Vulnerability mapping of climate sensitive systems in Germany

Transcription

1 Vulnerability mapping of climate sensitive systems in Germany A concept and its journey through the turmoil of practise Marc Zebisch PIK Potsdam, EURAC Bolzano

2 Report for the German environment agency (UBA) Objectives: global change and its impacts in Germany present degree of adaptation and adaptive capacity Vulnerability Dialog with decision-makers development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany M. Zebisch, T. Grothmann, D. Schröter, C. Hasse, U. Fritsch, W. Cramer (2005)

3 1)Concept - where we started and where we ended up 2)Results from the study 3) Conclusions

4 Concept Where we started ATEAM data and results (model outcomes for Europe) Climate Change Land-use change Agriculture Forestry Impacts on Water Biodiversity Carbon Storage Conceptual model of Vulnerability Exposure Change Direct impacts Indirect impacts Adaptive Capacity Climate Change Land-use change Etc. Water Soil Provision of -Water - food, fibre, wood Ecosystems species Water and matter fluxes communities phenology migration Ecosystem services Recreation potential Society Health Forestry Tourism Biodiversity Agriculture Forestry Water V U L N E R A B I L I T Y

5 Conceptual model of Vulnerability Exposure Direct impacts Indirect impacts Climate Change Water Soil species Provision of -Water - food, fibre, wood Ecosystems communities Land-use change Ecosystem services Water and matter fluxes phenology Recreation potential Etc. migration Adaptive Capacity Agriculture Forestry Water Society Biodiversity Carbon Storage V U L N E R A B I L I T Y Who, Where, How?

6 Conceptual model of Vulnerability Exposure Direct impacts Indirect impacts Adaptive Capacity Climate Change Land-use change Etc. Water Soil Provision of -Water - food, fibre, wood Agriculture species Model based Forestry Ecosystems communities quantitative Ecosystem services consistent methodology Society Water Biodiversity Water and matter fluxes phenology migration Recreation potential Carbon Storage V U L N E R A B I L I T Y Who, Where, How?

7 Expectations of UBA Agriculture Forestry Topic Variables Potential yield, pest + diseases, irrigation demand, crop suitability Potential yield, pest + diseases, forest fires, storm damage Water Biodiversity Tourism Human Health Traffic Groundwater level, water availability, water level in rivers Species diversity (per ecosystem, per function), ecosystem functions, connectivity of biotopes Length of ski season, swimming season, Overnight stays Frequency of heatwaves and correlation to mortality, vector borne diseases Stress on infrastructure (by extremes).

8 Expectations of UBA Agriculture Forestry Water Biodiversity Tourism Human Health Traffic Topic focus on hot topics Variables Potential yield, pest + diseases, irrigation demand, crop suitability Potential yield, pest + diseases, forest fires, storm damage Groundwater level, water availability, water level in rivers Species diversity (per ecosystem, per function), ecosystem functions, connectivity of biotopes no models available for many variables Length of ski season, swimming season, Overnight stays Frequency of heatwaves and correlation to mortality, vector borne diseases Stress on infrastructure (by extremes). No methodology for AC

9 How we ended up Exposure Direct impacts Indirect impacts Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability past trends National Reports (DWD, BFN, BFH ) Expert knowledge projections ATEAM Regional Studies Expert knowledge Compilation of existing knowledge on global change and its impacts in Germany for seven topics Ecosystem Services Only verbal link ( relevance for society ) For many topics not suitable (e.g. health, traffic) Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity Survey with focus on status and effectiveness of adaptation and perceived risk of global change (No perceived risk no future adaptation) Vulnerability Sector and regions specific. Qualitative synthesis of impacts and Adaptation/AC

10 Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity - questionnaire Per topic, per region Perceived impacts of climate change (per topic, region) History, now, short-, medium-, long term Risks and chances Adaptation Effectiveness of measure Implementation of measures (discussed implemented) Causes for implementing and constraints for not implementing specific measures (e.g. financial, legislative, administrative ) Expense of implementation Focus on current adaptation and adaptive capacity

11 1)Concept - where we started and where we end up 2)Results from the study 3) Conclusion

