Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP Estero Bay Agency on Bay Management Cela Tega December 12, 2016

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1 Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP Estero Bay Agency on Bay Management Cela Tega December 12, 2016

2 National Estuary Programs Each of the 28 NEP logos represents broad local partnerships which include citizens, scientists, businesses, industry and government at all levels. We implement local solutions to complex water quality, habitat and living resource problems.

3 Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan SG-Q: Build capacity for communities and their local leadership to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change through joint efforts.

4 Why Charlotte Harbor NEP? Host SWFRPC 2 decades of storm surge modeling & hurricane planning yr & yr droughts Category 4 landfalling storm; Hurricane Charley. Climate-aware population.

5 Photo by Catherine Corbett, CHNEP

6 North Captiva Island breach USGS photo Mote Marine Laboratory Brad Robbins, Michelle Gitfler, Anamari Boyes

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8 Projects in support of SG-Q SWF Feasibility Study Assessment (2006) Vulnerability Assessment (EPA ) Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE ) CC Environmental Indicators (CRE ) Model Ordinances/Comp Plan (CRE ) Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend ( ) Seagrass response to SLR (2009) Salt Marsh Adaptation ( ) Lee County Resiliency Plan ( ) Conceptual Ecological Models (CRE ) Mangrove Adaptation ( )

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10 NOAA Tide Station in Fort Myers Rate of change = approximately 1 inch per decade Mean Sea Level Trend from NOAA Tide Station at Fort Myers

11 Patterns of Average Temperature

12 In the last 100 years, SW Fl has: Increased avg air temp 1.2 o F, Arcadia 0. Increased annual # days >90 o F by 12. No change in total rainfall. Increased % rain in rainy season by 6. Increased sea level by 8 inches.

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16 Significant Potential Climate Changes & Grouped Effects Air Temperature and Chemistry Water Temperature and Chemistry Climate Instability Altered Hydrology Sea Level Rise Geomorphic Changes Habitat and Species Changes Land Use Changes Human Economy Human Health Infrastructure Variable Risk

17 Vulnerabilities SWFRPC Grouped Vulnerabilities Altered Hydrology Storm Severity/Climate Instability Water Temperature & Chemistry Habitat and Species Changes Sea Level Rise Geomorphic (Landform) Changes Air Temperature & Chemistry Infrastructure Human Economy Human Health Land Use Changes Variable Risk Citizen Priority Vulnerabilities Habitat Degradation Inadequate Water Supply Flooding Unmanaged Growth Water Quality Degradation Education Lack of Money/Finance Economy Fire Insurance

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19 Potential Impacts of Climate Change Critical Facilities Emergency services Communications Solid waste Water supply and wastewater Transportation Energy supply Climate Change Drivers and Stressors Cultural Resources Historic districts Lighthouses Human Health Weather-related mortality Infectious diseases Air Quality: respiratory illnesses Water Resources Changes in water supply Water quality Increased competition for water Economic Activities Agriculture Forestry Tourism Building Ocean economy Mining Coastal Resources Erosion of beaches Inundate coastal lands Costs to defend communities Wildlife and Ecosystems Shift in ecological zones Loss of habitat and species Damage to habitats

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23 Landward Migration of seagrass in Charlotte Harbor East/West

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26 1953

27 2009

28 Salt Marsh Change Alligator Creek Salt Marsh Restoration Project: $2,055, acres increase, in 6 years.

29 Smokehouse Bay 1953

30 Smokehouse Bay 2015

31 Mangrove Condition Map Red=Stressed, Green=Healthy

32 Mangrove Linkages High=Green Medium=Yellow Low=Red

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38 Recommended Mangrove Restoration Projects in Estero Bay Watershed Bayside Estates Canal Mangroves Big Hickory Island Mangrove Heart Attack Island Park Mitigation Mangrove South Ostego Bay Preserve Port Carlos Cove Break the berm along the canal to allow flow. Culvert or bridge CR 865. Create tidal channel using 1950s aerals for guidance. Investigate for herbicide application overwash from Melaleuca treatment. Culvert canal berm to restore hydrologic flows. Channel to the East is restricted and could be reopened.

39 Recommended Mangrove Restoration Projects in San Carlos Bay Watershed Bunche Beach South Bunche Beach West Bunche Beach East Punta Rassa Mangrove Heart Attack Bunche Beach North Punta Rassa Creek Buttonwood Key Shell Point Southwest Shell Point West St. Jude Trail Pine Island Eagle Preserve Jewfish Creek Shell Point East Culvert John Morris Road, connecting tidal creek to Bunche Beach East. Bridge Summerlin Road at creek west of Connie Mack Island. Culvert John Morris Road, connecting tidal creek to Bunche Beach South. Culvert Summerlin to improve flows. Boxed in mangrove. John Morris Road with its canal short circuited hydrologic flows. Culverts may not be enough. Review overland flows. Bridge Summerlin over tidal creek. Culverts on causeway. Use Mosquito ditches to increase flow. Culvert Shell Point Road. Culvert underneath trail. Restore mosquito control ditches so that the mangroves are no longer boxed in. Restore mosquito control ditches and spool to allow overland flow into mangroves. This is an opportunity to establish a reference site for mangrove health on Pine Island. Excessive S-79 Discharges may have physical and turbidity damage to tidal creek. Flow control issue. Culvert Shell Point Road.

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41 Florida Friendly Yards Workshops-Rural Communities Wauchula and Arcadia

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45 Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP, retired Estero Bay Agency on Bay Management Cela Tega December 12, 2016 Contact through: Jim Beever,