PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) APPRAISAL STAGE Report No.: THE EASTERN NILE FLOOD PREPAREDNESS AND EARLY WARNING PHASE 1 (FPEW I)

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1 Project Name PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) APPRAISAL STAGE Report No.: THE EASTERN NILE FLOOD PREPAREDNESS AND EARLY WARNING PHASE 1 (FPEW I) Region AFRICA Sector Flood Protection (WD), General water, sanitation and flood protection sector (WZ) Project ID P P Borrower(s) GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA Implementing Agency The Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) Environment Category [ ] A [ ] B [X] C [ ] FI [ ] TBD Safeguard Classification [ ] S 1 [ ] S 2 [ ] S 3 [ ] S F [ ] TBD Date PID Prepared November 29, 2006 Estimated Date of December 10, 2006 Appraisal Authorization Estimated Date of Board February 15, 2007 Approval (Grant Agreement) 1. Country and Sector Background The Eastern Nile (EN) comprises major river systems that originate in the Ethiopian highlands in the east, flow to the west into Sudan where they join the Main Nile and finally flow through Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea. Major river systems are the Abbay-Blue-Main Nile, Tekeze Setit-Atbara, and Baro- Akobo-Sobat. Inter and intra-annual variations of streamflows are highly variable with almost 80-85% of the rainfall occurring during the months June- September. Thus, concomitant with negligible flood storage in the region (except for Aswan Dam) and low capacity for national and regional flood management, the countries in the EN region are vulnerable to floods. The extensive floodplains of Sudan and areas of Ethiopia are particularly at risk. In the last decade, Sudan for example has suffered from major floods in 1994, 1996, 1998, 1999, and Potential climate changes may also impact the frequency and scale of future flooding in the EN. These major floods directly result in loss of livelihoods, particularly for the poor who frequently inhabit the vulnerable floodplain areas, and can cause significant economic damages. Floods can result in loss of crops and livestock, loss of property, displacement of communities, deterioration of health conditions, and disruption of social life. For instance, the flood of 1999 in the EN resulted in damages estimated at US$450 million. In Sudan, there are 197 communities along the Blue and Main Niles that suffer flood damages on a regular basis. In Ethiopia as many as 600 people have died, more than 35,000 people have fled their homes, and more than 118,000 people were affected by the recent floods of 2006 in various ways. Over the longer term, repeated economic disruptions associated with flooding undermines national poverty alleviation efforts, disrupts sustained economic growth, and will continue to be a source of risk that inhibits investment in economic activity. Despite the impacts and transboundary nature of river flooding in the Eastern Nile, while there is some flood warning activity in individual countries, there is no integrated or cooperative flood warning system for the Eastern Nile Basin. Moreover, current flood mitigation efforts largely focus on emergency response during major disasters. Floodplain management activities to reduce the susceptibility to flooding are also limited at the national level and there are no mechanisms to collaboratively identify or

