Evidence of climate trend effects on vegetation patterns in the US Pacific Northwest Response of epiphytic lichens from
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1 Evidence of climate trend effects on vegetation patterns in the US Pacific Northwest Response of epiphytic lichens from Linda Geiser 1, Sarah Jovan 2, Doug Glavich 1 1 US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Air Resource Management Program, PO Box 1148, 17 Corvallis, OR US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis program, (FIA) 20 SW Main, Suite 400, Portland, OR
2 Introduction The FIA Air Quality and Climate Indicator is designed to assess status and trends in air pollution and climate affecting the nation s forests and to provide evidence of ecological effects from these trends. Uses lichen community composition Which shifts as different species reach their tolerance limits. Shows response before effects on less sensitive flora can be detected. Lichens are symbiotic organisms consisting of a fungus and a photosynthetic green algal +/or blue-green bacterial partner.
3 Unique morphology and physiology underlies special sensitivity of lichens Epiphytes are little influenced by soil nutrition no roots, aerial location. Rely on atmospheric deposition for nutrients and moisture. No barrier cuticle or guard cells moisture, nutrients, and pollutants are absorbed passively over entire surface of the lichen. Dehydration concentrates pollutants Precipitation, if clean, leaches pollutants Dynamic equilibrium, fast response. Require wetting and drying for nutrient exchange between symbionts. Species are differentially adapted to hot, dry vs. cool, wet climate regimes and to atmospheric deposition of nutrients and acidity.
4 Every lichen is adapted to specific atmospheric deposition levels & chemistry Lichens of low fertility, acidic environments. Lichens of high nutrient, more alkaline environments Erin Cooper
5 so lichen species composition can be used to pinpoint a site along regional air pollution gradients. In Oregon s Willamette Valley, oligotrophic species thrive in clean air. And eutrophic species thrive where nutrient availability is greater
6 Every lichen is also adapted to a specific range of climatic conditions Sharnoff As climate becomes warmer the composition of coastal epiphytes changes dramatically
7 therefore lichen community composition can be used to pin-point a site along regional climate gradients.
8 Data collection 0.4 ha plot on the systematic national P3 grid (1 plot/96,000ac) Surveys up to 2 hours Collect sample of each species detected And rate abundance: 1 = Infrequent (< 3 thalli) 2 = Uncommon (4-10 thalli) 3 = Common (>10 thalli; covers < 50% of all boles and branches) 4 = Abundant (>10 thalli covers > 50% of all boles and branches) ID by regional taxonomic expert Lichens sampled in shaded area
9 The FIA AQ & Climate Network Jovan & McCune Eco Apps 15: Jovan & McCune Air, Water, Soil Poll. 170: McCune et al Bryologist 100: Geiser & Neitlich Env. Poll. 145:
10 Western PNW model Round 1: plots were surveyed by: FIA (23 km grid) USFS PNW regional Air Program (5.4 km grid) Round 2: Air program plots were re-surveyed Providing data for this trends analysis Geiser, L.H.; Neitlich, P.N Env Poll145:
11 Axis Axis 2: Climate 2 Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMS) ordination Coast Distance Continentality Elev Longitude Poll? 0 1 Western PNW model %RH Min Dec T Mean T Lichen %N Two major influences : air quality climate scored as distance along Axes 1 & 2 Axis 1: Axis Air 1Quality Geiser & Neitlich Env. Poll. 145:
12 Air Quality and Climate scores Round 1: Geiser, L.H.; Neitlich, P.N Air pollution and climate gradients in western Oregon and Washington indicated by epiphytic macrolichens. Environmental Pollution 145:
13 AirScore Leverage Residuals Air scores and all available measures of 10 0 atmospheric N deposition are correlated Total Inorg N kg/ha Le verage Plot Air Score 0-1 Lichen % N Air Score Mean Air Score 0.25 Summa ry of Fit RSquare 0RSquare A dj Root Mean Square Error Mean of Response Obs ervations (or Sum Wgts) -0.5 Analysis of Variance IMPROVE N -0.75Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square Model NPlagla Error Ambient 6 f ine particulate N (ug m y -1) Linear Fit C. Total Linear Fit Linear Pa rame ter Estima tes Oregon Fit and Washington forests, Linear USA. Fit Env. Poll. 158: Air Score = NPlagla Term Estimate Std Error Summa ry of Fit Intercept Summa ry of Fit Mean NH4 mg/l RSquare RSquare F Ratio t Ratio Air Score = Ambient fine partic ulate N (ug m-3 y-1) % Linear Fit Air Score Bivariate Fit of Mean Air Score By Mean NH4 mg/l Bivariate Fit of % Eutrophs By V21s_Air CMAQ total N NADP Wet N Air Score Mean NH4 mg/l Bivaria te Total Fit of Inorg Air N Score kg/ha By Leverage, NPlaglaP<.0001 Bivariate Fit of Air Score By Ambient fine particulate N Linear (ug Fit m-3 y-1) Bivariate Fit of % oligotrophs By V21s_Air 0.75 Linear Fit 100 Linear Fit Mean Air Score = Mean NH4 mg/l Air Score Prob > F Linear Fit Geiser et al Lichen-based critical loads for atmospheric nitrogen Bivariate deposition Fit of % Eutrophs By in V21s_Air western % Eutrophs % Oligotrophs Prob> t 90 ophs 60 % Eutrophs % Oligotrophs
14 Climate Change Anticipated effects PREDICTED CHANGE: Mean annual temperature to 1.5 to 3.2 C by POTENTIAL RESPONSES: A 1 o C temp Δ probability of finding some lichens 2-10 fold. Most biodiversity contributed by rare species Concern for local/regional extirpations Especially coastal (maritime) and subalpine (high elevation) species.
