IEc. Call to Action: Do the Economic Costs of Doing Nothing Motivate Adaptation Action in Coastal Cities? James Neumann Principal June 2014

Transcription

1 IEc Call to Action: Do the Economic Costs of Doing Nothing Motivate Adaptation Action in Coastal Cities? James Neumann Principal June 2014

2 Overview What can we learn from IPCC efforts in this area? And what about the National Climate Assessment? New modeling and data that informs two key questions: How much economic value is at stake? Can I rely on the plans to reduce GHG emissions, or do I need to start adapting? 2

3 How did we think about economics and taking adaptation action in the IPCC report?

4 or if you have economics training (IPCC AR5 WGII Chapter 17)

5 Potential for High Adaptive Capacity: Hurricane Ike, Gilchrist, TX 5

6 Potential for High Adaptive Capacity: Hurricane Ike, Gilchrist, TX 6

7 What does it look like today? 7

8 IPCC s Special Report on Extreme Events SREX explicitly links disaster risk to development 8

9 SREX 9

10 Chapter 25: Coastal zone, development and ecosystems Convening Lead Authors Susi Moser (Susanne Moser Research & Consulting and Stanford University Margaret Davidson (NOAA) Lead authors Paul Kirshen (UNH) Peter Mulvaney (Green Lead Advisors) Jim Murley (South Florida Regional Planning Council) Jim Neumann (Industrial Economics, Inc.) Laura Petes (NOAA) Denise Reed (The Water Institute of the Gulf)

11 Projected Sea Level Rise and Flooding by 2050

12 Economic Disruption Nationally important assets, such as ports, tourism, and fishing sites, in alreadyvulnerable coastal locations, are increasingly exposed to sea level rise and related hazards. This threatens to disrupt economic activity within coastal areas and the regions they serve and results in significant costs from protecting or moving these assets.

13 Coast-to-Inland Economic Connections

14 Uneven Social Vulnerability Socioeconomic disparities create uneven exposures and sensitivities to growing coastal risks and limit adaptation options for some coastal communities, resulting in the displacement of the most vulnerable people from coastal areas.

15 Uneven Social Vulnerability

16 Implications for Environmental Justice SoVI Results 16

17 Implications For Environmental Justice: SLR Responses By Social Vulnerability Index Category 17

18 Area at risk of SLR and storm surge Tampa area 18

19 What if Tampa adapts to these threats? 19

20 Costs of efficient adaptations to SLR and storm surge 20

21 How costs are reduced by GHG mitigation policy 21

22 Cumulative benefits of mitigation policy in the US (IF cities and towns adapt efficiently) 22

23 Cumulative benefits of mitigation: economically efficient adaptation vs. no adaptation 23

24 Economic implications for the US of adapting (or not) Adaptation Option Full Cost- Effective Adaptation No Adaptation or Protection Scenario Discounted Cost (3% DR, billion 2005$, 2015 base year) Reference (BAU) $690 Mitigation Policy 3.7 $669 Benefits $21 Benefits (percent change) 3.0% Reference (BAU) $4,250 Mitigation Policy 3.7 $4,024 Benefits $226 Benefits (percent change) 5.3% 24

25 Take home messages Don t assume you can adapt to all climate change there will be residual risks (see IPCC) The US is highly vulnerable, in economic terms, to coastal threats; social vulnerability is also higher than you might think (see NCA) Mitigating GHGs will help reduce the threat but it will take time to have a significant impact (see new EPA work) Adaptation in the coastal zone, in general, is a very cost effective option, particularly in densely populated areas the sooner you start, the better off you ll be. 25