2 plan mitigation measures at the regional level. Advance warning of imminent flood events to floodplain dwellers at the community level is limited and often ineffective. Improved capabilities to monitor and forecast rainfall and flow, particularly in the highland areas, coupled with agreed mechanisms to disseminate information regionally during critical periods could provide increased warning time downstream. This information, along with well-planned flood preparedness programs in each country, can reduce flood-related damage, human suffering, and loss of life in the region. Regional cooperation would greatly enhance the flood management in all Eastern Nile countries and provide critical experience in joint river management. This will lay a solid foundation for broader regional cooperation in integrated water resources management. The Nile Basin Initiative The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), launched in February 1999, is a regional initiative of the riparian states of the Nile 1 and provides a framework to fight poverty and promote sustainable development through improved integrated water resources management at the basin level. The Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP), which includes Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, is an investment oriented sub-basin level program. Due to the devastating impacts of hydrologic variability on the people and economies in the region, in March 2001, the Eastern Nile Council of Ministers (ENCOM) requested that funding be sought to advance work in flood management. The Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW) is an agreed project within ENSAP to take joint action on the problems of flood management in the EN. In October 2004, ENCOM decided to fast-track the FPEW project to show tangible results of Nile Basin collaboration on the ground. In 2006 it was decided to phase the implementation of FPEW, with the first phase FPEW I focused on building the institutional capacity and developing critical baseline information to enhance the readiness of EN countries to implement subsequent FPEW phases. The proposed project (FPEW I) has evolved from national and regional consultations, and has been prepared by national and regional teams. The project was endorsed by ENCOM in its 22 nd Meeting in Cairo on September 18, Objectives The development objective of the overall FPEW project (FPEW I and II) is to reduce human suffering and damages, as well as capture the benefits of excess flood waters resulting from flooding in the Eastern Nile. FPEW I will contribute directly to the development objective of the FPEW. The specific objective of FPEW I is to establish a regional institutional basis and to strengthen the existing capacities of the EN countries in flood forecasting, mitigation and management, promoting regional cooperation as well as to enhance the readiness of the EN countries to subsequent implementation of the FPEW project (i.e. FPEW II). It will prepare the foundation for FPEW II implementation in terms of institutional settings and data/information collections/sharing at community and national levels, together with enhancing regional coordination and cooperation. Key performance indicators for FPEW I will include: An established and operational regional flood coordination unit (RCFU) Pilot non-structural flood preparedness and emergency response activities implemented and assessed Piloting/to arrive at detailed specifications for a regional flood forecast, warning, and communication system completed Database/mechanism for regional data sharing on floods operational 1 Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Eritrea is an observer.

3 3. Rationale for Bank involvement The Bank has been actively engaged in supporting the NBI since its inception as a means of promoting regional stability and cooperation, and unlocking the development potential of the Nile. The FPEW I project is particularly appropriate for Bank support due to the transboundary nature of flooding, the potential to visibly demonstrate the benefits of regional cooperation, and the potential to directly impact the poor. Given its involvement and support to the NBI, the Bank is uniquely placed to assist the country in developing the project and its participation is expected to leverage additional financing from the Government and other international donors for subsequent phases of the FPEW project. The main rationale for Bank s involvement is its ability to manage the risks associated with financing the envisaged investments, as well as its access to expertise to provide technical assistance in areas of flood management and in building critically needed institutional capacity. The proposed regional institution proposed under the project would serve as an initial pilot for the proposed regional joint multi-purpose institutional development under identification under the NBI framework. Finally some of the project elements of this and subsequent phases of the project are likely to be subsumed under country specific Bank supported projects/programs. 4. Description FPEW I is planned for 3 years of implementation and will overlap with the first two years of FPEW II. It comprise three key components, namely, regional coordination (US$1.74 M), pilot flood preparedness and emergency response ($1.26 M), and flood forecasting warning and communication system (US$1.02 M). Project components (a) Regional Coordination (US$ 1.74 M) The immediate objective of this component is to put in place an institutional mechanism for enhancing regional coordination for the flood project. The regional coordination is aimed at (i) managing and implementing day to day current and future implementation phases of FPEW; (ii) coordination of data collection and analysis from the EN countries, together with other IDEN projects; (iii) functioning as a platform for experience sharing and capacity building; (iv) liaising between donors, consultants and EN countries; (v) coordinating common activities between the flood and other projects planned under integrated development of Eastern Nile (IDEN); and managing FPEW II project preparation and implementation. The outputs and activities under this component are: Establish a Regional Flood Coordination Unit (RFCU) located in Khartoum (Sudan) as a sub-office of ENTRO. This requires a headquarter agreement between ENTRO and the Government of Sudan (similar to the one ENTRO has with the Government of Ethiopia with the privileges it enjoys as in Ethiopia) and also an establishment agreement with the Government of Sudan to open a sub-office there. It is expected that for such agreements to be in place it may take around 6 months to a year. Hence the RFCU will function from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) as a transitional institution to be shifted to Sudan as soon as these agreements are concluded. An assessment will be done for the readiness at Khartoum before transitioning the office there for which the readiness conditions will be developed early in the project to use it as a check-list. Apart from what has been indicated above, the RFCU will also assist in the strengthening of national flood warning centers through facilitation of the exchange and dissemination of vital flood-related information for use at national level as well as through the provision of a mechanism for sharing of knowledge and technical skills across regions Conduct EN Annual Flood Forums to facilitate sharing of experiences among practitioners, planners, and scientists within the region and (where possible) from other river basins world-wide (such as Mekong River Basin);