15 10/14/ :24 PM Mean min Dec Temp o C at round 1 Data Table=Climate Category R1=maritime,Climate Category R1=marit /14/ :24 PM Climate Cate gory R1=lowla nd lichen plots ( ) Me anmin De ctemp C Climate Cate gory R1=montane Me anmin De Data Table=Climate Category R1=low land,climate Category R1=low la 10/14/ :24 PM Cli mate Me anmin Cate gory De ctemp R1= high elevation C Data Table=Climate Category R1=montane,Climate Category R1=mont 10/14/ :24 PM Data Table=Climate Category R1=high -1 0 elevation,climate Category -8-7 R1= -6 Me anmin De ctemp C elev ation Climate Cate gory R1=montane Me anmin De ctemp C /14/ :24 PM Data Table=Climate Category R1=montane,Climate Category R1=mont /14/ :24 PM Hi Elevation Climate Cate gory R1=maritime Me anmin De ctemp C Me anmin De Me anmin De Data Table=Climate Category R1=maritime,Climate Category R1=marit Maritime Lowland Me anmin De Montane Me anmin De Me anmin De ctemp C Me anmin De
16 Change in mean annual min Dec T -2-1 (C) at 4 Climate Cate gory R1=maritime -5 ategory R1=maritime,Climate Category R1=maritime /14/ :24 PM lichen Climate plots, MeCate anmin gory DeR1=lowla c Te mp nd C vs Data Table=Climate Category R1=maritime,Climate Category R1=maritime /14/ :24 PM ategory R1=maritime,Climate Data Category Table=Climate R1=maritime Category R1=low land,climate Category R1=low land y ctemp R1=maritime C Climate Me anmin Cate gory De ctemp R1=maritime Climate MeCate anmin gory DeR1=lowla c Te mp nd C Maritime o C Montane o C Lowland o C 10/14/ :24 PM 10/14/ :24 PM ctemp C3 4 Me Me anmin anmin -8De -7De ctemp -6 c -5-4 mp C2 3C 4 Data Table=Climate Category R1=maritime,Climate Me anmin De c Te mp C Data Category Table=Climate R1=maritime Category R1=low land,climate Catego y R1= montane 10/14/ :24-8 PM Me anmin De -7 ctemp C2 3 4 Data Table=Climate Category R1=high elevation,climate Category R1=high -5 ategory R1=montane,Climate elev 4 ation Category R1=montane Cli mate Cate gory R1= high elevation Cli mate Cate gory R1= montane 10/14/ :24 PM 10/14/ :24 PM Data Table=Climate Category R1=high elevation,climate C Climate Me Me anmin Cate anmin De gory ctemp DeR1=maritime c mp C C Me anmin De c Te mp C Data Table=Climate Category R1=montane,Climate elev 4 ation Category R1=montane /14/ :24 PM ategory R1=montane,Climate Data Table=Climate Category R1=montane Category R1=maritime,Climate Category R1=maritime y ctemp R1= montane C Cli mate Cate gory R1= high elevation Me anmin De ctemp C Climate Me anmin Cate gory De ctemp R1=montane Climate Me Me anmin Cate anmin gory De ctemp DeR1=maritime c mp C C High elevation +2.0 o C Data 4 Table=Climate Category R1=low land,Climate Category R1=low land Climate Me anmin Cate De gory ctemp R1=montane C Me anmin De c Te mp C 10/14/ :24 PM 10/14/ :24 PM ctemp C3 4 Me Me anmin anmin De -6-7De -5 ctemp -6-4 c mp C 2 43 C 4 Data Table=Climate Category R1=montane,Climate Me anmin -8-7 De -6-5 c Te -4-3 mp C4 Data Table=Climate Category R1=montane Category R1=maritime,Climate Categ Climate Me Cate anmin gory De R1=lowla ctemp nd C /14/ :24 PM I means I means Me Me anmin anmin De De ctemp c mp C C Climate Cate gory R1=lowla nd 10/14/ :24 PM Me anmin De c Te mp C Data 4 Table=Climate Category R1=low land,Climate Catego 4-1 Me Me -10 Me
17 high elevation,climate Category -8-7 R1=high Change in mean annual min Dec T (C) at lichen plots, by climate zone, C Climate Cate gory R1=montane Me anmin De c Te mp C 10/14/ :24 PM Data Table=Climate Category R1=montane,Climate Categ I means for R2 High Elevation plots Me anmin De ctemp C Me a a nd low land,climate Category R1=low land I means for R1 Montane Plots -10
18 What actually happened: PRISM temperatures Warming rates with elevation Low elevations, valleys and the coast range did not warm No sites became cooler
19 What actually happened: Lichens vs Lichen community based climate scores also showed greatest increases at highest elevations.
