IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (TF ) ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$7 MILLION EQUIVALENT TO THE NILE BASIN INITIATIVE FOR THE

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of The World Bank IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (TF ) ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$7 MILLION EQUIVALENT TO THE NILE BASIN INITIATIVE FOR THE Report No: ICR 2447 NILE EQUATORIAL LAKES SUBSIDIARY ACTION PROGRAM (NELSAP) REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT (PHASE II) JUNE 27, 2013 Agriculture, Rural Development and Irrigation Sector (AFTA3) Sustainable Development Department Regional Integration Department Africa Region

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective) Currency Unit = US$ FISCAL Year July 1 June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agricultural NBI Nile Basin Initiative Development Programme CFA Cooperative Framework Agreement NBTF Nile Basin Trust Fund CIDA Canadian International Development NCORE Nile Cooperation for Results Project Agency CIWA Cooperation in International Waters in Africa NELCOM Nile Equatorial Lakes Council of Ministers COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa NELSAP-CU Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program - Coordination Unit DSS Decision Support System NELTAC Nile Equatorial Lakes Technical Advisory Committee EAC East Africa Community Nile-COM Nile Basin Council of Ministers of Water Resources EAGC East African Grain Council NLO National Liaison Officer ENSAP Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action PDO Project Development Objective Program ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional PMU Project Management Unit Office EWUAP Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Productivity Project RATP I Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project for Phase I FAO Food and Agriculture Organization RATP II Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project for Phase II FM Financial Management RBO River Basin Organization GA Grant Agreement RCG Regional Commodity Group HCA Horticultural Council of Africa REC Regional Economic Community ICR Implementation Completion and RPSC Regional Project Steering Committee Results Report IDA International Development SAP Subsidiary Action Program Association IFR Interim Financial Report SDBS Socio-economic Development and Benefits Sharing Project ISP Institutional Strengthening Project SVP Shared Vision Program ISR Implementation Status Report TA Technical Assistance M&E MoU Monitoring and Evaluation Memorandum of Understanding TOR TTL Terms of Reference Task Team Leader MTR Mid-term Review WRPMP Water Resources Planning and Management Project Vice President: Country Director: Sector Manager: Task Team Leader: Principal ICR Author: Makthar Diop Colin Bruce Tijan M. Sallah John Bryant Collier Nihal Fernando

3 NILE BASIN INITIATIVE NILE EQUATORIAL LAKES SUBSIDIEARY ACTION PROGRAM REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT PHASE II CONTENTS Data Sheet... i 0. Preface: Coordinated Programmatic Support for the Nile Project Context, Development Objectives and Design Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes Assessment of Outcomes Assessment of Risks to Development Outcomes Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance Lessons Learned Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners ANNEX 1 - Project Costs and Financing ANNEX 2 - Details of Project Components ANNEX 3 - RATP II Links to other NBI Projects at Appraisal ANNEX 4 - Bank s Lending and Implementation Support Process ANNEX 5 - Reassessment of Project Risks ANNEX 6 - Detail Analysis of the Achievement of the Project Development Objective ANNEX 7 - List of Project Outputs ANNEX 8 - NBI S Project Completion Report ANNEX 9 - Project Area Map... 58

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5 A. Basic Information NELSAP Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project Phase II Data Sheet Country: Africa Project Name: NELSAP Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity TA (Phase II) Project ID: P L/C/TF Number(s): TF ICR Date: 06/27/2013 ICR Type: Core ICR Lending Instrument: TAL Grantee: NILE BASIN INITIATIVE Original Total Commitment: USD 7.00M Disbursed Amount: USD 6.72M Revised Amount: USD 7.00M Environmental Category: C Implementing Agencies: Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat NELSAP-CU Cofinanciers and Other External Partners: DANIDA; AGENCE FRANCAISE DE DEVELOPPEMENT Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation European Commission (EC) Finland DFID Government of Netherlands The Canadian Government (CIDA) SIDA- Swedish International Development Agency B. Key Dates Process Date Process Original Date Revised / Actual Date(s) Concept Review: 03/12/2009 Effectiveness: 12/21/2009 Appraisal: 07/30/2009 Restructuring(s): Approval: 09/01/2009 Mid-term Review: 06/15/ /14/2011 Closing: 10/30/ /31/2012 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Risk to Development Outcome: Bank Performance: Grantee Performance: Satisfactory Substantial Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory i

6 C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory Quality of Supervision: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing Agency/Agencies: Satisfactory Overall Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Overall Borrower Performance: Satisfactory C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments (if Indicators Performance any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry Yes at any time (Yes/No): (QEA): Problem Project at any time Quality of Supervision Yes (Yes/No): (QSA): DO rating before Moderately Closing/Inactive status: Satisfactory None None Rating D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Agro-industry, marketing, and trade General agriculture, fishing and forestry sector Irrigation and drainage Public administration- Agriculture, fishing and forestry Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) Regional integration Water resource management E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Makhtar Diop Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Country Director: Colin Bruce Richard G. Scobey Sector Manager: Tijan M. Sallah Karen Mcconnell Brooks Project Team Leader: John Bryant Collier Sergiy Zorya ICR Team Leader: John Bryant Collier ICR Primary Author: Nihal Fernando ii

7 F. Results Framework Analysis Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The project development objective is to increase knowledge of Basin agriculture in NBI organizations to promote more efficient and sustainable use of water resources and economically viable investment in agriculture. Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority) (a) PDO Indicator(s) Indicator Indicator 1 : Value quantitative or Qualitative) Baseline Value Original Target Values (from approval documents) Options for NBI agricultural agenda presented to the NBI governing bodies Agricultural functions not defined Options presented to NBI governing bodies Formally Revised Target Values Actual Value Achieved at Completion or Target Years Options for NBI agricultural agenda presented to the NBI governing bodies, but as envisioned in the intermediate outcome indicator, no consensus on any exact option reached due to reasons beyond the control of the project. Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 Comments An options paper presented to NBI Governing bodies in July However, no follow-on to this is expected in the (incl. % short- to medium-term (100%). achievement) Indicator 2 : Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to increase water use productivity in basin agriculture. Value quantitative or Qualitative) Analytical tools are not adequate Model analysis & database disseminated at region, country levels Analytical tools (agriculture model integrated to DSS model) integrated to NBI systems, and information disseminated to increase water use productivity in Basin agriculture (95%) Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 Comments However, further dissemination and hands on training to NBI and country staff on the application of the analytical tools (incl. % are desirable. achievement) Indicator 3 : Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to promote agricultural trade in the Nile Basin Value quantitative or Qualitative) Basin countries and institutions lack basic tools and knowledge Analytical tools and information developed and disseminated to promote agricultural trade in the Nile Basin Analytical tool developed (agriculture trade model integrated to DSS model), disseminated to NBI members and partner organizations, and plans for sustainability established (95%) Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 Comments (incl. % achievement) Three commodity categories, 5 trade corridors studied. Uptake by commodity groups and RECS with commitment to further this work. A series of potential investments have been identified. Virtual Water/water footprint study disseminated (100%). Indicator 4 : Direct Project Beneficiaries Value quantitative or Qualitative) Date achieved 11/11/ /31/2012 Comments (incl. % Direct project beneficiaries are regional project staff, PSC and other key officials in the NBI countries. achievement) iii

8 (b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s) Indicator Indicator 1 : Value (quantitative or Qualitative) Baseline Value Original Target Values (from approval documents) Formally Revised Target Values Actual Value Achieved at Completion or Target Years One or more options identified for core agricultural functions of NBI and successor River Basin Organization, and consensus reached on roles and functions Institutional options prioritized and consensus on potential options reached by RAPT RPSC. But no Institutional options Options for agriculture functions not consensus reached on any prioritized properly defined specific option or specific agriculture roles and functions, due to reasons beyond the NBI's control (90%) Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 Comments (incl. % achievement) The current issues with the CFA prevents reaching consensus. The study would be a guide to the NBI on agricultural issues now and in future. At this stage, it is not expected to be binding on the NBI. Indicator 2 : Model that includes supply and demand blocks for Nile basin agriculture developed and integrated into the Nile Basin DSS model (100%) Value Model completed and Agricultural model in DSS is not Model and database (quantitative database integrated into DSS developed. integrated into DSS or Qualitative) (95%) Date achieved 07/30/ /12/ /31/2012 Comments (incl. % achievement) There were a few minor system bugs with the agriculture model at the closure. These have been resolved now and the model is fully integrated to Nile DSS, functional and used by the NBI Indicator 3 : Agricultural database for major crops in ten 1 countries and one information retrieval system established, integrated into DSS, and functioning Value (quantitative or Qualitative) Scattered unintegrated databases Agricultural database and information system established, integrated into DSS and functional Agricultural database and information as necessary for the integration into DSS has been established and integrated to DSS. Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 The final output was lesser than the scope of the TOR for creating complete agricultural data bases of major crops for ten Comments countries. But essential data necessary to run and validate the DSS model have been collected as defined in the PAD (incl. % achievement) (85%) 7. One report on water resources for irrigation produced for each of the seven 2 specified countries and Indicator 4 : disseminated through at least one workshop per country Value (quantitative or Qualitative) No consistent and reliable information on irrigation potential available One report on water resources for irrigation produced for each of the seven specified countries and disseminated through at least one workshop per country One report on water resources for irrigation produced for each of the seven specified countries and disseminated through at least one workshop per country Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 Comments (incl. % achievement) This target is fully achieved (100%) Indicator 5 : Best practices on water harvesting and irrigation identified by the past NBI projects and other organizations disseminated in the basin Ten user friendly best Value Practices assembled but not userfriendly with limited dissemination and disseminated at country achieved (100%) practice manuals developed This outcome is fully (quantitative or Qualitative) level by trainers Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 Comments (incl. % achievement) Training well attended by all 7 countries (target audience was reached. Report has been widely disseminated within the NBI Countries (100%) 1 The indicators and references have been updated where applicable to reflect the South Sudan joining the NBI and NELSAP thereby changing the number of countries participating from nine to ten. 2 The countries where Irrigation Potential reports were carried out are: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. iv

9 Indicator Baseline Value Original Target Values (from approval documents) Formally Revised Target Values Actual Value Achieved at Completion or Target Years Indicator 6 : Agricultural trade data and information base acquired and integrated into NBI-DSS Value (quantitative or Qualitative) Scattered and country-based information Agricultural trade data and information base integrated into NBI-DSS Agricultural trade data and information base integrated into Nile IS/DSS Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 Trade database complete for the 5 corridors studied and the virtual water/water footprint. In final stages Comments of creating meta-data for integrating into Nile (incl. % achievement) IS/DSS. Water footprint already integrated (100%) Indicator 7 : Facilitating policies and investments along selected transboundary agricultural trade corridors indicated Value (quantitative or Qualitative) Scattered information on transboundary trade issues Policy and investment options presented and disseminated Policy and investment options presented and disseminated Date achieved 07/30/ /31/ /31/2012 Policies and potential investments identified, Comments champions for continuing the work also committed to follow-up. Final reports validated and disseminated including (incl. % achievement) extra output on livestock export potential to the Gulf countries (100%) G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs No. Date ISR Actual Disbursements DO IP Archived (USD millions) 1 06/29/2010 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory /14/2011 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory /25/2011 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory /21/2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory /08/2012 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory /02/2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 5.75 H. Restructuring (if any) Not Applicable I. Disbursement Profile v

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11 0.1. Introduction 1. The project evaluated in this Implementation Completion and Results report (ICR) is one of twenty-nine projects funded by the Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF), which are all part of a much larger programmatic approach to support Nile cooperation. Because of the complementary and strategic nature of the projects, it would be incomplete to either evaluate the individual projects in isolation of the overall programmatic framework or fail to look at the role each NBTF project played in building Nile cooperation. This preface provides an overview of the coordinated partner support to the Nile countries through and in coordination with the NBTF, to provide background and context for the individual project ICR that follows. 2. The NBTF was created to support a trend of increasing cooperation in the Nile region. In 1995, the Nile governments established the Nile Council of Ministers of Water Resources (Nile-COM) and designed the Nile River Basin Action Plan, identifying 22 technical assistance projects which aimed to address economic development and equitable use of the Nile waters. In 1999, the Nile-COM adopted a long-term Shared Vision: to achieve sustainable socio-economic development through equitable utilization of and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources. More specifically, Nile Ministers adopted policy guidelines, to develop the water resources of the Nile Basin in a sustainable and equitable way to ensure prosperity, security and peace for all its people; to ensure efficient water management and the optimal use of the resources; to ensure cooperation and joint action between the Nile Basin countries; to target poverty eradication and promote economic integration; and to ensure that the program results in a move from planning to action. Shared Vision Shared Vision Program Subsidiary Action Program Action on the Ground Figure 1. Complementary Design of Early Nile Programs 3. In order to advance these policy guidelines, the Nile-COM endorsed cooperation built around a Strategic Action Program with two complementary concepts: the need to enable a common basis to achieve the Shared Vision for the Nile Basin and the need to advance projects that benefited the people and particularly the poor and disadvantaged in the Nile Basin. As a result, Nile-COM endorsed two programs: the Shared Vision Program (SVP) and the Subsidiary Action Program (see Figure 1). First, the Shared Vision Program was designed to build trust, confidence, and an enabling environment for the sustainable and equitable use of the Nile resources among water professionals and the public. Second, as articulated by Nile- COM, a shared vision can only be legitimized by action on the ground, the Subsidiary Action Program (SAP), one for the Eastern Nile and one for the Equatorial Lakes, which focused on investment projects that addressed agricultural needs, environmental risks, energy, and river management. To implement these programs, the following year the Nile-COM ministers agreed to establish the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) as a transitional institutional arrangement. At establishment, NBI s member states were Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda with Eritrea holding observer status. Membership is now ten countries with South Sudan joining in July

12 4. In 2001, the Nile Basin governments and international development partners convened for the International Consortium for Cooperation on the Nile (ICCON) in Geneva to discuss the Nile Shared Vision and the proposed programs, pledging US$140 million for their implementation. Based on the interest expressed by the Nile-COM and partners at ICCON, a multi-donor funding mechanism, the Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF), was established at the World Bank in 2003 with a consortium of ten international donors 3 to support the countries in their pursuit of the Shared Vision. Several donors also supported the NBI directly in coordination with the NBTF. With this considerable partnership, overall financial support to NBI has far exceeded the ICCON pledges. Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) Addis Ababa Nile Basin Secretariat (Nile-SEC) Entebbe 5. Over the ten years, the NBTF supported twenty-eight completed NBI projects as part of the Shared Vision and Subsidiary Action Programs, and an Institutional Strengthening Project. The last set of projects closed at the end of 2012 (Table 1). To enable full disbursement of NBTF funds in support of NBI, partners to the NBTF agreed a two year extension of the fund until June An additional project, the Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE) Project, was therefore approved in December The NCORE project is co-financed by the new Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) Trust Fund managed by the World Bank NBTF Achievements to Date Nile Equatorial Lakes Coordination Unit (NELSAP-CU) Kigali 6. The NBTF supported the Nile countries to establish the NBI as a transitional institutional mechanism. The NBI is the only regional water Figure 2. NBI Centers organization for all Nile Basin countries, aiming to operate as a catalyst for integrated growth, investment and risk management to achieve the Shared Vision. To carry out the Shared Vision and Subsidiary Action Programs, the three NBI Centers were formed; the NBI Secretariat in Entebbe, Uganda and two Subsidiary Action Program offices, the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit in Kigali, Rwanda (Figure 2). 7. The governance structure is aligned with the basin-wide/sub-basin structure of the Nile Basin Initiative, (Figure 3). A Nile Council of Ministers and a Technical Advisory Committee (Nile-TAC) guides the basin-wide work of the NBI Secretariat (Nile-SEC). At the level of the Eastern Nile sub-basin, an Eastern Nile Council of Ministers (EN-COM) and an Eastern Nile Strategic Action Program Technical 3 Contributors to the NBTF are: Canada, Denmark, European Commission, Finland, France, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom and the World Bank. Partners providing bilateral financing include Germany, Sweden, and the African Development Bank. The United Nations Development Program and the United States are active in the development partnership and support efforts to increase Nile cooperation outside but in coordination with the NBTF partnership. 2

13 Committee (ENSAP) provide governance oversight. In the Nile Equatorial Lakes sub-basin, the Nile Equatorial Lakes Council of Ministers (NEL-COM) and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Technical Advisory Committee (NEL-TAC) provide governance services. 8. Through the ten projects under the Shared Vision Program (SVP), the NBI has improved collaboration within the Basin. The US$87 million Shared Vision Program was designed to build trust, strengthen capacity, and advance the enabling environment for investment in the Nile Basin. The program created networks and partnerships that brought people together across the Basin countries in various water-related sectors. According to a 2008 opinion poll, 4 the program created measurably greater levels of trust among such stakeholder categories as lawyers, media professionals and women leaders. Through work on joint projects on a range of critical issues, the SVP advanced a shared understanding of the need for regional engagement between the countries, including in water resource management, environment, wetlands, and regional power trade. The projects yielded a more organized knowledge base, a Decision Support System (DSS) and other tools to better understand, model and analyze the basin, an inventory of wetlands, plans for watershed management and regional power generation and transmission, studies of agricultural productivity and opportunities for water savings, and trained over 2,000 professionals. Figure 3. NBI Governance Structure 9. The Shared Vision Program provided platforms to bring country officials together at the policy and the technical level. Based on these platforms, technical cooperation was strengthened thereby helping basin-wide processes and practices to be shared and consolidated. By establishing and managing a shared institution, and by collaborating on development projects and risk-management strategies, the Nile Basin countries established common principles, without which long-term cooperation would be difficult. Various project teams are in continuing contact across countries, through other NBI projects, or other initiatives. The NBI is also establishing an integrated policy environment, including a suite of policies called the Nile Basin Sustainability Framework. 4 Opinion Research with Key Stakeholders conducted by the NBI, For more information, see World Bank report number ICR 1493 AFR, Annex 3. 3

14 10. The NBI centers have improved the collation, analysis, and access to information relating to the Nile basin, including a procedures and norms for date and information sharing and exchange. The NBI has helped foster greater exchange not only on the river itself but on energy, agriculture and trade opportunities. NBI is a platform that can be used as a mechanism to notify each other of certain planned development projects using Nile waters. 11. Given its programmatic nature, the Shared Vision Program was reviewed by the World Bank in a Programmatic Implementation Completion and Results Report in June The report reviewed the achievements of the seven thematic projects as well as the umbrella coordination project (Table 1). The Programmatic ICR found that the Outcomes, Bank performance and Grantee Performance were all moderately satisfactory, with the risk to development outcomes being rated as substantial. 12. While the outputs of many of the SVP projects were mainstreamed into other on-going initiatives, two SVP projects implemented second phases; the Regional Power Trade Project which produced a Comprehensive Basin-wide Study of Power Development Options and Trade Opportunities: Proposed Development Options, Strategies and Investment Arrangements; and the Water Resources Planning and Management Project extended the closing date until December 31, 2012 to complete the Nile Basin Decision Support System - this second phase of support has been reviewed in a new ICR The Subsidiary Action Program helped identify and prepare investments of transboundary significance to improve the livelihoods of the basin s neediest populations and promote sustainable growth through improved watershed management, flood preparedness, agricultural improvement, power generation, and transmission. It also helped facilitate agreement among countries to move some investments forward such as the regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project that is expected to make a significant contribution to access to power in Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania. The NBI facilitated US$919 million of investment projects currently under implementation, with a further US$1.584 billion under preparation (Table 2). 14. In addition, Subsidiary Action Program has helped the countries to consolidate their knowledge of the sub-basins and develop new tools and applications to help better identify and plan investments of regional significance. The Eastern Nile Regional Technical Office (ENTRO) and NELSAP-CU have provided studies and analysis to their member governments to improve planning and implementation of regional sustainable development projects. The NBI issues regional flood bulletins with hydrological forecasts for the Eastern Nile to assist national, regional and community authorities in predicting floods. University networks, especially in the Eastern Nile, have been strengthened through collaborative studies, internship programs, and workshops. 15. Implementation Completion and Results reports have been prepared for two Subsidiary Action Program Projects that closed in December, 2012, including the Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project Phase II 7, and the Eastern Nile Planning Model Project 8. The results of these individual projects can be found in the individual ICRs. 5 World Bank report number ICR 1493 AFR. 6 World Bank report number ICR World Bank report number ICR

15 16. The NBI Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP) aimed to support the Nile Basin Initiative to strengthening the foundation for institutional sustainability, to enhance capacity, to harmonize corporate management, as well as to consolidate the gains of the SVP and SAPs. The project started in 2008 and closed in December Through ISP, the NBI clarified its core functions developed a five year Strategic Plan and a Financing Strategy to advance its sustainability. As a result of this work, the Nile Figure 4. NBI Strategic Plan governments committed to incrementally increase their direct financial contributions to the NBI to cover the core costs of the institution by 2017 (FY2018). 17. The NBI has also developed a suite of Strategic Plans for each Center and a consolidated concept note of projects for which was presented to development partners in November The overarching Strategic Plan, (Figure 4) shows how the NBI s current work expands its original programmatic structure including the Shared Vision and Subsidiary Action Programs. 18. As part of implementing the new Strategic Plan and building on other projects, the NBI prepared the Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE) Project. This project is supporting NBI activities in its three core functions of facilitating cooperation, water resource management, and water resource development. 19. The support provided through the ISP enabled results to be achieved across the NBI, including the twenty-one other SVP and SAP projects that were undertaken by the NBI during ISP implementation, as well as the subsequent work that was enabled by the ISP project. While a stand-alone ICR for the ISP project has been produced 9, the breadth of the ISP results can only truly be assessed when looking at the successes and lessons of the other NBI efforts as well Other Programmatic Evaluations 20. Given the historic nature of the approach of the Nile Ministers, as well as the lessons that can be learned for future transboundary efforts, the World Bank and the Development Partners have recently commissioned an Independent Evaluation of the Nile Basin Trust Fund. While the Independent Evaluation is still being finalized, it assessed that the NBTF was a highly appropriate mechanism for funding the NBI s Strategic Action Program, and that the portfolio of projects was relevant to the objectives of the NBI. It also highlighted areas needing further strengthening including sustainability and 8 World Bank report number ICR World Bank report number -- ICR

16 communications. The lessons learned from the Independent Evaluation will provide a valuable complement to the project level findings and lessons of the individual project ICRs Political track of activity 21. In parallel to the technical activities being undertaken through the NBI, and outside the support provided by the Nile Basin Trust Fund, the Nile governments undertook negotiations on the text of a water agreement on the Nile, the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA). This was opened for signature, with six Nile countries signing the agreement, although two opposed certain provisions. One country to date has ratified. Disagreements over the text of the document and process by which the document was opened for signature have affected the work of the NBI, with two countries freezing participation in NBI regional activities pending the clarification of aspects of the disagreement. While the political situation has lessened the impact of some of the technical activities undertaken by the NBI, the NBI has found ways to continue to advance cooperation and to provide technical assistance to continue to assist the Nile countries to assess transboundary issues associated with Nile water management and development Conclusion 22. International experience has demonstrated that building cooperation in large international river basins requires sustained engagement over many decades. For Nile Basin governments, shifting from a national orientation with limited collaboration to a regional approach was, and continues to be, a significant challenge. The Nile Basin countries with NBI support have made strides in sharing information, planning development programs and collaborating on investments. Today, the NBI has strengthened its institutional capacity, partnerships, and regional processes as well as its tools and procedures for cooperative water resources planning, development, and management in the Nile Basin these will further evolve as institutional structures evolve over time. This ICR is an evaluation of one particular project as part of these overall inter-linked efforts to foster Nile cooperation and should be viewed in this context. Table 1 - Nile Basin Trust Fund Project Portfolio Shared Vision Program Project Grant Agreement Signing Date Grant Agreement Closing Date Grant Amount 10 (US$ millions) SVP: Applied Training Project 12-Feb Dec SVP: Confidence Building and Stakeholder Involvement Project 17-Mar Dec SVP: Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Production 16-Mar Jun SVP: Nile Transboundary Environmental Action Project 22-Apr Dec SVP: Regional Power Trade Project 1-Nov Jun SVP: Additional Grant Financing Regional Power Trade Project II 16-Sep Dec SVP: Socioeconomic Development and Benefit Sharing Project 3-Feb Jun SVP: Water Resources Planning and Management Project 15-Oct Apr SVP: Additional Grant Financing Water Res. Planning & Management II 31-Mar Dec SVP: Shared Vision Program Coordination Project 22-Apr Dec Reflects amount granted to NBI for project purposes from NBTF. Actual amount disbursed by project is lower, in some cases. 6

17 Project Grant Agreement Signing Date Grant Agreement Closing Date Grant Amount 10 (US$ Shared Vision Program (subtotal) millions) Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) NBTF - ENSAP: Eastern Nile Watershed Management Project 8-Nov Jun ENTRO Grant for launching the Joint Multipurpose Program 28-Sep May NBTF Grant for Institutional Strengthening of the Eastern Nile Regional Technical Office (ENTRO) 12-Oct Dec EN Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1 19-Jun Dec EN Planning Model 9-Sep Dec EN Joint Multipurpose Program Identification Phase (JMP1) 9-Sep Dec Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) (sub-total) Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) NELSAP: Coordination Unit Project 22-Apr Jun NELSAP: NELSAP CU Institutional Strengthening and Scaling Up 30-Jun Dec NELSAP: Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric and Multipurpose Project Preparation Grant 24-Oct Oct NELSAP: Agriculture and Trade 29-Apr Sep NELSAP: Additional Grant Financing Agriculture & Trade-II 30-Nov Dec NELSAP: Sio-Malaba-Malakasi RBM 24-Sep Dec NELSAP: Mara RBM 24-Sep Dec NELSAP: Kagera RBM 17-Sep Dec NELSAP: Power Program 24-Apr Dec NELSAP: Coordinated Water Resources Development Program 4-Feb Dec Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) (sub-total) Cross-Cutting NBI Institutional Strengthening Project 21-Oct Dec NBI: Nile Basin Secretariat Support 25-Jan Jun NCORE: Nile Cooperation for Results 26-Dec Dec Cross-cutting (subtotal) Total - NBTF Grants Table 2 - Investments resulting from NBI projects that are currently (I) Under Implementation, (II) Under Preparation or (III) Pre-Investment/Identification A. NBI Project Portfolio Project Title I. INVESTMENT PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION 7 Total Cost (Million US$) (est.) Secured Financing Source(s) of Secured Financing Target Start of Implementation (Calendar Year) NEL Regional Transmission Interconnection Projects AfDB, JICA, KFW, (agreed regionally, prepared regionally and nationally, implemented nationally) Netherlands 2013 Watershed management Projects GEF, Finland, Egypt, (Reg., Egypt, Sudan; excluding US$40 million Ethiopia - Tana Beles) (agreed and Sudan prepared regionally, implemented nationally) 2009 Lakes Edward and Albert Fisheries Project (Uganda-DRC) AfDB 2011 Ethiopia Tana-Beles Integrated Water Resources Development (implemented IDA, Finland, Ethiopia, nationally, with some preparation by ENTRO) Communities 2008 Ethiopia Irrigation & Drainage (agreed regionally, prepared and implemented nationally) IDA, Ethiopia 2007 Ethiopia-Sudan Interconnection IDA (for Ethiopia), (agreed regionally, prepared and implemented nationally with technical assistance from Sudan, Ethiopia NBI) 2008 EN Flood Preparedness and Early Warning-Phase 1 (agreed and prepared regionally, implemented regionally and nationally) 4 4 NBTF, EN countries 2007 TOTAL - NBI Prepared or Regionally agreed

18 B. Selected NBI assisted projects Project Title I. INVESTMENT PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION Total Cost (Million US$) (est.) Secured Financing Source(s) of Secured Financing Target Start of Implementation (Calendar Year) Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project - Phase 2 for Rwanda and Burundi (prepared by NELSAP) IDA, GEF, Sweden 2011 TOTAL - NBI assisted projects GRAND TOTAL- NBI prepared & assisted Project Title II. INVESTMENT PROJECTS UNDER PREPARATION Total Cost Secured (Million Financing US$) (est.) Possible Source(s) of Financing Target Start of Implementation (Calendar Year) A. NBI Project Portfolio Bugesera Integrated Water and Irrigation Project (Rwanda-Burundi) 50 0 AfDB African Water Facility 2013 EN Flood Preparedness and Early Warning - Phase IDA, AfDB, Regional Rusumo Falls Hydro-electric and Multipurpose Project (Tanzania, Netherlands Rwanda, Burundi) (Pledged ) 2014 Kagera Sub-Basin Small Multipurpose storage reservoirs and watershed management - (Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda) Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Sub-Basin Small Multipurpose storage reservoirs and water shed management (includes Maira and Bulusambu Dam Projects) (Kenya, Uganda) Mara Sub-Basin Small Multipurpose storage reservoirs and water shed management (Tanzania, Kenya) Small Scale Irrigation Investments in Tanzania (Prepared to pre-feasibility level through NEL Water Project) Power interconnection. Iringa-Mbaya Transmission Line Power interconnection. Kenya-Tanzania Transmission Line (US$13 million under consideration from CIWA) 62 IDA (under consideration -Maira Dam project) See note for Kagera above Government of TZ is looking to secure financing internally IDA, JICA and AfDB Under discussion with several financiers Power Interconnection. Uganda (Nkenda) Democratic Republic of Congo (Beni Butembo Bunia) Power Transmission Line Study Project (ongoing) B. Selected NBI Facilitated Projects Egypt Irrigation & Drainage: (West Delta) (agreed regionally through NBI, prepared and implemented nationally) Egypt Grand Total NBI Projects Under Preparation 1,584 0 III. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE AND PRE-INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES TO IDENTIFY PROJECTS FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE PREPARATION AND FINANCING Advancing the NEL Water Resources Development Project (TA) Identification and preparation of pre-investment projects for water resources development and management with regional significance. Over US$200 million of investments under identification. Includes: -Lake Kyoga Development Strategy and Investment Plan (US$170 million); Yala River Basin Development Strategy & Investment Plan (US$639 million); Gucha-Migori Basin Development Strategy & Investment Plan (US$857 million); Aswa Basin Development Strategy & Investment Plan (US$728 million); and Lake Victoria basin in Tanzania (US$359 million). Baro-Akobo Multipurpose Project (Ethiopia, Sudan) US$ 3.5 million from AWF and NEPAD Future investments which may emerge from the EN Planning Model US$ 6.5 million from NBTF; and Cooperative Regional Assessments in watershed management, irrigation and drainage, and power trade. NEL Climate Adaptation Mainstreaming Project (TA) 400,000 from KfW Regional Agriculture trade and Productivity Project US$ 7.7 million from NBTF. Irrigation sites under identification. Pre-feasibility Studies to be funded under NCORE. Sudan Irrigation and Drainage (Upper Atbara, Sudan) Future investments may also emerge from the multisectoral investment opportunities analysis in the Eastern Nile, being undertaken through the NCORE project

19 1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design 1.1 Context at Appraisal 23. Regional and Sector Context: The second phase of the Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project (RATP II) was prepared in 2009 under the Nile Basin Initiative s (NBI) 11 Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP). The project was conceived at a time when the NBI was expanding several programs and activities to achieve its shared vision to achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of and benefit from the common Nile Basin water resources. 24. Several interconnected issues in the Nile Basin confronted by NBI member countries led to the conceptualization, design and implementation of the project: A number of Nile Basin countries were characterized by extreme poverty and consequently, food insecurity in the Basin continued to remain a widespread and pervasive issue; In the Nile Bain, agriculture was (and continues to be) a major production sector with enormous potential for growth that remains a primary source of income for a majority of the poor - as a result, the Basin countries anticipated the launching of major investments aimed at irrigation and agricultural development as a means to ensure food security; Given that agriculture is a major water user, the Basin countries had correctly realized that the efficient use and management of agricultural water would greatly influence their long term success in food and water security at both the national and Basin levels; The NBI and its member countries were aware and concerned about possible serious water resources challenges in the future as a result of rising populations, improving standards of living, and potential negative effects of climate change; The demand for water was gradually increasing due to interventions that included: (i) ambitious national agriculture investment plans called for under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP); (ii) concurrent and increasing investments by the World Bank in irrigation development in the Basin countries ongoing in Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya, and planned in Uganda and Burundi; and (iii) several other initiatives being undertaken by the Regional Economic Communities (REC) and Regional Community Groups (RCG) 12 to expand commercially oriented crops and livestock products in the Basin; and The integration of agricultural water demand and use into overall integrated water resources planning and management at the Basin level was an emerging need. 11 The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a transitional inter-governmental organization dedicated to equitable and sustainable management and development of the shared water resources of the Nile Basin. NBI Member States include Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Eritrea participates as an observer. 12 The Regional Economic Communities (RECs) are East African Community (EAC), Common Market for East and South Africa (COMESA), African Union - Inter-African Bureau of Animal Resources (AU-IBAR) and the RCGs are East African Grain Council (EAGC), and Horticultural Council of Africa (HCA). 9

20 25. At the operational level, these issues highlighted the need for the NBI to develop capacity in information and knowledge systems on rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and decision support analytical tools (called Decision Support Systems DSS) to guide decisions on basin water resources use and management. A DSS is a customized computer model that is designed with the ability to analyze data and present the outcomes of the analysis both in qualitative and quantitative forms. DSS outputs provide user friendly layouts to guide and support policy and operational decisions around competing water uses and priorities in a particular basin or sub-basin. A DSS can provide valuable input for both long-term multi-sectoral planning and immediate development of specific infrastructure (i.e. irrigation, hydropower, water supply and sanitation). 26. Building an irrigation and agricultural trade knowledge base and developing a DSS that incorporates agriculture water were necessary to be able to: a. Anticipate and weigh the emerging water demand and use for different subsectors in the basin; b. Understand strategic and technical options for promoting more efficient and sustainable use of water resources and economically viable investments in agriculture; c. Analyze and understand issues of resources and economic trade-offs between different uses of water (e.g. hydropower and irrigation); d. Guide the Basin countries in their investment decisions by taking into account early the increasing opportunity cost of basin water as early as possible at appraisal stages of agriculture investment projects that would demand increasing use of the basin water resources; e. Minimize the risk of economic benefits forgone and maximize shared benefits at basin level relative to possible expansion of irrigated agriculture and agriculture trade; and f. Promote and ensure efficient water management practices and monitor the water use. 27. Additionally, NBI was keen to explore the potential role of agriculture trade as a trigger to enhance agriculture production and agricultural productivity while ensuring efficient use of the basin s water resources. As agricultural trade expands in the Nile Basin, there is a need to identify issues and constraints related to it, understand different agricultural commodities and their trade potential (including high value crops grown under irrigated conditions), and explore opportunities and options for promotion and investment. Addressing these strategic concerns leads to the continuing need for adequate data, establishing a solid knowledge base on agriculture trade, and decision support tools to assist in the analysis of both water resources management and economic implications of trade in the basin. 28. At the time of project design and appraisal, a draft Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) 13 for the Nile Basin envisioned the establishment of a permanent basin institution to succeed the NBI. 13 The CFA was in draft form at project appraisal. It was signed in 2010 by six countries Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. To date, it has only been ratified by Ethiopia. 10

21 While the mandate of the NBI in basin water resources management was clear, there was a growing call to clarify and define the role of the NBI or its successor institution on agriculture development and trade. 29. The approach taken by RATP II included a certain amount of risk for the NBI as agriculture was arguably not the highest priority at the time for an emerging regional organization. In developing and seeking finance for the project, the NBI countries demonstrated a foresighted approach to providing regional technical assistance in emerging areas with significant growth potential. 30. Rationale for Bank Involvement: It was in this context that the Basin countries, through the NBI, requested the World Bank in 2007 to help integrate irrigated agriculture production and agricultural trade into the basin water management agenda. It was agreed that the NELSAP would prepare a Technical Assistance (TA) Project to be financed with Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) Resources RATP II. The Bank s rationale for engagement in this project was strong and justifiable: the Bank had pioneered cooperation and integrated water resources planning and management in several international river basins; since 1999, it had been actively engaged in the facilitation of regional cooperation in the management of water resources of the Nile; as trustee to the NBTF 14, the Bank was one of the NBI s largest development partners and had been financing both technical assistance and investment preparation as well as supporting the Nile Basin institutions through advocacy, supervision and technical assistance; the Bank has an active lending and AAA program in related sectors in most NBI countries; and the Bank was also well-positioned technically to support water resources management and agricultural development in the riparian countries with its long experience in dealing with agriculture, water resources and trade. 31. The project was a result of the long standing strategic dialogue between the Bank, the NBTF Development Partners, and the NBI in order to promote regional cooperation in water resources management. The Bank s dialogue and technical inputs facilitated and shaped the thinking of the NBI to design and implement the project in order to address the strategic and operational issues. 32. RATP Phase I (RATP I) was implemented over a one year period from April 2008 to April 2009 to carry out background analysis, identify the scope of the larger project, carry out stakeholder consultations, and design the project. RATP II, which is the focus of this ICR, was implemented over three years from November 2009 to December The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), on behalf of the NBTF Development Partners, took on the role of lead partner for project preparation and implementation. CIDA also provided a consultant who participated in preparation and supervision missions with the World Bank Task Team. 1.2 Original Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators 33. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to increase knowledge of Basin agriculture in Nile Basin institutions, to promote more efficient and sustainable use of water resources and economically viable investment in agriculture. 14 Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF), was established in 2003 at the request of the Nile Basin Council of Ministers of Water Resources (NILE- COM). The NBTF is a funding mechanism that helps administer and harmonize donor partner support pledged to the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). Donors that contribute through the NBTF include: Canada, Denmark, European Commission, Finland, France, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom and the World Bank. 11

22 34. The Project Outcome Indicators are: Options for NBI agricultural agenda presented to the NBI governing bodies; Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to increase water use productivity in Basin agriculture; and Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to promote agricultural trade in the Nile Basin. 35. The linkage of the project outcome indicators with the project components and their intermediate outcomes and indicators are shown in section 3.2 and in Annex Key Indicators and reasons/justifications 36. The PDO remained unchanged throughout project implementation. 37. Three intermediate outcome indicators related to Component 2 of the project were modified at the Mid-Term Review (MTR), which was carried out in July 2011, as detailed in Table 3, below. In addition Direct Project Beneficiaries as a World Bank core sector indicator was added as a PDO results indicator. However, no formal restructuring was done to modify the indicators and the Implementation Status Report (ISR) following the MTR reflected these changes. Table 3 MTR Revision of RATP II Indicators Original Project Development Objective Indicator Revised Project Development Objective Direct Project Beneficiaries (regional project staff, PSC and other key officials in NBI countries). Reasons for the Revision The original PDO indicator did not include any Bank s Core results indicator. Original Intermediate Output Indicator Revised Intermediate Output Indicator Reasons for the Revision Component 2 Model that includes supply and demand blocks for Nile basin agriculture developed and integrated into the Nile Basin DSS model. Model that includes supply and demand blocks for Nile Basin agriculture developed and a plan developed for integrating it into the Nile DSS model. Due to delays in launching the agriculture model contract and limited time left for its full integration into DSS before project completion. Agricultural database for major crops in ten countries and one information retrieval system established, integrated into DSS, and functioning. One report on water resources for irrigation produced for each of the six specified countries and disseminated through at least one workshop per country. Agricultural data base for major crops in ten countries and one information retrieval system established and a plan developed for integrating it into the DSS. One report on water resources for irrigation produced for each of the seven specified countries and disseminated through at least two regional validation workshops one after each phase. The original target of integration of the Agriculture Data Base into DSS was reduced to the development of a plan for integration of the Agriculture Data Base into DSS due to delays in launching agriculture model contract and limited time left for its full integration into DSS before project completion. The number of countries was increased from nine to ten following the independence and subsequent inclusion of South Sudan. South Sudan was added to the irrigation potential study in response to a recommendation of the Regional Project Steering Committee. 12

23 1.4 Main beneficiaries 38. The Project Appraisal Document did not explicitly identify the beneficiaries of the project, but it was implied in the PDO statement that the main targeted beneficiary would be the NBI, its future successor institution, and the Nile Basin countries. In retrospect, however, it is clear that the outcomes and the knowledge products generated would benefit stakeholders directly and indirectly at four different levels: a. At the international level: other River Basin Organizations (RBOs) and development partners would benefit from the planned dissemination of selected knowledge products - these products would provide different options on the role of RBOs in basin-wide agricultural development, agriculture trade, and integrated water resources planning and management; b. At the regional level: all the Nile Basin Institutions (including a future RBO) as well as other institutions in the Great Lakes region, would benefit from a DSS model enriched with comprehensive data and information on irrigation and agriculture, different options for engagement in the agricultural and irrigation sectors; along with various analytical tools such as the virtual water/water footprint and commodity corridor studies; c. At the national level: concerned sector ministries of all the Basin countries would benefit from knowledge on the country s irrigation potential, agriculture sector, and options for regional agriculture trade; and d. At the local level: communities, farmers cooperatives and water users associations, and development partners, including nongovernmental agencies (NGO), would benefit from the knowledge of best practices on efficient water management through water harvesting and irrigation. 39. The final ISR reported 350 direct project beneficiaries that included regional project staff, Project Steering Committee, and other key officials and stakeholders in the NBI Countries. It is difficult to quantify the number of actual and potential indirect beneficiaries. These include the World Bank and other international financial institutions engaged the development of national and regional investments in irrigation and agricultural trade; regional bodies like the East African Community, NBI, and Lake Victoria Basin Commission; national ministries such as planning, water, irrigation, and trade; local farming, water user, and trade associations; academic institutions; and the private sector. 1.5 Original Components 40. The project included four components. a. Component 1: Defining NBI s core agricultural functions (total appraisal budget US$0.64 million actual expenditures US$0.28 million): This component aimed to: (a) define agriculture-related core functions for NBI based on a regional public goods framework, critical assessment of agricultural functions in other RBOs of interest, and lessons and recommendations from first generation NBI projects; (b) consult with national and regional stakeholders in order to inform them on the main findings and 13

24 conclusions, to tailor future institutional design to the current institutional settings in NBI countries; (c) develop a consensus on study recommendations; and (d) prepare and disseminate information materials on NBI functions and related services and opportunities. b. Component 2: Supporting productive water use in Basin agriculture (total appraisal budget US$2.17 million actual expenditures US$2.50 million): This Component aimed to: (a) integrate Basin agriculture into Basin strategic water resource planning and management; (b) generate utilizable knowledge on irrigation potential in Nile Equatorial Lakes Basin; and (c) generate and dissemination of knowledge of best practices on water harvesting. c. Component 3: Incorporating agricultural trade into Basin water resources management (total appraisal budget US$1.48 million actual expenditures US$1.56 million): This Component aimed to: (a) establish and integrate agricultural trade data and information in the Basin strategic water resources planning and management; (b) facilitate policy and investments indicated along selected transboundary agricultural trade corridors; and (c) introduce the concept of virtual water trade as a tool for water resource decision making. d. Component 4: Project management and Monitoring and Evaluation (total appraisal budget US$2.44 million actual expenditures US$2.32 million): This component aimed to support project management, coordination, monitoring and evaluation, and dissemination of outputs. 41. The Intermediate Outcomes and Intermediate Outcome Indicators for the Components are presented in Section 3.2 and Annex Revised Components 42. None of the project components were restructured during implementation. 1.7 Other significant changes 43. At the request of the NBI, the Grant closing date was extended by two months from October 30, 2012 to December 31, 2012 to allow sufficient time to complete and disseminate the studies that were well advanced. 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes 2.1 Project Preparation, Design and Quality at Entry Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 44. Soundness of Background Analysis: As mentioned earlier, the NBI and the Bank decided to have two phases, one for the preparation and design (Phase I) and the other for the implementation of the project (Phase II). Phase I began in April 2008 as Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project 14

25 (RATP I) through a Grant funding (Grant No. TF for US$1 million approved on April 29, 2008 and implemented from April 2008 to September 2009). 45. It was a sensible decision by the NBI, the NBTF governing committee, and the Bank to have two distinct phases for the project as opposed to the conventional approach of having a single phased project. As a result, the RATP II was prepared and designed with extensive pre-project background analysis and stakeholder consultations and validations. Project formulation was conducted in a participatory manner engaging NELSAP-CU staff, high level policy and operational staff from the ministries and departments of water resources and irrigation, agriculture, and trade and commerce of the NBI member, and several non-governmental entities (RECs and RCGs) who would later be involved in the project implementation on agricultural trade related aspects. The background studies conducted were: (a) a literature review of Needs and Opportunities for Agricultural Trade and Productivity in the Nile Basin Region ; (b) a scoping study on Agriculture Cross Border Trade Corridors in the Nile Basin ; (c) a literature review on Defining NBI Core Agricultural Agenda for the Future Nile Basin Organization ; and (d) scoping study on Needs and Opportunity Assessment on the National and Regional Commodity Groups. These preproject background studies combined with extensive stakeholder consultations formed the basis and direction for scoping and defining the objectives, components, project development outcomes and outputs in the final project design. 46. The preparatory phase was highly beneficial strategically, institutionally and technically for both the quality at entry and the implementation of the project. At the time, many Basin countries were anticipating large investments in irrigation and agriculture development in their individual countries. 47. Phase I provided resources and time to the NBI and NELSAP-CU to manage the expectations of the Basin countries and convince and build consensus among the country stakeholders that sound preparatory and analytical work would be necessary before the NBI and the countries could properly embark upon the preparation of such large investment operations. Phase I also provided space and resources to: (a) carry out basin wide consultations and create awareness on the sector and basin wide issues among the riparian countries as well with the stakeholders such as RECs; (b) identify the scope of and build ownership and commitment for the RATP II; (c) design RATP II based on background analytical work and consultations; and (d) set up organizational and institutional structures for its oversight, coordination, and implementation. 48. Strategic Relevance: The project s strategic relevance to the major sector issues identified at appraisal was appropriate as outlined in Section 1.1. The PAD articulated these sector issues clearly thus providing a firm foundation for the design of the project s scope and its desired outcomes. Additionally, RATP II was designed as an instrument to fill the knowledge gaps by building, complementing and supplementing knowledge that had already been generated by past projects or knowledge or that would be generated by other NBI projects that were being implemented at the time of appraisal. Those projects included: (i) Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP); (ii) Water Resources Planning and Management Project (WRPMP); (iii) Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Production Project (EWUAP); (iv) The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Nile Project; and (v) Socio-economic Development and Benefits Sharing Project (SDBS). Strategic and technical linkages of RATP II s design with other completed and ongoing projects are detailed in Annex 3. 15

26 49. Overall Project Design: Although the project appeared to be a small TA study of US$7 million, it was a complex operation that involved decision makers and other stakeholders at policy making and operational levels as well as a large number of organizations and institutions including multi-sectoral ministries of the ten NBI member countries, the NBI Secretariat, NELSAP-CU, Nile Equatorial Lakes Technical Advisory Committee (NELTAC), the Regional Project Steering Committee (RPSC), and private sector agriculture trade organizations to produce a number of knowledge products in a participatory, consultative and consensus building manner. Therefore, while the design of the project and its implementation arrangements were demanding and complex, they were also reasonable and appropriate. However, implementation of RATP II was limited to three years because all NBTF financed activities were required to close by December 2012 due to the original NBTF closure date of June Therefore the project was designed to produce selected knowledge products and tools but not to make changes in the existing policies, institutions and decision making processes in the water resources management in the basin using that knowledge and tools. The knowledge products planned under the project components (See Annexes 6, 7, and 8) were well aligned to address the sectoral issues highlighted in the PAD as outlined above. The inputs and outputs of the four project components appropriately supported the overall development outcomes of the project. 50. Project Implementation Arrangements Design: The project implementation structure included the division of implementation, coordination and oversight responsibilities among a large number of entities: (i) the Project Management Unit (PMU) at Bujumbura, Burundi was in-charge of day-to-day management of the project; (ii) NELSAP-CU at Kigali, Rwanda was responsible for facilitation and supervision of the project implementation, quality control of the studies, ensuring compliance with NBI operational rules and procedures, and facilitation of linkages with NBI governing bodies, and other ongoing and planned projects and programs in the Nile Basin countries; (iii) National Liaison Officers (NLOs), who were technical experts appointed by each basin country from the ministries of agriculture or irrigation and water resources management, were responsible for facilitation of data collection, consultation and dissemination of study findings and results in the countries; (iv) RPSC, consisting of two representatives from the ministries of irrigation and water resources, and agriculture and trade, was responsible for overall strategic and technical guidance to the PMU; and (v) NELTAC, consisting of designated senior officials of the Ministries of Irrigation and/or agriculture of each basin country, was responsible for project oversight and technical guidance to the project and advise NEL Council of Ministers (NELCOM) on project implementation. Additionally, three RECs namely Eastern Africa Grain Council (EAGC), Horticultural Council of Africa (HCA), and The African Union-Inter-Africa Bureau of Animal Resources (AU-IBAR) participated in the implementation of Component This project was a multi-sectoral, multi-country and multi-partner TA operation aimed to generate several crucial knowledge products. The knowledge base was to be developed with inputs from expert international consultants and from agencies such as RECs and RCGs. It was then to be validated through consultation among ministries of irrigation/water resources, agriculture, trade and finance and planning from NBI countries. It should be noted that at the time of design and appraisal, Ethiopia was fully included in the project, though they had not yet joined NELSAP. While the design of organizational 15 In 2011, the Bank and the NBTF Donor Partners extended the NBTF through June 2015; however, at the time of the extension, the Partners stipulated that all on-going NBTF Projects would be closed, as planned, by December 31, After that date, only one NBTF financed project, the new Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE), which became effective in February 2013, would be under implementation. 16

27 structure and arrangement for the project implementation, coordination and oversight appears complex at a glance, given the unique nature of the project and its implementation challenges, the design was appropriate. In retrospect, the design worked effectively and proved complementary for the satisfactory implementation and delivery of its planned outputs. This fact confirms that, by and large, the design of the project content, the planned deliverables, and the implementation arrangement and mechanism is compatible with the capacity of the project implementation entities. 52. While the PMU of Phase 1 was located in Kigali, Rwanda, one of the important project design considerations was the choice of location for the PMU of the RATP II between Nairobi, Kenya; Kigali Rwanda; and Bujumbura, Burundi. Because the location of the PMU was considered important for efficient project implementation, the NBI conducted an independent study to decide the best location for the PMU. The study weighed several important strategic, operational and cost factors which were critical for RATP s successful implementation and achievement of the development objectives. Bujumbura was chosen because the study indicated that it was the least cost location and the Government of Burundi made a strong request to host, as Burundi had yet to host a regional NBI activity 16. The NBI adhered to the recommendation to locate the PMU at Bujumbura despite concerns of the Bank that the Nairobi location would be more favorable in terms of better facilities, regular air flights, speedy air and internet connectivity, and the presence of the headquarters of some implementing partners. The Government of Burundi remained strongly committed for and engaged in the project activities throughout its implementation. At completion there is a general consensus among the implementing partners that the Nairobi location would not have made a significant difference in the quality and timeliness of the outputs, operational costs, and visibility of the project. The decision to locate the PMU at Bujumbura was in the right direction as it provided a sense of recognition and inclusiveness of Burundi as an important member of the NBI. 53. Incorporation of Lessons Learned in the Design: The project design and preparation also benefitted from an assessment of lessons learned from other regional NBI projects. The lessons incorporated included the need to: (i) produce guidance for NBI s future institutional direction; (ii) understand the African agriculture development potentials and trends in the context of regional and basin water use and management; (iii) contribute to NBI-wide policies, procedures and information; (iv) continue to generate and disseminate information, technologies and best practices building on the initiatives of Shared Vision Program (SVP) projects already closed; (v) foster strong collaboration with and support from other regional institutions of the Nile basin; and (vi) integrate stakeholder engagement and communication throughout implementation. 54. Implementation Readiness: Several key critical implementation arrangements were established under the Phase I and were ready before the commencement of the project: the PMU had been established with a full time Project Manager but it still required full staffing and facilities; awareness creation activities among potential stakeholders were ongoing; collaborating institutions were identified; the RPSC was established and functional; a detailed project implementation manual was prepared; and a comprehensive financial management capacity assessment was completed. Therefore, the Phase II started as a natural continuation of Phase At this point, all NBI member countries except Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo had hosted either an SVP Project and/or one of the SAPs. 17

28 55. Shortcomings of the Project design: There were several shortcomings of the project design, which contributed to the implementation delays in the first year, particularly in the period immediately following effectiveness: a. The original results framework did not include indicators to measure the number of project beneficiaries and the level of building capacity and/or level of uptake of the knowledge generated by the project. b. The scope of the largest study of the project (the basin wide agriculture model under Component 2) was not fully clear and consequently the PMU had to carry out an additional Gap Analysis Study before it could finalize the terms of reference (TOR) for that study. c. The proposed scope for establishing the agriculture data base was found to be too ambitious and had to be significantly scaled down during the implementation. d. There was lack of clarity on the roles and responsibilities of some project implementation partners (See section 2.2) which resulted in initial implementation delays. e. Assessment of the core technical staffing requirements was deficient. f. The Bank s team did not carry out a project specific procurement assessment of the PMU because the Bank was engaged with multiple on-going projects with NELSAP-CU. Procurement administration was delayed in the first 9-10 months of implementation primarily due to poor supervision on the part of the Bank and the technical capacity of the PMU. Consequently, the Bank carried out a project-specific procurement capacity and procurement training needs assessment in June 2010, resulting in training for the PMU that proved helpful in improving the capacity issues and accelerating the procurement processing thereafter. g. The project budget was dictated by the NBTF funds available rather than by an actual costing of the demand. 56. A new Task Team Leader (TTL) was assigned for the project immediately after approval. This change coincided with the timing of the project s transition from the preparation phase to the implementation phase and resulted in a breakdown of institutional memory, working relationships and networks built and established by the outgoing TTL between the Bank and the Client during the preparatory phase. This change affected the Client s readiness for project implementation 57. Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures: Annex 5 provides a reassessment of the project s risks at completion. The overall project risk was rated as Low and in retrospect, the rating was realistic. Most of the risks identified at appraisal carried Low risk ratings provided the proposed risk mitigation measures were applied. The proposed risk mitigation measures were adopted and were effective in maintaining a Low risk rating throughout its implementation until the project closure. The procurement capacity was rated High at appraisal and unfortunately a project specific procurement assessment was not conducted at that time (see paragraph 31.f, above). But the Bank s team recommended and then provided intensive procurement training to project staff and that intervention was helpful to overcome 18

29 capacity issues and speed up the procurement administration and deliver the contracts later. As a result, the procurement risk rating remained Moderate during the implementation. 58. Project Duration and Exit Strategy: Most of the project outputs were delivered around the time the project was scheduled to close, leaving insufficient time to consolidate and further refine the quality of the outputs. It would have been beneficial if the project had had at least another 6 months available to refine and consolidate the outputs, and initiate post completion action to provide hands on training to the staff on the application of the analytical models and ensure uptake and sustainable use of the project outputs. However, the decision to limit the project life to three years was understandable at the design stage, because of the scheduled closing of the NBTF. Also, it would have been beneficial if the project design had included an exit strategy to ensure sustainable use of the project outcomes, provide further dissemination and hands on training on the tools, and integrate the knowledge and the recommendations systematically into concurrent and upcoming programs and projects. Lack of an exit strategy is a one major shortcoming that makes the quality of project design moderately satisfactory. 2.2 Implementation Rating: Satisfactory 59. Project Start up: The project had a slow start up and the implementation progress was poor in the first year for several reasons, some of these issues affected the implementation in the second year as well, but the project implementation picked up at the end of the first year and maintained at satisfactory levels thereafter until closure. 60. Implementation Delays in the First Year: The project faced significant implementation delays in the first year due to a number of reasons. The Bank s TTL who was actively engaged and responsible for the preparation of Phase II was changed immediately after the Approval in October The quality of project supervision by the second TTL was unsatisfactory. Consequently, the quality and timeliness of the project implementation supervision in the first year of its implementation was deficient and this status has been recorded in the Aide-memoire of the first implementation supervision mission. The loss of the institutional memory and the working relationship established during preparation resulted in weakened communication between the Bank and the project team during the first year. Also, the new TTL and project team failed to recognize the implementation issues in a timely manner or take adequate measures to overcome those issues. The Bank s guidance and inputs to the PMU for the finalization of the TORs, review inputs and no objection clearances for procurements were inadequate and significantly delayed. 61. Once Bank management became aware of the delays and poor performance, a new TTL was appointed. Unfortunately, it took almost one year for this to happen and by then one third of the implementation period had elapsed. The quality and timeliness of the project implementation supervision improved significantly in the second and third year under the third TTL. Additionally, the full establishment of the PMU at Bujumbura took a few months after approval in October 2009 and the key PMU staff was not on board until March Weak communication links between the Bujumburabased PMU, the Kigali-based NELSAP-CU and Bank/NBI procurement staff based in Kampala also affected early project implementation. 62. Implementation Issues in the Last two Years: Several other factors affected implementation in the last two years too, but the Bank s Task team and the project implementing partners (NELSAP-CU and 19

30 the PMU) were able to overcome most of those issues successfully. Those include: (a) weak technical linkages between the project and the Institutional Design Study (IDS), that was being prepared by the NBI under the Nile Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP); (b) lack of clarity and understanding among the NBI institutions on the agricultural role of the NBI made it initially difficult to engage, or keep informed, all the Nile countries in the project activities; (c) poor coordination between the NBI Secretariat and NELSAP-CU weakened the efforts to ensure stronger linkages between the project s work on the NBI s core agriculture functions and role and the ISP; (d) responsibilities of the RCGs and the definition of their role with respect to the consultancy for the Cross Border Trade Study were not fully clear; (e) the procurement for the largest study under the grant, the basin-wide agricultural model (Component 2), was put on hold pending a Gap Analysis study that would lay the groundwork for the model, because the need for additional gap analysis was not identified during the preparation; and (f) several additional individual technical consultants were needed by the PMU to guide and oversee the consultancies, and these staffing requirements were identified only half way through the implementation, resulting in their delayed recruitment. 63. Factors Contributed to Satisfactory and Timely Completion of the Project: Several factors contributed to the satisfactory overall implementation of the project: (i) most of the project oversight and coordination bodies such as RPSC and NELSAP-CU were in place and functional at the inception of the project; (ii) starting from the end of the first year, the Bank s inputs were intensified and maintained at satisfactory level; (iii) the Bank conducted implementation support and review missions regularly (six altogether including the MTR); (iv) the last four Bank implementation review missions and their recommendations focused explicitly on results and outputs and on resolving major implementation issues; (v) the Bank s team and the PMU reviewed and adjusted project budgets among the components periodically during the last four missions as the project commitments and budget requirements became clearer with the awarding of the major contracts; (vi) NELSAP-CU and RPSC were actively engaged in project oversight and quality assurance of the TORs and interim reports at every stage of consultancy studies; (vii) the PMU closely attended to the actions recommended by the Bank s implementation review missions to overcome implementation bottlenecks; (viii) the Bank s team and NELSAP-CU closely monitored the timely compliance of the recommended agreed actions; (ix) the PMU conducted national consultations (covering Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Tanzania) to improve the output of the major consultancy studies timely; (x) The Bank s team provided timely review comments and no objection clearances on the TORs, miscellaneous procurement administration matters, and interim reports at various stages of the consultancies; and (xi) the NELSAP-CU coordinated the project activities effectively with the partnering countries that helped the facilitation of data collection and consultations for and dissemination of the knowledge products. 2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E), Design, Implementation and Utilization Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 64. M&E Design and Implementation: M&E design and implementation was moderately satisfactory. The technical assistance nature of the project did not demand an intensive M&E design, instead a simple and straightforward results monitoring framework was developed. While the PDO was straightforward, the results indicators were phrased as output indicators since, as a TA project, RATP II was targeted to produce well defined and stand-alone knowledge products. In hindsight, there were several major shortcoming in the M&E design including: (a) the original results framework did not 20

31 include additional indicators to measure the number of beneficiaries; (b) there was not at least one proxy indicator to gauge the level of capacity building and/or level of utilization of the knowledge to be generated by this project; and (c) the PAD did not include specific indicators for Component 4 (Project Management) given the estimated cost of this Component was US$2.44 million (36 percent of total cost). 65. The intermediate outcomes and indicators of the three components were articulated reasonably well. Those intermediate outcomes and outputs were closely linked to the knowledge products that were produced by the project through a series of consultancy studies. 66. Based on the results framework of the PAD, the PMU developed a performance management framework showing how RATP II outcomes are linked to and contribute to the achievement of the NELSAP and NBI vision, and it provided the basis for NELSAP-CU to keep track of the project results in the overall context of that vision. 67. M&E Utilization: M&E utilization was satisfactory. M&E was carried out using the results framework and by the project technical staff as well as M&E specialist attached to the NELSAP-CU. The project also included two specialists to oversee and assure the quality of the project activities related to agricultural trade and modeling/data collection. The regular M&E reports prepared by the PMU were reviewed by the NELSAP-CU before they were disseminated to the Bank. 68. During the MTR, a core PDO indicator was added (Direct Project Beneficiaries) and several intermediate results were revised taking in to account the implementation delays and what could be accomplished by the closing of the project (Section 1.7). The Bank s supervision missions as well as the ISRs after the first year monitored and recorded both the progress in sufficient coverage and details and the results and intermediate outcomes in line with the results framework. 69. The PMU monitored the progress of the major contracts and their deliverables closely and submitted project progress reports and annual work plans periodically and on time to the Bank. The monitoring of financial management aspects was also satisfactory. 2.4 Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance Rating: Satisfactory 70. Social and Environmental Safeguard compliance: The project did not trigger any safeguard policies and there were no safeguard issues. However, an Environmental and Social Management Framework was prepared and approved at appraisal to ensure that the project would be carried out in accordance with the Bank s safeguard policies. On positive side, the knowledge generated by the project, especially on best practices on water harvesting and agriculture knowledge base, would contribute to good practices on water resources development and use in the basin in the short- and long-run. 71. Financial Management: Throughout the life of the project, a good financial management system was maintained. The project financial management unit was staffed with skilled personnel. Quarterly Interim Financial Reports (IFR) and annual audits were done in a timely manner. All the external audit reports were unqualified. The ratings of ISRs for financial management (FM) has been satisfactory from the beginning until the closure, except around March 2012, when the FM rating was downgraded from satisfactory to moderately satisfactory for a short period when there was a delay in filling in the vacant position of FM officer of the PMU. However, this was a minor issue in the overall financial management. 21

32 The Bank conducted post-reviews of the financial management aspects periodically and reported satisfactory compliance with minor observations. The overall planning and budgeting, financial accounting system, financial reporting, preparation and submission of Interim Financial Reports, internal and external audit arrangements were found satisfactory. 72. Procurement Administration: The bulk of the project procurements were related to the selection of international consultants to carry out the various studies. The PMU reviewed and updated the procurement plans periodically. The procurement administration was delayed in the first year but subsequently picked up and maintained at satisfactory level in the last two years. Contract management and planned deliverables of the studies were closely monitored by the NELSAP-CU and the PMU. The Bank carried out a post-procurement review and no major issues were reported. Compliance with the procurement procedures and norms was satisfactory. 2.5 Post Completion Operation and Transition to Next Phase 73. There are encouraging developments as well as challenges for sustaining and utilizing the development outcomes during the post completion phase. 74. Current Progress on Post Completion Operation and for Transition: NELSAP-CU has submitted a proposal to the Bank in May 2013 seeking funds, possibly under NCORE, for the consolidation of the outputs of the RATP II and to be able to provide hands on training to the technical staff on the application and use of the knowledge bases and analytical tools developed by the project. 75. Irrigation potential studies are likely to be transitioned to the next phase of pre-feasibility level studies and there are plans to follow on the knowledge generated on irrigation potential, agriculture trade, and best practices. There are already regional and national plans to utilize this work and advance the prefeasibility studies to feasibility level studies through the newly approved Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) of the NBTF, with the long term aim of preparing future investments. At the time of preparing this ICR, the NELSAP had secured funds to undertake pre-feasibility studies to further develop irrigation sites in four countries (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda). In Tanzania, the Ministry of Agriculture has incorporated some of the potential irrigation schemes identified by the irrigation potential study into its Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor. And in South Sudan, the Japanese International Cooperation Agency is using the Irrigation Potential Study prepared by RATP II as the basis for an Irrigation Master Plan. 76. This progression demonstrates a good case example of how RATP II fits into the continuity of the previous NBTF/Bank development interventions, as it goes from irrigation development concept development under EWUAP to detailed irrigation potential reconnaissance level studies under RATP II, and from potential studies to pre-feasibility and feasibility studies for investment preparation under the new NCORE Project. 77. Challenges and Issues: However, there are several challenges that are likely to undermine the continued utilization of some of the development outcomes of this project. 78. The issues surrounding the CFA remain unresolved and consequently there is uncertainty of the transition of the NBI into a RBO or any other institutional structure in the immediate future. Although 22

33 the options for core agricultural functions and mandate of the NBI or its successor institutions have been presented to NBI Governance in July 2012, it is uncertain how and when those options might be adopted by the NBI and/or a future RBO would be useful in the immediate future. Nevertheless, the study recommendations undoubtedly would serve useful directions and guidance to the NBI and its member countries in planning and executing irrigation and agriculture activities within the basins. 79. Further funding support and additional agricultural professionals are required to calibrate and refine the agricultural model by applying it real world situations in the Basin. Additionally, the full and sustainable application and use of the agriculture model would require a maintenance contract, for which there are currently no funds available. This is one activity included in the recent NCORE restructuring proposal request from the NBI to the Bank. The NBI does not have agriculture specialists in its current staff cadre and this might be a constraint for the full application and use of the model. Possible reluctance of some countries to share new and updated data beyond the project would also be an issue. 80. The closure of the project on December 31, 2012 and absence of an exit strategy in the design has posed challenges in the post completion operation. Most of the project outputs were completed at the same time of the closing of the project. Unfortunately, the PMU did not have an additional few months beyond December 2012 to further refine and consolidate its outputs, ensure uptake and further dissemination of the knowledge products and provide hands-on training on the application of the analytical tools. The project design did not include an exit strategy to ensure the sustainable utilization of the project s development outcomes. 3. Assessment of Outcomes 3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation Rating: Satisfactory 81. The strategic issues, the objectives and expected development outcomes of the project continue to remain relevant to the NBI s vision, NBTF objectives, sectoral priorities of the NELSAP, growth and development vision and agendas of the governments and all concerned development partners of the Nile Basin countries, and the World Bank s new Great Lakes Initiative. Regional cooperation and integration, integrated and efficient water resources management, agriculture expansion, and regional trade are increasing priorities for the World Bank, particularly in the Africa region to ensure food and water security, alleviate poverty and promote growth. 82. The project outcomes and outputs are also relevant to the vision and strategic objectives of the Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA), a new development initiative in Africa established in 2011 and administered by the World Bank as a multi-donor trust fund. The CIWA aims, inter-alia, to building the evidence base, awareness, and understanding of the financial, social, environmental, and economic benefits of cooperation over water resources and support investments in water resources development to address food security issues. The knowledge generated by the project is also relevant in making strategic choices in the design of the future organizational arrangements of the NBI and/or its successor organizations. Therefore, the project objectives and development outcomes remain relevant to World Bank s development priorities for the region. 23

34 83. Project design and implementation were consistent with the project s stated objectives. The design of project components and the expected results and outputs of the components were well aligned with the stated development objectives and the sector issues. It was not necessary to change the project design during the implementation as the circumstances did not change and the operation remained important to achieving Bank, NBI and country development objectives. 84. However, there are a few generic strategic management issues recognized by the Bank and the Client during the planning, implementation and post completion operation of this project: (i) regional projects such as RATP II that engage several countries are not always recognized in the Country Partnership Strategies and their integration with the Bank s individual country programs is poor; (ii) arrangements for providing cross support from different sector management units of the Bank to the Client for multi-sectoral projects such as RATP II is weak; and (iii) arrangements within the Bank to adopt the knowledge produced by regional projects such as RATP II in the design and implementation of country specific, Bank funded investment operations are weak. Nevertheless, some recent Bank Country Partnership Strategies of the Basin countries have been highlighting in varying degrees, the importance of NBI and agriculture development and water resources planning, management and development to the long term socio-economic development of the riparian countries. 3.2 Achievement of Project Development Objective Rating: Satisfactory 85. On the whole, the project has achieved its main development objectives satisfactorily, based on the achievement of the results and intermediate outcomes as summarized in the Table 4 below. Annex 6 provides details of the achievement of the intermediate outcomes under each of the three components and eventually the achievement of the three project PDO outcomes as a justification for the satisfactory rating for achievement of the PDO. Annex 7 provides a complete list of the project s final knowledge products (Outputs) that contributed to the satisfactory achievement of the PDO. 86. Given the limited project duration, RATP II was designed to increase the knowledge base adding new knowledge and tools, but was not designed to use those knowledge/tools to influence policies, decisions making processes, and activities of the Basin. However, given the short duration the project made significant contribution to disseminate the knowledge which would have influence in the policies and operational decision in the future. For example, 350 staff were trained directly by the project, 48 experts were trained as Trainers to continue further training to the country staff, a large number of seminars were held to disseminate the knowledge products and tools among key decision making and operational levels staff of the ministries of finance, trade, agriculture of and irrigation/water resources in the ten countries, and significant knowledge has been disseminated among the private trade organizations. 87. The utilization of the development outcomes in the post-project period is promising: a. The Nile DSS has been augmented with an agricultural model and significant database that will prove useful to the NBI and its member countries as they begin to further develop the basin s agricultural potential. b. The studies on irrigation potential are already being used to plan concrete investments in at least four of the seven countries. 24

35 c. The studies on virtual water and trade in agricultural commodities have been widely disseminated and well received in all ten countries. They are already discussions, beyond the NBI, of how to expand the scope of these studies to other commodities for future planning and development. d. The knowledge of best practices is highly likely to be utilized for water resources planning and development. The study on best practices in water harvesting and smallscale irrigation produced ten (10) user friendly training manuals on water harvesting and small-scale irrigation. These manuals were further translated into French for dissemination in French speaking countries. The manuals serve as useful reference guides to any organization interested and engaged in the water harvesting and small-scale irrigation in the riparian countries. There are plans with the NELSAP-CU to deploy the 48 Trainers to train technicians in their respective countries using the manuals. 88. There is evidence of the utility and adoption of the increased knowledge products of project: The improved DSS is being used by the NBI to support water resources management decisions. A series of potential investments have been identified by some countries as a result to the agriculture trade study, which analyzed three commodity categories in five trade corridors in detail. This study has engaged nonwater decision makers (Ministries of Finance, Planning, Trade, etc., and private sector) in the water agenda of the Basin and consequently the gradual integration of these development partners in agriculture trade is already taking place. 89. The formation of the North Eastern Africa Livestock Council (NEALCO) is an encouraging unintended development of the project. It was established through support from AU-IBAR which collaborated with the Project through a working Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with NELSAP- CU. AU-IBAR also hosts the Council as one of the five pillars under the Pan African Forum for Livestock Exporting & Importing Countries (PAFLEC). This council now plans to articulate the interests of livestock traders and exporters in the region. The RATP II has also proposed a strategy for Nile Basin countries to tap the potential for livestock exports to the Gulf countries. Table 4 - Project Outcomes and RATP II Indicator Results Project Development Objective Project Outcome Indicators Status and Rating (see Annex 6 and 7 for details) To increase knowledge of Basin agriculture in Nile Basin institutions, to promote more efficient and sustainable use of water resources and economically viable investment in agriculture. Direct Project Beneficiaries. Options for NBI agricultural agenda presented to the NBI governing bodies. Satisfactory: The actual number of beneficiaries was 350 against the end of the project target of 250. Moderately Satisfactory: Options for NBI agricultural agenda presented to the NBI governing bodies, but as envisioned in the intermediate outcome indicator, no consensus on any exact option reached due to reasons beyond the control of the project. Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to increase water use productivity in Basin agriculture. Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to promote agricultural trade in the Nile Basin. Satisfactory: Analytical tools (agriculture model and agriculture trade model) developed and integrated into NBI systems and utilized by the NBI and member countries to make potential investment decisions. However further disseminations and hands on training to staff need to be conducted as post project follow up) Satisfactory: Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to NBI and the member countries and private sector partner organizations. Overall rating: Satisfactory 25

36 Intermediate Outcomes Intermediate Outcome Indicators Status and Rating (See Annex 6 and 7 for details) Component 1: Defining NBI s core agricultural functions NBI s (successor RBO s) agricultural mandate and core agricultural functions are defined. One or more options identified for core agricultural functions of NBI and successor River Basin Organization and consensus reached on roles and functions. Component 2: Supporting productive water use in Basin agriculture Agriculture is integrated into Basin Model that includes supply and demand Strategic water resource planning and blocks for Nile Basin agriculture developed management. and a plan developed for integrating it into the Nile DSS model. Utilizable knowledge on irrigation potential in Nile Equatorial Lakes is generated. Knowledge on best practices on water use for productive agriculture is documented and integrated in national agricultural programs. Agricultural data base for major crops in ten countries and one information retrieval system established and a plan developed for integrating it into the DSS. One report on water resources for irrigation produced for each of the six specified countries and disseminated through at least one workshop per country. Best practices on water harvesting and* irrigation (by past NBI projects and other organizations) documented and disseminated in the Basin. Component 3: Incorporating agricultural trade into Basin water resources management Agricultural trade issues are Agricultural trade data and information base effectively integrated into the Basin s established and integrated into the NBIstrategic water resource planning and DSS. management. Facilitating policy and investments indicated along selected transboundary agricultural trade corridors. Moderately Satisfactory: Institutional options prioritized and consensus on potential options reached by RATP II PSC. However, no consensus reached on institutional options or exact roles and functions. It is unlikely that this would happen in the foreseeable future given the current hydro-political issues surrounding the Cooperative Framework Agreement. Overall rating: Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory: An agricultural model that includes food supply and demand blocks for Nile Basin agriculture has been developed, tested by the technical experts of RATP II and DSS projects, and delivered by the closing of the project in December At the closing of the project, the model needed to be further refined and modified. At the closing, a Plan was prepared and agreed to integrate the model in to the DSS model at the closing of the Project. During the last few months after the closure of the project, it has been refined, modified and integrated into the Nile DSS. Satisfactory: Agricultural data base for major crops for the integration into DSS has been established and one information retrieval system has been established. The data base has been integrated into DSS. Highly Satisfactory: An assessment of the irrigation potential of seven Basin countries (Burundi, Kenya, RD Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) was completed and seven country-specific reports on Potential areas for irrigation development were produced. The irrigation potential studies have been validated by all the seven countries. The assessment reports provide useful information for the development of irrigation at the national, sub-basin and basin levels. Satisfactory: The study on best practices in water harvesting and small-scale irrigation produced 10 training manuals on water harvesting and small-scale irrigation that have been disseminated. Additionally, a total of 48 experts from the seven countries were trained as Training of Trainers generating the capacity to train practitioners and technicians in their respective countries using the manuals as reference guides. Overall rating: Satisfactory Satisfactory: Agricultural trade data and information base established and integrated into the NBI-DSS. Satisfactory: Eight policy briefs and several investment options plus an assessment of Trade Potential for Live Livestock to the Gulf States have been prepared and successfully disseminated. Virtual water for agriculture documented in nine basin countries and virtual water trade introduced as a tool for water resource decision making. Satisfactory: Concept of virtual water 17 in the context of Nile basin has been elaborated and analyzed, water foot prints 18 for eleven agricultural commodities 19 in nine out of the eleven Nile Basin countries 20 analyzed, documented, awareness created, and the report has been widely disseminated. The report has also been widely disseminated at regional and national workshops. Overall rating: Satisfactory 17 Virtual water is an estimate of the amount of water involved in the production of a particular product. For example, virtual water import and export is the volume of water associated with producing goods which are traded. 18 Water footprint of an individual, community or business is defined as the total volume of water used to produce the goods and services consumed by the individual or community or produced by the business. 26

37 90. Further, the Intergovernmental Agency for Development (IGAD) has already started investments in small scale water dams for livestock in one of the livestock corridors. 91. Additionally, the East African Grain Council (EAGC) has pursued the adoption of 22 commodity standards by the East African Community (EAC) Standards Council. The idea of open borders in agricultural trade is also being pursued by the EAGC. This is evident from the statement made by the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of EAGC during the last PRSC meeting in Bujumbura: now that we have evidence-based analysis results of constraints to cross border trade, we can confront our policy makers to ensure open borders on agriculture trade. Meanwhile the Horticultural Council of Africa (HCA) has undertaken to uptake investment opportunities in the horticulture sector identified in the study. 92. The virtual water concept is likely to be a major strategic tool for guiding the planning of water resources investment decisions. The study on virtual water/water footprint has generated wide interest among the stakeholders including RECs, regional commodity groups and ministries of water, agriculture and trade. With the outputs generated (See Annexes 6 and 7), there is a high likelihood that the concept of virtual water and water foot analysis would become an integral part in guiding strategic choices and decisions in agriculture and agriculture trade. 3.3 Efficiency Rating: Moderately Satisfactory. 93. As a TA project, the project did not easily lend to conventional economic and financial analysis at appraisal. The nature and extent for the longer term benefits of the projects are difficult to quantify. But the economic justification of the project lies in its role facilitating the generation and sharing of knowledge that would contribute to longer term economic and environmental benefits in addressing basin wide water resources development for sustained poverty reduction and growth. Economic benefits would result from clearly determined functions of the NBI vis-à-vis riparians in identifying and preparing agricultural investments and also more strategic investments in efficient use of water for agricultural production at the basin level. Economic benefits would also accrue from progressive regional integration, which would result in increased transboundary agricultural trade and increased productivity. Environmental benefits stem from improved management of environmental goods resulting from cooperative Nile water management and development with good practices such as water harvesting and watershed management. 94. The implementation of the project has been cost effective and efficient. The project cost at appraisal was US$7.12 million of which a Grant provided by the NBTF (US$7.0 million) and the Recipient contribution (US$0.12 million). At project disbursement closure on April 30, 2013, the total Grant disbursements were US$6.72 million, which was only US$0.28 million less than the anticipated estimated project cost at appraisal, but the project delivered all of its expected outputs satisfactorily. This includes the actual cost of miscellaneous consultancy studies and publication costs to produce the knowledge products under the first three project components (US$3.6 million); training and consultative 19 Commodities studied are maize, wheat, rice, sugar, tea, coffee, flowers, mangoes, beans, bananas, and beef. 20 Eritrea, while a riparian, is an observer member to the NBI and Eritrea was not included in the study. Former Sudan separated into two countries as Sudan and South Sudan during the implementation of the study. Therefore separate water footprint analyses for these two countries are not available, although the analysis treated Sudan and South Sudan as a single unit, namely Sudan. 27

38 and dissemination workshops related to the first three components (US$1.9 million); procurement of miscellaneous goods (U$0.097 million); and project operating costs (US$0.94 million). At this cost, the project produced very useful knowledge products including agriculture and agriculture trade data in the Basin, analytical studies, best practice manuals, operational guidelines, policy briefs and study reports and recommendations for agriculture commodities, trade and potential irrigation schemes in the Basin (See Annex 7). In addition, the project funded two additional studies 21 that were not planned at appraisal. Although the project s direct beneficiaries included 350 staff from the NBI member countries, a large number of institutions and people benefitted as outlined in sections 1.4 and 3.2, and it is difficult to quantify these indirect benefits and beneficiaries. The actual project operational cost was US$0.94 million at closure, which is 14 percent of the actual expenditure (US$6.72 million). This is reasonable for a regional project which involved the management of project across ten countries with a PMU based in Burundi, NELSAP-CU based in Rwanda, RPSC members based in the ten countries and NELTAC and NBI Secretariat based in and Uganda. 4. Assessment of Risks to Development Outcomes Rating: Substantial 95. There are substantial risks to sustaining and utilizing the development outcomes some of which are highlighted above in paragraphs The current hydro-political environment in the Nile basin may not allow a speedy progression of the NBI to a more effective governance structure such as RBO in the foreseeable future. Thus, it is unlikely that a basin organization with a clear and shared mandate and responsibility for basin water management would be in place soon. Also, it is not clear if future RBO would have a main responsibility for dealing with basin wide agriculture trade and development, because globally basin wide agriculture development and trade does not seem to be a core function of other established RBOs. However, the agriculture functions developed and presented to NBI includes a menu of several options ranging from minimal to full engagement of RBO in basin agriculture and trade and this option menu would provide flexibility to future RBO to pick up one option or hybrid of the two options. It is encouraging to note that the recently approved NCORE project plans to carry forward some irrigation potential studies completed under the project to pre-feasibility/feasibility level studies. Carrying forward the recommendations on the three agriculture commodities and five potential agricultural trade routes requires significant understanding and cooperation among the NELSAP countries. 96. The knowledge generated by the projects covering viable agriculture, water foot prints of several agriculture commodities, agriculture trade, and best practices on water management and harvesting would be very useful in the design and implementation of national development projects of the Basin countries. However, both the Sector Management Units (SMUs) responsible for the project as well the SMUs who could potentially benefit from this knowledge lack clear strategies and work arrangements to uptake and integrate the knowledge into the new upcoming and ongoing projects. Poor linkages of regional projects with Country Management Units (CMUs) of the related countries both at strategic and operational levels also would affect the integration of the knowledge. 21 The two additional studies were: (a) Gap Analysis Study and (b) Export Potential and Market Access Opportunities to the Gulf States for Live Livestock from the Nile Basin Countries, The 28

39 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance 5.1 Bank Performance (a) Bank performance in ensuring quality at entry Rating: Moderately Satisfactory: 97. The Bank s team played a moderately satisfactory role in improving quality at entry in the overall project design. The Bank s team worked actively with the NBI and partnering countries in the Phase I period and provided intensive technical inputs for the background analysis and project preparation. 98. The project was prepared within a very short period of six months during the Phase I, building heavily on the pre-project analysis, consultations and scoping done under the Phase I. However, the fast track preparation of the project resulted in a few minor shortcomings. the scope of some of the studies envisaged under the studies were not fully explained or not ready and consequently additional studies required to be conducted to clarify the scope of those studies (for example, Gap analysis to clarify the scope of the Agricultural model study); assessment of technical and procurement capacity and technical staffing needs were deficient; the roles and responsibilities of and effective working and communication arrangements between different stakeholders engaged in the project implementation were spelt out in the PAD but were not clear to the project entities at the inception; communication linkages between the other related NBI projects were not fully addressed in the PAD; underlying concepts and scope of some of the studies/outputs (e.g., virtual water and water foot print ) envisaged under the project were not adequately clarified; and strategy and program for dissemination/communication of the project outputs, such as best practices, were not spelt out. Lack of clarity on some of the underlying concepts and scope of the planned studies, and deficiencies in the evaluation of procurement and technical staffing capacity and needs gave rise to implementation delays later. 99. The Bank s team ensured that satisfactory arrangements for project execution, coordination, and oversight as well as financial management arrangements were in place by approval. However, as mentioned earlier, the Bank s management assigned a new TTL for the implementation phase of the project and this change took place immediately after the Approval. The necessity for this change at this time was not clear but it was possible for the Bank s sector management unit to allow continuity of the same TTL for a few more months to support rapid take-off of the implementation. This abrupt change caused a negative impact on the quality at entry of the project. Given the multi-sectoral, multi-country and multi-partner nature of this small TA, the change caused a significant loss of institutional memory and breakdown of working relationships and networks established between the Bank and a large number of governmental and nongovernmental partners in the Basin countries. The negative effect of this change contributed largely for the implementation delays of the project in its first year following approval. (b) Quality of Supervision Rating: Moderately Satisfactory The Bank s supervision was deficient in the first year of the project after approval in October 2009 as described above. The Bank s TTL acknowledged responsibility for the deficiencies in supervision as recorded in the Bank s aide-memoire of the first implementation review that was conducted in June 2010, eight months after approval. However, this aide-memoire was conveyed to the 29

40 NBI several months after the June 2010 mission. The preparation of the first ISR was significantly delayed. The communication and interactions between the Bank, NELSAP-CU, and the PMU during this period was deficient and this lapse largely contributed to the implementation delays. The Bank s management noted this status and took action to change the TTL, but it took almost one year from approval to make the change The Bank s project supervision inputs intensified after September 2010 and sustained at satisfactory levels until the closure after the change-over of the TTL in October Quality of supervision during the last two years of the project was satisfactory. The Bank team was proactive in several areas of supervision. The Bank s team reestablished the communication links and networks, clarified areas of ambiguity on the concepts and scope of the studies, provided useful technical and operational guidance for shaping the TORs of the studies and speeding up procurement activities. These inputs were provided on time. A case in point was the intervention of the Bank s team to guide the PMU and other implementing agencies to develop several potential institutional options for the future RBO under the agriculture functions study, rather than having a single agriculture mandate, reflecting the political climate and risks with the NBI. The Bank s team also recommended timely action to hire additional consultants whenever required and reviewed and adjusted the project budgets periodically The Bank conducted regular supervision missions, six in total including the MTR, and once every six months on average. All the missions were scheduled to coincide with timing of the RPSC meetings, which seem to have been beneficial for both the Bank and high level staff of the client teams to interact and exchange views on important technical and operational matters. The aide-memoire was succinct; especially the last four aide-memoires were easily comprehendible, structured to focus on results in line with the PDO and the intermediate outcome indicators of the project components. The supervision missions recommended appropriate actions to overcome implementation delays and issues, and tracked and reported the level of compliance of the actions agreed at the previous review mission with actual dates of compliance by the Client. The Client s Project Completion Report recognized the important guidance and contribution made by the Bank s team or the project success during the last two years. Bank s supervision of the Client s compliance with legal covenants and fiduciary aspects has been satisfactory. However, the effectiveness or lack of effectiveness of the project steering committees, M&E, and the interaction between the NBI, ELSAP-CU, the PMU and the related NELSAP countries in the implementation of the project was not clearly documented in the aide-memoires and the ISRs The Grant closing date was extended by two months until December 30, 2012 to allow sufficient time to complete and disseminate the studies. The decision for limiting the extension to two months is understandable because NBTF was scheduled to be closed in June 2013 (meaning all NBTF finance projects should close in December 2012) and it was uncertain if the closing date of the NBTF would be extended. While the NBTF Committee later decided in October 2012 to extend the closing date of the NBTF by two years until June 2015, the NBTF Donors stipulated that all on-going projects be closed by December 2012 and that NCORE be the only recipient executed activity thereafter. (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance: Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 104. While the Bank performed satisfactorily in most aspects, it overlooked several important project design and preparation aspects which affected the project implementation later and affected systematic 30

41 uptake and adoption of the knowledge and smooth transition to post completion phase as outlined in the preceding sections. Absence of an exit strategy to ensure sustainable use of the project outcomes demands additional efforts for further dissemination and hands on training on the tools, and integrate the knowledge and the recommendations systematically into concurrent and upcoming programs and projects. The Bank s supervision in the last two years (which accounted for two thirds of the project period) was satisfactory and contributed to satisfactory completion of the project, but the quality of supervision in the first year (which accounted for one third of the project period) was unsatisfactory. Considering these positive and negative aspects, the overall Bank s performance on both the quality at entry and the quality of supervision are rated moderately satisfactory, and consequently overall Bank Performance is rated moderately satisfactory. 5.2 Grantee Performance (a) Government (NBI) Performance: Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 105. The project preparation has been guided and benefitted from the active interventions by several stakeholders and other measures: Timely request of the NBI to the Bank for Grant support to carry out scoping studies and background work to prepare this project to address its strategic issues and concerns; A detailed project implementation manual was prepared and the Regional Project Steering Committee (RPSC) and the PMU was established before the project started; The RPSC was mandated to meet on a bi-annual basis but by the project ten RPSC meetings were held, more than anticipated; the RPSC played an effective and critical role in guiding the project implementation, reviewing and approving work plans, budgets and study reports and facilitating implementation of project work at the national level; Inputs and guidance from NELSAP-CU and NELTAC were satisfactory and these entities played a lead role in supervising and guiding the project implementation and maintaining functional linkages with the project stakeholders; The NELSAP-CU and the RPSC have successfully mobilized and engaged several RECs in the project; and The PMU implemented the project with sufficient staff and with satisfactory monitoring, work planning, monitoring, quality control (including the use of external peer reviewers), and budget management. (b) Implementing Agency (NELSAP/PMU) Performance: Rating: Satisfactory 106. Implementation Partnerships: The partnerships established with the RECs (EAC, COMESA, IGAD, AU-IBAR) and RCGs (such as EAGC, HCA) were beneficial in generating synergy, avoiding duplication of efforts, advocating the project concepts and facilitating and supporting the implementation 31

42 of the project activities, and enhancing post-project sustainability of the project outcomes. Most of the NLOs were instrumental in supporting study consultant teams and project staff to access relevant ministries and other organization at country level, organizing meetings, national consultations, providing guidance and facilitation in data collection and participating in national awareness creating workshops Data collection for the Major Studies: The PMU and NELSAP-CU were successful in carrying out data collection, consultations and dissemination amidst unforeseen developments during the implementation. For example, in August 2010, Egypt and Sudan froze their official participation participating in project activities consequent to unforeseen development of tensions surrounding the CFA. NLOs from Egypt and Sudan participated actively in the Project until August 2010 but ceased official participation in project activities thereafter. Although this situation was outside the control of NBI and the project implementation entities, that the freezing of official participation resulted in the final outputs being largely non-inclusive of those two countries This situation resulted in difficulties in collecting data, consultations, conducting workshops and other project related activities in these two countries, especially in conducting Cross Broader Trade and Virtual Water/Water Foot Print studies. The project management adopted innovative ways to implement activities in these countries. In the end, the project collaborated with Nile Basin Discourse (NBD), which mobilized local civil society to organize local meetings, training, and data collection exercises in Egypt. However, Sudan was not included during the virtual water study. The formation of South Sudan as a new country during the project implementation also brought implementation challenges. Eventually the NBI facilitated formal membership of South Sudan in the NBI and appointment of a NLO to participate in the project activities Financial Management: The financial management has been satisfactory throughout the project implementation period, except during a short spell, due to delay in filling in vacant position of Financial Management Specialist, which was overcome soon by the PMU. Additionally, the internal and external audits were conducted regularly and audits were concluded with unqualified audit opinions; project fiduciary team has been well experienced; quarterly IFRs as well as external audit reports were produced on time; satisfactory accounting system had been maintained with regular updating of general ledger, preparation of bank reconciliation statements on monthly basis, and updating of fixed asset register on annual basis, and completing Bank s recommendations at the regular implementation review missions on time. The PMU prepared and submitted revised budgets to each of the Bank s supervision missions, which was a good practice Procurement Administration: The procurement administration somewhat suffered in the early months following the Grant effectiveness in December The NELSAP-CU was able to overcome initial procurement capacity deficiencies with the training facilitated by the Bank s team and accelerate the procurement processing during the implementation. The PMU updated the Procurement Plan on annual basis. All procurements were carried out as per the provisions of the Grant Agreement. The ISR ratings for procurement administration progressively improved from unsatisfactory from the start to satisfactory and maintained at that level until the closure. Compliance with the procurement norms, standards and procedures was satisfactory. 32

43 111. Other: The PMU submitted annual work plans and progress/m&e reports regularly and in sufficient coverage and quality, the M&E provisions of the Grant Agreement were complied with satisfactorily. (c) Justification of Overall Grantee Performance: Rating: Satisfactory 112. The primary Grantee is the group of NELSAP countries. Overall, all the NELSAP countries were actively engaged in the project preparation, implementation, coordination and oversight. Overall the NELSAP-CU, PMU, NELTAC, and NELTAC performed their responsibilities and functions effectively as outlined above leading to the satisfactory achievement of the development objectives. The collective effort of these stakeholders contributed strongly to the generation and dissemination of the outputs at satisfactory level. Despite political issues, Egypt and Sudan showed a considerable interest in technical work, especially in the discussions and studies related to water foot print and agriculture trade corridors and the dissemination of the related reports. The NELSAP-CU and NELTAC are actively following up with the Bank and other stakeholders for integrating and utilizing the knowledge products with regular development operations of the NBI in the countries. 6. Lessons Learned 113. The preparation, design and implementation experience of this project leads to the following lessons that are useful for the future design and implementation of the projects, especially regional projects. For regional projects that require intensive engagement of the Bank team with a large number of diverse stakeholders from different countries, it is crucially important to ensure continuity during the transition from preparation to project implementation. Failure to do so might result in negative effects on the implementation readiness conditions and rapid project take-off due to possible loss of institutional memory and working relationships between the Bank and the Client, which are crucial for the efficient implementation of such operations. Regional projects with strong technical assistance content and that requires the participation and engagement of multi-sectoral, multi-country and multi-partner stakeholders would benefit from a three phased approach: Phase I for consensus and awareness building and scoping and design; Phase II for project implementation; and Phase III for consolidation of the outcomes, post completion operation and transition to next stage. The project design should include a wellarticulated exit strategy, additional time and resources to ensure uptake and sustainable use of the development outcomes. This is particularly important in a project with significant technical component like the Agricultural Model and DSS, as these require not only time for design and implementation, but also user training and modification based on real-world use. Both the Bank and the Client countries would greatly benefit from a clear strategy and firm institutional arrangements to: (a) integrate regional projects into country partnership strategies of the countries of the region; (b) ensure linkages between the regional projects and country specific projects funded by the Bank during planning and implementation; (c) provide cross support from Bank s various sector management units for the design and implementation supervision of multi- 33