4 Establish a web-based database of flood related data Information and experience exchange through study visits; Carry out regional analysis and special studies (e.g. development of a robust regionally-based methodology for flood damage assessment; assessment of the effectiveness of existing and planned regulation works on flood mitigation and their implications for reservoir operation; determination of the incidence and characteristics of flash floods; development of a flood risk reduction strategy for flood-prone areas along the Baro-Akob-Sobat rivers; facilitated development of State and local flood response plans) (b) Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response activities (US$1.26 M) Identifying and mapping at-risk communities, including the extent of flooding and the location of high risk areas, are a basic input to flood response planning as well as to analyses aimed at identifying appropriate flood mitigation measures. It is also a major input to determining community vulnerability. A priori knowledge of the likely extent and depth of expected flooding as well as knowledge of the types of assets and activities located within the floodplain are essential. Without such information and the plans to guide response in the event of a flood, the full benefits of river height forecasts cannot be realized. Flood emergency response in the EN is currently, by and large, reactive and ad hoc. This component will strengthen flood preparedness and flood mitigation planning at national and local levels through: Flood-risk mapping; Assessment of information needs by the community for effective response Facilitation of improved flood mitigation plans and mechanisms aimed at protecting property and assets Development and evaluation of effectiveness (including beneficiary assessment) of community flood preparedness and response plans. The local governments (mahaliyas in Sudan and woredas in Ethiopia) will be closely linked to piloting community flood preparedness and mitigation plans to ensure that appropriate linkages at the ground level are developed to ensure adoption of the plans at local level. (c) Flood Forecasting, Warning and Communication Systems (US$ 1.02 M) The communications element of a flood forecast and warning system is essential to its operation and the reduction of flood damages. Data has to be acquired and transmitted to the forecast center (and in some cases to the at-risk communities as well) and the resulting forecast transmitted to the local area for interpretation, value adding and disseminated to those who need to take action. The effectiveness of the system depends not only on the accuracy of the raw data and forecast but also on the lead time available to take action before the flood begins to affect the area. The design will also be based on a rapid assessment of the current communication channels from the local to the regional/national levels (formal/informal) as informed by the preparation consultants for FPEW II to target future efforts better. The design will also factor steps to enhance the communication links between upstream and downstream users. To strengthen national flood forecasting and warning capabilities this component will: Enhance current flood forecasting institution and initiate a new flood forecasting institution for Ethiopia. Enhance data acquisition and communication equipment by refining flood forecast, warning and communication system requirements, identifying appropriate approaches, technologies and equipment, and pilot these at selected communities and/or locations;

5 Prepare a detailed system design for a regional flood forecast, warning, and communication system and tender documentation for the EN. Enhance the communication links directly between upstream and downstream residents. Rapidly assess the current communication channel from the local to the regional/national levels (both formal and informal) to improve effectiveness of these channels. 5. Financing Source: ($m.) BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.6 Nile Basin Trust Fund 3.48 Total Safeguard policies (including public consultation) FPEW I project is basically a technical assistance project that aims at strengthening regional and national flood forecasting centers, trialing methods to communicate information to communities and reviewing their existing response plans to floods, as well as putting in place a regional coordination unit. No physical interventions are planned and it is thus recommended to be a category C project. No safeguard policy is triggered. 7. Contact point Contact: E.V. Jagannathan Title: Sr Water Resources Engineer Tel: Fax: = ejagannathan@worldbank.org For more information contact: The InfoShop The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) Web: