan D Plan E Plan Metric Average Stdev Max Min Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Relative Mean Median n Reduce storm surge and related flooding % Reduce wave attack % 9 47 Erosion protection and control % Reduce the peak flood height and lengthen the time to peak % 9 47 flood Habitat for fish and wildlife provisioning % 9 47 Threatened and Endangered species protection % 8 47 Clean water provisioning % Biological diversity % 7 47 Recreation % 6 47 Property value protection % 7 47 Reduce hazardous or toxic materials in water or landscape % 6 47 Nutrient sequestration or conversion % 6 47 Increase or maintain land elevation and land-building % 5 47 Education and scientific opportunities % 5 47 Commercial harvestable fish and wildlife production % 5 47 Aesthetics % 5 47 Provision and storage of groundwater supply % 5 47 Carbon sequestration % 5 47 Maintain background suspended sediment in surface waters % 5 47 Cultural heritage and identity % 5 47 Raw materials production % 1 47

51 Tiered Application Approach Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Level 1 Qualitative characterization of performance 213 Workshop Exercise 48 instruments returned (76% Response Rate) 8 Academics (1 illegible) 13 Consultants 18 ederals 9 NGOs Wt B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Mean Wtd Plan A Plan B Plan C Plan D Plan E Plan BUILDING STRONG Slide 51 of 6

52 Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Define Requirements for Applications Sync with Task 3A & 3B Tiered Approach Level 1 Qualitative characterization of performance Level 2 Semi-quantitative characterization of performance Wt B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Mean Wtd Plan A Plan B Plan C Plan D Plan E Plan BUILDING STRONG Slide 52 of 6

53 Structural eatures Bridges et al. 214 (in press) BUILDING STRONG Slide 53 of 6

Some of the relationships are neither direct nor linear you can produce benefits several different ways for the same service using different

54 Natural and Nature-Based eatures Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Take-Home Messages: 1. The system is complex - over 4 causal arguments are represented thus far, and we re no where near done 2. Some of the relationships are neither direct nor linear you can produce benefits several different ways for the same service using different features 3. The approach will allow us to quantify ecosystem response 4. We can also model the strength of the relationships if we so desire 5. It s a process designed to support active learning and reflection BUILDING STRONG Slide 54 of 6

55 Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Define Requirements for Applications Sync with Task 3A & 3B Tiered Approach Level 1 Qualitative characterization of performance Level 2 Semi-quantitative characterization of performance Level 3 Quantitative characterization of performance BUILDING STRONG Slide 55 of 6

56 Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Define Requirements for Applications Sync with Task 3A & 3B Tiered Approach Level 1 Qualitative characterization of performance Level 2 Semi-quantitative characterization of performance Level 3 Quantitative characterization of performance Option 1: Value Transfer ($ Value per acre) Ecosystem Service Values Based on Peer-Reviewed Original Research in Temperate North America/Europe (212 $/(ac*yr)) Coastal Shelf Beach Estuary Saltwater Wetland orest Grass/ Rangelands Cropland reshwater Wetland Open resh Water Riparian Buffer Urban Greenspace Gas/Climate Regulation n/a Disturbance Regulation Water Regulation Water Supply Soil ormation n/a n/a 7 n/a Nutrient Cycling n/a Waste Treatment n/a 7322 Pollination n/a n/a n/a Biological Control n/a Habitat/Refugia Aesthetic/Recreation Cultural/Spiritual Ecosystem Service Values Based on Peer-Reviewed Original Research, Grey Literature, and Meta-analysis Studies in Temperate North America/Europe (212 $/(ac*yr)) Coastal Shelf Beach Estuary Saltwater Wetland orest Grass/ Rangelands Cropland reshwater Wetland Open resh Water Riparian Buffer Urban Greenspace Gas/Climate Regulation n/a Disturbance Regulation Water Regulation Water Supply Soil ormation n/a n/a 6 4 n/a Nutrient Cycling 869 n/a Waste Treatment n/a Pollination n/a n/a n/a Biological Control 24 n/a Habitat/Refugia Aesthetic/Recreation Cultural/Spiritual Urban/ Barren Urban/ Barren BUILDING STRONG Slide 56 of 6

57 Bridges et al. 214 (in press) Define Requirements for Applications Sync with Task 3A & 3B Tiered Approach Level 1 Qualitative characterization of performance Level 2 Semi-quantitative characterization of performance Level 3 Quantitative characterization of performance Option 2: Ecosystem Production unctions 72 individual performance metrics have been developed and are ready for deployment! BUILDING STRONG Slide 57 of 6

Case Study #5: Capturing a Community s Sense of Their Resilience Community resilience is the capability to anticipate risk, limit impact, and bounce

, 214 (in press) 1. Define spatial and temporal boundaries 2. Identify benchmark and future storms 3.

58 Case Study #5: Capturing a Community s Sense of Their Resilience Community resilience is the capability to anticipate risk, limit impact, and bounce back rapidly through survival, adaptability, evolution, and growth in the face of turbulent change Self Assessment Steps: Bridges, et al., 214 (in press) 1. Define spatial and temporal boundaries 2. Identify benchmark and future storms 3. Identify critical infrastructure and facilities and a recovery goal for each 4. Identify transportation issues 5. Identify protective features 6. Calculate the overall community BUILDING STRONG Slide 58 of 6

59 Point of Contact Dr. Kelly A. Burks-Copes SERDP RC-171 Project Team Leader Environmental Laboratory US Army Engineer Research & Development Center (ERDC) 399 Halls erry Rd., Vicksburg, MS 3918 Office: , Mobile: BUILDING STRONG Slide 59 of 6

60 BUILDING STRONG Slide 6 of 6

Modeling the Effect of Sea-Level Rise on Risks to Coastal Infrastructure Using Bayesian Networks

Modeling the Effect of Sea-Level Rise on Risks to Coastal Infrastructure Using Bayesian Networks Martin T. Schultz, Ph.D. and Edmund J. Russo, Ph.D., P.E. Engineer Research and Development Center US Army