44 sectoral TA projects; and (d) ensure uptake and integrate knowledge produced by the regional TA projects in the design and implementation supervision of country specific operations, led by the same SMU or other SMUs. This is a strategic management issue for the Bank. This project has demonstrated the merits and benefits of engaging major private sector stakeholders in generating and adopting knowledge and tools that would influence water resources planning and management in a river basin context. It also has demonstrated the use of the concept of virtual water in understanding social and economic implications of allocation of basin water for agriculture and agriculture trade across the basin. It would be useful to deepen this line of analysis and to replicate this experience in other major river basins too to better understand the role of agriculture and agriculture trade in shaping and influencing the decisions on integrated water resources management in basin context. 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners 114. The NBI submitted its own Project Completion Report in December It was comprehensive in coverage and quality and candid in its assessments. Based on the Completion Report, it is clear that RATP II outputs and potential outcomes are valued by the NBI and its member countries. By and large there are no major deviations of the assessment of progress, outcomes, challenges and ratings between the Bank ICR and the Client s project Completion Report. The Executive Summary of the Report is attached to this ICR as Annex 8. There are no major issues raised in the Project Completion Report that requires a response from the Bank. 34

45 ANNEX 1 NELSAP REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT-PHASE II Project Costs and Financing (a) Project Cost by Component (in US$) Components 1. Defining NBI s core agricultural functions 2. Supporting productive water use in Basin agriculture 3. Incorporating agricultural trade into Basin water resources management 4. Project management and Monitoring and Evaluation Appraisal Estimate (US$ million) Estimate at MTR (US$ million) Actual /Latest Estimate (US$ million) Percentage of Appraisal % % % % Contingencies % Total Project Costs (NBTF grant) % In-kind Contributions % (b) Financing Source of Funds Type of Financing Appraisal Estimate (US$ million) Actual/Latest Estimate (US$ million) Percentage of Appraisal Governments In-kind contributions % NBTF Grant % 35

46 ANNEX 2 NELSAP REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT PHASE II Details of Project Components Component 1: Defining NBI s core agricultural functions (total appraisal budget US$0.64 million actual expenditures US$0.28 million): The intermediate outcome: NBI s (successor RBO s) agricultural mandate and core agriculture functions are defined. The intermediate outcome indicator is: One or more options identified for core agricultural functions of NBI and successor River Basin Organization and consensus reached on roles and functions. This component included a detailed stand-alone study to propose an agricultural mandate and core agricultural functions for NBI (and it s successor River Basin Organization). Component 2: Supporting productive water use in Basin agriculture (total appraisal budget US$2.12 million actual expenditures US$2.50 million): The Component 2 included three intermediate outcomes and related intermediate outcome indicators as follows (three stand-alone studies generated the three outcomes): Intermediate Outcome 1: Agriculture is integrated into Basin strategic water resources planning and management. Intermediate Outcome Indicators are: Model that includes supply and demand blocks for Nile basin agriculture developed and a plan developed for integrating it into the Nile Basin DSS model. Agricultural database for major crops in ten countries and one information retrieval system established, integrated into DSS, and functioning. Intermediate Outcome 2: Utilizable knowledge on irrigation potential in Nile Equatorial Lakes is generated. Intermediate Outcome Indicator is: One report on water resources for irrigation produced for each of the six specified countries and disseminated through at least one workshop per country. Intermediate Outcome 3: Knowledge on best practices on water use for productive agriculture is documented and integrated in national agricultural programs. Intermediate Outcome Indicator is: Best practices on water harvesting and irrigation (by past NBI projects and other organizations) documented and disseminated in the basin Component 3: Incorporating agricultural trade into Basin water resources management (total appraisal budget US$1.48 million actual expenditures US$1.62 million). The intermediate outcome: Agricultural trade issues are effectively integrated into the Basin s strategic water resource planning and management. Intermediate Outcome Indicators are: Agricultural trade data and information base established and integrated into the NBI-DSS Facilitating policy and investments indicated along selected transboundary agricultural trade corridors Virtual water for agriculture documented in ten NBI member countries and virtual water trade introduced as a tool for water resource decision making The Component 3 originally included two standalone studies: Analysis of cross-border trade in agricultural products along selected corridors of the Nile Basin region; and virtual water/ water footprint for comparative advantage, production and trade in Nile Basin countries. However, a new study was added later during the implementation consequent to a decision taken by the RPSC in consultation with the project stakeholders, incusing RECs and RCGs, which is entitled Export potential and market access opportunities to the Gulf States for live livestock from the Nile Basin countries. Component 4: Project management and Monitoring and Evaluation (total appraisal budget US$2.44 million actual expenditures US$2.32 million): This component supported the overall operation and management of the project, facilitated the engagement of the Regional Project Steering Committee, and provided for dissemination of project outputs. 36

47 ANNEX 3 NELSAP REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT PHASE II RATP II Links to other NBI Projects at Appraisal 1. Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP) approved in 2008, aims to develop a basin-wide institutional framework for water resources management in the Nile basin, but it does not have explicit focus on water use for productive agriculture. An important task of the RATP II was to fill this gap by defining potential core agricultural functions of the NBI and/or its future permanent successor organization, consistent with the institutional architecture which was emerging from the ISP. 2. Water Resources Planning and Management Project (WRPMP) approved in March 2009, aimed to design, develop and operationalize a Nile Decision Support System (DSS) a basin-wide analytical tool to guide strategic decisions for Nile basin water resources planning and management. While the development of the DSS was making good progress, several knowledge gaps constrained its full development and effective application. Firstly, irrigation development potential of the riparian countries was not fully known by the NBI and the riparian countries. Secondly, the basic data and information on agricultural sector at basin level, both irrigated and rain-fed, still needed to be collected for strategic choices and investment decisions. It was realized that the utility of the DSS would be limited without basic agriculture data being incorporated in the model, because the DSS model would not be able to: (a) represent the agriculture water usage in the Nile Basin fully; (b) estimate cumulative impact of irrigation investments on water resources at the basin level; (c) assess impact of climate change on agricultural production and water use in productive agriculture; and (d) iterate impact of water development costs on the economic viability of emerging investments in the basin. The RATP II was aimed to fill these knowledge gaps. 3. Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Productivity Project (EWUAP), completed in June 2009, collected the best practices in water harvesting and on small-scale and large-scale irrigation practices in the Nile Basin countries. The objective was to apply this knowledge wide the basin for improving water use efficiency. It was not felt necessary to collect and develop further knowledge on other best practices on land and water resources management and disseminate in the Basin countries. At the time of the design of RATP II, the EWUAP had completed two studies identifying and recommending potential for irrigation development in Lake Victoria, Tanzania. These two studies sparked the interest of the other countries and the NBI to expand similar studies to explore irrigation potential in the remaining Basin countries. The RATP II picked up this need in its design. 4. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Nile Project, completed in June 2009, began to collect baseline data of irrigated and rain-fed agriculture and promoted a comprehensive approach to the irrigation development in the region. It was necessary to carry forward these efforts to prepare investments in new irrigation developments in the future. The RATP II included provisions to continue the collection of data, 5. Socio-economic Development and Benefits Sharing Project (SDBS), completed in June 2009, supported the local institutions to undertake research on trans-boundary issues in the basin, where regional agricultural trade and food security received the large attention. However, the basic data required to evaluate trade-offs in investing in agriculture versus hydropower and other activities related to water use were not available. The RATP II had explicit focus on addressing agriculture trade potential and issues. 37

48 ANNEX 4 NELSAP REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT PHASE II Bank s Lending and Implementation Support Process (a) Task Team members Names Title Responsibility/ Specialty Lending Sergiy Zorya Senior Economist Task Team Leader IJsbrand de Jong Senior Water Resources Specialist Team Member Evarist Baimu Legal Counsel Project Lawyer Henry Gordon Senior Economist Team member Aissatou Diallo Disbursement Officer Disbursement Ladisy Chengula Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist Environmental Safeguards Mary Bitekerizo Senior Social Development Specialist Social Safeguards Otieno Ayany Financial Management Specialist Financial Management Chantal Kajangwe Procurement Specialist Procurement Antoinette Kamanzi Procurement Assistant Procurement Rogati Kayani Procurement Consultant Procurement Mari-Caludine Fundi Language Program Assistant Team Member John Lazier Consultant (CIDA Financed) CIDA Monitor Yulia Grigorieva Team Assistant Team member Supervision John Bryant Collier Operations Officer Task Team Leader (SEP10-JUN13) Henry Gordon Senior Economist Task Team Leader (DEC09-SEP10) Sameer Ahmed Kamal Operations Analyst Team Member Ashok Subramanian Consultant Team Member (Mid-term Review) Grace Nakuya Musoke Munanura Senior Procurement Specialist Procurement Bella Lelouma Diallo Senior Financial Management Specialist Financial Management Jean Owino Finance Analyst Disbursement Zaure Schwade Resource Management Analyst NBTF Fiduciary oversight Andrew James Roberts Senior Operations Officer Regional Integration Oversight Thembi Kumapley Program Assistant Team Member Dawit Tadesse Mekonnen Program Assistant Team Member Nihal Fernando Sr. Water Resources Specialist ICR Lead Author John Lazier Consultant (CIDA Financed) CIDA Monitor 38

49 (b) Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of Staff Weeks Bank Budget US$ Thousands (including travel and consultant costs) Staff Time and Cost No. of Staff Weeks Nile Basin Trust Fund US$ Thousands (including travel and consultant costs) Lending FY FY TOTAL: Supervision/ICR FY FY FY FY TOTAL

50 ANNEX 5 NELSAP REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT PHASE II Reassessment of Project Risks Risks Risk Mitigation Measures Proposed at Appraisal Rating with mitigation To PDO Nile cooperation stalls and NBI Secretariat provides support to Nile-COM on CFA issues, resolution of outstanding not the RATP II. RATP II is designed to minimize dependence issues on CFA is delayed or upon agreement and ratification of the CFA. If delays persist, if CFA is signed, subsequent RATP II can still fulfill important objectives, improving NBI ratification and funding the preparedness or future core functions. Information and River Basin Organization knowledge to be generated by RATP II would also create a M (RBO) that succeeds the more favorable environment for eventual operationalization of NBI delayed the signed CFA. Inadequate engagement and support by key agricultural stakeholders for the NBI process (relevant riparian government bodies, NLOs, the DSS, and private sector organizations) To Component Results Ambitious project agenda and limited capacity create a high risk that project accomplishment is partial Location of the PMU in Bujumbura makes it difficult to work on regional trade The project will engage the NBI and country-level stakeholders through the meetings of the RPSC, national and regional consultations, workshops, and participation in the regular NELSAP and NELCOM meetings. Country level activity will be coordinated by the NLOs. Coordination with other NBI projects and activities is explicitly built into the RATP II design. The successful performance of the project during the inception phase and focus on specific, well-defined analytical tools will mitigate the risk. The project will also build on information collected by past NBI projects, and collaborate with existing NBI projects. The use of the existing regional networks will bring about further positive results. The strongly staffed PMU and extensive use of experienced consultants will ensure timely delivery of the expected results. The PMU will be staffed with the project officer, dealing directly with trade issues of the project. Sufficient budget is allocated to allow coordination and travel in the region. L M M Assessment of Risks at Project Closing There are continuing delays in the resolution of issues on CFA. The progress towards the decisions regarding NBI s successor organization has got delayed. Consequently, the knowledge generated by the project on core functions on future RBO is not utilizable at present, but once the CFA issues are resolved, will be valuable for taking decisions on the nature of the RBO. The risk rating continues to be Moderate. The engagement and support by key agricultural stakeholders remained satisfactory during the implementation and as a result the project was able to deliver most its outputs on time and satisfactorily. Indeed, the project two additional studies one on regional livestock and trade opportunities in the middle east as a recommendation from these consultations. The risk remained Low. Although the project agenda looked ambitious, the project was able to deliver its outputs due to training of procurement staff, satisfactory engagement of the stakeholders and project implementation management by the NELSAP-CU supported by effective supervision from the World Bank team. The risk was Low.. Location of the PMU in Bujumbura did not delay the project implementation as expected at appraisal. The risk remained Low. 40

51 Risks Risk Mitigation Measures Proposed at Appraisal Rating with mitigation Weak connections to the Links with national programs will be facilitated by national programs arrangements already in place under previous operations. Members of the RPSC, NLOs, and Bank field staff will ensure L Riparian countries unable to reach consensus on data sharing Mixed roles of various regional institutions create a difficulty in coordinating activities with regional economic communities and other regional organizations Weak procurement capacity may impede project implementation Weak financial management capacity may impede project implementation collaboration, sharing of information, and results. The riparian countries have already agreed to share data according to the MOU signed under the Nile Basin DSS. The project has been building ownership of RECs to the project (in particular EAC and COMESA), in particular those activities prepared and implemented under component 3. The ISP will be instrumental in clarifying the roles and responsibilities between the NBI and other regional organizations, for example the Lake Victoria Basin Commission RATP II will rely on the procurement staff of the NELSAP-CU, which is currently being strengthened by the ISP. RATP II PMU will also hire the procurement consultant to mitigate risks, ensure quality and allow timely procurement. RATP II will rely on the financial capacity of the NELSAP-CU, which is being strengthened by the ISP. RATP II PMU will hire FM support staff to ensure the compliance with the PIM and Bank rules. L L H M Assessment of Risks at Project Closing The linkage of the project with national programs was not weak due to the use of existing arrangements involving RPSC and NLOs. The risk rating remained Low. The project did not serious constraints in sharing Data required for the delivery of its outputs. The risk remained Low. Although the project implementation demanded different roles of different implementing stakeholders, their commitment and engagement in the project implementation remained satisfactory. The project coordination and oversight also remained satisfactory. The risk remained Low. Weak procurement capacity delayed the project implementation in the initial period of the first year. But due to the timely intervention by the bank team to provide intensive procurement training to project staff was helpful to overcome capacity issues and speed up the procurements and deliver the contracts on time. The risk remained Moderate. Financial management had been satisfactory except for a short period during its implementation (moderately satisfactory) due to delay n filling in the vacancy of financial management specialist of the project. The risk remained Low. Overall risk L L H = High Risk greater than 75 percent probability that the outcome/results will not be achieved; S = Substantial Risk greater than percent probability that the outcome/results will not be achieved; M = Modest Risk greater than percent probability that the outcome/results will not be achieved; and L = Low Risk greater than 25 percent probability that the outcome/results will not be achieved. 41

52 ANNEX 6 NELSAP REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT PHASE II Detail Analysis of the Achievement of the Project Development Objective 1. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to increase knowledge of Basin agriculture in Nile Basin institutions, to promote more efficient and sustainable use of water resources and economically viable investment in agriculture. The project outcome indicators are: Options for NBI agricultural agenda presented to the NBI governing bodies; Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to increase water use productivity in Basin agriculture; Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to promote agricultural trade in the Nile Basin; Direct Project Beneficiaries (added at the MTR). 2. The following analysis presents the details of the achievement of the intermediate outcomes under each of the three components and eventually the achievement of the three project PDO outcomes as a justification for the satisfactory rating for achievement of the PDO. Results indicator 1: Options for NBI agricultural agenda presented to the NBI governing bodies. 3. Component 1 (Defining NBI s Core Agriculture Functions) was meant to deliver this result with the following output indicator. Achievement of this result is satisfactory. Intermediate Outcome Indicator: Identify one or more options for core agriculture functions of NBI and successor RBO and reaching consensus on roles and functions. 4. The achievement of this intermediate outcome is moderately satisfactory. A comprehensive analysis on agriculture agenda was completed. This analysis was based on a synthesis of core functions of other functioning river basin organizations, review of national and regional agricultural policies, analyses of the draft CFA in terms of agriculture functions, stakeholder consultation, and a basin study tour by the senior NBI staff. This analysis produced a stand-alone report outlining proposed framework, agriculture functions and implementation options for a future river basin institution have been produced. The study defined what the core agricultural functions should be and proposed two institutional options and three operational models for each of institutional options. The two options proposed are: Option 1: to maintain, strengthen and turn the current NBI to a permanent institution; and Option 2: to establish a Nile River Basin Commission based on the draft CFA. The three operational models are: (i) Reactive Model: that focuses on the management of basin water, essentially making sure there is sufficient water in the system to satisfy the needs and/or rights of various water users and mitigate conflict; (ii) Pro-active model: in which the future institution plays an explicit role in promoting increased agriculture development in the basin; and (iii) Development Model: that promotes broad based socio-economic development across the basin. The recommendations have been reviewed and endorsed by NELSAP-CU and NELTAC, presented to the NBI governing body, and disseminated among the NBI member countries. 42

