The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: emissions

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1 This is the corrected version as of 1 March 2013 where the unit in the caption of Table S-3 was corrected from Tg to Gg. The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: emissions Z Klimont 1, S J Smith 2 and J Cofala 1 1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. 2 Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Md klimont@iiasa.ac.at SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL General Background The terrestrial emissions estimates presented here for the years 2000, 2005, and 2010 are estimated using the global version of the GAINS model. These estimates are intended to be an independent estimate of emissions, although this work is also complemented by country-level data where this is judged to be reliable (particularly for process emissions). Annual emissions were estimated starting with detailed data from these key years using the methodology described below. While these estimates for 2000 and 2005 are similar to the estimates from Smith et al. (2011), as shown in figure 2 of the main text, it should be noted that the Smith et al. estimates were developed using a separate methodology. The Smith et al. methodology was developed to estimate annual emissions over the time period and, except in a few cases (e.g. Turkey), does not use GAINS data. The Smith et al. estimates also were calibrated to country level inventories where these were judged to be reliable. This longer time series will be updated, building on the work reported on in this paper, at a later date. Annual Emissions Extrapolation Annual emissions from 2000 through 2011 were estimated based on the detailed emission estimates from GAINS for the key years 2000, 2005, and Combustion-related emissions for each country in the GAINS estimate were first aggregated by fuel (coal, petroleum, natural gas, biomass) for these key years. An effective, aggregate emissions factor was developed by dividing by the corresponding fuel consumption from the British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy (BP 2012), which compiles reported energy consumption out to We interpolate this aggregate emissions factor annually for each fuel category, and multiply by reported fuel consumption. For emissions from biomass fuel consumption, population estimates from the United Nations (UN 2012) were used. Process emissions were linearly interpolated between the key years, with the 2005 to 2010 trend used to extrapolate to The estimate for 2011 should, therefore, be considered preliminary since energy consumption data for this year is subject to change and only an extrapolation of recent trends in aggregate emissions factor are used. Year 2011 shipping emissions were conservatively assumed to be the same as 2010 emissions for purposes of estimating a 2011 global total. 1

2 GAINS/UNFCCC The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: emissions While this procedure is approximate, it captures the overall trend in emissions by representing both the change in aggregate emission factors over these periods along with changes in fuel consumption. Regional Emissions Details Figure S-1 compares the annualized emission estimates to country level inventory estimates. The country level emissions estimates are taken from the UNFCCC, except for Australia, Canada and the United States, where the latest estimates from the respective environmental agencies are used due to lack of data or errors in the UNFCCC database. 2.0 Australia 2.0 Belarus Year Bulgaria Czech Republic Greece Italy Japan Poland Turkey USA Year Figure S-1. Ratio of the annualized GAINS estimate to country-level emission inventories. Only countries with estimated emissions larger than 100 Gg SO 2 in 2000 and 2010 are shown. Overall, the GAINS estimates are close to the country inventories. Outliers, with differences larger than 50%, are countries with particularly uncertain or inconsistent inventory data, including Turkey and Romania (where GAINS is higher), and Belarus and Bulgaria (where GAINS is lower). GAINS is likely lower than the inventory estimate reported for Japan due to treatment of international shipping emissions (not included at the country level in the GAINS estimate). The variance between GAINS and the country inventory data increases as we go from 2000 to This is not surprising and is due to both greater uncertainty in more recent data, and also country-level adjustments to GAINS assumptions (e.g., on implementation of additional control measures) that may need to be updated. See Smith et al. (2011) for a further discussion and comparison between different SO 2 emission estimates. Table S-1 and table S-2 provide regional and sectorial distribution of global SO 2 emissions in the period 1990 to We present here a longer time series to put the changes in the last decade in the perspective of evolution of emissions prior to In the concerned period, significant changes in regional allocation of emissions, i.e., reduced contribution of North America (US & Canada) and Europe and a strong increase of the role of Asia (table S-1). In the 1990, North America and Europe (including Russian Federation and EECCA countries) were responsible for over 50 percent of total SO 2 emissions while in 2010 their share dropped to less than a quarter and Asian emissions represent more than half of the total. The sectorial landscape has been changing too, with power plants (included in energy sector in table S-2) France Germany Romania Spain Ukraine United Kingdom Canada 1 The estimation of emissions for the period from 1990 to 2000 originates from the GAINS model except for international shipping, which is estimated as discussed below. 2