20 Like temperature, lichen-indicated warming increased with elevation Climate change direction indicated by lichen communities ( ) N Mean elevation (m) much warmer warmer no change detected cooler much cooler
21 What actually happened: Lichens But lichen-community based climate scores show cooling where PRISM mean min Dec temps have not changed. What s happening?
22 Axis 2: Climate But what actually happened? Poll?? Elev %RH Coast Distance Continentality Longitude Lichen %N Mean T 0 1 Could shifts in other climate-axis variables be influencing lichen response? Min Dec T Axis 1: Air Quality
23 What actually happened: % RH Humidity in the high elevation Cascades Humidity in the lower elevation Cascades & Coast Ranges
24 Comparing climate & lichen responses Mean Min Dec Temp warmer temps % Relative humidity less humidity Lichen-based climate scores warmer and less humid
25 R2 climate scores were correlated with 10/5/ :45 AM Data Table=MegaDB2 Fit Y by X Group Bivaria te Fit of Clim Score R2 By Me anmin De c Te mp C 2 climate variables Bivaria Fit of Clim Score R2 By Ele v ft 2 Bivari Clim Scor er Data from Round 1 2 ( ). Low climate 0.5 scores low elevations with warm, humid 0 climates, High climate -0.5scores high elevations with cool, dry, -1 climates. MeanMin Dec Temp C lim Bivaria Score R2 te Fit By of MeClim anmin Score De c R2 TeBy mp Me an%rh C Bivaria te Fit of Clim Score R2 By Ele v ft Linear 2 Fit Linear Fit Clim Scor er2 = MeanMin Dec Temp C Summa 1 ry of Fit Clim Scor er2 RSquare 0.5 RSquare Adj r 2 adj = 0.72 Root 0 Mean Square Error Mean of Response Obs -0.5 ervations (or Sum Wgts ) Analysis of Varia nce -1 Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Ratio Model anmin Dec Temp Mean%RH C Error Prob > F C. Linear Total Fit <.0001 Linear Pa rame Fiter Estimates Clim Scor er Clim Scor er2 1.5 Linear Fit Elev ft Linear Fit 1.5 Clim ScoreR2 = Elev ft Summa ry of Fit RSquare RSquare Adj Root Mean Square Error Mean of Response -0.5 Obs ervations (or Sum Wgts ) Analysis of Varia nce -1 Source DF Sum of Squares Model Elev ft Error Linear Fit C. Total Linear Fit Pa rame ter Estimates r 2 adj = 0.23 r 2 adj = 0.66 Clim Scor er2 = Mean% RH Clim Scor er Clim Scor er Bivaria te Fit of Clim Scor An O -1 Mean Square F Ratio S M Mean%R Prob > F E Linear Fit<.0001 C Linear Fit Pa - Clim L Line Su R R R M
26 What actually happened: α-diversity Climate Score Shift Category N R1 α- diversity R2 α- diversity Δ in α- diversity α-diversity = mean species richness per survey site N = number of sites % Δ in α- diversity much cooler cooler no change warmer much warmer
27 Conclusions 1. The composition of epiphytic lichen communities are highly sensitive to climate and are used by FIA to indicate climate. 2. A preliminary analysis of 10-year trends in lichen community composition provides initial evidence of climate-driven effects on species composition & diversity of PNW lichens. 3. Since lichen monitoring began in 1993, mean min Dec temperatures have clearly increased in the mid and upper elevation Cascades, but not in the Coast Range, major river valleys or other low elevation sites. 4. Trends in lichen-community based climate scores are consistent with temperature trends data: species composition shifts indicate greatest warming effects at the highest elevations.
28 Conclusions 5. Cooler lichen-based climate scores in the Coast Range and low elevation Cascades, where temperature has not decreased, may be related to increases in relative humidity. 6. Both mean species richness at survey sites and landscape level diversity increased with warming temperatures and decreased with cooling temperatures. 7. With regard to other plant communities, these results imply that managers can expect different responses and different response rates across the landscape with differing directions and rates of change in climate variables.
29 Acknowledgements We thank! Our many dedicated field biologists who tramped through the brush and surveyed lichens The lichenologists who assisted with identifications, especially Jim Riley and Pekka Halonen. Our office staff for digitizing our data, especially Anne Ingersoll and Larissa Lasselle Our cooperators on the Gifford Pinchot, Mt. Hood, Willamette, Umpqua, and Siuslaw national forests and the Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area who helped with logistics, field support, and funding The USFS PNW Region Air Resource Management Program and USFS PNW Research Station/FIA Program for major funding and support of this work.
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