53 5. The utility of Core Agriculture Functions (CAF) report extends beyond the NBI as it stands as a useful guide for River Basin Organizations globally to help understand and integrate agriculture functions in their overall mandates and responsibilities. This topic was highly relevant to the theme of World Water Week (WWW) 2011 held in Stockholm in which the link between food security and water resource management was widely discussed and emphasized. The CAF is being used by the NBI and SAPs as a guiding document for Agricultural interventions. 6. However, with the current hydro-political issues with the CFA, the timing for the establishment of CFA and transition of NBI to a longer term permanent successor institution is uncertain. This situation has prevented the NBI s governing bodies in reaching consensus on the core agriculture functions of the NBI and its successor RBO. In this environment, the actual utilization of some of the development outcomes at strategic levels, especially the options for core agricultural functions of the NBI or its successor institutions, would be uncertain in the foreseeable future. Results indicator 2: Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to increase water use productivity in basin agriculture. 7. Component 2 (Supporting Productive Water Use in Basin Agriculture) was meant to deliver this result with the following four output indicators. Based on the achievement of the four intermediate outcomes as outlined below, the achievement of this result is satisfactory. Intermediate Outcome Indicator 1 (Revised at MTR): Model that includes supply and demand blocks for Nile Basin agriculture developed and a plan developed for integrating into the Nile DSS Model. 8. The original indicator was to accomplish the full integration of the agriculture model into the DSS Model. The achievement of the original intermediate outcome is moderately satisfactory, although the project achieved the revised outcome satisfactorily at the closure. 9. An agricultural model that includes food supply and demand blocks for Nile Basin agriculture has been developed, tested by the technical experts of RATP II and DSS projects, and delivered by the closing of the project in December At the closing of the project, the model needed to be further refined and modified. A Plan was prepared and agreed to integrate the model in to the DSS model at the closing of the Project. During the last few months after the closure of the project, it has been refined, modified and integrated to the Nile DSS by the DSS team of the NBI Secretariat. The achievement of the original development outcome is satisfactory at the time of the preparation of the ICR. Intermediate Outcome Indicator 2 (Revised at MTR): Agricultural database for major crops in ten countries and one information retrieval system established, and a plan developed for integrating into the Nile DSS Model. 10. The original intermediate outcome was to complete the full integration of the agriculture data base into the DSS model. The achievement of this intermediate outcome is satisfactory. 11. Agricultural data base for major crops in ten countries as necessary for the integration into DSS has been established and one information retrieval system has been established. The data base has been integrated into DSS. However, the coverage of the data base is less than as envisaged in the final TOR prepared for this task. The preparatory studies conducted during the phase I provided the details of nature 43

54 and sources of the required targeted agricultural data for crop production, food demand and trade, and TOR for the task. But the TOR adopted for the study during the implementation included an expanded and comprehensive data base, which was found very ambitious and difficult to accomplish. But the essential data has been collected and the data base has been satisfactorily established. Intermediate Outcome Indicator 3 (Revised at MTR): One report on water resources for irrigation produced for each of the seven specified countries and disseminated through at two regional validation workshops one after each phase. 12. The original intermediate outcome was to complete the dissemination through at least one workshop per country. Both the achievement of the original intermediate outcome and the revised intermediate outcome were satisfactory, because the regional workshops were successful in achieving the intended dissemination and validation of the products. The achievement of this intermediate outcome is highly satisfactory. 13. An assessment of the irrigation potential of seven NBI member countries (Burundi, Kenya, RD Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) was completed seven country-specific reports on Potential areas for irrigation development were produced. This study identified areas that have a potential for irrigated agriculture and completed an in-depth analysis of a maximum of 4 to 5 specific irrigation schemes in each of the seven target countries. This study was conducted based on preliminary technical and socio-economic review and first order cost-benefit analysis, and it identified and recommended 34 potential irrigation schemes to be further studied at pre-feasibility level. Based on this analysis, reconnaissance level studies were prepared for five sites in each country, and the results were shared with relevant ministries. The irrigation potential studies have been validated by all the seven countries. Output Indicator 4: Best Practices on water harvesting and irrigation (by past NBI projects and other organizations) documented and disseminated in the Basin. 14. Achieving this intermediate outcome is highly satisfactory. 15. The study on best practices in water harvesting and small-scale irrigation produced ten (10) user friendly training manuals on water harvesting and small-scale irrigation. These best practices on water harvesting and small scale irrigation conducted by past NBI projects and other organizations have been disseminated in the basin. Additionally, In addition, a total of 48 experts from the seven countries were trained as Training of Trainers generating the capacity to train practitioners and technicians in their respective countries using the manuals as reference guides. Results Indicator 3: Analytical tools developed and information disseminated to promote agricultural trade in the Nile Basin. 16. Component 3 (Incorporating Agriculture Trade into Basin Water Resources Planning) was meant to deliver this result with the following three intermediate outcome indicators. Based on the achievement of the three intermediate outcomes, as outlined below, the achievement of this result is satisfactory. Intermediate Outcome Indicator 1: Agricultural trade data and information base established and integrated into NBI-DSS. 44

55 17. The achievement of this intermediate outcome is satisfactory. 18. At the closure of the project, agricultural trade data and information base had been established but the integration of the data base into NBI-DSS is not complete. However, by the closure of the project, a plan had been developed for completing this end result. As of the ICR mission in May 2013, the integration of the trade base has been completed. The analysis of cross-border trade and collection of data and information focused on five trade corridors of three categories of agricultural commodities namely, grains and pulses; fruits and vegetables; and trans-boundary livestock (cattle, goats and camels). The trade data base covers the five trade corridors and the virtual water/water footprints. This study identified information on production constraints and impediments on cross border trade for those commodities, recommended three high value agriculture commodities and five potential agricultural trade routes, and proposed policy measures and investments to improve agricultural cross border trade. It has been widely disseminated. Intermediate Outcome Indicator 2: Facilitating policy and investments indicated along selected transboundary agricultural trade corridors. The achievement of this intermediate outcome is satisfactory. 19. Eight policy briefs and several investment options have been prepared and successfully disseminated. An additional output on assessing Trade Potential for Live Livestock Products to the Gulf States has been completed. The study report elaborated on export potential from the Nile region to Gulf States, potential investments to address the constraints to trade in the Nile Basin, and outlined a strategy to for strengthening the capacity of regional commodity groups, notably, EAGC and Horticultural Council for Africa (HCA). The study also analyzed the involvement of youth and women (gender dimensions) in agriculture trade. An unintended but a useful outcome under this sub-component was the formation of the North East Africa Livestock Council (NEALCO) with facilitation of AU-IBAR which had a working memorandum of understanding with RATP II. AU-IBAR now hosts the NEALCO secretariat and has seconded a full time staff to manage it. Intermediate Outcome Indicator 3: Virtual water for agriculture documented in ten NBI member countries and virtual water trade introduced as a tool for water resource decision making. 20. The achievement of this intermediate outcome is satisfactory. 21. Concept of virtual water 22 in the context of Nile basin has been elaborated and analyzed, water foot prints 23 for eleven agricultural commodities 24 in nine out of the eleven Nile Basin countries 25 analyzed, documented and awareness created among riparian countries, and the report has been widely disseminated in the countries. The report has also been widely disseminated at regional and national workshops. For example, awareness creating was conducted in eight countries including Egypt. 22 Virtual water is an estimate of the amount of water involved in the production of a particular product. For example, virtual water import and export is the volume of water associated with producing goods which are traded. 23 Water footprint of an individual, community or business is defined as the total volume of water used to produce the goods and services consumed by the individual or community or produced by the business. 24 Commodities studied are maize, wheat, rice, sugar, tea, coffee, flowers, mangoes, beans, bananas, and beef. 25 When the project began, the NBI had nine member countries the addition of South Sudan brought that number to ten. Sudan separated to Sudan and South Sudan during the implementation of the study, and therefore separate water footprint analysis for these two countries are not available, although the analysis treated Sudan and South Sudan as a single unit, namely Sudan. Eritrea, while a riparian, is an observer to the NBI and, as such, was not included in the study. 45

56 Regionally, the report was launched in Nairobi, Kampala and Kigali. The report generated a lot of interest in the region and beyond. 22. Concrete illustrations of this concept in Nile basin environment developed and virtual water for agriculture documented in nine Basin countries and virtual water trade introduced as a tool for water resource decision making. One important output from this study is a training manual that Virtual Water/Water Footprint Analysis. About 268 regional staff, regional organizations (EAGC, HCA, AI- IBAR COMESA; EAC; etc.) have been on the concept and application of the concept. Additionally, eight policy briefs for policy advice and strategic action for benefit sharing among the Nile Basin countries were produced as part of the outputs for the virtual water/water footprint in a number of topics (See Annex 2). 23. Additionally, the project has created a wider awareness among the NBI, riparian countries and the RECs and RCGs on the strategic role of agriculture trade in virtual water and how agriculture trade can be planned and promoted as a means to improve basin water use efficiency, besides its profitability gains. The project has established close linkages between the NBI and RECs and RCGs which would be important for planning and managing basin water resources in the future. Most of the knowledge products would be highly utilizable in the water resources planning and management and the preparation and implementation of investment projects both at strategic and technical levels. Results Indicator 4: Direct Project Beneficiaries 24. The project s direct beneficiaries are about 350 staff (against the target of 250) at policy making and operational levels of the ministries of the agriculture, irrigation/water resources, finance and trade of the ten NBI member countries. 25. However, there are a large number of other stakeholders indirectly benefitted by the project and the number of beneficiaries as well as the nature of the benefits cannot be quantified. Those include: (i) at the international level: other River Basin Organizations (RBOs) and development partners would benefit from the planned dissemination of selected knowledge products. These products would provide different options on the role of RBOs in basin-wide agricultural development, agriculture trade, and integrated water resources planning and management; (ii) at the regional level: all the Nile Basin Institutions (including a future RBO), would benefit from a DSS model enriched with comprehensive data and information on irrigation and agriculture, different options for engagement in the agricultural and irrigation sectors; along with various analytical tools such as the virtual water/water footprint and commodity corridor studies; (iii) at the national level: concerned sector ministries of all the NBI member countries would benefit from knowledge on the country s irrigation potential, agriculture sector, and options for regional agriculture trade; and (iv) at the local level: communities, farmers cooperatives and water users associations, and development partners, including nongovernmental agencies (NGO), would benefit from the knowledge on best practices on efficient water management through water harvesting and irrigation. 46

57 ANNEX 7 NELSAP REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT PHASE II List of Project Outputs 1. Component 1 - Defining NBI core Agricultural functions 1.1. NBI Core Agricultural Study: Proposed Framework, options and Functions for a NBI River Basin Commission Agricultural Agenda (English and French) March A Brief on the results of a NBI Core Agricultural Functions Study with proposed framework, options and functions for a NBI /Nile Basin Commission Agricultural Agenda 2. Component 2 Supporting Productive Water Use in Basin Agriculture 2.1. Assessment of Irrigation Potential in NEL Riparian Countries (Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda) Phase 1(Project Preparation Phase Reports) Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Main Report, November 2011 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Annex: Burundi, November 2011 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Annex: Eastern DR Congo, November 2011 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Annex: Kenya, November 2011 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Annex: Rwanda, November 2011 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Annex: South Sudan, November 2011 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Annex: Tanzania, November 2011 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Annex: Uganda, November 2011 Phase 2 Reports (Dissemination materials for Phase 2 includes investment notes for each 34 irrigation scheme identified) Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Final Report, July 2012 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Final Report-Appendix Burundi, July 2012 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Final Report- Appendix DR Congo, July 2012 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Final Report-Appendix Kenya, July 2012 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Final Report-Appendix Rwanda, July 2012 Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, 47

58 Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Final Report- Appendix South Sudan, July 2012 Final Report: Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Final Report-Appendix Tanzania, July 2012 Final Report: Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Final Report-Appendix Uganda, July Promotion of Best Practices on Water Harvesting and Small Scale Irrigation Manual No. 1 - Runoff harvesting for crop production: Practical solutions for dry land agriculture Manual No. 2 Rainwater harvesting from open surfaces with storage in structures Manual No. 3 Water harvesting and storage within valleys Manual No. 4 Agronomic Practices for water management under smallholder rainfed Agriculture Manual No. 5 Soil and Water Conservation Structures for smallholder agriculture Manual No. 6 Developing Groundwater and Pumped Irrigation Systems Manual No.7- Irrigation Best Practices for Smallholder Agriculture Manual No. 8- In-Field Water Management in Irrigated Agriculture Manual No. 9 Management of Waterlogged Agricultural Lands Manual No. 10 Participatory Operation and Maintenance of Irrigation Schemes 3. Component 3 Incorporating Agricultural Trade into Basin Water Resources and Management 3.1. Virtual Water - Water Footprint Virtual Water/ Water Footprint for Comparative Advantage, Production & Trade in the Nine Nile Basin Countries, Vol. 2, Consultancy Study Report, Abstract of Final Study Report - Water Footprint, Virtual Water & The Nile Basin Training Manual - Virtual Water/ Water Footprint for Comparative Advantage, Production & Trade in the Nine Nile Basin Countries, Vol. 1 Consultancy Training Report Research Policy Briefs (total eight) entitled: How to calculate a water footprint. (Annual, perennial crop; beef) The water footprint of rice in the Nile Basin.(Key messages GA (9); DDA Kenya & Tanzania Water footprint of wheat & wheat Imports. Water footprint of cash crops the producer perspective. Productivity, comparative advantage and opportunities for trade. The importance of green water use in production. Water footprint in hot climate. Engaging with Corporates around water footprint 3.2. Cross Border Trade Corridors Analysis of Cross-border Trade in Agricultural Products along Selected Corridors of the Nile Basin Region., 2012 (English and French). Research Policy Briefs (total four) entitled: Methodology for estimating structure and nature of marketing costs of different actors along a value chain in trade corridors. 48

59 Production and trade of selected fruits & vegetables along the Kenya, Uganda, D.R. Congo, Rwanda, Burundi corridor. Production & trade of maize, rice and beans along the Tanzania Kenya Uganda South Sudan; and the Tanzania - Burundi Eastern DR Congo corridors. Production and trade of live livestock in the Nile Basin Regional Commodity Groups Eastern Africa Grain Council EAGC - Facilitation and Participation in the Analysis, Proposed Uptake and Sustainability of Cross Border Trade in Grains & Pulses along Selected Corridors Horticultural Council for Africa - Integrating the Horticultural Council for Africa in the Nile Basin Initiative s Analysis and Sustainability of Cross Border Trade in Fruits & Vegetables along the Selected Corridor African Union Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources -The Constitution of the North Eastern Africa Livestock Council (NEALCO), Livestock Export Potential to the Gulf The Study of Export Potential and Market Access Opportunities to the Gulf States for Live Livestock from the Nile Basin Countries, 2012 (Additional study not envisioned at appraisal) 49

60 ANNEX 8 NELSAP REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT PHASE II NBI S Project Completion Report (Front cover, pages and executive summary only) NILE BASIN INITIATIVE NELLSAP/REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY PROJECT Project Completion Report December