Disaster Mitigation Strategies

Transcription

1 Disaster Mitigation Strategies Team members Bill Read Lixion Avila Jose Rubiera Andrew Burton Dale Destin USA USA Cuba Australia Antigua

2 ITWC VI key mitigation recommendations WMO assist developing countries in hazard assessment, risk mapping, and TC exercise design and execution. Add Disaster Mitigation/social science track for IWTC VII Regional workshops on Total (effective) Warning System Several training recommendations with related material for mitigation

3 Mitigation Definitions To moderate in force, alleviate. Regards to risk efforts taken to reduce the probability or consequences of a threat.

4 Weather Modification Will not be considered in this talk

5 Questions How many of you know what wind speed your house is designed to resist? How many know what their flood risk is (e.g. 1/500)? How many of you have a family disaster plan?

6 Denial 6

7 Is not just a River in Africa! Rare events low probability of occurrence but high probability of severe impact Denial a natural human response to above If unprepared for the threat REactive rather than PROactive response by the public (Rita evacuation in Houston) 7

8 Assumption Coastal Population Growth Lack of Hurricane Experience

9 Assumption 2 Fatalities trending down due to warnings and successful evacuation planning Damage trending upurban growth near the coast

10 Societal issues impacting mitigation Underestimation of risk High risk land use ~75% U.S. petrochem industry in surge zone Inadequate building code Population/infrastructure growth increases lead time for evacuation decisions trumping the increased accuracy in track forecast.

11 Lesson not learned: The 100 Year Event does not mean absolute protection 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year yr 10% 4% 2% 1%.2%

12 Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates, 6/10/01 pm

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14 Storm Surge we will be back But should we???

15 Rebuild always more expensive One week after Ike June

16 Mitigation Strategy Land use policy Choose higher return frequency for lower limit of development (500 yr vs 100yr) Build critical facilities outside evacuation areas (e.g. hospitals, nursing homes, prisons) Design in evacuation strategy

17 Building Code 1. Catastrophic failure of one to two story wood frame buildings was observed. 2. The wood frame gable ends of roof structures were found to be especially failure prone. 3. Roof cladding damage throughout the areas was pervasive. 4. Breaching of the building envelope (led to) blowouts of walls and roofs. 1. All wooden houses above one story in height, were either beaten down or shattered. 2. Many gable ends of houses were blown out. 3. All tiled and slated houses, without exception, were more or less stripped of their coverings. 4. When the front was stripped, the wind blowing under the roof, burst the back part out 1992 FEMA Report on Hurricane Andrew South Carolina Gazette report on 1752 Charles Town hurricane (Ramsay 1809)

18 Institute for Building and Home Safety Research Facility

19 Mitigation Strategy better building code World wide housing stock not built to withstand likely winds from TC Engineering design for wind readily available Building materials/techniques allow for inexpensive solution to wind resistance Need community leadership to embrace 19

20 Mitigation Strategy education preparedness Ourselves! Decision makers Emergency managers/civil defence Public/media

21 Hurricane Preparedness The battle is won outside the hurricane season!

22 Our partners

23 Suggested recommendations Advocate better land use policy Advocate TC resistant building code Consider joint workshops on mitigation with EM community Develop mitigation resource guide for member nation meteorologists