3 and residential sector reducing their contribution and industry and international shipping increasing their importance (table S-2). Table S-1. Regional emissions of SO 2 from 1990 to present; Tg SO 2 Region Africa China India Middle East Other Asia & Pacific Europe a) EECCA b) Russian Federation Latin America & Caribbean US & Canada International shipping Global a) Excluding EECCA and Russian Federation b) Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) includes countries of Former Soviet Union except Russian Federation and former Baltic Republics (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) that are part of the European Union. Table S-2. Sectorial emissions of SO 2 from 1990 to present; Tg SO 2 Sector Energy sector Residential Industry Transport Waste International shipping TOTAL Figure S-2 provides an expanded version of figure 2 from the main text showing the present estimate in the context of the estimated global evolution of emissions from 1970 through While the new RCP scenarios are consistent with this estimate (Figure 2, main text), the SRES scenarios, which were developed using data available up to about 1998, substantially underestimated the global decline in sulfur dioxide emissions from 1990 to

4 Emissions (Tg SO 2 ) The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: emissions 160 Global Anthropogenic Sulfur Emissions This Study Edgar 3.2 SRES Smith et al. (2011) EDGAR 4.1 EDGAR Year Figure S-2. As figure 2 of the main text but with additional data series added and extending back to 1970 for further context. For details on previous inventory data shown in this figure see Smith et al. (2011). Gridded emissions We have gridded emissions of SO 2 for 2000, 2005, and 2010 (0.5x0.5 degree) using the set of sectorial proxies developed within the Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012). The proxies are consistent with the ones used for gridding the RCP projections as described in Lamarque et al. (2010) (respective netcdf files can be downloaded from but also consider changes in population distribution, effectively making them year specific (GEA 2012; see chapter 17). The RCP emissions are provided (including gridded layers) for 11 key categories: energy, industry, residential, transport, agriculture, agricultural open waste burning, waste management, international shipping, aviation, and savannah and forest fires. The spatial allocation of RCP emissions was developed using information (compiled primarily by EDGAR group) about location (where available) of power plants, larger industrial complexes, rural and urban population, road networks, etc. and processed by EDGAR to create gridding proxies for the key RCP sectors listed above with exception of international shipping, aviation, and open biomass burning for which Eyring et al. (2010), Lee et al. (2009), and GFED_v2 (van der Werf et al. 2006) were used, respectively. In this work we use additional information to spatially allocate GAINS emissions. To grid emissions from oil and gas production (flaring) we have developed a new gridding layer drawing on the data from Elvidge et al. (2007). Emissions from cropland burning (or agricultural open waste burning) were distributed using GFED_v3.1 ( information. Further, since the calculation in the GAINS model is performed at a higher spatial resolution than in models used in the RCP process, i.e., typically countries or even at a subnational (provincial) level for several Asian countries, e.g., China and India, the regional (and sub-regional) features of the emission distribution are included throughout the estimation period. 2 This reduces any effects of downscaling, with the spatial distribution of emissions reflecting regional source strengths and their changes. 2 While the base-year 2000 SO 2 emissions distribution used in the RCP process was estimated at the country level (Smith et al. 2011), emissions for subsequent decades are calculated by integrated assessment models at a level of regions, which were then downscaled to a grid level. 4

5 A global map of 2010 land based emissions of SO 2 is presented below and gridded emission fields (as netcdf files) for 2000, 2005, and 2010 are available at request from the authors. Figure S-3. Anthropogenic land-based emissions of SO 2 in 2010, gridded by 0.5x0.5 degree; GAINS model. Petroleum Mass Balance As an additional check on the emissions estimate, the global petroleum sulfur mass balance from Smith et al. (2011) was extended to The total sulfur content of crude oil was estimated by multiplying crude oil by country by the reported sulfur content of crude from that country, where countries without a reported sulfur content value were assigned a regional average. Sulfur removal at refineries was estimated from byproduct sulfur production from petroleum refineries reported by USGS Sulfur Yearbooks ( ). The emissions implied from this mass balance are shown in figure S-4. While global crude oil consumption increased by 8% from 2000 to 2010, sulfur remaining in combusted oil products was estimated to decrease by 8% due to increased sulfur removal at refineries. The estimate of global emissions from combustion of petroleum products plus emissions from refineries from this work is also shown. The new estimate is close to the Smith et al. (2011) values and is also consistent with emissions implied by global mass balance. The close correspondence between the new GAINS estimate and the Smith et al. (2011) estimate is somewhat fortuitous (and there are regional differences) given that different methodologies were used for the two estimates. The emissions implied by the mass balance calculation imply a decrease in petroleum emissions of 3,000 Gg SO 2 from 2000 to 2005, and an essentially negligible decrease of 600 Gg between 2005 and The inventory estimate is 4-6% lower than the mass balance estimate for these years. While this difference is well within the uncertainties of these estimates, this could also imply that global emissions from petroleum products could be slightly higher than estimated in the inventory. International shipping emissions, in particular, have substantial uncertainty, however, and now comprise an estimated 40% of global emissions of sulfur from petroleum combustion and refineries. 5