12 Exposure: Climate Change in Germany Trends in the last 100 years

13 Climate change since 1900 temperature Warming since 1900: + 0,8 C 1990th warmest decade Local hot spots : South and South-West

14 Climate change since 1900 precipitation Slight increase but no significant trend In the last 30 years: Shift of precipitation to winter season High variability (inter-annual, seasonal, regional)

15 Climate change since 1900 spatial distribution a) Mean annual temperature ( T) b) Annual precipitation ( P) (from DWD data, after Gerstengarbe et al. 2003)

16 Climate change since 1900 extreme events More heat extremes (e.g. hot day and moth) Less cold extreme (e.g. ice days) More extreme precipitations in winter In summer: likely higher frequency of weather conditions with extreme precipitations Frequency of storms: No evidence of increasing frequency

17 Exposure: Climate Change in Germany Future Scenarios (-2080)

18 Multiple scenarios of global change from ATEAM 7 Scenarios 4 SRES Scenarios A1f A2 B1 B2 4 General Circulation Models (GCMs) CGCM2 CSIRO2 HadCM3 PCM X X X X X X X Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modeling Downscaling 7 climate scenarios + land use + nitrogen +... Ecosystem models Impact on Ecosystem Services Spatial extend: Europe Spatial resolution: 10 x10 (ca. 15x15km) Temporal resolution: monthly means until 2100; 30 year means for 2020, 2050, 2080

19 T [ C] Mean annual temperature Change of mean annual temperature [ C] C ( 2.2 C) C ( 1.7 C) C ( 1.3 C) Change until scenarios (HadCM3) 4 models (scenario A2) HadCM3 A1 HadCM3 B1 CGCM2 A2 HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2 CSIRO2 A2 PCM A2 Significant increase in all scenarios Uncertainty: SRES-scenarios > GCM In many scenarios: warming in SW-Germany extraordinary high

20 Mean annual temperature - map Warming since 1990 (%)

21 P [%] Annual precipitation Change of annual precipitation [%] % ( 12.9%) % ( 3.8%) % ( 10.1%) Change until scenarios (HadCM3) 4 models (scenario A2) HadCM3 A1 HadCM3 B1 CGCM2 A2 HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2 CSIRO2 A2 PCM A2 Very little change (< 10%) Uncertainty: GCM > SRES-scenario Spatial distribution of trend uncertain

22 P [%] Winter precipitation winter precipitation [%] % ( 23.0%) % ( 19.6%) % ( 14.9%) Change until scenarios (HadCM3) 4 models (scenario A2) HadCM3 A1 HadCM3 B1 CGCM2 A2 HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2 CSIRO2 A2 PCM A2 Increase of winter precipitation in all scenarios

23 P [%] Summer precipitation Change of summer precipitation [%] % ( 38.2%) % ( 20.6%) % ( 26.2%) Change until scenarios (HadCM3) 4 models (scenario A2) HadCM3 A1 HadCM3 B1 CGCM2 A2 PCM A2 HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2 CSIRO2 A2 Increase of winter precipitation in all scenarios Decrease of summer precipitations in many scenarios Shift of precipitation from summer into winter likely

24 Precipitation change until 2050 Annual precipitation Winter Summer Difference to 1990 (%) ATEAM Results

25 Extreme events Expectation: Continuation of recent trends More heat extremes (e.g. hot day and moth) Less cold extreme (e.g. ice days) More extreme precipitations in winter In summer: likely higher frequency of weather conditions with extreme precipitations Qualitative expert statements Frequency of storms: No evidence of increasing frequency

26 Impacts I Topic: Water

27 Run off status quo Klämt & Schwanitz, 2003 Run off = precipitation evapotranspiration Indicator for water surplus and availability Status quo All year: suboptimal conditions mainly in East Germany In summer: suboptimal in many regions run off mm/a

28 Q [%] Run off scenarios Change of summer run off until 2080 [%] % ( 48.5%) Change until scenarios HadCM3 A1 HadCM3 A2 ATEAM results HadCM3 B1 HadCM3 B2 CGCM2 A2 CSIRO2 A2 Decrease of water availability in summer Risk of droughts and lowering of groundwater level Highly affected: large parts of East Germany % ( 18.8%) % ( 12.1%) PCM A2 4 scenarios (HadCM3) 4 models (scenario A2) Affected: agriculture, forestry, energy production, industry, water transport...

