Going Beyond Setsuden

Transcription

1 Going Beyond Setsuden 13 March 2013 IEA, Paris, France Choices, Decisions and Lifestyles: Designing Energy Efficiency Policies Informed by Social Science The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Yukari Yamashita Board Member, Director Energy Data and Modelling Center

2 Before and after Setsuden From Cool Biz (June 2005) to Electricity Saving in Japanese Super Cool Biz (May 2011) No more ties for men in the summer means no more blanket for ladies in the office 2

3 Looking Back at Summer 1979 Prime Minister Ohira and Energy Saving Jacket in June 1979 in front of the Prime Minister s office. Not popular at all 2000 Former Prime Minister Hata June 1979 Prime Minister Ohira Prime Minister Hata (Right) preferred to wear similar suit to promote during 90s. Did not attract others 3

4 School Uniforms were already Cool Biz Well, then, other uniforms also 4

5 What was behind Cool Biz? Initiative to achieve the environment goal. Based on the failed attempt during the 2 nd oil crisis (1979-) Prime Minister Ohira s Energy Saving Look. Prime Minister Koizumi assigned Environment Minister, Ms. Koike to design the initiative (2005) Open recruitment and public voting for naming Cool Biz. Effective PR strategy (Environment Minister as a team leader) Logo design Proposal of work style, fashion and life style via different media Clear message (Taking a tie off will change the felt temperature by 2 degrees) Coordinated initiatives: Team minus 6 (sign up HP prepared) Challenge 25 Clothing manufactures prepared product line Matching with traditional changing clothes custom (summer/winter uniforms) People liked it outside of Japan UNFCCC meetings with Cool Biz. Business chance for clothing industries and retailers. More products available. 5

6 Secret of Success Failed attempt of 1979 Summer Energy Saving Look was well remembered by everybody as a big failure. A chance of success by improving the image Naming was cool. Widely accepted by the youngsters and women Through public offer, Cool Biz initiative was enthusiastically shared by participating enterprises. Winning name was created by an underwear manufacturer. Industry felt ownership 6

7 Before March 11, 2011 Before Rapidly increasing power demand was not questioned. Cooling (warming) the office/shops/restaurants/trains for the comfort of customers was considered as essential service. Making the power supply cleaner (low-carbon power generation) was the chosen approach to address climate change issues. Consumers were not aware of their peak demand (load curve). Building sectors (with a variety of stake holders) were not aware of their big EE improvement potential. Eco-model city (smart city) program with 13 demonstrative projects (Kita-Kyushu, Yokohama, Kyoto, etc.) was promoted under low-carbon society agenda. 7

8 Trends: Increase in Transport & Building Sectors Electrification of demand MTOE 石油換算百万トン Final Energy Demand 329 Mtoe MTOE 石油換算百万トン Mtoe First Oil 一次 Crisis 石油危機 8% 8% 9% 9% 二次石油危機 2nd Oil Crisis 25% 28% 9% 16% 12% 16% 貨物 300 Transport 運輸 旅客 業務民生 200 Building 家庭 First Oil 一次 Crisis 石油危機 13% 14% 2nd Oil 二次 Crisis 石油危機 25% 25% 10% 10% その他 Electricity 電力 都市ガス 石炭 Mtoe 18% 6% 19% 53% 61% 5% 44% 61% 44% 製造業 Industry 産業 100 3% 非製造業 0 53% 22% 68% 68% 53% 53% 石油 Oil Source: Suehiro, Energy Demand and Supply Structure of Japan All Rights Reserved IEEJ 8

9 New challenges after March 11 th 2011 How to avoid unexpected blackouts How to avoid rolling blackouts From limited areas in Japan to everywhere in Japan How to meet a big scale electricity saving requirement How to inform consumers what to do Promotion of renewable energy use Enhancement of emergency preparedness Deregulation to remove barriers Seeking all possibilities for energy mix and many other additional issues 9