6 Sulfur as SO 2 (Gg) The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: emissions 60,000 Global Sulfur Emissions From Petroleum , , , ,000 10,000 Emissions Uncertainty S Emissions Petr (Smith etal 2011) Pet Mass Bal-10%ret Pet Mass Bal-5%ret This Work Year Figure S-4. Global sulfur emissions from petroleum and products (black squares) from this work along with a global petroleum sulfur mass balance. Emissions implied from the petroleum mass balance are shown for two different assumptions of the total amount of sulfur retained in products that are not combusted. Also shown is the previous estimate of Smith et al. (2011) out to 2005 along with the uncertainty estimate for the Smith et al. (2011) emissions from petroleum (grey band). The estimate from this work is the sum of three components: GAINS estimates of emissions from combustion of petroleum products, GAINS estimates for process emissions from refineries, and estimated emissions from international shipping. Shipping Emissions Total emissions of sulfur dioxide emissions from shipping were estimated starting with the estimate of Eyring et al. (2010) for the year 2000 of 11,078 kt SO 2 together with their estimate of total shipping fuel consumption from 2000 through Fuel consumption for 2008 through 2010 was assumed to scale with total goods landed (UNCTAD 2005, 2006, 2011). The ratio of fuel consumed to goods landed was taken to be the average of this ratio for 2000 through 2007 (excluding 2005 due to missing data). There is no trend in this ratio over this period. The fraction of residual fuel used was estimated from bunker fuel sales statistics reported by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) 3, which currently extend to 2010, combined with International Energy Agency (IEA) data on fuel consumed by domestic navigation and fishing, also to As noted in Smith et al. (2011), the sum of EIA reported bunker fuel sales and IEA domestic navigation and fishing is close to the total fuel consumption estimated by Eyring et al. (2010), being only 4% smaller in This value, therefore, appears to be a good estimate of the fraction of residual fuel used in shipping operations (and overall shipping fuel use in general). The sum of EIA reported bunker fuel sales and IEA domestic navigation and fishing figures is within 2-6% of our estimated total fuel consumption from , lending confidence to our extrapolation. We find that the fraction of residual fuel has not changed substantially in recent years, with an estimated 64% of international bunker fuels by weight consisting of residual oil in 2008 and 2009 and 61% in A few points of missing bunker fuel sales data were extrapolated by assuming values equal to the most recent Downloaded 10/21/12. International Energy Agency/Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (IEA/OECD) Energy Statistics and Balances, International Energy Agency, Paris,

7 year with reported data, notably residual fuel in Thailand and Panama in 2008, Russia from 2006 to 2010, and Chile in 2007 and Bunker fuels are reported in only two categories: residual and other fuels. A significant uncertainty, however, exists for the composition of these other fuels consumed by shipping activities. This fuel is, presumably, some combination of heavy fuel oil and distillate oil. While shipping emissions are dominated by the residual oil component, this still adds uncertainty to the overall estimate. The sulfur content of bunker fuels was assumed to be constant over time at 2.9% for residual fuel and 1.25% for other fuels (estimated by matching the Eyring et al. (2010) emissions estimate value for 2000). These values are not only uncertain but also could have changed over time. In order to construct a consistent estimate of global sulfur dioxide emissions, we need to subtract the portion of emissions that stem from domestic navigation and fishing, which are included already in the GAINS estimates for these sectors. We, therefore, subtract fuel use from these sectors as reported in the IEA energy statistics in order to obtain an estimate for international shipping emissions only. Total Emissions The table on the next page (table S-3) gives our total emission estimate by geographic entity and year. References BP 2012 BP Statistical Review of World Energy June bp.com/statisticalreview Elvidge Ch D et al A Twelve Year Record of National and Global Gas Flaring Volumes Estimated Using Satellite Data. Final Report to the World Bank, NOAA, Boulder, CO. Eyring V, Isaksen I S A, Berntsen T, Collins W J, Corbett J J, Endresen O, Grainger R G, Moldanova J, Schlager H and Stevenson D S 2010 Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping Atm. Env GEA 2012 Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. Lamarque J-F, Bond T C, Eyring V, Granier C, Heil A, Klimont Z, Lee D, Liousse C, Mieville A, Owen B, Schultz M G, Shindell D, Smith S J, Stehfest E, van Aardenne J, Cooper O R, Kainuma M, Mahowald N, McConnell J R, Naik V, Riahi K and van Vuuren D P 2010 Historical ( ) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application Atmos. Chem. Phys Lee D S, Fahey D W, Forster P M, Newton P J, Wit R C N, Lim L L, Owen B, Sausen R 2009 Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century Atmos. Environ Smith S J, van Aardenne J, Klimont Z, Andres R, Volke AC and Delgado Arias S 2011 Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: Atmos. Chem. Phys United National Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Review of Maritime Transport 2011 (ISBN ). United National Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Review of Maritime Transport 2006 (ISBN ). United National Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Review of Maritime Transport 2005 (ISBN ). van der Werf G R, Randerson J T, Giglio L, Collatz G J, Kasibhatla P S and Arellano Jr. A F 2006 Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004 Atmos. Chem. Phys