29 Change of summer run off until 2080 [%] AVEC Summer School

30 Causes for river floods Precipitation River floods causes and status quo advective (continuing rain in larger areas ): river floods in large catchments convective (local extreme precipitation): river floods in small catchments Melting water Status quo Rhine: 1993,1995 Oder: 1997 Danube: 1999, 2002 Elbe: 2002 remarkable accumulation of 100 year river floods in the 90 th

31 River floods scenarios Mean monthly run off (Rhine, gauge Kaub) km³/month scenarios 1990 Various models + expert knowledge 2050 (HadCM3-A2) Increase of flood risk mainly in winter and spring (shift of precipitation, increase of extreme events) High uncertainty about summer river floods Lower flood risk due to melting water Regional scenarios uncertain (cause: precipitation scenarios )

32 Water summary and vulnerability Main impacts: Risk of river floods: late winter to early spring. Summer uncertain. Regions: All regions. Particular: Alpine region Water shortage In summer Regions: East Germany Adaptation River floods: medium (CC often not considered) Water shortage: low Vulnerability River floods: high in all regions Water shortage: high in central East Germany

33 Impacts II Topic: Human Health

34 General climate impact daily mortality rate in Baden-Württemberg (Schär&Jendritzky, 2004) Human health status quo Heat: cardiovascular system, respiration Cold: frostbite... Vector borne diseases: tics (Lyme borreliosis), mosquitoes.. Air: ozone, allergens (pollen) Water: water quality (cyanic alga) Extreme events (river floods, storms,...) Heatwave Aug.03 Status quo heatwave 2003: min death in Germany borreliosis cases/year (and high estimates of undetected cases) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

35 Human health (projections) (DWD, 2004) projections (no model results!) Increasing heat related problems Hot spot: SW-Germany (Upper Rhine) affected groups: elderly and ill people Decrease of stress by cold Vector borne diseases: Risk by migration of vectors to the North and in higher altitudes Risk of new vectors (e.g. Anopheles) Risk by higher infections rate High uncertainty, high risk Heat Stress by Cold Bioclimate ( ) AVEC Summer School

36 Human health summary and vulnerability Main impacts Heat related problems Regions: South-West (South-East) Group: Elderly and ill people Vector borne diseases High uncertainty, mainly in warmer regions with mild winters Adaptation Heat: medium (since 2003: warning system) Vector borne diseases: very low Vulnerability Heat: high South-West and South-East Vector:high in warmer regions

37 Vulnerability table Water Agr. Forest. Biodiv. Regions Topics Germany in total AVEC Summer School Health Tourism traffic All topics

38 1)Concept - where we started and where we end up 2)Results from the study 3) Conclusion

39 General concept Don t be afraid of qualitative approaches Uncertain numbers allow only qualitative statements too Complex phenomena can often only be assess qualitatively Hot topics are often complex Multi scenarios approach reveals uncertainties Don t be afraid of contradictions learn from historical trends and events Diversify your methods or at least: compare to others

40 Uncertainty is everywhere Uncertainty in information and knowledge on: Trends of driving forces (CO2, Land-use) ( options for mitigation) Climate system and climate impact (complexity of the system) Temperature Precipitation Extreme events Global Today Importance for adaptation Uncertainty Regional Future Year Season day Climate Change Direct impacts Indirect impact But: impacts of climate change already apparent Adaptation necessary, even under uncertain conditions!

41 Results and Communication Results Predisposition (status quo) very important Other models, other results Climate change is sometimes just an other driver Climate Change in Germany: Risks and chances Communication Uncertainty is difficult to accept ( We have seen more precise results ) Uncertainty is difficult to communicate ( How should I tell this to my minister ) It s difficult to decide under uncertainty and to adapt to uncertain conditions

42 Vulnerability Critical point: Adaptive Capacity Methodology Consideration of perceived risk Time reference AC per sector Vulnerability assessment: 90% Impact, 10% AC Vulnerability adds extra value to impact assessments Example New Orleans In future: more interdisciplinary approaches Don t forget mitigation

43 Thank you for your attention!