10 1Q2010 3Q2010 1Q2011 3Q2011 1Q2012 3Q2012 1Q2013 3Q2013 1Q Million tons, Million b/d Million tons New challenges after March 11 th 2011 From Satellite (before/after March 11, 2011) Fossil Fuel Imports are Increasing Energy 6.0 Security Forecast Re-start of Nuclear Power Plants is Uncertain GW Setsuden Energy Mix Balance of Trade is Worsening 2,000 1, Billion yen Coal (Left axis, 100 Million tons) Oil (Left axis, Million b/d) LNG (Right axis, Million tons) Crude oil price:105$/bbl Crude oil price:115$/bbl Crude oil price:95$/bbl ? 0-1,000 Forecast Fiscal 2010 Fiscal 2011 Fiscal ,000-3,000 Macro Economy All Rights Reserved IEEJ 10

11 What were done which promoted Super Cool Biz? Cooling temperature was set at 28 degrees everywhere. Trains, shopping malls, restaurants, offices, public spaces, etc. Unbearable to wear business suit. Some offices went further and turned off air conditioning. Allowance level for casual clothing was raised among business persons. Prime Minister was the head of the campaign and cabinet members wore short sleeved colorful folklore shirts for cabinet meetings to promote the concept. Wearing no tie was unacceptable before. Office workers used to bring tie to put on whenever they meet customers and visitors while they preferred to wear no tie if they were not meeting any visitors. Stylish short sleeved shirts were made available as new product lines. Fashion magazines heavily covered such new styles and fashion shows were held. When everybody is doing it, we feel comfortable to follow. And it is considered as cool! Cool Biz period was set to match uniform change but for Super Cool Biz, starting was set one month earlier (i.e. May). In older days, we used to change clothing from winter to summer and summer to winter according to the calendar. School and other uniforms still follow the traditional custom. Publicity was carefully designed and people witnessed these publicities through different channels at different levels. Environment Ministry: Set and shared the standard as guidance. Headline News : Hawaiian aloha shirt was permitted at national government s office! 11

12 % % The Stage was Ready Urgency has been shared by having experienced the difficulty immediately after the earthquake. Preparation at home for the rolling blackout and confusion of the traffic system made citizens understand the outcome of power shortage. Building owners have recognized the big and cost-effective EE improvement potential. Power saving efforts continue. Citizens have also recognized their capability to save energy and started to enjoy tracking the record of achievement. Participants made the whole movement look like a fun. Warm Biz is not as popular yet and there is no Super Warm Biz yet either. And.. Power tariff is expected to rise % 58% 53% 72% 64% Executing Rate Expected Max Expected Min 81% 59% Executing Rate & Cooling Degree-Days % 56% 67% 71% Executing Rate Expected Max Expected Min 64% 61% 73% Executing Rate & Heating Degree-Days 12

13 Look at their Smile! Cabinet Meeting Police Station Local Government Office The Diet 13

14 Way Forward for JAPAN Big challenge! (Leadership, robust integrated policies, consensus ) Finding new Energy Mix and designing new Basic Energy Plan New task for Energy Conservation Act! Reduction of electricity peak demand to be included. Regulatory rules are revisited! Tariff restructure, deregulation of electricity market, etc. are being discussed. Regulation regarding national parks to be relaxed to enable installation of geothermal power plants New infrastructure required! Grid connection, additional bulk introduction of renewable power, distributed heat and power, etc. are being revisited and considered. Consumer behavior remains the key! Installation of smart meters, introduction of demand response scheme, etc. Survey shows that industrial sector would not endure the severe power saving efforts again (Keidanren survey (Nov. 2011)). Estimation based on consumer survey also indicates that household end-users may cease to save electricity by 2015 (Energy Conservation Committee (January 2012)) All Rights Reserved IEEJ 14

15 A new initiative to encourage people to share air conditioning by switching off a few. Average household Power Usage Share - 14:00 Summer Day - Refrigerator 23% AC Thank you Estimated by ANRE 15