8 Table S-3. Total emissions of SO 2 from by geographic entity; Gg SO 2 Country/Area China 24,210 24,064 24,615 27,487 30,670 32,413 33,262 32,617 31,229 31,023 29,854 29,065 East Asia (Rest of) Japan Republic of Korea Southeastern Asia (Rest 1,488 1,497 1,493 1,459 1,511 1,469 1,440 1,470 1,442 1,467 1,458 1,451 Thailand 1,247 1,156 1, Indonesia 1,277 1,341 1,400 1,522 1,543 1,604 1,620 1,691 1,556 1,584 1,641 1,619 India 5,674 5,742 5,971 6,131 6,576 6,852 7,186 7,744 8,377 9,056 9,508 10,149 South Asia (Rest of) 976 1,002 1,026 1,007 1,078 1,089 1,193 1,302 1,340 1,382 1,401 1,404 Australia & NZ 1,438 1,509 1,490 1,566 1,563 1,523 1,505 1,454 1,402 1,272 1,312 1,271 Central Asia 1,914 1,811 1,813 1,910 1,955 1,983 2,066 2,144 2,188 2,122 2,097 2,066 Asian FSU Russian Federation 5,928 5,941 6,032 6,206 6,234 6,206 6,041 5,676 5,481 4,943 4,651 4,408 Ukraine+ 1,522 1,486 1,392 1,358 1,264 1,152 1,260 1,295 1,357 1,263 1,375 1,560 Baltic States EU-15 6,168 5,802 5,521 5,174 4,848 4,501 4,081 3,757 3,163 2,625 2,317 2,052 Western Europe (Rest of) Central Europe (Rest of) 5,060 5,024 4,815 4,832 4,620 4,319 4,138 3,939 3,659 3,144 3,025 3,036 Turkey 1,804 1,506 1,507 1,523 1,522 1,462 1,594 1,649 1,559 1,513 1,431 1,396 Northern Africa 1,234 1,213 1,236 1,244 1,257 1,294 1,216 1,204 1,170 1,105 1, Other Africa 1,234 1,310 1,368 1,416 1,498 1,568 1,647 1,739 1,851 1,933 2,053 2,144 South Africa 2,444 2,397 2,430 2,530 2,598 2,522 2,554 2,677 2,820 2,708 2,750 2,795 Middle East 5,035 5,020 5,075 5,222 5,316 5,275 5,358 5,460 5,580 5,602 5,656 5,629 Brazil 1,340 1,290 1,219 1,155 1,138 1,104 1,090 1,114 1,135 1,092 1,142 1,127 South America (Rest of) 1,333 1, Central America 2,116 2,125 2,130 1,998 2,036 2,086 2,126 2,192 2,270 2,336 2,502 2,575 Mexico 2,500 2,301 2,047 1,931 1,781 1,660 1,478 1,345 1, Canada 2,301 2,337 2,288 2,215 2,244 2,294 2,187 2,156 2,103 1,979 1,927 1,851 United States 15,269 14,610 14,282 14,193 14,012 13,829 12,530 11,513 10,166 8,215 7,537 6,278 Intl Shipping 9,756 10,035 9,962 10,236 11,061 12,017 12,545 12,832 13,579 12,864 13,621 13,621 Global Total 106, , , , , , , , , , , ,609 8

9 Gains Region to Summary Region Correspondence (Alphabetical by Summary Region) Summary-Region Asian FSU Australia & NZ Baltic States Brazil Canada Central America Central Asia Central Europe (Rest of) China Gains Region Asian FSU Australia New Zealand Estonia Latvia Lithuania Brazil Canada Other Latin America Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Macedonia (FYR) Montenegro Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia China Summary-Region East Asia (Rest of) EU-15 India Indonesia Japan Mexico Middle East Northern Africa Other Africa Republic of Korea Russian Federation South Africa Gains Region DPR Korea Mongolia Taiwan (China) Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom India Indonesia Japan Mexico Israel Middle East Northern Africa Egypt Other Africa Republic of Korea Russian Federation South Africa Summary-Region South America (Rest of) South Asia (Rest of) Southeastern Asia (Rest of) Thailand Turkey Ukraine+ United States Western Europe (Rest of) Gains Region Argentina Chile Bangladesh Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Afghanistan Bhutan Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Lao (PDR) Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Viet Nam Thailand Turkey Belarus Republic of Moldova Ukraine United States Cyprus Iceland Malta Norway Switzerland 9